Wild WR Day

Today saw three moves made on the eve of NFL free agency that will impact the market for WR's and show how the NFC West is now the top division in football. The Seahawks traded for Percy Harvin of the Vikings for a couple picks this year and one next year, as reported by Jay Glazer. One of those picks was Seattle's first rounder for this year.

Since Jim Harbaugh is physically incapable of allowing Pete Carroll to get the upper hand, the 49ers trade for Anquan Boldin from the Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens, who finally figured out how they will handle a potentially rough situation. Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun is reporting that San Francisco gave up just a sixth round pick for Boldin. Seems like the 49ers made the better pickup since Boldin is a better WR (at least more of a classic WR) and Harvin has injury issues. Still, after picking up Mario Manningham last year, I'm already wondering which WR San Francisco will pickup from whichever team beats them in the playoffs next year.

Still, the NFC West continues to show signs that it's far from being the worst division in the NFL like it was as recently as two years ago and now it might officially be the best division in the league. Especially after the Rams improved by leaps and bounds last year without a great offense. As for the Cardinals, all they need is a QB and an O-Line and they could be good.

The other takeaway from today is how the WR market is heating up. Greg Jennings is among biggest names at WR when free agency starts Friday and expect many teams to get involved in the bidding. Wes Welker and Mike Wallace will also garner plenty of attention; Wallace in particular I expect will leave the Steelers. Once those three sign, eyes will focus on Victor Cruz, who's a RFA and has a first round tender. The Giants seem to be indicating that there is a ceiling on how much they will pay Cruz, which doesn't shock me at all since the Giants have a number for every player they have and when someone exceeds that number, the Giants find someone new to take the spot and the transition becomes seamless. Just note that the Vikings now have two first rounders, both of which are in the 20s; should they not sign Jennings, Welker or Wallace, there's a fit with them and Cruz. Still think Cruz will remain a Giant, but I'm already preparing myself for the day we grab the draft pick.

NFL Free Agency tends to be a whirlwind day of transactions and it's happening as we get into Championship Week in college basketball and starts during what should be an epic showdown at Camp Nou as Barcelona will try to rally against AC Milan. This week just keeps getting better and better.

Super Bowl Preview

There's not much else to be said for today's Super Bowl between the Ravens and the 49ers. We will see the Harbaugh brothers match wits against one another. We will see the last game of Ray Lewis' career (no more deer antler spraying for him). Ed Reed will play in his first Super Bowl. Randy Moss try to win his first Super Bowl, despite not being the same player he was when he played in his first one 5 years ago to the day. Colin Kaepernick looks to go from unknown backup to Super Bowl champion in a quicker span than Tom Brady did (though not a quickly as Jeff Hostetler did, at least during a singular season). Joe Flacco will try to solidify a giant payday after this game (though Neil O'Donnell's awful Super Bowl didn't stop the Jets from giving him huge money, which makes their interest in JaMarcus Russell no surprise)

It's been a great run for the Ravens, reminds me of the Giants Super Bowl runs. The difference between the two Super Bowl runs is the Giants defense was a little more dynamic than the Ravens are at this point and the 49ers have a more difficult to defend offense than the Patriots in my eyes because they are dangerous both on the ground and through the air. Too much read option for the 49ers will do it. San Francisco wins 31-20 and turns the Bay Area into the next Titletown America.

Championship Sunday Preview

The best day of the football season and on the short list of the best days of the sports year take place on today as both the NFC and AFC Championship Games take place. At a more optimum time, I will have a list of what are the best sports days of the year, but for now, the focus will be on the field. We've come off the heels of an outstanding NFL Divisional Round which the 49ers and Patriots showed us the best we can see in terms of offense and how many "HOLY $#!T" moments we saw in the Ravens and Falcons victories. And we are really desperate for real sports to occur after Manti Te'o and Lance Armstrong dominated our sports news this week. The Heat's win over the Lakers finally put the focus back on the field of play and the NHL FINALLY began its season and made the ice the focus. Today, we'll only be focused on Atlanta and Foxboro.

San Francisco at Atlanta. Spread: 49ers by 4

You see this spread correct, the Falcons are home underdogs in the NFC Championship game. This has happened before, last occurring back two years ago when the Packers were favored over the Bears. I don't think that Atlanta will lose close and cover, thus the spread shouldn't be a factor in my pick here. It seems to me that the Falcons have one chance to win this game and that's with a quick start on offense. Barring a particularly sloppy game by the 49ers where they turn the ball over too many times, drop passes and kill themselves with penalties, the Falcons would be better served if they can have their offense strike quickly. The biggest factor in Atlanta's favor is playing home in the dome and the way that building can be best utilized if getting an early lead and having the crowd in the game all day long. The other thing about an early lead is that the Falcons can then run the football. Now, Atlanta isn't very good at running the ball, but a good start for Matt Ryan might open up the running lanes and a lead will allow a more balanced offense; something that you must try to have against the San Francisco defense.

Last week, the 49ers put an absolute clinic on how to run an offense in 2012 as Colin Kaepernick seemed to have perfected the read-option that Jim Harbaugh has installed there. He threw a pick-six in the early going last week and I don't think anyone remembers that. Another thing that's been clear is Michael Crabtree has a more prominent role in the offense now with Kaepernick at QB. Now, I wouldn't expect a repeat of last week's performance because I'm sure the Falcons won't get beat repeatedly by both the passing game and running game. However, the 49ers defense won't have as bad a game as they had last week now that they aren't facing an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.

I don't think this spread is an overreaction to a great win for the 49ers last week; this team has been destined to go to the Super Bowl since Week 1. I really don't see an overrated Falcons team standing in their way, no matter where the game is being played.

San Francisco will win 30-17.


Baltimore at New England. Spread: Patriots by 8

Instead of Brady vs Manning, we get a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game as the Ravens have snuck back in. This is the first rematch since 1994 when the 49ers finally got the best of the Cowboys, and the first in the AFC since 1987 which saw The Fumble. History isn't on Baltimore's side here as the only times that a team won a Championship Game rematch happened when two teams faced in three straight Championship Games (1976 Raiders and 1994 49ers). Every other rematch saw the previous year winner remain on top. Thus, the Ravens have to try to end a historical trend.

Baltimore's defense is better as of late (of the 35 points given up last week, 14 were via special teams), though that had a lot to do with the Broncos injuries in the run game. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens try to defend the Patriots, but they can't allow the Pats to run on them. Tom Brady is going to have success at times. It makes his success much easier if Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen are running the ball well. Another thing needed by the Ravens is that the Pats secondary plays like Denver's did last week. Funny thing is that New England finally figured out a way to make a solid secondary after years of failed draft picks and just an overall lack of talent there (helps when Aqib Talib is just handed to them in midseason).

The familiarity that these two teams breed will keep this game close. Just like a Ravens-Steelers game is always within a score, so is a Ravens-Patriots contest. I'm confident that Joe Flacco will keep the Ravens in this one, but in the end, there's too much Brady and too much Bill Belichick to overcome all the emotion to win a Super Bowl for Ray Lewis.

Patriots will win 31-27.

Last week: 2-2
Playoffs: 5-3
Season: 135-121-6

Divisional Saturday

We gear up for the best football weekend of the year with two matchups that cause everyone to look ahead to next week, one which no one believes in the favorite and the final matchup that makes it unfortunate that it isn't the NFC Championship game. To be fair, this year's Divisional round is better because of the way the game shook down from last week (although we will never be better for RGIII tearing his knee like he did last week). Let's take a look at the games.


Baltimore at Denver: Spread: Broncos by 9

Last week in Baltimore was about Ray Lewis' last home game and the Ravens more or less held off the Colts with timely offense and by keeping the pressure on Andrew Luck. The question for the Ravens is how much of the blowout they suffered in Week 15 against the Broncos is an aberration and how much of it is a trend. One thing we do know about Denver; their defense is a whole lot better than the Colts'. It's also true that while the Ravens are still hurt, their defense is better with Ray Lewis back in (this is where you tell me, thanks Captain Obvious).

One thing that is true though is Peyton Manning has always played well against the Ravens (or more to the point, his teams always beat the Ravens, especially in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, the Ravens haven't scored a touchdown against a Manning-led team (though Peyton has very little to do with that, aside from controlling field position). Of the two AFC matchups, the Ravens are more likely to pull an upset. Doesn't mean that's going to happen.

Broncos will win 31-17


Green Bay at San Francisco: Spread: 49ers by 3

I've been waiting for this game since Joe Webb's third pass from in the grasp of a sack last week. Packers and 49ers have history (their battles in the 1990s), common lineage (Mike Holmgren brought the West Coast offense there; Mike McCarthy was a SF offensive coordinator before going to Green Bay), draft history (49ers picking Alex Smith over hometown guy and Cal grad Aaron Rodgers back in  2005) and a recent result to motivate both sides. The season opener between these two teams, however, feels like it too place forever, especially now that Alex Smith has been replaced by Colin Kaepernick at QB. However, I have a feeling the absence of another Smith will prove to be the difference.

