AFC Playoff Picture

Yesterday, the NFC playoff picture was laid out here; today it's the AFC's turn. Before we get into all the big games, let's first say goodbye to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. At this point, 8-8 likely doesn't make the playoffs (especially when the Bengals and Steelers face one another) and it's just not worth it to include either team anymore. Besides, I'd have to include the Chargers and Browns in that case and neither team is reaching the playoffs either. Here are the teams they do have a chance.


Division Leaders

Houston (11-2)- Clinched a playoff berth. Last 3 games (Ind, Min, @Ind)

The chance to put the AFC in their rearview mirror was what awaited the Houston Texans last night and they fell on their faces in New England. Instead of a two game lead over Denver and clinching a bye, they now can be overtaken by the Colts. Even if the Texans hold on to home-field advantage, no one will think they are capable of going to the Super Bowl, since a team with a good QB should be able to carve them up.

New England (10-3)- Clinched AFC East. Last 3 games (SF, @Jac, Mia)

It's never a surprise when the Pats score 42 points on someone (though, it would be if they do so against the 49ers). With their win, the Pats immediately become the AFC favorites and in terms of playoff outlook, they have an easy road for a bye and good chance at getting the top seed. This week against San Francisco is the only worry for New England left on its schedule.

Denver (10-3)- Clinched AFC South. Last 3 games (@Balt, Clev, KC)

The Broncos are in the same boat as the Pats, only they lost to both New England and Houston. Nevertheless, they have a couple easy games to finish the year, with a date with the Ravens the one that will determine if they are playing in the first round, or if they will get a bye. Right now, Brady vs Manning is a Round 2 matchup, but let's see if this can play itself out enough so that it becomes the AFC Championship game instead.

Baltimore (9-4)- Last 3 games (Den, NYG, @Cin)

The Ravens lost a disheartening game to the Redskins, but in the grand scheme of things, they had a good day as both the Bengals and Steelers lost. Looking at the standings, the only way the Ravens miss the playoffs is if the Steelers and Bengals tie and win their other games, while the Ravens lose out. Baltimore should beat any team if tied at 9-7. Still, the division isn't decided yet and a win assures them of a home playoff game. Also, they still maintain a tiebreaker over the Pats and if they win out and 49ers win Sunday, a bye is in play for the Ravens.


Wild Card Teams

Indianapolis (9-4)- Last 3 games (@Hou, @KC, Hou)

Well, the Colts barely beat the Titans, and got the loss by the Texans to give the Colts control of their own destiny. Win three games and Indianapolis miraculously goes from first to worst to first in the AFC South. Even if they don't get the South, they just need one more win to clinch a playoff spot which no one saw coming in Andrew Luck's rookie season.

Pittsburgh (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Dal, Cin, Clev)

Of course, the Steelers drop the easy one to San Diego (and give the Chargers a tiebreaker if the incredible happens). Week 16 is still looking like a play-in game between them and the Bengals, even though the Jets have started to make things close in the AFC. Remember, the Steelers beat the Jets in Week 2, giving them the tiebreaker over them.


Contenders

Cincinnati (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Phil, @Pit, Bal)

The Bengals also lost this week, but once again, their playoff position more than likely will be decided by their game with the Steelers, though they will need another win before the season ends. Chances are, the Bengals and Steelers won't get the AFC North, but if either wins out, the Ravens is tough enough to allow for one of them to come back.

N.Y. Jets (6-7)- Last 3 games (@Ten, SD, @Buf)

The Jets remain on this list by their win over the awful Jaguars and the two losses by the Steelers and Bengals. One is essentially guaranteed of eight wins, so the Jets need to win out to have a chance at the playoffs. Of course, why would anyone want the Jets to make the playoffs? Every week, win or lose, the Jets have negative attention. But with an easy schedule, playoffs aren't impossible.

AFC Playoff Picture

A running series that should have started a couple weeks ago, it's time to look at the playoff picture as the NFL begins to close it's season. Since we still have the Giants and Redskins playing tonight, the AFC is the perfect place to start. Going into yesterday, all four AFC Division leaders had a chance to clinch playoff berths. Here's a look at the AFC playoff picture after yesterday's games (Chiefs, Jags and Raiders are eliminated; Browns, Titans and Chargers may as well be).

Division Leaders

Houston (11-1)- Clinched a playoff berth. Last 4 games: @NE, Indy, Minn, @Indy.

Stand as the top team in the AFC right now and will play New England next Monday with a chance to lock up home-field throughout the playoffs. They would need losses by Denver and Baltimore to officially clinch, but they would own head-to-head tiebreakers over all three teams in case the Ravens or Broncos win. Not an easy schedule to close it out, so a loss would open the door for a second trip to New England potentially in January.

New England (9-3)- Clinched AFC East. Last 4 games: Hou, SF, @Jac, Mia.

Their win over the Dolphins locked up the division, the Pats 10th AFC East title in the last 12 seasons. They currently win a tiebreaker over both Denver and Baltimore by having a better conference record than both (since Denver and Baltimore didn't play yet, head-to-head don't count). If they can beat the Texans at home, then they are very alive for the top seed. If they lose, they would still be in the hunt for the other 1st round bye, especially with the Ravens and Broncos playing each other in Week 15.

Baltimore (9-3)- Last 4 games: @Wash, Den, NYG, @Cin

The Ravens could have clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Steelers. By failing to do so, their playoff position became a little more precarious. That schedule they have left is pretty brutal and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 9-7. They hold the 3 spot right now due to playing two more conference games than Denver.

Denver (9-3)- Clinched AFC West. Last 4 games: @Oak, @Balt, Clev, KC

It's clear that the Broncos have the easiest schedule to close the 2012 season. As long as they beat the Ravens, the Broncos are probably the favorite to land the two seed in the AFC (perhaps the top seed if the Texans struggle). Would lose head-to-head tiebreakers with Houston and New England, but a win over Baltimore would counter that.

Wild Cards

Indianapolis (8-4)- Last 4 games: Ten, @Hou, @KC, Hou

The Colts tremendous comeback against the Lions maintain their place in the AFC playoff picture as the 1st Wild Card and 5th seed. While the Houston games aren't easy, they have winnable games with Tennessee and Kansas City. And who knows; if the Texans lose to the Pats next Monday and the Colts win, they are two games behind for the division with 3 to play, controlling their destiny for the AFC South.

Pittsburgh (7-5)- Last 4 games: SD, @Dal, Cin, Clev

They are in the 6th spot because of their Sunday night win against the Bengals back in October. Somehow, the Steelers have survived this stretch without Ben Roethlisberger by getting that comeback win over the Ravens. Keeps them both in the playoffs if the season ended today and still gives the Steelers an outside shot at the division.

Contender

Cincinnati (7-5)- Last 4 games: Dal, @Phil, @Pitt, Balt

Cincinnati had their own comeback win by beating the sorry Chargers while being down 13-10 in the 4th quarter. This four-game winning streak came out of nowhere, but it's brought the Bengals in the heart of the AFC playoff race. Looking back at the Bengals, they've only once made the playoffs in back-to-back years (1981 and 1982, a strike year). These two games with the Cowboys and Eagles are must-wins, since it would be harder to sweep the Steelers and Ravens.

