Week 11 Picks

We've reached the final week where fantasy owners have to worry about bye weeks (also couldn't come at a better time for the Giants). For those who are playing, the playoff picture will continue to clear up and become more convoluted at the same time.

Miami (+2.5) over BUFFALO

I got this game wrong but never posted a piece previewing the game Thursday. Let's just say that the Bills get to stay in the fringe of the AFC playoff race, and dragged the Dolphins with them.

Arizona (+9.5) over ATLANTA

Something about playing at home makes for close games for the Falcons. Plus, this game has great late-cover potential by the Cards. Have to grab the points.

Tampa Bay (-1) over CAROLINA

Yes, the Panthers aren't awful and have played a lot of close games, but the Bucs have done the same and have figured out how to win games in the last few weeks. Their offense is outstanding with Doug Martin (who in my eyes is the Offensive Rookie of the Year at this point) and Vincent Jackson has helped make the passing game more dangerous.

DALLAS (-8) over Cleveland

November is generally the Cowboys time of year where they play their best. I can't see a team coached by Pat Shurmur challenge them.

Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT

This is probably the season for the Lions. It's too bad that they must face Aaron Rodgers and Co today. Rodgers has had the Packers on a mission since the loss in Indianapolis. Lions only chance to win is to hope the bye week cooled off the team.

Jacksonville (+14.5) over HOUSTON

The Texans will win, but they could be looking ahead to the Lions on Thanksgiving. Plus, the Jaguars play better on the road than at home.

Cincinnati (+3) over KANSAS CITY

Oh Chiefs, that was as good a chance as they were going to have for a win last week (plus it would have made the AFC playoff race completely wide open). Bengals just gave the Giants a whooping last week, if they want back in the playoffs, they can't take a step back here today.

ST LOUIS (-3.5) over Jets

Steven Jackson came off his best game of the season in that awful tie. Meanwhile, what hasn't been said about the Jets this week. If the Jets had a better team, I could buy into them coming together and winning this one. Too bad they aren't.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Philadelphia

Too many people started getting down on RGIII for their losing streak (unfair, I might add). A bye week probably does them good, and getting the Eagles, who seem to be playing out the string and with a QB who's more likely to get teed off because of that offensive line, also helps.

OAKLAND (+5.5) over New Orleans

This one will be close; the Saints aren't in the dome and the Raiders are a better home team. Carson Palmer should play well (likely will commit some turnover to lose it in the end though).

Indianapolis (+9.5) over NEW ENGLAND

I have no idea how to pick Pats games. Their defense is so easy to throw against and Andrew Luck has been hot. One thing you can be sure of: bet the over. This will be a shootout.

San Diego (+7.5) over DENVER

Are the Broncos really going to finish this year 13-3, winning their last 11 in a row? My instinct says no. This is more about the Chargers looking to show if they have anything left for Norv Turner.

Baltimore (-3) over PITTSBURGH

The Ravens have reasserted themselves as they adjusted to life without Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb. The Steelers probably could do the same without Ben Roethlisberger, but it won't happen the first week he's out.

Chicago (+4.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Now this is a classic MNF matchup! Defense and lots of it is the order. With Jay Cutler out and Alex Smith likely shelved as well, you will see some ugly QB play by Jason Campbell and Colin Kaepernick. Taking the points here mainly because I expect a touchdown by the Bears defense more so than the Niners.

Last week: 7-7
This week: 0-1
Season: 74-69-3