Since losing Justin Smith to injury, the 49ers defense hasn't been nearly as good (coincidentally, neither has Aldon Smith). It started against the Pats in the second half when New England rallied from a 31-3 deficit to tie it up, then the Seahawks put a 40-burger on the Niners the following week. The hope is that a game with the Cards and a bye week are enough to get the defense back to their typical season form. However, facing Aaron Rodgers (who has his first chance at making San Francisco pay for not drafting him) isn't a promising prospect for them. Let's not forget that the Packers defense is basically playing a similar offense to last week's Vikings (aside from Kaepernick waking up to know he's the starter). As long as they don't allow the 49ers to run on them, I don't see how Green Bay doesn't win today, with or without Justin Smith.

Green Bay will win 27-17

Last week: 3-1
Season: 133-119-6

NFC Playoff Picture

Last week, when I debuted the new playoff picture series, I started with the AFC because they were finished with their week before the NFC. This week, the tables turn as the NFC has completed 13 games. For this week's edition, we have to eliminate the Saints from our list. Their 52-27 loss to the Giants puts them at 5-8 and looks like needs to win out, needs Seattle/Chicago to lose out and hope tiebreakers go their way. So, it's over for the Saints. Here's how the NFC looks after Week 14.


Divison Leaders

Atlanta (11-2)- Clinched NFC South. Last 3 games (NYG, @Det, TB)

The Falcons suffered their second loss of the season yesterday against the Panthers and saw their lead shrink as all of other NFC division leaders won. It's not panic time in Atlanta as the Falcons are still in great shape to clinch home-field throughout the playoffs.

San Francisco (9-3-1)- Last 3 games (@NE, @Sea, Ari)

Bounce back win for the Niners at home to maintain the spot for a first-round bye. Looking at the schedule, playing the Cardinals at home should get them their 10th win, which clinches a playoff spot. That's a good thing, because their next two games could determine if the 49ers are winning the division with a bye or perhaps being forced to start the playoffs on the road.

Green Bay (9-4)- Last 3 games (@Chi, Ten, @Min)

It's always nice to play the Lions since they know how to gift teams wins, no matter how much they lead in the game. Because of the Bears loss, the Packers can clinch the NFC North next week if they beat the Bears. Getting the win means the Packers can focus on trying to get the bye as the Titans at home should be easy. A loss to Chicago, however, opens the door for someone to pass them (and remember the Seahawks own the tiebreaker over them).

N.Y. Giants (8-5)- Last 3 games (@Atl, @Balt, Phil)

The Giants offense looked dominant (except when they were careless) against the Saints and maintained their NFC East lead. Oh, but what could have been as both the Redskins and Cowboys won games they were on the brink of losing. The Giants lead stays at one game, and the schedule continues to get tougher. No rest yet for the defending champs.


Wild Card Teams

Seattle (8-5)- Last 3 games (@Buf in Toronto, SF, Stl)

There aren't enough superlatives to describe the Seahawks 58-0 win over the Cardinals, so all I can think is how the Seahawks can still very easily win out and get a first-round bye. To do that, they need the Pats to beat the Niners next Sunday (something that's very possible). They could also use a Packers loss to someone before the season ends. At the very least, a playoff berth looks very good for the Seahawks.

Chicago (8-5)- Last 3 games (GB, @Ari, @Det)

The Bears look like a sinking ship right now (lost 4 of 5) and getting the Packers this week is the last thing they need. One more loss opens the door for all three 7-6 teams to get in the playoffs as a wild card. Having the Cards left on the schedule is very helpful, but let's be honest, it will all come down to that game in Detroit. They also are the leading candidate in the NFC to lose a game they should win down the stretch.


The Contenders

Washington (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Clev, @Phil, Dal)

What happens when you're driving for the winning score and Robert Griffin III gets hurt? Well, the Redskins showed that they'll win the game anyway. Losing yesterday would have put Washington down two games with three left; now they are still a game behind the Giants/Seahawks/Bears are still the most dangerous of the non-playoff teams. They still have to win out to have a chance at the playoffs, because you can't count on 9 wins to be enough for the playoffs. Not in this conference.

Dallas (7-6)- Last 3 games (Pit, NO, @Wash)

The Cowboys were able to win yesterday despite the tragedy surrounding their team and a nine point 4th quarter deficit. Because of the win, Dallas is still in the thick of the NFC race, though the schedule doesn't get easier. It looks like that final game between the Cowboys and the Redskins could be the decider of the last playoff spot, assuming the Bears swoon continues or the Giants schedule gets the best of them.

Minnesota (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Stl, @Hou, GB)

Yes, the Vikings are still in the hunt for a playoff berth. Another great game for Adrian Peterson gave the Vikings a win over the Bears which helps them in case of a tiebreaker. They have an interesting schedule left as they could be playing both the Texans and Packers after they clinched their seeds in the playoffs. I'm still surprised that the Vikings have survived this second half schedule thus far to remain in the race. The biggest negative for the Vikings is they lose tiebreakers to both Dallas and Washington and need both to lose down the stretch to move ahead in toward a playoff spot.

St. Louis (6-6-1)- Last 3 games (Min, @TB, @Sea)

The only reason I still have the Rams in this part of the playoff list is because if a playoff spot can be had with 9 wins, the Rams clinch if they are 9-6-1. That's the only way the Rams make the playoffs, so I leave them here. The schedule is reasonably tough, but could be interesting when they have to play the Seahawks if they lose to the Niners. Potential play-in game once again between these two teams.


Not mathematically out, but need a whole lot of help

Tampa Bay (6-7)-Last 3 games (@NO, Stl, @Atl)

Killer loss yesterday against the sorry Eagles. Completely brutal. Being at 7-6 at least keeps the Bucs with a reasonable chance to make it. Now, they need too much to happen and depending on next week's results, they could be out of the picture win or lose.

NFC Playoff Picture

We took a peek at the AFC playoff picture yesterday and now that the week is finished, the NFC playoff picture is clear. Unlike the AFC, where their only down to 7 teams with realistic playoff chances, the NFC has 12 teams who can probably say they their season isn't over (Sorry, Panthers, Eagles, Lions and Cardinals). Let's get a look:

Division Leaders

Atlanta (11-1)- Clinched the NFC South. Last 4 games: @Car, NYG, @Det, TB.

I don't know how the Falcons are 11-1, but here they are and about to clinch home-field advantage for the 2nd time in 3 years. The games with the Panthers and Lions will likely put the Falcons over the top in terms of having the road to the Super Bowl go through the Georgia Dome, but if they fail to beat the Giants, teams will still be skeptical of this team.

San Francisco (8-3-1)- Last 4 games: Mia, @NE, @Sea, Ari

If the Niners don't finish the year with a first round bye, they can thank the Rams. The tie and the near second tie and loss puts them in a tough spot in terms of the division. Having games at the Pats and Seahawks don't make the schedule easy. Can't allow stumbles against the Dolphins and Cards.

Green Bay (8-4)- Last 4 games: Det, @Chi, Ten, @Min

Their win over the Vikings, plus the Bears OT loss put the Packers atop the NFC North for the first time this year. Not bad for a team who a week ago was in huge trouble. Their remaining schedule isnt difficult, but that game at Soldier Field looms large. The winner of the division will be decided in that one. I think the other bye comes from the North winner.

N.Y. Giants (7-5)- Last 4 games: NO, @Atl, @Balt, Phil

Boy, the Giants had a great chance to open up a two game lead in the NFC East and effectively eliminate the Redskins. Instead, they lose a frustrating game and now once again are going to try to do things the hard way. I can't tell you what they'll do in the next 3 games because I don't know which team will show up. I really hope they don't need to beat the Eagles to make the playoffs. This loss ends any chance at a bye, I believe.

Wild Cards

Chicago (8-4)- Last 4 games: @Min, GB, @Ari, @Det

The worst part of the loss to the Seahawks is they'll also lose in any tiebreaker to them, which should never happen when you play Seattle away from Seattle. As mentioned earlier, Green Bay-Chicago should decide the division. What wasn't mentioned is what happens to the loser. Barring an injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears do have an easy enough schedule that should allow them to still make the playoffs, though I wouldn't overlook the Vikings on the road.

Seattle (7-5)- Last 4 games: Ari, @Buf, SF, Stl

Huge Sunday for the Seahawks, as they get a great win on the road and see the 49ers lose. They get 3 of their last 4 games, where they play great and the 4th game is a "road" game in Toronto against the Bills. San Francisco better not count on the winning the West without getting a big win.

Contenders

Washington (6-6)- Last 4 games: Balt, @Clev, @Phil, Dal

Can the Washington Redskins win their last 7 games? They won their last three and Cleveland and Philly are easily winnable. Baltimore's the tough test (on a short week, no less). I don't see a wild card being the destiny for the Redskins, but if the Giants keep fooling around, they can fool their way out of the playoffs and in could come the Redskins.

Dallas (6-6)- Last 4 games: @Cin, Pit, NO, @Wash

The Cowboys stay in the conversation with their win over the Eagles. They have quite a tough schedule (which would be tougher if Ben Roethlisberger is back) so the chances they make the playoffs are slim. I think if they can be 8-7 before the Redskins game, they'll still have a shot.