Mathematically alive, but pretty much done

NY Jets (5-7)- Last 4 games: @Jac, @Ten, SD, @Buf

Thanks to Greg McElroy, the Jets remains with faint playoff hopes. They needed two of Indy, Pitt and Cincy to lose yesterday, though. All won and despite an easy finishing schedule, the Jets have little chance of cracking through. 9-7 is a must for them.

Buffalo (5-7)- Last 4 games: Stl, Sea, @Mia, NYJ

The Bills also kept slight playoff hopes alive by knocking off the Jaguars at home. They also have a schedule that can get them to 9-7 since they have the Seahawks at home. Knowing the Bills, they probably will lose to the Rams to eliminate themselves.

Miami (5-7)- Last 4 games: @SF, Jac, Buf, @NE

What could have been for the Dolphins. After their dominant win over the Jets, Miami was 4-3 and schedule was seemingly easy. Then they lost 3 straight, two to the Titans and Bills and now they're also in need of winning out. Good luck with beating the Niners and Pats on the road to do that.

Drunken Jets Ramblings

We all know about Joe Namath's interview with Suzy Kolber back in 2003. This website will forever be grateful to Joe for that. Now, we have another former Jet who decided to ramble on during a Jets night game. Mark Gastineau was inducted into the Jets Ring of Honor last night with Wesley Walker. When he went to speak, um, let's just say he seemed, as Joe Theismann said back for Joe Namath, "happy". You can listen to Gastineau here.

Gastineau starts off by imploring fans to not boo the Jets (I didn't watch the game with sound, but I'm pretty sure that didn't work), then more or less thanks God and Woody Johnson and says that MetLife Stadium is beautiful (not really) and ends the speech with a Hallelujah (which is something that we all know Gastineau was to say regularly).

With this speech, Gastineau matches Namath in his quest to be the all-time Jets attention whore. Unfortunately, that honor already belongs to Tim Tebow. Which only leads to one thought: when does Tebow have his awkward, drunken rambling during a Jets game?

Conference Championship Sunday

Today is one of the five best days of sport in America and we look forward to two conference championship games that should epitomize what we consider as "real" football; defense and cold weather. All four teams play good defense and both games are being played in temperatures below 20 degrees. The interesting thing about today's games is that we expect them to be close. If you see the prior meetings, all the games were down to the wire. So does everything hold to form today?


Let's start with Green Bay and Chicago, who have their rubber match. The case for Chicago winning is this: Cold day and a tough field can slow down the Packers offense and Jay Cutler at his best. Here's the weird thing about today's games, Jay Cutler is the one QB who I'm afraid can either rise or sink his team. If he comes out like last week and throws a touchdown or two, I think it will get the Bears defense to play better. If he comes out flat, the Packers will runaway with this one like they did against the Falcons (though, I figure a runaway today would be 20-3). The other thing interesting, even though the Packers are the better offensive team, I happen to think a higher scoring game favors the Bears, unless the Packers are doing all the scoring. Otherwise, I still say that while the Bears have a good defense, if you block Julius Peppers, you can beat them. The Packers have the better all around defense and Clay Matthews, is tougher to stop. Add that the Packers have found a running back in James Starks who can free up Aaron Rodgers to have a little mystery in the plays and don't see how the Bears win. I have the Packers winning 24-14.


Onto the Jets and Steelers who it seems like a toss up. The Jets won the earlier meeting, but the Steelers didn't have Troy Polamalu. And if Jason Taylor gets blocked late in the 4th quarter, that game is likely tied and would have gone to OT. The two things the Jets must do: score first like the last time and avoid turnovers in their own side of the field. You don't want to give Ben Roethlisberger a short field, its a guaranteed score, just ask Baltimore. For Pittsburgh, their line play, particularly from the tackles will be key. If they give Roethlisberger time, he'll find success, whether the Jets cover the Steelers WR's well or not. So the defensive key for the Jets is to get to Ben quickly, don't count on getting a lot of coverage sacks. Offensively for the Jets, balance is necessary, as well as giving Mark Sanchez some easy passes to gain a rhythm. The interesting thing about the Jets today is that a) they don't have revenge on their minds and haven't said much, unlike last week and b) also unlike last week and the week prior, they aren't facing a particularly proficient offense today, so the gameplan will be more interesting as the Jets probably would go about their game the way they normally would.


So who wins? Here's what I believe: The Steelers always seems to force a turnover, and that turnover proves huge. I also believe the Steelers will run the ball better than the Jets, or at the very least, the threat of the run will open up more passing for Ben. You sense where I'm going, I have Pittsburgh outlasting the Jets 20-17, which for picks purposes means I'm taking the Jets +4. How's that for a hedge?

Divisional Sunday

We now move onto Sunday's games, but first, let's recap yesterday. I probably was as right as I've ever been as the Falcons didn't look good in the spotlight, Aaron Rodgers was just tremendous and played QB yesterday as good as the position can be played. Meanwhile, the Ravens once again couldn't finish a close game while Ben Roethlisberger made a play late as he always does. So what's on tap for today? Probably with me getting both games wrong since I got both right yesterday, but he's my previews anyway.


Last week, I was so down on the Seahawks and they proved me wrong. So does this mean I should go with the Seahawks this week? Not so fast, unlike the Saints, I don't believe the Bears will take Seattle lightly because they lost to them in Chicago this year. Also, back in the beginning of the season, the Bears offensive line was atrocious. Now, it's still not good, but it's better at home. I also don't think the Seahawks will travel well, and the Bears defense could use a good home performance after a few games that they've been shredded at Soldier Field. The real question, should you lay the 10 in this game? Here's the answer, when the Seahawks lose, they lose big. So if you like the Bears, lay the 10 and don't think twice about it. I have the Bears winning 31-14.


Now to the nightcap and the Jets and Pats. So much has been said all week, but that doesn't matter once kickoff happens. Here's the best case for the Jets: They win the toss and they must receive so they have the chance to establish the offense early. I know they like to defer the opening kickoff, but I won't give New England the ball to start the game. Also, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene can control the clock, the Jets OL can outplay the Pats front seven. When that happens, Mark Sanchez needs to be accurate with his throws, even if they are short passes. Defensively, they need to attack Tom Brady, because the passive approach won't work with him. Brady would eat up the Jets secondary if he has the time. To be fair, I think Peyton Manning would have if he had Dallas Clark and Austin Collie.

So what will happen? I just don't believe Sanchez, after all the struggles in the last few weeks, plus the possibly still injured shoulder will play consistent enough and while it won't be the 45-3 thrashing that it was in December, Brady will still have success against the Jets. Pats will win 27-10.

Wild Card Sunday

Before getting into Sunday's picks, here's my recap of Saturday's terrible day for me which both my picks lost. The Seahawks are living a charmed life right now, but let's be fair, Stanford would have beat the Saints defense yesterday. They were awful after taking the 10-0 lead. Drew Brees did all he could, but he couldn't play defense and they couldn't stop Seattle when they needed to. It was pretty much punctuated by Marshawn Lynch's epic run which is one of those runs you see on NFL Films when Jim Brown or Earl Campbell make one of their all-time runs. It was physical and overpowering and might be the best playoff run in history. As far as biggest upset, I'll hold off and still go with Jacksonville trotting into Denver and beating Elway and Co. 30-27 in the 1996 Playoffs, in terms of a non-Super Bowl upset (thus Jets, Pats and Giants don't count). We can get into writing off the Seahawks next week and the discussion on whether 7-9 teams should host playoff games can be tabled for the future, but for now, Seattle's on top of the world.

