Week 3 Picks

I hate to disappoint everyone, but there will be no video this week, as Tiffany's camera was broken. Thus, it will just be my Week 3 picks that will be the purpose of today's post. Not a lot of time until the games start, so let's get started.

Home teams listed in CAPS

CINCINNATI (-3) over San Francisco: Home opener today for the Bengals, who actually look halfway decent. Andy Dalton is competent under center and A.J. Green has already made people forget about Chad Ochocinco. As for the Niners, they were so close to 2-0 in both their home games, before giving up the game to Dallas. Now they have to play an early game. Don't like them today.


New England (-7.5) over BUFFALO: My heart says pick the Bills. When that happens, I try to see how much my head will overrule my heart. In this case, I can't allow myself to pick against the Pats. They might make an example out of the Bills today.


Houston (+4) over NEW ORLEANS: I really don't know the flaw for the Texans, except at head coach. But, that's a flaw that wouldn't show up until later in the season, not September. Saints defense will have their hands full with the Texans offense, that's why I'm going against them at home.


PHILADELPHIA (-9) over Giants: Looks like Michael Vick is going to play. If it was Mike Kafka, I can make the case that the Giants pass rush would avoid the Eagles from completely exposing the major weakness in the secondary. Not happening with Vick, unless he's a turnover machine today.


Miami (+3) over CLEVELAND: This is off the board at Bodog, but I'm using this line here. For the Dolphins, we need to see if they can win road games like they did last year. For the Browns, we need to know if they are any good, or that the Colts are that brutal. I'm going with the former.


Denver (+7) over TENNESSEE: I wish I know how in the world the Titans beat the Ravens last week. Meanwhile, the weight of the world on Kyle Orton's shoulders got a little lighter after last week's win and now that he's on the road, I think the Broncos will play looser. As for Tennessee, I see a letdown, unless of course, Chris Johnson actually plays some downs.


Detroit (-3.5) over MINNESOTA: So we're all agreed; any line that's close, go against the Vikings, but if it's over 7, then pick them. If football games ended in the first half, the Vikings will have a chance to go undefeated. Now being serious, the Lions should handle the Vikings pretty easily; they are that much better.


CAROLINA (-3.5) over Jacksonville: Only chance the Jaguars have is if Blaine Gabbert in his rookie debut can throw like Cam Newton did. I mean, if Cam Newton's going to throw over 400 yards against the defending champs, he can do the same today, right? I'm going wrong, because he won't need to throw in the fourth quarter, so by design, his passing will go down. I'll love Monday though if they win and Cam has only 320 yards and the reaction is he failed everyone.


SAN DIEGO (-15) over Kansas City: The Chiefs are horrific. The injuries have ruined their own season and now my fantasy season is in major jeopardy because of Jamaal Charles season ending injury. I hated having to pick up Thomas Jones on the waiver wire. Chargers should win easily.


OAKLAND (+3) over Jets: I know the last time the Jets were in Oakland, they cruised to a 38-0 blowout, which allowed for Mark Sanchez to have a celebratory hot dog. This time, the Raiders are better and the Jets just don't play well in Oakland, going all the way back to the Heidi Game. Expect a lot of running and some payback by the Raiders defense to the Sanchise.


Baltimore (-6) over ST. LOUIS: I don't expect another bad game from the Ravens. The Rams, though, will continue to lose these games because they find ways to shoot themselves in the foot against teams up a class. Still will be alive for the NFC West even when they go 0-7 before their bye. Brutal opening schedule, no NFC West games early.


Atlanta (+1) over TAMPA BAY: Here are two teams we just don't know about yet. Both were handled pretty easily in Week 1 (though the Tampa score didn't indicate it), both needed comebacks in Week 2 to stay level. Now in Week 3, who's for real? Who's fake? Are they both fake? Today, I'm going to ride Matt Ryan, even though I should be riding the Bucs for a whole number of reasons personally. As a matter of fact...


TAMPA BAY (-1) over Atlanta: Because I have Josh Freeman in fantasy, along with Mike Williams and the fact there's a Bucs NFC Championship ticket in my house and I can't have them lose many more. Done.


SEATTLE (+3.5) over Arizona: There will be games I won't take the points in a Seattle home game. It just won't happen when they play the NFC West. None of the 3 teams will be good enough to win at Qwest Field, unless no one shows up.


Green Bay (-4.5) over CHICAGO: Think the Bears are more like the team we saw in Week 2 than in Week 1. The Packers should control this game, maybe the score will be tight at the end, but not 3 or 4 points, at least I hope. Green Bay will eventually have to answer questions about their defense, but Jay Cutler won't be the one asking those questions.


Pittsburgh (-11) over INDIANAPOLIS: Couldn't NBC flex this game out? We don't need until Week 10 to know what games don't belong on primetime. At least two games I see getting flex out late this year (Pittsburgh-Kansas City and Indy-NE as hard to believe that will be) with both Giants games an interesting discussion if they don't play well early on here. As for the game, nothing needs to be said.


Washington (+5) over DALLAS: Tough finding a line for this one, but two reasons I'm picking against Dallas. First, uncertainty with Tony Romo, even if he plays. Second, because Dallas cost me big last week in that OT. James Holley goes 77 yards to the 1 yard line and anyone who had Dallas -3 knows that the field goal meant a push. Hoping the Cowboys would at least try to run it in, instead Jason Garrett sends out the FG unit on 1st down and wins the game. So yes, I'm still mad and will be ready for Rex Grossman to ruin the Cowboys home opener.


Last week: 9-6-1
This Season: 15-15-2