Minnesota (6-6)- Last 4 games: Chi, @Stl, @Hou, GB

What the Vikings have going for them is both the Bears and Packers go to the Metrodome. Also, they get the Rams left as well, another winnable game. The biggest question for them is can their game with Houston take place when the Texans have clinched everything. If so, there's a small chance the Vikings could run the table, though I don't think it's enough to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay (6-6)- Last 4 games: Phil, @NO, Stl, @Atl

Unfortunately for the Bucs, their skill of losing close games has returned and their two game losing streak has put them in trouble for the playoffs. The schedule isn't that hard, but we have another case of hoping for teams above to lose games. Fact is, if you aren't in the NFC East, the teams ahead have easy schedules to close out.

Mathematically alive, but basically out

St. Louis (5-6-1)- Last 4 games: @Buf, Min, @TB, @Sea

That tie hurts because 10 wins will get you in the playoffs this year (though the NFC East winner could end with 9). They need to win all four left and must hope that after 49ers-Seahawks, both teams have 9 wins.

New Orleans (5-7)- Last 4 games: @NYG, TB, @Dal, Car

They rallied into the playoff race, but two losses in a row put them on the outside looking in. They also need to win out, and hope that 9 wins gets a playoff spot. They can only look back to their losses to the Packers and Chiefs if they end up falling short, which is likely.

Giants-Niners Preview

Finally, we have the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. In the AFC blog post yesterday, I made mention how only a select few make it to the AFC Championship game and win the game in the last 11 years. Well, the NFC has been the opposite, with 10 different Super Bowl representatives for the last 10 years. Today, the Niners can make it 11, or the Giants can be the NFC team with the most since 2000 with 3. Also, when seeing these two teams play in the playoffs, there's history. There's the 1990 NFC Championship Game, the hardest hitting game of all time (watch any Giants-49ers game from the late 80s, early 90s and you'll stop believing SF was a "finesse" team). There's Mark Bavaro dragging the 49ers defense, Montana to Rice in Giants Stadium and of course, the 2002 Wild Card game. What history will be made today? That's not one of them, but here are the five questions for this matchup.

1. Which team can establish the run better?

In the first game, which the Niners won 27-20, the Giants didn't have Ahmad Bradshaw, while the 49ers lost Frank Gore early. In the end, San Fran had Kendall Hunter make a big play on the ground, while the Giants didn't get that from Brandon Jacobs. The difference between these teams is that the 49ers have been outstanding on run defense, while the Giants in the regular season were far from it. During the playoff run, they showed they can shut a big-time runner down when Michael Turner was bottled up during the Wild Card game. Giants need more of the same today, as well as Bradshaw making things happen when the Giants are running.

2. How much will special teams matter?

Now I know that's a dumb question, because they always matter. However, if special teams becomes the deciding factor in this game, it's a MAJOR advantage to the Niners. Andy Lee can blast punts, and Ted Ginn Jr. can run them back. I'd say that David Akers is the weak link today because of his mixed history when kicking against the Giants, but he's home and it mitigate that a little. The Giants, on the other hand, have return men who I worry about catching the football then actually making a play, and a kicker in Lawrence Tynes, who Giants fans don't trust, even after kicking the team to the Super Bowl. I'm not saying the Giants can't make a special teams play, but if special teams makes a difference (think Texans-Ravens as an example), it helps the home team.

3. How does Eli Manning handle the San Fran pass rush?

They will make plays on defense. That's who the 49ers are under Jim Harbaugh. They got to Drew Brees (particularly Justin Smith) and frustrated him most of the day. Still, Brees found ways to get the ball to his big play guys to put the Saints in a position to win. Now, we have Eli, same type quarterback, who'll stay in the pocket. He now has to find his big WR's Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, not to mention secondary options like Mario Manningham and Bradshaw. And for the Giants, they need the Jake Ballard from earlier this year who made Giants fans forget about Kevin Boss. And if the Niners have one weakness on defense, it's Donte Whitmer's predisposition to go for highlight plays and failing (think Charlie Peprah last week on Nicks' first TD).

4. How do the Niners mitigate the Giants pass rush?

Last week, Alex Smith faced the Saints blitz late and took full advantage in the winning TD drive. The Giants, unfortunately for them, won't do a lot of blitzing. They can get to the QB with that front four, allowing seven defenders flood passing lanes, forcing QB's to be perfect on their throws. Aaron Rodgers couldn't do that last week, will Alex Smith have more luck. Elsewhere when the Niners have the ball, look for the Giants to double Vernon Davis. No way they let him beat them. Which will likely leave Michael Crabtree going against Corey Webster. Crabtree would need to win this matchup if the Niners are to win (or hope Aaron Ross plays him a few times and Smith realizes to throw to him at that point).

5. Who wins?

The Giants won't be frustrated if they can't get to Alex Smith early, if they can't run early, if they fall behind early. This is a team that will grind you down for four quarters and once they reach that 4th quarter, the Giants usually take control. Helps when your QB has the most 4th quarter TD's in a single season in NFL history. 49ers are a great team, but even though they're home, I don't think they are ready for the Super Bowl quite yet. Giants win 30-20.

Sunday Divisional Round Preview

Time for the Sunday games, after the predictable Pats blowout of Tebow and the Broncos and the epic finish in San Francisco. That game was amazing yesterday; one which I wanted to last forever. The best football games are the ones which teams trade scores at some point. And for all the Niners fans, now you know that Alex Smith is capable to win a big game. Can he win the Super Bowl? Well, let's see how the playoffs play out if he needs to go to Lambeau and/or have to face the Patriots or the Ravens/Texans. Perfect segue to my picks today.

Houston at Baltimore

Of all the weekend's games, this is the one which lacks juice. It's easy to see once you realize the starting QB's are T.J. Yates and Joe Flacco. Of all the other games, the only QB that gives you a meh feeling is Alex Smith, but it was great offense vs great defense and Smith rose to the occasion when it mattered most. Shame is, this game is the one with the two best running backs left with Arian Foster and Ray Rice; yet the defenses here are so good, the quarterbacks will decide this one. Too bad for Houston, they have the rookie QB on the road unlike last week when Andy Dalton was the rookie on the road. Plus, they lost to the Ravens pretty handily back in October when Matt Schaub was healthy. The only argument I can see for the Texans is that their defense shuts down Baltimore, Flacco plays horrible and Andre Johnson (who didn't play the earlier game) makes a couple plays. I just don't see it. Ravens win 20-3.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay

Walking out of MetLife Stadium after last week's dominating win over the Falcons, the fans seemed to believe that this is 2007 all over again; quick start, bad losses to bad teams, admirable performance losing at home to unbeaten power 38-35, pass rush starts to dominate line as Eli Manning throws the Giants to wins. Now, the Giants have their chance to win the rematch against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Difference to this game than the Super Bowl; Green Bay's no longer unbeaten and they are home for the game. Giants, in my eyes though, are better considering the WR's are better, Jason Pierre-Paul more than makes up for Michael Strahan and we go into this knowing Eli Manning can win big games, not just hoping he would. Avoiding turnovers are extremely necessary in order to win this game, since you can't Rodgers a short field while losing chances to score (which the Giants need to do). Someone's going to screw up this weekend among the heavily favored home teams. It wasn't the Pats, I don't think it's the Ravens, so it must be the Packers. Giants with the upset 34-30.

Saturday Divisional Round Preview

Last week, there was no preview of the Saturday Wild Card games (and a rushed version for Sunday). This week is different; the match ups are better and more interesting then most Divisional Rounds (most due to Tim Tebow). However in terms of best games, clearly the NFC has the better of the two conferences and just shows what's to me and Ashley Fox is true; the NFC is once again the better conference. And we'll begin the Divisional Round with the biggest toss-up of the four.

New Orleans at San Francisco

If this game was in New Orleans, the Saints win easy, probably like 35-16. The dome, the turf and the crowd would scare a team like the Niners (particularly Alex Smith) and their inability to score touchdowns would hurt greatly there. Lucky for San Francisco, they are at Candlestick, on that grass than can be longer and perhaps a bit muddy as most big Niners games were. Bill Barnwell showed us the stat that the Saints score about 2 touchdowns less a game on the road than at home. I was leaning Saints all week long, but then I started thinking, how many times does the road favorite win? It didn't happen last week in Denver. Saints lost in Seattle last year in the same fashion, though the Packers did win in Chicago for the NFC Title and the Ravens won in Kansas City as a favorite last year as well. That's a small sample size, so who do I go with. It's wrong to call the 2 seed beating a 3 seed an upset, but the Niners will win 19-17 and we finally give Jim Harbaugh and his defense some legitimate praise for shutting down a dominant offense.

Denver at New England

Will it be Tebow Time again? We know that Tebow will have to score like he did in Pittsburgh if there's any chance for his Broncos. Denver lucked out that Pittsburgh was a MASH unit by the end and Ben Roethlisberger couldn't move around the pocket creating plays like normal. Tom Brady won't need that. I don't see who defends the Pats TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. And while the Pats defense isn't good, they can ballhawk. Did you know that the Patriots led the AFC in takeaways, third in the league? So while they might lose coverage of players, they can make up for it by causing a turnover. I fully believe the Pats continue to play defense to stop the run, without selling out the deep ball like the Steelers did. New England wins in a walk, 45-17.

Come back tomorrow for the Sunday picks.