The Seahawks would need to share a spot with Rex Ryan, who finally gets his win over Peyton Manning and his Colts. Of course, he was given this win on a timeout call by Jim Caldwell that was Chris Webber-level bad. The Jets were going to take their chances on a 50 yard field goal. I don't have to remind Jets fans on how Herm Edwards did the exact same thing against the Steelers in the 2004 Playoffs and Doug Brien proceeded to miss the winning field goal. Caldwell gave the Jets a chance to reconsider and Mark Sanchez found Braylon Edwards at the 15, setting up a 32 yard winner for Nick Folk. Sanchez deserves credit for making that throw, because he was awful yesterday. He overthrew receiver after receiver and cost the Jets points at halftime with his interception. The Jets, smartly, ran much of the second half and dominated the line of scrimmage. As for the Colts, Peyton was able to move the ball but couldn't get into the end zone except the long TD to Pierre Garcon. The Jets defense deserves credit for daring Manning to run the ball and Manning obliged for the most part. Still, Manning in a tough game put the Colts in a position to win and maybe they do if the Colts can stop Cromartie's return or if Caldwell lets the Jets take the field goal from 50 yards.

Onto the picks with the first game in Kansas City with the Chiefs hosting the Ravens. I thought the Chiefs had a better than punchers chance to win and the Seahawks winning makes a Chiefs win more possible. The Ravens are capable of beating anyone in the AFC, might be the best team on paper in the AFC. The problem is the Ravens all year when playing a big game seem to come small in a close game.

Ravens will win if: They do exactly what they did to the Dolphins in this playoff game two years ago, and to a lesser extent last year to New England, which is control tempo on the road against an inferior team (I go lesser with the Pats because I didn't find them inferior). The Chiefs running game would have to be stopped and Matt Cassel needs to be blitzed. Flacco just needs to control the offense, not turn the ball over and not panic late.

Chiefs will win if: They can run with Jamaal Charles and the crowd can disrupt the Ravens. Cassel would need to be upright and make a couple of plays. The Chiefs defense would also need to control the line of scrimmage and not allow big days from Flacco or Ray Rice.

My pick: I picked the Chiefs to make the playoffs back in start of the year. I would love to pick them today and I probably would if the game started at 4:30. The Ravens tend to play great on the 1pm Wild Card game. Plus, the only time the Ravens lost in the Wild Card round, the memorable Anthony Wright was the starting QB. So the Ravens (-3.5) will win today 20-10.

Now to the main event of the weekend, the Packers and the Eagles. The Packers soared in the last two games, while the Eagles slumped. Both teams have great QB play, with Aaron Rodgers appearing conventional but can break a run when necessary and Michael Vick ready to run, but more willing to throw in the pocket than in the past. Both teams have great receivers, Eagles are more likely to go deep, Packers can do both intermediate and deep very well. The Packers defense is better (the best one left in the NFC), while the Eagles run the ball better. Something's gotta give.

Packers will win if: They can blitz Vick for the full game and make him uncomfortable. This is a huge game for Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and the Packers defense. They have to stop LeSean McCoy and not let Vick find DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin deep. Offensively, Rodgers needs to thrive against an average Eagles defense, but at the very least to avoid killer interceptions.

Eagles will win if: Vick can run wild and Jackson makes two or three big plays. Also, if Rodgers can turn the ball over (likely meaning a big day for Asante Samuel) and can't throw in the wind today, the Eagles should win. McCoy running for over 100 yards would help as well.

My pick: Forget about the collapse, the Giants showed everyone how to contain Michael Vick, with a strong pass rush and avoid leaving contain. The Bears, Cowboys and Vikings all did the same. The Packers have the athletes to do the same, forget the first matchup as the Packers didn't gameplan Vick. Rodgers will make enough plays and I find a lower scoring game than most people think. Packers win 27-20.

Wild Card Saturday

I didn't plan to make my picks post so late, but the Seton Hall game delayed it and the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords kept me from writing over the last hour. Before I start, allow me to offer condolences to those who were injured or killed and their families. I don't usually have politics on this blog, but in this instance, I will make an exception. Don't comment about it unless you're echoing my sentiment or it will be removed (of course, any comments about the games will be encouraged).

Anyway, let's move on to football where the first game today is the Saints and the Seahawks which the 7-9 team is hosting the game (this needs to change). The Saints were dealt a blow when both Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were lost for the playoffs, leaving both Julius Jones and Reggie Bush as their only source of running. Which puts more on the shoulders of Drew Brees and the passing game. Seattle has a puncher's chance with Matt Hasselbeck, but he's more of a sitting duck for Gregg Williams pressure defense. I would have had no confidence if Charlie Whitehurst was under center.

Saints win if: They show up. In reality, the Saints need to take the early lead and get the crowd out of it. Best way to do that is to exploit the pourous Seahawks secondary and if Julius Jones has revenge on his mind against the Seahawks, then let him run.

Seahawks win if: They take the early lead and let the 12th man disrupt the Saints offense. Force Drew Brees to throw interceptions (and he threw 22 INT's this year) and shutdown the depleted Saints running game. Also, mistake-free football by the Seahawks offense and a couple plays by Leon Washington on special teams which could lead to points.

My pick: I see more and more people are talking themselves into either taking the 10.5 or picking the Seahawks outright and I'm thinking, why fool around. If you take the Saints and they lose, then you're just wrong and if you're like me, you can live with it. If you take the Seahawks and they get destroyed, then you just wasted your time. I'd rather be wrong than foolish. And I spent way too much time explaining, so Saints win 34-10.


The nightcap pits an AFC Championship Game rematch between the Jets and the Colts. Spread is the Colts favored by 2.5 and this is a split on who thinks who's going to win. The Jets are better this year and the Colts are worse, especially with the injuries to Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. The key of course is that Peyton Manning isn't hurt and carried the Colts to this playoff game. The Jets for the most part slumped to the end and while I said the Jets are better, it's because they can score more than last year. Their defense isn't as good and still can't pass rush without a blitz. That is dangerous when playing Manning, who not only can figure blitzes out, he's done so to Rex Ryan-coached teams for many years.

Jets win if: Their ground and pound lasts longer than 3 plays a series. Mark Sanchez needs to be efficient and they can put some points up. Meanwhile, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie must handle Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne and the front seven have to get to Manning and force turnovers.

Colts win if: Peyton solves the Jets defense and puts up points. The Colts running game needs to be good enough for Manning's play action plays will work. Meanwhile, the Colts defense needs to make a couple stops. A bad Sanchez wouldn't hurt if you're Indianapolis.

My pick: I originally was thinking the Colts, but I've kind of waffled because I think more "experts" are taking the Jets. Also, the Jets built their team for this game, adding Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson for more offensive punch and Cromartie to strengthen the secondary. However, no Jim Leonhard hurts and I think Blair White and Jacob Tamme will make a play over the middle for Manning. I have the Colts winning 31-21.