Sunday Wild Card Preview

Work this week didn't allow me to write up a Saturday preview (except for my Twitter thoughts), but here are my thoughts on the Saturday in football.

-If the Texans can play in Baltimore the way they played yesterday, they can beat the Ravens. Meaning they run well with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and if Andre Johnson can make a difference like he did on the TD pass. I know their defense will show up, but I expect a tougher time for young T.J. Yates on the road.

-I'd have a whole lot more confidence in the Bengals future if Mike Brown wasn't the man to decide on how to improve it. It's a lot to ask Andy Dalton to win his first road playoff game.

-Detroit is also on the right path, just need a running game and a better secondary. Now, any secondary can look bad against the Saints in New Orleans, but a running game would have kept the ball in the Lions' hands for more of the game.

-As for the Saints, what else is there to say about their offense. I really can't wait until they play San Francisco; great offense against great defense. Also curious how the Niners play in their first playoff game since Steve Mariucci's last game as coach.

Now onto today's games, one of which I will be attending. That's right, I'll be at MetLife Stadium for Giants-Falcons. Though I can be biased when the Giants are involved, I do think they win today 27-20 because the outdoors will hurt Atlanta, plus the Giants have their pass rush back, and not just Jason Pierre-Paul.

As for the late game, my first thought was no way can the Broncos beat the Steelers after the game they played against Kansas City and after losing their last 3 games. Over the past week, I've seen some people go the other way, with the worry being the Steelers who are hurt and those who are banged up. Also, too much is being made about the fact that 8-8 or worse teams playing home playoff games have done well recently. I expect some turnovers by Tebow and the Broncos and a couple play made by Ben Roethlisberger will be the difference. Steelers will win 20-3.

More Thanksgiving Picks

Miami at Dallas

The one game that doesn't involve two playoff contenders, though the Dolphins have started to play like one in the last three games. And now, a game the Cowboys thought was easy is now one they must show up for. The good news for Dallas, Tony Romo is unbeaten in Thanksgiving games. Maybe Jerry Jones should petition that the season end on Thanksgiving. Everyone thinks the Dolphins will keep it close with the Cowboys, I think that if Dallas wins, it's big. And they do, beating Miami 31-10.


San Francisco at Baltimore

The Harbaugh Bowl. Jim vs John. Toughest game the Niners are playing this season, traveling East to face a Ravens team that doesn't lose to good teams or at home. And yet, they seem like a trendy pick as well. Reason I'm picking Baltimore: I trust Joe Flacco more than I do Alex Smith on the road. Otherwise, these teams are mirror images of one another. Ravens will win 23-16.

Last week: 4-8-2
Week 10: 10-6
Season record: 76-76-8

Revolving Recaps

Week 4 was a week which the underdogs reigned supreme, as nine of the fourteen dogs covered, with six of them winning outright. This seems like more of an indication that this season is one of those which the parity is prevalent, in the sense that separation between the best and the worst aren't that great. It will all make sense later this week when I write my first power poll, for now, here's the recaps of this week's games.


Let's start with the Jets, who had the easiest win of the week. LaDainian Tomlinson dominated today and Mark Sanchez continued his effective passing game. The Jets seem well oiled and only will get better with Santonio Holmes, Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace about to come back. As for the Bills, keep scouting Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker.

The game of the week was in Pittsburgh with another low-scoring battle between the Steelers and the Ravens. It was a must-win for the Ravens who couldn't afford to lose to Pittsburgh with Charlie Batch at QB. What impressed me about that game was how Joe Flacco was able to be somewhat effective, which is regular effective when playing the Steelers. Pittsburgh would have won had Jeff Reed hit a couple FG's, though, but that's another subtopic this year in the NFL, bad placekicking.

New Orleans continued it's Super Bowl hangover, struggling at home with the Panthers. The Saints left points early in the game by turning the ball over in Panthers territory twice. Also, the Saints couldn't score touchdowns and the mid-week acquisition of John Carney came up huge with a 3 for 3 day kicking FG's. Carolina was able to drive late, when the Saints defense turned up the pressure and Carolina couldn't even get a field goal try off. Panthers still have things to work on, but maybe they're no longer the worst in the league and Jimmy Clausen is gaining experience.

A funny game in Lambeau as the Packers had a barnburner with the always game Lions. Detroit really needs to learn how to win road games, but as Deion Sanders said on NFL Network last night, they aren't Homecoming anymore. Calvin Johnson makes his case for the best WR in football with his TD's, while Aaron Rodgers continued his impressive play. Once the Lions were stopped in the middle of the 4th quarter, the never saw the ball.

The game I figured was due to happen, the Bengals finally lost a game to a lesser team, which is bad enough, until you realize it's their archrival Browns. Yes, Terrell Owens had a big day, with 10 catches, 222 yards and a TD, but the offense still isn't that good and it's only a matter of time the mainstream media realizes that Carson Palmer isn't a good QB anymore. As for the Browns, all of a sudden, Peyton Hillis has become an effective running back. Still can't see this team play well enough to save Eric Mangini's job, and soon I want to see Colt McCoy play at QB.

The weirdest game happened in Tennessee as the Broncos rallied to win 26-20. Mostly nondescript game until the 4th when the Broncos got the ball at the Titans 1 after a pass interference call on a throw to Jabar Gaffney. After a penalty, Kyle Orton found Correll Buckhalter for the game-winning touchdown. On the kickoff, it was shades of the 1998 AFC Championship game for the Broncos as the kick was short and the Titans couldn't handle it. Denver took over, and iced it with a field goal. Still don't know what to make of either team.

This game was slightly weirder than Niners/Falcons, which played itself more like a Greek tragedy if you're a SF fan. They started so hot, getting a 14-0 lead, then let the Falcons slowly come back to make it 14-13 late in the 4th. That when Nate Clemens picked off Matt Ryan and ran it down the field, then loses focus on the run and gets stripped by Roddy White. Falcons proceed to march down the field and kick the winning field goal. Falcons survived their trap game and will move on, while the Niners continue to plummet and this might mean the end for Mike Singletary as head coach.

Instead of the Niners leading the NFC West, there's a three way tie at 2-2. The Cardinals lost another game on the road in blowout fashion 41-10 to the Chargers. Not much to say, the Chargers are playing well at home and the Cards are thinking about starting Max Hall next week. Meanwhile, the Rams had an easy win over the Seahawks at home and found themselves in a tie for first. I've been behind the Rams all year and I must say, they have the best chance to win the division. They have the best QB in rookie Sam Bradford, Steve Spagnuolo is as good a coach as that division has and Steven Jackson is skilled enough to make defenses key on the rush. The other thing to worry about is the Seahawks home field; they can win the division by going 8-0 at home alone.

Houston went into Oakland without Arian Foster for the first half. So they turned Derrick Ward into the version from the Giants early. It was close until Foster came in and ran a touchdown from 74 yards out. He scored another to make it 31-14, before holding on 31-24 over the Raiders. The Texans showed how good they are despite the loss of Andre Johnson, while the Raiders showed that...they're still the Raiders.

The play of the day happened in Jacksonville in a wildly competitive game between the Colts and Jaguars when Josh Scobee hit a 59 yard field goal to win it for the Jags. As usual when these two teams play, it was close, a back and forth contest which the guy with the ball last wins. Usually, that guy is Peyton Manning, but not yesterday. Now we have a Jags team, who I thought was among the five worst have the same record as Indianapolis.

The most hyped matchup Sunday was Donovan McNabb's return to Philly against Michael Vick's Eagles. Unfortunately for the Eagles, Vick got hit in the ribs and left the game and now won't play next week. That meant Kevin Kolb had to play again, and to be fair, he wasn't terrible and gets a chance to show how good he is with this week's game against the Niners. Meanwhile, McNabb and the Skins started fast, particularly with the running game, which the Eagles had trouble stopping all day. The second half was disjointed, but up 5 with 4 minutes left, McNabb ran for a first down, which didn't the Eagles much time for a comeback (though they came close). The Redskins win tied them with the Eagles for first with a very NFC West like 2-2.

Another team would join that tie as the Giants thoroughly dominated the Bears, even though the score was closer. Jay Cutler was battered by the Giants defense, sans Mathius Kiwanuka, to the tune of 9 sacks and left with a concussion at halftime. Once Todd Collins came in, the offense gave up and once the Giants drove down the field for a touchdown, the game was over. Still, the Giants have to clear up some areas, but the defense is getting better. As for the Bears, they now go from 3-0 and feeling good, to now at the crossroads this year with Cutler's injury. Of course, the Bears were lucky to be 3-0 anyway.

Just now, the Pats showed us Pats football. Trailing 7-6 at halftime, New England took advantage of every single Miami mistake en route to a 41-14 win. The offense did enough as Tom Brady channelled his 01-04 days while the much maligned defense took care of business in the second half. Player of the game goes to Patrick Chung who blocked a punt and a field goal, while running an interception back for a touchdown. Very impressive. While the Patriots righted their ship, the Dolphins now have lost to their two rivals at home in back-to-back weeks and if they are to win the division, they almost certainly have to win in New York and Foxboro. Troubling for the Fish, indeed.

NFL Preview: NFC and Super Bowl Pick

To read Part 1 about the AFC, click here.

Now it's the NFC's turn and the task of this conference is the supplant the Super Bowl champions, unlike in the AFC (no matter what Rex Ryan says). Does anyone have enough to do so? Here's the predictions.

(*-denotes Wild Card)

NFC East: 1. Giants 2. Cowboys 3. Redskins 4. Eagles

The thing that no one noticed about the Giants is they lost no one of significance (expect those who were terrible on defense). They have a very underrated passing attack, better safeties and an improved defensive line. If Bradshaw stays healthy, the run game will have success. The Cowboys have the attention, but their offensive line isn't good. No home game Super Bowl for them. The Redskins will be better with Donovan McNabb, but he doesn't stay healthy enough and the lack of weapons will keep them out of the playoffs. As for the Eagles, Kevin Kolb will struggle this year and the defense still is in need of improvement.

NFC North: 1. Packers 2. Vikings* 3. Bears 4. Lions

The Packers are the team everyone seems to be picking and I'm following right behind them. Aaron Rodgers will take his rightful place alongside Peyton, Brady and Brees as the best QB's in the league and they are capable of going far despite an average defense. Determining where the Vikings and Bears will finish was tough. Are the Vikes capable of returning in the NFC title game? Does Jay Cutler get better with Mike Martz? I opted for Minnesota over Chicago because it could get ugly if the Bears start slow. Lovie Smith is clearly on the hot seat. I would love the Lions if this was the West (either conference). The North is too tough this year, but next year...look out.

NFC South: 1. Saints 2. Falcons* 3. Panthers 4. Bucs

For once, the South could stay constant in back-to-back years. The best thing going for the Saints, that no one's talking about them and they're defending champs. Best thing that could happen to them and maybe will keep them grounded. Atlanta should return to the playoffs with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner coming back from injury. I also expect the Falcons defense to be improved with Dunta Robinson in the secondary. The Panthers are another team with uncertainty hanging over them with John Fox's job. They won't bottom out, but with QB a question mark, they probably won't be better than 8-8. Tampa is still in strong rebuild mode and they seem years away and it's likely not Raheem Morris to get the job done.

NFC West: 1. 49ers 2. Rams 3. Cardinals 4. Seahawks

It's clear that the Niners are now the best team in the West. The Cards have lost too much, particularly Kurt Warner (the downgrade from Warner to Derek Anderson is the biggest in 2010). Seattle is Pete Carroll's team now and that doesn't inspire hope (proved by Mike Williams being the number 1 WR). The Rams I think will be 2nd once Sam Bradford begins to get confidence. I wouldn't be shocked with them finishing 6-10. The Niners will go 10-6 as now Alex Smith seemingly is getting comfortable at quarterback and with talented players like Patrick Willis, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore as well as an improved offensive line.

1st Round: Niners over Falcons, Giants over Vikings

Divisional Round: Saints over Giants, Packers over Niners

NFC Championship Game: Packers over Saints

Super Bowl: Packers over Steelers

As for tonight's pick, I have the Saints (-6) over the Vikings in the opener. I'll have the rest of Week 1 picks Saturday morning.

First Day Recap and Second Day Preview

The NFL Draft completed it's first round last night in record time, allowing me to watch the end of Pens/Sens without distraction. While I don't like the NFL competing head-to-head against the NHL/NBA, they were competing anyway in the past. I love how this is spread out, allows for speculation and trades overnight. It's like the NHL Draft, without having all six other rounds going today and splitting the 2nd and 3rd from the rest. Here's some thoughts:

-I think we all knew the Rams would draft Sam Bradford because they felt like they couldn't pass on QB again. While Bradford could be a good player, if he doesn't work out, the Rams will continue to flounder. Ndamukong Suh was the best player in this draft and the Rams would have been better served to take him and then they would have their choice of Jimmy Clausen or Colt McCoy to open the second round tonight.

-The Lions in my eyes were the big winner by grabbing Suh and trading back in to take Jahvid Best at RB. Best adds to a team that is getting better in skill positions. The Lions have to now focus their future picks on adding to the offensive line so the skill players can be effective. Kind of like the Niners, who spend the first round drafting Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati, who join Joe Staley to put some youth and talent to a San Francisco line that was poor a year ago. Very good for a team that's the NFC West favorite, at least in my eyes.

-My other favorite picks of the night; Dallas trading up to grab Dez Bryant, though it duels as my least favorite pick since I didn't want the Cowboys to take him. Jermaine Greisham going to the Bengals who needed a TE in the worst way was good, and to be fair, picks 2-6 are all obvious and smart, particularly the Chiefs not overthinking and taking Eric Berry, who will dominate at safety for the next decade, in a league which a dominant safety has become key. Finally, the Steelers drafting Maurkice Pouncey at center will be the next coming of Dermontti Dawson for that franchise.

-My least favorite moves: Why did the Chargers jump to 12 to grab Ryan Mathews and the Eagles jump to 13 to take Brandon Graham. Both players could have been available further down in the first round. Also, the Jaguars could have traded down to take Tyson Alualu and should have. The fact that Tim Tebow was taken in the first round also is a move I don't like, plus the Broncos keep compiling these QB's.

As for tonight, the key will be who wants Colt McCoy and/or Jimmy Clausen and who will give up anything to get them. Personally, I like Clausen and the fact he was dropped to the second round will rid him of some cockiness that is perceived. I also like he played in an NFL-style offense under Charlie Weis, and before you bring up Brady Quinn, let's be fair, he had no chance to succeed in Cleveland, especially after they were dumb enough to resign Derek Anderson to that contract after his successful '07 season. Not to harp on Notre Dame guys, but I'm keen to watch were Golden Tate will go. He was better than you think and with Weis in Kansas City, perhaps there's a fit. You know the Chiefs need more skill players. Sergio Kindle is the other guy I'm looking at since he's a first round talent and whomever grabs him will be pleased, unless his injury issues are much more serious.

Before I finish, I must talk about the Giants draft pick Jason Pierre-Paul and the Jets grabbing Kyle Wilson. Both teams picked in places of strength and both were the right move. Rex Ryan loves his corners and Wilson will provide some insurance for Antonio Cromartie, in case he doesn't work out. Expect them to look for another pass rusher and offensive line help today. As for the Giants, Pierre-Paul looks like the best athlete in the draft. Everything I hear is that he has a great motor and all he needs is to learn technique and he'll be scary good. I'm pleased. Now the Giants need to look at the linebacker hole and Kindle and Sean Lee are who I'd want the Giants to get in the second round. They also should be looking at a DT and OL if both are off the board and in the third round.

NFL Preview Part III

If you read through Part I and Part II of my NFL preview, you're wondering why I never told you my Super Bowl pick. Well, I set the stage with things that could happen for all 32 teams. Now it's time for my predictions on the upcoming season. I gave away predictions, such as the Patriots and Chargers winning their divisions and the Lions getting a win this season. Here's 10 more (that actually will expand to more than that):


1. The Eagles won't make the playoffs. It seemed like once Michael Vick joined Philadelphia, they were instantly made the favorites in the NFC. However, as I said when he was signed, Vick won't make a huge impact on this team. He may have looked okay during the preseason, but the game is played at 80 percent in August. Once the season starts, everyone plays at 100 percent and I just don't believe you can just sit for two years and comeback like it was two days. Add to that, Donovan McNabb played every game last season for the first time since 2003, I can't see that happen again (not to mention Philly fans calling for Vick after every interception). Let's also remember that Brian Westbrook also misses about five games a season.


2. This year's MVP will be a defensive player. At least in this blog, in real life, no one will vote for a defensive player because they never do. As for me, unless the offensive player had a year like Tom Brady in '07, it can't be always better than a defensive player's year. I thought James Harrison should of been in the hunt for MVP last year. I know Ed Reed, Osi Umenyiora and DeMarcus Ware are all worthy of consideration in a given year. I will say that Ed Reed will be the MVP of the league this year as he gets 10 INT's and runs three of them for a touchdown. You're top offensive players with be Drew Brees and Knowshon Moreno as top rookie, while Aaron Curry will be top defensive rookie.


3. One of the eleven first year coaches will be fired. The NFL has increasingly become harder to maintain work because the object of winning is too prevalent in the state of the game. Seeing three offensive coordinators, including long-time coach Chan Gailey, lead me to think that some of these coaches who were just hired will certainly be fired. Now Tom Cable certainly could be fired, but he doesn't count because the Raiders are bizarro world. But, I definitely could see Eric Mangini let go, in fact, here it is. The Browns will finish 4-12, the players will cause a revolt and he will be gone. Of course, we will lose more coaches than the new ones.


4. The Brett Favre experiment will crash and burn and Brad Childress will be the fall guy. You all knew that I would go out in this point of view, but I just don't see Brett Favre only handing the ball to Adrian Peterson and throw safe passes. He's a gunslinger and the only way for a gunslinger to stop slinging guns is to shoot him. While that works in Westerns, in football, they just don't get signed to $12 million contracts after a while. Sure the Vikings can start 4-1, but their stretch of Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and at Green Bay will do them in and they won't recreate the early momentum. Childress will be fired as a result and he will have company; Dick Jauron will finally be let go after a failed season with TO, same for Wade Phillips when the Cowboys finished last in the NFC East (albeit at 7-9).