Come back tomorrow for the Sunday playoff picks.

Revolving Recaps

Week 4 was a week which the underdogs reigned supreme, as nine of the fourteen dogs covered, with six of them winning outright. This seems like more of an indication that this season is one of those which the parity is prevalent, in the sense that separation between the best and the worst aren't that great. It will all make sense later this week when I write my first power poll, for now, here's the recaps of this week's games.


Let's start with the Jets, who had the easiest win of the week. LaDainian Tomlinson dominated today and Mark Sanchez continued his effective passing game. The Jets seem well oiled and only will get better with Santonio Holmes, Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace about to come back. As for the Bills, keep scouting Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker.

The game of the week was in Pittsburgh with another low-scoring battle between the Steelers and the Ravens. It was a must-win for the Ravens who couldn't afford to lose to Pittsburgh with Charlie Batch at QB. What impressed me about that game was how Joe Flacco was able to be somewhat effective, which is regular effective when playing the Steelers. Pittsburgh would have won had Jeff Reed hit a couple FG's, though, but that's another subtopic this year in the NFL, bad placekicking.

New Orleans continued it's Super Bowl hangover, struggling at home with the Panthers. The Saints left points early in the game by turning the ball over in Panthers territory twice. Also, the Saints couldn't score touchdowns and the mid-week acquisition of John Carney came up huge with a 3 for 3 day kicking FG's. Carolina was able to drive late, when the Saints defense turned up the pressure and Carolina couldn't even get a field goal try off. Panthers still have things to work on, but maybe they're no longer the worst in the league and Jimmy Clausen is gaining experience.

A funny game in Lambeau as the Packers had a barnburner with the always game Lions. Detroit really needs to learn how to win road games, but as Deion Sanders said on NFL Network last night, they aren't Homecoming anymore. Calvin Johnson makes his case for the best WR in football with his TD's, while Aaron Rodgers continued his impressive play. Once the Lions were stopped in the middle of the 4th quarter, the never saw the ball.

The game I figured was due to happen, the Bengals finally lost a game to a lesser team, which is bad enough, until you realize it's their archrival Browns. Yes, Terrell Owens had a big day, with 10 catches, 222 yards and a TD, but the offense still isn't that good and it's only a matter of time the mainstream media realizes that Carson Palmer isn't a good QB anymore. As for the Browns, all of a sudden, Peyton Hillis has become an effective running back. Still can't see this team play well enough to save Eric Mangini's job, and soon I want to see Colt McCoy play at QB.

The weirdest game happened in Tennessee as the Broncos rallied to win 26-20. Mostly nondescript game until the 4th when the Broncos got the ball at the Titans 1 after a pass interference call on a throw to Jabar Gaffney. After a penalty, Kyle Orton found Correll Buckhalter for the game-winning touchdown. On the kickoff, it was shades of the 1998 AFC Championship game for the Broncos as the kick was short and the Titans couldn't handle it. Denver took over, and iced it with a field goal. Still don't know what to make of either team.

This game was slightly weirder than Niners/Falcons, which played itself more like a Greek tragedy if you're a SF fan. They started so hot, getting a 14-0 lead, then let the Falcons slowly come back to make it 14-13 late in the 4th. That when Nate Clemens picked off Matt Ryan and ran it down the field, then loses focus on the run and gets stripped by Roddy White. Falcons proceed to march down the field and kick the winning field goal. Falcons survived their trap game and will move on, while the Niners continue to plummet and this might mean the end for Mike Singletary as head coach.

Instead of the Niners leading the NFC West, there's a three way tie at 2-2. The Cardinals lost another game on the road in blowout fashion 41-10 to the Chargers. Not much to say, the Chargers are playing well at home and the Cards are thinking about starting Max Hall next week. Meanwhile, the Rams had an easy win over the Seahawks at home and found themselves in a tie for first. I've been behind the Rams all year and I must say, they have the best chance to win the division. They have the best QB in rookie Sam Bradford, Steve Spagnuolo is as good a coach as that division has and Steven Jackson is skilled enough to make defenses key on the rush. The other thing to worry about is the Seahawks home field; they can win the division by going 8-0 at home alone.

Houston went into Oakland without Arian Foster for the first half. So they turned Derrick Ward into the version from the Giants early. It was close until Foster came in and ran a touchdown from 74 yards out. He scored another to make it 31-14, before holding on 31-24 over the Raiders. The Texans showed how good they are despite the loss of Andre Johnson, while the Raiders showed that...they're still the Raiders.

The play of the day happened in Jacksonville in a wildly competitive game between the Colts and Jaguars when Josh Scobee hit a 59 yard field goal to win it for the Jags. As usual when these two teams play, it was close, a back and forth contest which the guy with the ball last wins. Usually, that guy is Peyton Manning, but not yesterday. Now we have a Jags team, who I thought was among the five worst have the same record as Indianapolis.

The most hyped matchup Sunday was Donovan McNabb's return to Philly against Michael Vick's Eagles. Unfortunately for the Eagles, Vick got hit in the ribs and left the game and now won't play next week. That meant Kevin Kolb had to play again, and to be fair, he wasn't terrible and gets a chance to show how good he is with this week's game against the Niners. Meanwhile, McNabb and the Skins started fast, particularly with the running game, which the Eagles had trouble stopping all day. The second half was disjointed, but up 5 with 4 minutes left, McNabb ran for a first down, which didn't the Eagles much time for a comeback (though they came close). The Redskins win tied them with the Eagles for first with a very NFC West like 2-2.

Another team would join that tie as the Giants thoroughly dominated the Bears, even though the score was closer. Jay Cutler was battered by the Giants defense, sans Mathius Kiwanuka, to the tune of 9 sacks and left with a concussion at halftime. Once Todd Collins came in, the offense gave up and once the Giants drove down the field for a touchdown, the game was over. Still, the Giants have to clear up some areas, but the defense is getting better. As for the Bears, they now go from 3-0 and feeling good, to now at the crossroads this year with Cutler's injury. Of course, the Bears were lucky to be 3-0 anyway.

Just now, the Pats showed us Pats football. Trailing 7-6 at halftime, New England took advantage of every single Miami mistake en route to a 41-14 win. The offense did enough as Tom Brady channelled his 01-04 days while the much maligned defense took care of business in the second half. Player of the game goes to Patrick Chung who blocked a punt and a field goal, while running an interception back for a touchdown. Very impressive. While the Patriots righted their ship, the Dolphins now have lost to their two rivals at home in back-to-back weeks and if they are to win the division, they almost certainly have to win in New York and Foxboro. Troubling for the Fish, indeed.

Same Old Jets

Tonight was supposed to be the start of the new era of Jets football, where the phrase "Play Like A Jet" is no longer a punchline. Rex Ryan with his swagger and breath of fresh air to change the Jets from losers into winners. New stadium that Jets fans can call their own (even though they still share with the Giants). However, after tonight, it's clear that the Jets are still a ways to go to becoming an elite team in this league. Basically, the Ravens are a glimpse at what the Jets want to be and how far they are to get there.