5. The most disappointing team this year will be the Falcons. I know the offense can be good, but it won't be and the lack of defense and harder schedule against NFC and AFC Easts will lead to another year where Atlanta won't have two winning seasons in a row. They will be joined by the Panthers who will be 7-9 and that will end the Jake Delhomme era. It actually could be considered a successful one that almost beat the Pats in the Super Bowl, but he has lived off that Super Bowl loss for way too long. As for the AFC, the most disappointing team will be the Titans. I know you saw them play well tonight, but I just can't believe Kerry Collins is capable of two good seasons in a row; trust this Giant fan, I know. Finally, the Super Bowl curse continues, the Cardinals will finish 6-10, Kurt Warner gets hurt and miss the playoffs.


6. Seattle will just miss the playoffs and fail in their sleeper status this year. I think too many people are on their bandwagon. I just think they finish 9-7 and lose out on a playoff berth. Now if the Seahawks don't make the playoffs, the sleeper of the year is the San Francisco 49ers. I believe in Mike Singletary more than Jim Mora Jr. and even though Michael Crabtree not being there hurts, I think Frank Gore plays great and they stop enough on defense to also go 9-7 and win a tiebreaker.


7. Houston will be the AFC sleeper, though they really aren't one. This is a team that is getting picked by people who know that 5+ teams are new to the playoffs each year. I just love that offense and Mario Williams will be a beast (another player who could win my MVP). It's also a winnable schedule with games against Miami, the Jets, Buffalo, Cincy, St. Louis, Arizona, Oakland and I'm sure they can win at least 4 more. They join the Ravens as the AFC Wild Cards as the Chargers, Colts, Steelers and Pats win divisions again.


8. Washington and New Orleans also make the playoffs. The Saints become the latest team in the NFC South to go from the cellar to the postseason as the division champ, while the Redskins surprisingly carry their defense in the playoffs like in the past few years. They will be joined by obviously the Niners, Bears as the wild card and Packers and Giants as division winners.


9. This season will continue as The Tyson Zone of sports seasons. Simmons is right, the stories in the league will only get crazier; I won't be surprised to hear that a player smoked crack an hour before a game, like in Playmakers. Two serious issues facing the league, the drop in attendance this year coming up and the potential lockout. Somehow, the experience of watching a game live has to get better, because I'm better off watching at home or a friends place with NFL Sunday Ticket. Pricing has to go down so the real fans can watch the game and effect it with crowd noise. As for the lockout, do everything in your power Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith to avoid it. Problem is the owners don't know what they want, which almost derailed things in 2006. I hope sports fans are prepared because 2011 is shaping to be a year which both the NFL and NBA could have a work stoppage and MLB and the NHL have to have contracts expire around that time as well.


10. Here's the final picks: AFC playoffs have Pittsburgh beating the Texans and Baltimore beating Indy in Round 1. The Chargers beat the Colts while the Steelers upset the Patriots in Round 2. San Diego knocks off the defending champs in the AFC Championship game. The NFC starts with the Bears beating the Niners, while the Saints take care of the Redskins. The Packers beat Chicago in Round 2 as the Giants beat the Saints in the final game at Giants Stadium. The Pack get their revenge on the Giants and head to the Super Bowl. Our winner, Green Bay sticking it to Favre as they beat the Chargers. Regardless of who goes to the Super Bowl, this one will be not be thought of as a great one immediately following the game.

NFL Preview Part II

Now that we're switching from the AFC to the NFC, one thing is quite clear, this conference is more wide open. It seems like only four teams are capable of winning the AFC, while the NFC has eight such teams. It seems right that the NFC is open, last year all but the Giants didn't make it in 2007. However, unlike past years when the NFC's parity belied a weakness that gave us Rex Grossman in a Super Bowl, the conference has now become good and it's right up there with the AFC. Let's continue with the NFC preview.


NFC East- One thing's for sure, this is still the best division in the league, since the Detroit Lions still call the NFC North home. The Giants and Eagles basically split when it comes to who should win the East by most people, as well as the NFC itself. New York is set at RB, Eli Manning is entrenched at QB, the offensive line is good, the pass rush should be great and I expect the secondary to play very well (best secondary since Mark Collins and Everson Walls were there). Every story you hear about the Giants this offseason was their receivers and how they didn't do the job after Plaxico Burress shot himself. The fact is, when a playmaker (who wasn't playing well in the first place) is just taken out during the season, you can't just replace him (also the case with Osi Umenyiora). Now the Giants are ready to go into the new campaign with Domenick Hixon, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks. One more thing to remember, the Pats showed you don't need great receivers to win a title, as did the Ravens.


The Eagles are along with the Vikings the team everyone will watch because of the Michael Vick dynamic. They will try to see if Vick disrupts the offense, or turns it into a lethal one. I, on the other hand, will pay attention to their defense now that Jim Johnson has sadly passed away, Brian Dawkins left to Denver and Stewart Bradley was injured for the season. Can Sean McDermott maintain that defense at a high level? Other things to look at are will Donovan McNabb stay healthy, as well as Brian Westbrook. Either way, look out for a look at LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Macklin as two new weapons, on an already improved offense.


The team lack buzz is the team over the last few years had more buzz than the NFC West combined. Dallas comes into this season with the only thing being talked about is the new game of who can hit the Cowboys Stadium scoreboard. Is it like the catwalk in Tropicana Field where it's out of bounds when off the side, but a live ball down the middle? Will Tony Romo be able to hit it when he sees Jessica Simpson making out with John Mayer? Speaking of Romo, he no longer has TO as a receiver, thus it's time for Roy Williams to prove if he can be a number one target. I think the Cowboy defense will be good as DeMarcus Ware will challenge Michael Strahan's sack record. Two questions, can Romo finally win in December and can Wade Phillips avoid being fired for Mike Shanahan or Mike Holmgren.


In our nation's capital, the Redskins seem just like last year's team. Now obviously, Albert Haynesworth was a big move, but this defense was good already and I can't see him turning them into all-time great. Which means they need to score some points and Washington will again have trouble. They still lack a great receiver and Santana Moss isn't getting younger. Also, Clinton Portis, while great on the field, is always hurt. As for Jason Campbell, he will be punished as the offensive line isn't a typical Redskins line. Chances are, if Jim Zorn can't turn them around, he will be out the door, along with Campbell chained to his neck.


NFC North- We go from the best division to the most interesting as the NFC has three legit teams that can win the Super Bowl. Let's start with the Bears, since they made the flashiest move in trading for Jay Cutler (and because he's my picture). I don't have to ask Jake from BUSE that the streets of Chicago embraced their first good QB since Jim McMahon and possibly great one since Sid Luckman. Their season will rest on if the Bears defense can improve somewhere closer to 2006 levels. My season will rest on whether Matt Forte takes the leap, since three of my fantasy teams include him. Also, can Cutler turn a poor group of receivers into an above average group? If so, they will contend, if not, they won't. Sometimes picking football is that simple.


While the Cutler trade involved picking up a QB entering his prime, the Vikings signing Brett Favre is the case of a team so desperate that they pick up any has-been or never-was at QB. After last year's dreadful playoff performance, the Vikings knew they had to replace Tavaris Jackson as a starter and no one was excited after they traded for Sage "Finds New Ways to Lose" Rosenfels. Thus, Brad Childress with his Tony Kornheiser beard (our first great PTI look-a-like since Wilbon and Chi McBride) visited Hattesburg, Miss to bring back Brett Favre, even giving him the airport pickup, the most binding of social contracts. Now, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, they have a great run defense and a quality pass rush led by Jared Allen. They needed a game manager QB who can make a play or two. Only once did Favre prove he can do that, 2007 and that ended with an OT interception in the NFC Championship game and the next chapter of Favre's epic that he read from Roger Clemens.


Favre's old team, the Packers, have moved on from last year's drama and now are primed to have a good season as well. The Vikings have a manageable first five games, but Green Bay can really be 9-2 or 10-1 after Thanksgiving; that's how easy that schedule is. Aaron Rodgers is ready to build on his success this season (another player I need for most fantasy teams). The defense and Ryan Grant need bounce back years this season, which I believe will happen. Dom Capers coming in to coach the defense is akin to having Norv Turner as your offensive coordinator and the switch to the 3-4 will be much more seamless than if anyone else (except Wade Phillips or Dick LeBeau) made it. They also have a terrific secondary to get over any kinks in the front seven.


Here's my next pre-prediction column prediction, the Detroit Lions will win a game this year. That being said, they won't pull a Miami and make the playoffs. This year will be about watching Matt Stafford throw the ball to Calvin Johnson and seeing if anything else on this team can get better. The key question for Detroit, is Jim Schwartz a good coach or overrated as a Jeff Fisher assistant. Gregg Williams was in the middle, since he's a good coordinator, but a bad head coach. Schwartz must be a competent coach if the Lions are to have future success.


NFC South- As they switch from facing the AFC West and NFC North to AFC and NFC East, this division should drop from last year. The favorite to win is the Falcons who added Tony Gonzalez to an already impressive offense with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White. The biggest issue with Atlanta is defense since they didn't play any last year. If their offense slows down in any way, they will miss the playoffs. Ryan can't have a sophomore slump and if he doesn't, the Falcons have the offense to win this division. Keep an eye out on if Mike Peterson makes the defense play better, particularly at linebacker.

The champs from a year ago, Carolina are in the crossroads. They still have a terrific rushing attack with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith still plays here and their defensive line still has Julius Peppers rushing the QB. However, do you really think Jake Delhomme can recover from his all-time stinkbomb of a playoff game? That's how the Panthers season could come down to, though I believe their defense is overrated. I mean, imagine being a Panthers fan and you see Delhomme throw an interception, you'd think to yourself that you should leave the game at that point to avoid watching a hanging.

The best pure passer in the NFC has the Saints lurking as a possible sleeper top team in this league. Drew Brees I believe will be even better this season, which is say a lot after throwing for over 5,000 yards last year. The defense was the reason New Orleans went 8-8 since they stopped no one. The key addition is the hiring of Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator, along with signing Darren Sharper. If Williams does what he's done in the past for defenses, the Saints could go to the Super Bowl. If not, they will be 8-8 again.


Tampa Bay is the last of the three teams to fire their offensive coordinator in the last week, giving some unwelcome spotlight to new coach Raheem Morris. It's one thing for a desperate Dick Jauron to fire his OC, but for first year coaches Todd Haley and Morris, I'm puzzled. The defense will be good at times, but it's in transition now that some of the older players have left, particularly Derrick Brooks. Derrick Ward has joined them in the backfield and with Earnest Graham and possibly Cadillac Williams, the running game should be good. The rest of the offense will wait for Josh Freeman's development.


NFC West- This division is still the worst in the league, since there's no San Diego's here. Now I know what you're thinking, what about the Cardinals, defending NFC Champs and almost Super Bowl winners? Well, the fact is they didn't win, and remember the loser jinx means they won't make the playoffs. How can they break this? Another great year from Kurt Warner and the defense to play like they did in the playoffs. They also could use a breakout rookie year for Beanie Wells, so they can have some sort of running game to complement Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. As long as the Cardinals win their divisional games, they will have their shot to head back to the playoffs.


The biggest threat to challenge Arizona is the old standby, the Seahawks. Seattle is healthy this season and in circles, the favorite to win this division. It really does come down to Matt Hasselbeck playing this year (much like Carson Palmer in Cincy). The passing game is better now that TJ Housmandzadeh is catching balls for him. Aaron Curry will be the best rookie in this draft and strengthens a pretty good group of linebackers in the league. Their defense should play well as a whole and if they get anything out of the running game, watch out.


"I want winners" is the motto of coach Mike Singletary of San Francisco. The way the Niners end 2008 was good enough to gain early sleeper status. I even have a San Fran NFC Championship bet on my refrigerator door. Unfortunately, I wish my bet was an over/under, not a Super Bowl appearance since the Niners won't go that far. The Michael Crabtree mess hurts this ballclub because if there was one player they needed, it was a big play receiver to give Shaun Hill a legitimate target. The Niners need Frank Gore to prove worthy of his fantasy status and then some, as well as continued improvement from the defense led by Patrick Willis.


Finally, the Rams led by Stevie Spags. Spagnuolo takes over an awful team from a year ago who need a change in culture and attitude. The good news, Steven Jackson could be back as the Steven Jackson of a few years ago (who was number two in fantasy draft behind LDT). The bad news, Marc Bulger is still there and though he's not awful, he's not good either. On defense, they will be better as Leonard Little and Chris Long will get a chance to rush the QB like Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora did. But more than anything, this is a rebuilding year which 5-8 wins is a good thing for St. Louis.


Finally, here's the pick for tonight's opening game. I have the Steelers (-6.5) over the Titans since the defending champs always win the first game next season and it won't change my view on either team unless there's a major injury, which for tomorrow, I will be sure to highlight in case I need to.

What If Sports for the Past 25 Years

Now that we are in the dog days of sports and some time before football season, I figured what better than to start my series of "What If" blog posts in the four major sports for the past 25 years. In addition to the four major sports, I'm also going to write "What Ifs" for each NY-area teams. Let's start with the NFL, since I have neglected the NFL for most of the live of this blog, which certainly won't be the case once the season starts. There are hundreds of "what ifs" that you can discuss.



Every game has a what if the other team won; every offseason has a what if some team didn't sign this guy. But here are the ten best what if questions that can be asked (excluding the Giants and Jets) since the Raiders won Super Bowl XVIII.


10. What if the NFL didn't pick Carolina and Jacksonville as expansion cities in 1993?


After the NFL expanded in 1976 and added the Seahawks and Buccaneers, the NFL kept itself at 28 teams throughout the 1980s. In 1992, the NFL decided to expand to 30 teams, with Baltimore, Charlotte, Jacksonville, Memphis, and St. Louis being the leading candidates for expansion. Now, I know what you're thinking, isn't the real what if question have to do with the Colts leaving for Indianapolis in 1984? While certainly a what if, Baltimore had their chance to regain a team for the 1995 season. Meanwhile, for much of the process, Charlotte, St. Louis and Baltimore were the favorites and Jacksonville almost dropped out and only stayed in the hunt at the urging of Paul Tagliabue and other top-NFL officials.


In October 1993, the Carolina Panthers were in business and the second team would come a month later. St. Louis was thought they were going to win and even sold "St. Louis Stallions" t-shirts, before the NFL voted to put a team in Jacksonville and the Jaguars were born. St. Louis was at that time building a domed stadium and became attractive to any teams looking to move. After Bob Kraft bought the Pats and kept them in New England, the Rams would make the move to St. Louis. Baltimore would do to Cleveland what Indy did to them and stole the Browns, while Memphis would be the first stop after the Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee. Meanwhile, both the Panthers and the Jaguars have had more or less a mixed history of success both on-and-off the field.


I contend that if the NFL doesn't expand to Jacksonville, one of the teams that moved wouldn't have because I can't see any team going to Jacksonville. There, you compete with the Dolphins, Bucs and Falcons, as well as all the college football in the market. If they stay in Charlotte and expand to St. Louis, I think the Rams move to Nashville/Memphis and Houston perhaps stays. If Baltimore is the pick and not St. Louis, the Browns stay in Cleveland. I do think if Charlotte was the big loser, they would be in more of a position for relocation because it was a faster growing area and not as much to share in terms of football (it's more basketball territory). And finally, we avoid having a Super Bowl played in a city as bad for the Super Bowl as Jacksonville.


9b. What if the Tennessee Titans don't pull off the Music City Miracle against the Bills?


The Bills had just taken a 16-15 lead over the Titans in the first playoff game played in Nashville. What happened next was NFL history as Kevin Dyson took the lateral pass from Frank Wycheck and ran for the touchdown. This led to the Titans lone Super Bowl run and five years of relative success, while the Buffalo Bills haven't returned to the playoffs since. So what if the Bills won (whether the play doesn't work or ruled a forward pass)? Well, the Bills would then face the Colts in the Divisional Round, but other than that, Wade Phillips would of still had Rob Johnson start at QB the following season and actually would of been proven right if they won that game, after the controversy of benching Doug Flutie for Johnson in the playoff game. The Bills had a chance to reach the Super Bowl, since the Titans ended up beating both the Colts and Jaguars and Phillips more than likely is thought of as a much better coach. Of course, the Bills could flame out since Wade Phillips is the coach.


As for the Titans, this game ended a transitional period for this franchise, but if they lose, this team could have regressed to a mediocre team who may or may not make the playoffs. It also would appear to downplay the death of Steve McNair last Saturday as we wouldn't have seen him in that Super Bowl where he was famous.


9a. What if the Houston Oilers hold on to beat the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card game?


Every football fan is aware that the Houston Oilers blew a 35-3 lead to the Bills in Buffalo in the 1992 Wild Card and was seeming cosmic justice that the Titans beat the Bills in the Music City Miracle seven years later. However, if the Oilers don't blow the lead, I don't think there is a Tennessee Titans today. The Oilers would have moved on to Pittsburgh the following week after beating the Bills and knowing Bill Cowher's postseason record, Houston had a legit chance to win there. Who knows, the Oilers could of faced the Cowboys in an all-Texas Super Bowl showdown. As for after 1993, the Oilers don't hire Buddy Ryan because of a defensive collapse and no punching incident occurs, as well as the dysfunctional nature of that whole season that saw them become pariahs in Houston.


As for Buffalo, they get to avoid the embarrassment of losing four straight Super Bowls since they lose early, but I think history happens to treat the Bills better than one would think. I, for one, am of the mind that the Bills were usually the inferior team in these Super Bowls and rightfully lost. I also think it was a great accomplishment to go to four straight Super Bowls, which is difficult because if you win them all, the league wants to knock you off and the losers get demoralized (look at this decades Super Bowl losers year-afters, except Seattle). One of two things happen to the Bills, either they begin to decline or they avoid stagnation and take advantage of the early loss to improve the team to win.