Let's begin with the offense, who everyone will write about in any story about this game. They were horrid and putrid. It's clear that there is a fear of throwing the ball down the field by Brian Schottenheimer, which unfortunately is the way you can beat the Ravens without Ed Reed. Watch that last drive again, not once did Mark Sanchez have a throw go beyond 10 yards. The thing to remember is that maybe this offense will be better once Santonio Holmes is back on the field. That won't help them next week against the Patriots, a team who's offense is miles ahead of the Ravens.

The Jets defense had their moments, but almost every time a stop was needed, the Jets let the Ravens get a 1st down, either through a bad play or a penalty. Partcularly Antonio Cromartie, who has some many penalties, people wonder if he makes babies the same way. The Ravens for the most part avoided where Darrelle Revis was covering and stuck with burning Cromartie and Kyle Wilson when they could.

The outlook for Baltimore is good, their front seven can makeup for deficiencies in the secondary until Reed returns and they will play better offense when they play easier defenses. Ray Rice, who was quiet tonight, will play better as the season continues. The question for them is can Flacco play well throughout. He got more comfortable as the game went on and had the confidence in his coaching staff to throw deep to Todd Heap on 1st down late in the game. They are rightly among those who are being picked for the Super Bowl.

The Jets, on the other hand, seem much further away from the Super Bowl than Rex Ryan thinks. The defense is good, but it's not unstoppable and it can't play dumb like it did tonight. They also need their offense to look like an offense and not have guys run out of bounds short on 4th downs.

As for the nightcap, the Chiefs played a spirited game with the Chargers at a newly renovated Arrowhead. Kansas City looks very improved (as much as one game can show) with playmakers all over the field now. Dexter McCluster scored on a 94 yard punt return, Jamaal Charles scored from 56 yards. Yes, Matt Cassel didn't play that well, but he didn't play poor despite 10/22 for 68 yards. The key is the special teams with McCluster and Javier Arenas running kicks and the defense made plays when they needed to make them, particularly those last two Chargers drives.

San Diego showed they were missing Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill and will need to get those guys signed before the season falls apart. Phil Rivers is always game, but once the Chiefs took away Antonio Gates, the offense struggled. The defense played well, but in the end, a loss is a loss. To be fair, the Chargers always do this, a slow start, then charge (no pun intended) to a playoff berth. Can it happen again? Not without McNeill and Jackson.

NFL 2010 Preview: AFC

That's right, it's time for the NFL season to begin. The offseason was dominated by the Jets, who have claimed the throne from the Redskins as offseason champs (even though the Redskins gave their case as usual). They have told us all summer that they're the team to beat and now they must show us, as well as the rest of the league. So let's begin with the season preview, starting with a look at the AFC.

(*-denotes wild card)

AFC East: 1. Patriots 2. Dolphins 3. Jets 4. Bills

The Pats offense is the reason they'll win this division. Brady has too many weapons at his disposal and even with a mediocre defense, they should win 11 games. The Jets and Dolphins are very close and probably will finished tied. I just think that Chad Henne is a more dependable QB than Mark Sanchez, has the better WR in Brandon Marshall, get Ronnie Brown back for the Wildcat and won't have every team on the schedule gunning for them, like the Jets will. Ray Lewis' comments about the Jets today show what other teams will think throughout the year. The Bills will be the worst team in football, hopefully C.J. Spiller looks good and then they draft Jake Locker next season.

AFC North: 1. Steelers 2. Ravens* 3. Bengals 4. Browns

Dixon might be the key to this pick, but as long as Troy Polamalu can have a healthy season, the Steelers will be back in the playoffs. I also think Ben Roethlisberger will have a better year once he returns to football that most think. The Ravens should finish second as I think Joe Flacco will handle having a good offense positively. Baltimore's biggest issue is a defense without Ed Reed for the beginning of the year. Cincinnati gets buzz with Terrell Owens joining them, but ultimately, it's Carson Palmer that will keep them from winning. He hasn't been a top-QB since Kimo von Oelhoffen rolled over his leg in the 2005 playoffs. The Browns should be better than last year, but this division is too tough for them to be a legitimate sleeper.

AFC South: 1. Colts 2. Texans* 3. Titans 4. Jaguars

We all know the Colts will go as Peyton Manning goes. So mark them down for 13 wins and a bye. The Texans finally make the playoffs this year and finally give the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson combo more pub. The key; Neil Rackers playing good at kicker and I'm not kidding (Kris Brown's been worse than awful). The Titans play tough and have Chris Johnson, but that defense is in a little retooling mode and probably finish 8-8 again. This is the year the Jags get rid of Jack Del Rio and David Garrard. Another mediocre season and non-sellouts mean regime change will occur in Jacksonville.

AFC West: 1. Chiefs 2. Chargers 3. Raiders 4. Broncos

No, this isn't a typo, I have the Chiefs winning the weak AFC West. This is mainly an anti-San Diego pick as the losses from last year and the Vincent Jackson issue will hurt the team, plus too many years with Norv Turner has to lead to a missed playoff season. As for the Chiefs, having Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis in their natural environments as coordinators will help. Offensely, the Chiefs have talent in Jaamal Charles, Dexter McCluster and Dwayne Bowe around Matt Cassel and Eric Berry improves KC's defense on day one. I'd pick the Raiders except they're the Raiders and you can't trust them. Though, six or seven wins isn't out of the question. The Broncos will struggle early and Tim Tebow will get his chance to play.

1st Round: Ravens over Chiefs, Pats over Texans

Divisional Round: Ravens over Colts, Steelers over Pats

AFC Championship Game: Steelers over Ravens

First Day Recap and Second Day Preview

The NFL Draft completed it's first round last night in record time, allowing me to watch the end of Pens/Sens without distraction. While I don't like the NFL competing head-to-head against the NHL/NBA, they were competing anyway in the past. I love how this is spread out, allows for speculation and trades overnight. It's like the NHL Draft, without having all six other rounds going today and splitting the 2nd and 3rd from the rest. Here's some thoughts:

-I think we all knew the Rams would draft Sam Bradford because they felt like they couldn't pass on QB again. While Bradford could be a good player, if he doesn't work out, the Rams will continue to flounder. Ndamukong Suh was the best player in this draft and the Rams would have been better served to take him and then they would have their choice of Jimmy Clausen or Colt McCoy to open the second round tonight.

-The Lions in my eyes were the big winner by grabbing Suh and trading back in to take Jahvid Best at RB. Best adds to a team that is getting better in skill positions. The Lions have to now focus their future picks on adding to the offensive line so the skill players can be effective. Kind of like the Niners, who spend the first round drafting Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati, who join Joe Staley to put some youth and talent to a San Francisco line that was poor a year ago. Very good for a team that's the NFC West favorite, at least in my eyes.

-My other favorite picks of the night; Dallas trading up to grab Dez Bryant, though it duels as my least favorite pick since I didn't want the Cowboys to take him. Jermaine Greisham going to the Bengals who needed a TE in the worst way was good, and to be fair, picks 2-6 are all obvious and smart, particularly the Chiefs not overthinking and taking Eric Berry, who will dominate at safety for the next decade, in a league which a dominant safety has become key. Finally, the Steelers drafting Maurkice Pouncey at center will be the next coming of Dermontti Dawson for that franchise.

-My least favorite moves: Why did the Chargers jump to 12 to grab Ryan Mathews and the Eagles jump to 13 to take Brandon Graham. Both players could have been available further down in the first round. Also, the Jaguars could have traded down to take Tyson Alualu and should have. The fact that Tim Tebow was taken in the first round also is a move I don't like, plus the Broncos keep compiling these QB's.

As for tonight, the key will be who wants Colt McCoy and/or Jimmy Clausen and who will give up anything to get them. Personally, I like Clausen and the fact he was dropped to the second round will rid him of some cockiness that is perceived. I also like he played in an NFL-style offense under Charlie Weis, and before you bring up Brady Quinn, let's be fair, he had no chance to succeed in Cleveland, especially after they were dumb enough to resign Derek Anderson to that contract after his successful '07 season. Not to harp on Notre Dame guys, but I'm keen to watch were Golden Tate will go. He was better than you think and with Weis in Kansas City, perhaps there's a fit. You know the Chiefs need more skill players. Sergio Kindle is the other guy I'm looking at since he's a first round talent and whomever grabs him will be pleased, unless his injury issues are much more serious.

Before I finish, I must talk about the Giants draft pick Jason Pierre-Paul and the Jets grabbing Kyle Wilson. Both teams picked in places of strength and both were the right move. Rex Ryan loves his corners and Wilson will provide some insurance for Antonio Cromartie, in case he doesn't work out. Expect them to look for another pass rusher and offensive line help today. As for the Giants, Pierre-Paul looks like the best athlete in the draft. Everything I hear is that he has a great motor and all he needs is to learn technique and he'll be scary good. I'm pleased. Now the Giants need to look at the linebacker hole and Kindle and Sean Lee are who I'd want the Giants to get in the second round. They also should be looking at a DT and OL if both are off the board and in the third round.

Quick Sunday Picks

I feel like I took part in Down Goes Brown's drinking game last night, thus all my plans to have a real post isn't going to happen. Here's my picks for today. I think Dallas beats the Vikings, 24-13 and the Chargers beat the Jets, 20-6.

Quick Wild Card Picks

No Babe again, but I'll give one tomorrow with Sunday's picks, and a little review of tonight's games and other NFL-related stories. As for today's games, here are my picks. I think too many people have jumped on the Jets bandwagon and even though the Bengals aren't that good, they force Sanchez to throw and the Jets will lose in that scenario by default. Bengals win 24-10. As for the nightcap, this is a tough one because Andy Reid is a good first-round coach and Wade Phillips is still looking for his first one. But, I'm more impressed with the Cowboys defense than the Eagles and no one can convince me of that otherwise. As long as Dallas controls the clock, they win. I go with the Cowboys in the close variety, winning 31-28. As for the bettors, this obviously tells you to take the Bengals and the Eagles. Enjoy the football.

Thursday Night Pick

Sorry about the lack of story or picture today, but I'm on lunch at work and barely have the time to make a pick for tonight's Jets-Bills game in Toronto. Let's break it down: The Jets won because Jake Delhomme was the opposition who can make even Kerry Rhodes look good. Meanwhile, the Bills have started to get the ball to Terrell Owens, making him look somewhat valuable. Even though Darrelle Revis will shut TO down, the Bills go to Lee Evans and win tonight.

Buffalo (+3) over Jets

NFL Record: 91-83-1

Randomness While Channeling My Inner Barry Switzer

And apparently, this guy above also did the same thing. Bill Belichick did everything to lose that game Sunday night in that final Patriots drive. New England enters this drive with two timeouts and blows one before the first play for no reason. After setting up 3rd and 2, Belichick calls a pass play, instead of a run to set up the two minute warning, and that pass is nearly run back for a pick six. As the Pats offense leaves the field, Belichick arrogance comes into play and calls for another pass play on 4th and 2 at their OWN 28. The confusion of that play made the Pats burn their last timeout. That timeout was important as the Pats missed converting on the 4th down play on a close play that either you could use the timeout to challenge or save for the Colts possession and give Tom Brady more than 10 seconds to drive down the field.


Monday, I heard half the sports world rightly kill Belichick for his handling of the 4th down play and the other half defend him because "he's unconventional" and obviously anything he does is always the right call. The fact is, Belichick should have punted, and everyone expected it, which is why the Pats threw on third down (which you can't do) and threw basically the same route on fourth down. You can't take a chance that Peyton Manning gets 30 yards to win a game, but make him go 60-70 yards against you're defense that has made him uncomfortable all night, including a couple of interceptions (one in the fourth quarter).


Random note: I know about the video of Belichick's bodyguard knocking over a cameraman as they left the field. The thing that cracks me up is after Belichick shakes Jim Caldwell's hand, Jim Sorgi randomly approaches Bill just as the cameraman was taken down. Random note two: Since I didn't post this after this article, I must give Ed Werder credit for the "channel his inner Switzer" line. We both thought it, he put it on record first, plus he actually spoke with Barry Switzer about it, so he deservedly gets credit.


Good luck for the NY Jets, who have to face the Patriots who after their last loss beat the Titans 59-0. Add that the Pats lost the way they did, that the Jets beat them in September and how Belichick just plain hate the team, I wouldn't be surprised if 59-0 is the halftime score.


Jets have their own problems after another tough loss to the Jaguars Sunday. The key play was Maurice Jones-Drew stopping at the one yard line, a la Brian Westbrook, in order to run the clock down for a winning field goal. Gregg Easterbrook in his comprehensive TMQ column made an interesting point on the play, not by calling MJD dumb for trying to run the clock, but stating that Jack Del Rio would be to blame if the Jags somehow missed the FG because all they did was take knees to set the kick up (also you see him defend Belichick's fourth down decision, which I'm sure he was fight 100 bolts of lightning in doing so).


This is about the Jets, who have self-destructed before our very eyes, at least to those who live in New York. They lost Kris Jenkins and Leon Washington, Kerry Rhodes is the anti-Ed Reed, Mark Sanchez is playing like a rookie and Rex Ryan is coaching without a clue. This is a team that has talked like they won the last ten Super Bowls, where the coach has no clue about clock management and how to use his timeouts, where a rookie QB reads a prepared statement and thinks he can get away with pissing off the New York media. Now they're 4-5, certain to be 4-6 and headed to a 6-10, 7-9 season. The Rex Ryan Era Everybody!!!


Where last Sunday was an awful day for the Jets, it was golden for the Giants. Why? They didn't play. Also, the Cowboys, Eagles and Falcons lost, with all three and the Broncos each losing key players to injury. In a related story, the Giants play all three teams in the next four weeks. If Chris Simms is the starter on Thanksgiving, no chance do the Giants lose, hell the Lions or the Rams have as good a chance of winning. Thus, the Giants could avoid Brian Westbrook (concussion), Kyle Orton (ankle) and Michael Turner (ankle), plus the Cowboys had multiple injuries.


The Bengals are for real and no one can ignore them anymore. They swept both AFC Championship teams from a year ago, plus they have Oakland, Kansas City, Cleveland and Detroit which will get them into the playoffs. The defense is very good who have absorbed the loss of Antwan Odom without losing the ferocity of their pass rush and they have the best pair of corners for any team (with Green Bay the one possible exception) in Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall.