8. What if Dan Snyder never bought the Redskins?

Jack Kent Cooke's death ended an era of dominance of Washington Redskins football and the Redskins since Snyder bought the team have been at best, inconsistent, and at worst, a joke. This team was never a downright awful, but every year, whenever free agency starts, Dan Snyder signs two or three name guys to huge deals and the Redskins go on and finish 8-8 or 7-9, something like that. He's made many puzzling coaching decisions such as firing Norv Turner after a 7-6 start in 2000, firing Marty Schottenheimer the following season and replacing him with Steve Spurrier. So what if Synder never bought the team?

The Redskins probably use free agency like everyone else, signs one big deal a year, and uses the draft, like you still have to do, to improve. It also leads to a better front office and not the owner or an old Joe Gibbs making all the decisions. And judging by the lack of quality in the NFC for this decade, the Skins perhaps make more than three playoff appearance and they definitely don't go through the Steve Spurrier era, meaning no Danny Wuerffel era or the Shane Matthews Band experiments.

7. What if the "tuck rule" didn't exist?

Here's the first one of these what ifs that effect championships. Going back to the 2001 AFC Divisional Game, the Raiders recovered an apparent fumble to solidify a win against the Patriots, when the play was overturned by review because of a little-known rule now infamously known as the Tuck Rule. The rule means that if the QB brings the ball back to him in a throwing motion and the ball comes out, it's an incomplete pass. Because of the rule, the Patriots kept the ball, tied it in regulation and win in overtime. They would then go on to win Super Bowl XXXVI and begin a dynasty.

As for if the rule didn't exist, the Raiders win after recovering the ball and they head to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship Game. After that, I believe the Raiders beat the Steelers in the Championship Game and go to the Super Bowl a year early. I don't think they beat the Rams as the Pats defensive gameplan was key, but a Super Bowl appearance keeps Jon Gruden in Oakland for the 2002 season, meaning the Bucs don't win the following Super Bowl, the Raiders do. Also the Raider franchise, as a whole, avoids becoming the train wreck of a franchise they have become though I'm sure Gruden would of been fired by Al Davis by now. I don't think the Pats were as effected as one would think because Tom Brady stays at QB and they probably play the 2002 season more hungry without a title. Adam Vinatieri on the other hand, loses his reputation as a clutch kicker, since his three biggest kicks occured in that playoff run, meaning he goes from possible hall of famer, to just another kicker.

6. What if Trent Green doesn't get injured in the 1999 preseason?

The Rams were due for big things in the 1999 season as they traded for Marshall Faulk, drafted Torry Holt and signed Trent Green. It seemed like the season was over before it started when Green injured his knee and was out for the season. This led to the rise of Kurt Warner, as he took over for Green and led the Rams to the Super Bowl championship. As Warner turned into America's underdog, Green continued an up-and-down career with the Chiefs and Dolphins.

If he didn't get hurt, he would of ended up with the underdog role, not Warner. People forget, Green was an eighth-round draft pick of San Diego, toiled as a backup, bounced around both the NFL and CFL before his breakout season with the Redskins in 1998, leading to his contract with the Rams. He also fit better with Dick Vermeil than Warner did, hence his success with the Chiefs during Vermeil's tenure there. As for Warner, he probably never gets a real chance to play and doesn't get to go to three Super Bowls and become America's favorite QB this side of Brett Favre. Speaking of...

5. What if Brett Favre doesn't beat the Bengals in Week 3 of the 1992 season?

After Don Majkowski got injured during a Week 3 game against Cincinnati, Brett Favre took over for Green Bay and lead them to a comeback victory over the Bengals, punctuated with a 35-yard touchdown pass to Kitrick Taylor. After that, Majkowski became Wally Pipp to Favre's Lou Gehrig, as Favre led the Packers to a winning season in '92, the playoffs in '93, and the Super Bowl in '96; not to mention the countless memories in the league since.

However, if the Packers didn't win that game, they drop to 0-3 and the Brett Favre legend doesn't start as hot as it did, and maybe he remains the failure in Atlanta. If that's the case, the Green Bay franchise never has the great run it had in the 90s. And what no one talks about, the Bengals would have been 3-0 under new coach David Shula and instead of being a poster child of nepotistic coaching hires, the Bengals continue a comeback season in 1992 and avoid the awful play this team has displayed since Mike Brown took over as owner after Paul Brown's death.

4. What if Joe Montana doesn't get hurt in the 1990 NFC Championship Game?

The Niners were winning 13-9 against the Giants when Leonard Marshall crushed Montana in the fourth quarter. The Giants would eventually win after LT recovers a Roger Craig fumble and Matt Bahr made the final of five field goals to win it 15-13, ending the three-peat hopes of San Francisco. Montana ended up spending the next two seasons injured; leading to Steve Young's ascension to the starting job and the unpleasantness of watching Joe Montana in the Chiefs uniform (actually the most successful Schottenheimer Kansas City teams)

However, if Montana stays healthy, you could argue that the 49ers would be more comfortable being a little more aggressive. I think that the gameplan they had would have happened whether it was Montana or Young playing behind center, meaning they'd run with a 13-12 lead. Young's career, however, would start a few years later and if he makes the Hall of Fame, it wouldn't be with San Francisco.

3. What if the Cowboys don't trade Herschel Walker to Minnesota during the 1989 season?

After the Cowboys 3-13 record in 1988, they were worse in 1989 during Jimmy Johnson's first year. Knowing Dallas needed a major makeover, Johnson put Walker on the trade block in 1989. Despite interest from the Giants, Cleveland and Atlanta, the Vikings offered eight draft picks and five players and the Cowboys gladly took it. Walker never played with the Vikings as well as he did with the Dallas, while the Cowboys became a champion in 4 years, using the picks to get Emmitt Smith and Darren Woodson and used other picks for trades.

However, this trade doesn't happen if Dallas accepts Cleveland's offer of a player, two first rounders and three second rounders. The Browns were looking for another weapon for Bernie Kosar and maybe a different system would have benefitted Walker as well as setting up an interesting combo of him and Eric Metcalf at both RB and kick returner. As for Dallas, the haul they get for Herschel isn't as significant and might not yield the same windfall as the added players and picks did from Minnesota. Maybe the Dallas dynasty doesn't start until 1993 or 1994 and after that, the salary cap is more of a factor.

2. What if Drew Bledsoe doesn't get hurt by Mo Lewis after the second game of the 2001 season?

The Patriots were about to go to 0-2 when Lewis hit Bledsoe later in their game against the Jets, leading to unproven Tom Brady becoming the starter. The rest is history as the Pats won three of the next four Super Bowls. Now, I kind of discussed the Pats back when talking about the Tuck Rule, but I felt this is a more appropriate what if for the Patriots.

Anyway, if Bledsoe doesn't get hurt, the Patriots don't make the playoffs and have another year like 2000. The year before, the Pats were 5-11 and looked like they were going to continue dropping. Bill Belichick was in his second year there and wasn't ready to bench Bledsoe yet and I'm sure people in Boston wondered if Belichick was going to fail like he did in Cleveland. And he would of; either in 2001 or 2002, the Pats would of fired Belichick and we may not know who Tom Brady is. However, with a fired Belichick by 2002, he certainly could have rejoined Bill Parcells in Dallas and with Belichick as a defensive coordinator, the Cowboys would of had more success and for a bonus, maybe Belichick convinces Parcells to bring Brady to America's Team.

1. What if the 49ers didn't draft Jerry Rice in the 1985 NFL Draft?


The San Francisco 49ers won the Super Bowl after the 1984 season after going 15-1 during the season. No one thought the Niners needed to improve but Bill Walsh found an unknown receiver at Mississippi Valley State named Jerry Rice that he wanted to draft. Thus he traded his first two picks to the Patriots for the 16th pick to get Rice. The rest is history as the Niners picked up the greatest receiver in NFL history, whose records are Gretzky-like. I also believe it's the singular reason the San Francisco dynasty continued into the 90s.


So what if the Niners failed to draft him? Well there were two receivers drafted ahead of Rice; Al Toon and Eddie Brown. Both had their moments and were Pro Bowls, but neither guy was durable enough to last past 1992. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were rumored to be interested in Rice and had the 17th pick (likely the reason the Niners traded up). It's obvious that if the Jets or Bengals drafted Rice earlier in the draft, they're teams would have been altered (each had franchise QB's at the time). If the Cowboys drafted him, Tom Landry would have coached past 1988 and if Jerry Jones still buys the team, he would work with Landry since the 3-13 season in 1988 season doesn't happen and perhaps the 1990's dynasty doesn't happen. If the Patriots hold the pick at 16 and take Rice, they have him and Irving Fryar teamed up and Tony Eason's life would be easier and they have a puncher's chance to beat the Bears in Super Bowl XX, instead of getting throughly whooped.


As for the 49ers, they're dynasty comes to an end in the next three or so years because Jerry Rice was the player that transformed this team and allowed them to go from Dwight Clark and Freddie Solomon to Rice and John Taylor. Solomon played his last year in 1985, while Clark retired in 1987. Without Rice, maybe the Niners last until the end of Montana's career, but I can't see Steve Young continue it without his favorite weapon. Looking back, the possibilities of Rice not ending up in San Fran arguably effect six different Super Bowl champs and more that aren't directly related to the Niners, Cowboys, Pats and Bengals. That's what makes this the greatest "what if" of the past 25 years of the NFL.