I remember back in the mid-90s that Bud Adams was one of the worst owners in sports with how he handled coaches and obviously how the Oilers left Houston for Tennessee. Then, he has seemed like a good guy during the Jeff Fisher era, but giving him the Cowher treatment and not firing him. After last Sunday, I'm glad that Adams can be hated once again after his two bird salute to a Bills section, not to mention Commissioner Roger Goodell.


I think everyone's aware that the Yankees have won more games that the Nets, Knicks, Giants AND Jets combined in November. But does anyone know that the Seton Hall Pirates hold that same claim and they started playing games last Friday. Just sayin'. (This is no longer true because the Knicks remarkably won in Indiana, holding Danny Granger to three second half points. So now it's a tie.)


As for the Pirates, I believe they will make the tournament, despite Keon Lawrence getting suspended for DUI. Herb Pope will make the difference and finally give the team the size they've been lacking. I rarely pick college in November because a) too many new players so I have no clue how they mesh and b) I know teams that are thought of as good fall on their faces way too often.


After blowing the draft pick this year and selecting Jordan Hill over Brandon Jennings and a still questionable Danilo Gallinari pick last year, should Knicks fans be concerned that Donnie Walsh is the GM? Also, does this make it a good thing the Knicks don't have a draft pick in 2010, thus Walsh can't screw up another one?

Huge weekend boxing where Manny Pacquiao puts himself in the elite class of fighters after his dominant win over Miguel Cotto. There were some shades of the Ali "Rope-A-Dope" in the early rounds which Cotto was forcing the action, before one switch at the ropes and Pac Man was brutal the rest of the fight, forcing Cotto's wife and son fleeing the arena (just like Mick Foley's wife and kids). Now, the entire world is salivating over a fight between Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, hopefully to be seen on the unofficial fight weekend of the year, Kentucky Derby day (doubling as the weekend of my 24th birthday).


Pacquiao supporters can claim that he dominated Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton better than Floyd and that Miguel Cotto was the best fighter either guy faced. While Mayweather supporters can claim the win of Juan Manuel Marquez is better than Pacquiao's struggles with the guy, the fact is, Marquez was a better fighter at a lower weight. One thing that's true about Pacquiao, he hasn't lost his speed as he moves up weight class and winning titles in seven divisions is as good a feat as ever done in boxing, while Mayweather must continue to stay unbeaten because that's his claim to fame, aside from a lot of bravado and boring defensive fights (he's clearly the San Antonio Spurs of boxing for the simple fact that I think he can throw when he wants to which he did against Hatton, just as the Spurs could score with the Suns when necessary). Pacquiao's place in boxing history will be looked on kind regardless of a win/loss against Floyd, but Mayweather can establish himself in a greater light. That's why Floyd needs this fight, though not more than the sport of boxing itself.


Finally, the World Cup qualifying ended Wednesday as the last six teams made the 32-team field which will be played in South Africa next year. Kudos must go to our upset winners in Greece (who I always root for, except against the U.S., in deference to some of my cousins) and Slovenia, who knocked off Ukraine (leading to this scene being rehashed) and Russia respectively (think of Russia's luck, they probably were among the top 5 teams in qualifying, but they had to be grouped with Germany and couldn't beat them. They win if grouped with France or Italy). Algeria won a special playoff over Egypt, Uruguay won their playoff with Costa Rica while Christiano Ronaldo can breathe easy because his Portugal squad made the field without him.


The final one was between Ireland and France. The French won the first leg 1-0 in Ireland and the Irish scored first in the second game leading to extra time. For anyone who doesn't know, because both teams scored one goal and on the road, they needed the extra time; if France would score, it would force Ireland to score or the French move on. In the 103rd minute, the play that happened will instantly be compared to Diego Maradona, the Montreal Screwjob, the Bennett Salvatore Game, Jeffery Maier, and No Goal among the list of worst officiating moments in sports history. Thierry Henry clearly touches the ball with a handball, which gets uncalled and the France win on the ensuing goal. Personally, I'm done talking about it, the Irish were robbed and France will undeservedly go to South Africa, it's that simple.


Here's my pick for tonight's NFL Network game. Home team in CAPS
CAROLINA (-3) over Miami- Without Ronnie Brown, the Wildcat isn't as effective and the Dolphins will lose tonight. Please don't make me curse picking you Jake Delhomme.

Football Friday and Angel Stadium Review

Before my review of Week 2 and Week 3 picks, here's Angel Stadium in a nutshell. When someone says the design of the stadium is similar to Yankee Stadium, their right, though also is a little Dodger Stadium-like in design. I'm glad the crowd wasn't into doing the wave, and only had bouncing beach balls as the distraction. I couldn't stand that Rally Monkey, just annoyed me how they constantly showed it batter after batter. Yankee fans I would say was 25-35% of the crowd Wednesday afternoon; for some reason, I believe if this was the Red Sox, it would be 35-45%. Other than that, it's not really a memorable stadium, in neither good nor bad way. Now let's look back at Week 2:

- I think we are looking at last year's Ravens with this year's Jets. Rex Ryan has them playing defense just like he had Baltimore a year ago, while Mark Sanchez is just playing smart, safe football at QB. Huge win against the Patriots, who for once seem vulnerable (where have we heard that before). Darrelle Revis is proving to be maybe the best CB in football after shuting down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss in back-to-back weeks. All these tools have Mark Sanchez smiling like he's still dating LA girls at USC (though there's very little dropoff in NY, ask Joe Namath). On the other hand, Matt Stafford shouldn't be confused with Matty Ice; the Lions are still bad and it's nice to see a QB struggle in his rookie year again.

- The brothers Manning continue to show their greatness last weekend with dueling game-winning drives to steal games their teams should have lost. Peyton didn't even have the ball for more than 15 minutes, a point hammered home by ESPN afterwards. As for Eli, he bailed out the Giants who couldn't run the football or stop it on the ground. I loved hearing all the praise Eli received last week, the way Eli handles himself in a two-minute drill is just perfect. I knew when there was 3:40 left to go that it was too much time for him and he proved it. Which is more than I can say for his opponent.

- All of a sudden Jake Delhomme has company in the maligned QB group now that Cowboys fans and alumni at leaping off the Tony Romo bandwagon. Romo was absolutely awful against the Giants and was the reason the Cowboys lost in the opener in the House that Jerry built. Apparently, Jerry Jones had a lot to do with Cowboys Stadium since NBC saw it fit to show him every two minutes (as if the network name is Jones Broadcasting Company). JBC cameras even found Jerry with a no-so great moment for him, but maybe the greatest moment for all Cowboy-haters when he went digging for oil after Bruce Johnson's pick six.

- The Dolphins were also on the wrong side of the a game they should of won, but this because of some awful coaching by Tony Sparano. He went for an inside draw on 3rd and 6 with the game tied and Miami in field goal range, taking the three points, even though Peyton Manning is the other QB. Then, they run as poor a two minute drill as Eli runs one good, burning a timeout when they waste the full play clock. The other two bad coaching performances of last week include Norv Turner and Todd Haley. Haley was killed by Jason Whitlock, Mike Lombardi and briefly by Bill Simmons for his overreacting on the sidelines and his bad playcalling. As for Norv, I watch the end of the Ravens-Chargers game and I was appalled by the play selection on 4th and 2 against a team like the Ravens. I don't bail on my picks too early, but if I did, I would immediately switch the Chargers with the Ravens. Baltimore is the best team in football now that Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense is able to put up points and the defense is still there.

- I continue to be impressed by Drew Brees on a week-by-week basis as the Saints are primed to challenge the Pats scoring record and Brady's touchdown record. Their competition in the Falcons has done well to win their first two and Tony Gonzalez seems to have completed that offense, which has seen no sophomore slump by Matt Ryan.

- The rest of the unbeatens in the league include the Vikings, Niners and Broncos. For Minnesota and San Francisco, it's because of Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, respectively. For Denver, it's because of Brandon Stokely and the Cleveland Browns, respectively. The Browns are awful and I will continue to drive home the point that Eric Mangini is this decade's Rich Kotite; I still can't believe the Browns hired him.

- Kudos to the Texans, Bengals, Cardinals, Bills and Raiders for winning bounce back games after varying degrees of tough Week 1 losses. Houston puts their bandwagon on track, Arizona looked like last year; Cincy allowed Chad Ochocinco do his Lambeau Leap, TO finally did something productive and the Raiders won in spite of JaMarcus Russell's putrid passing because Todd Haley is proving to be a bad coach and the new frontrunner of the first year coach that's fired (for the record, no Raider coach is ever on the board, you can predict crazy/senile)

- The opposite of kudos goes to the Titans, Packers and most especially the Redskins. Anytime your fanbase is angry after a win, you get a negative kudo from me.


Now let's make Week 3 picks, as well as college. I apologize for finishing this late and I'm only going to show my picks for the 3:30 and later games today (Home team in CAPS):

Tennessee (+2.5) over JETS- Let down week for the Jets (Titans); Titans (Oilers) need this one.
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville- Jaguars are awful, Texans probably are good.
Kansas City (+7.5) over PHILLY - Can't trust Kevin Kolb yet, reverses if McNabb somehow plays.
BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Cleveland- Ravens haven't had a blowout win yet, it's this week.
Giants (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY- Even hurt, the Giants should easily beat the Bucs.
DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington- Never again give a touchdown with this Redskins team.
Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS- The Packers are better than last week; the Rams aren't.
San Fran (+7) over MINNESOTA- Let's just say I think the real Brett Favre will show up.
Atlanta (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND- The wrong week for the Pats to play the Falcons.
Chicago (-2,5) over SEATTLE- Last week could start good things for the Bears, Seahawks will struggle with Wallace at QB.
New Orleans (-6) over BUFFALO- Don't overreact to the Bills win over Tampa, do with Brees.
SAN DIEGO (-5.5) over Miami- Battle of bad coaches, Norv's team is better than Tony's.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCINNATI- I just can't pick against Big Ben, not against an inferior team.
Denver (-1.5) over OAKLAND- The fact the Raiders were favored to start this week was laughable.
Indy (+2.5) over ARIZONA- Cards looked too good against a bad team, tougher against Peyton.
DALLAS (-8.5) over Carolina- Romo shouldn't disappoint two weeks in a row, easily should win.

NFL Record: 18-14 (Bears were underdogs last week, not favorites)

California (-5.5) over OREGON
VA TECH (+3.5) over Miami
TCU (+2.5) over CLEMSON
Pittsburgh (Pick'em) over NC STATE
Notre Dame (-6.5) over PURDUE
PENN STATE (-9) over Iowa
HOUSTON (+1.5) over Texas Tech
Washington (+9) over STANFORD

College Record: 13-20-1

NFL Preview Part I

Tis the season to be jolly, now the NFL is officially back. And with that, it's time for all of us in the mainstream media and blogosphere to write our predictions. Here at The Cycle, this will be the start of a three-part preview over the next 3 days, starting with an AFC overview, followed by the NFC and finally, I will make 10 fearless predictions and have my weekly picks that will be a staple every week. Will these predictions be right? Probably not, according to Down Goes Brown. Will I end up getting mocked when the season's over like these guys? Almost a certain. So why bother? Because that's the price of fame, putting yourself out there, like A-Rod. And yes, I know I'm the exact opposite of fame. Anyway, let's begin:


AFC East- This was arguably the toughest division last year for two reasons; the AFC West and the NFC West. Miami, New England, the Jets and Buffalo got to fatten up on both divisions. I'm sure you're curious why the Jets are crossed out; ask Denver, Oakland, San Francisco and Seattle why. Let's not fool ourselves here, the Pats have Tom Brady again and will win this division, so I won't make you wait two days on the easiest slam dunk since Lew Alcindor had them outlawed in the 60s. This offense still is very strong and Brady-to-Moss will torch D's again, followed by the sneaky Brady-to-Welker passes. The defense for the Pats isn't too bad with Derrick Burgess coming on board, though, the Seymour trade will lead to some struggles. However, any struggles on defense will be masked by the offense.


Miami is one of the top candidates of the year-after hangover (plenty more to follow) as the schedule gets harder and the wildcat won't fool anyone this year. Actually, this should be thought of as a transition year as Chad Pennington never fares well in an odd year, giving Chad Henne or Pat White the opportunity to lead the team in 2010. Remember, the schedule was very easy a year ago, including a game in Toronto. Now, they have the Bills in Buffalo and the AFC and NFC South teams to play, much harder.


Buffalo and the Jets should struggle this year as facing the likes of New Orleans and Indy won't help these teams at all. The Bills have no offensive line, especially with the loss of Jason Peters to Philly. They made the splashy move get Terrell Owens, mainly because the Bills have not mattered since the Music City Miracle murdered the franchise Francisco Cabrera-style. In five weeks, the splash will be gone once the Bills realize that Owens isn't a game-changing receiver anymore and that Trent Edwards won't have a chance to get Owens the ball. Even his fireworks will only be like lighting a cigarette instead of blowing up a building as past ones have been. Also hurting the Bills, a down year I believe in store for Marshawn Lynch and a young defense that needs to grow. It also doesn't help that the Bills were one of the teams to fire their offensive coordinator last week.


Defense is what is going to be good for the Jets as Rex Ryan takes his Baltimore mentality, along with Bart Scott and Jim Leonhart, and will impose that and his larger-than-life personality in New York. Their problem is that the offense will struggle due to Mark Sanchez's growing pains. It doesn't help that there's no big-play receiver for him to hookup with and an aging runner in Thomas Jones. I do believe the Jets will end up being a much better second half team once Sanchez gains experience.


AFC North- Of all the divisions, it seems like all of the teams involved should be where they were last year; Steelers in first, followed by the Ravens, Bengals and Browns. For a moment during the preseason, Pittsburgh looked to be in trouble when Ben Roethlisberger hurt his Achilles, but it seems like he won't miss anytime. The Steelers also return almost everyone from the Super Bowl team last year, meaning teams will again fear playing against the likes of Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.


Baltimore's defense, despite all sorts of losses from coordinators to linebackers, will still be among the elite, mainly because Ed Reed still plays football. The biggest question is Joe Flacco and if he will have a sophomore slump and needs Derrick Mason to play as well as he did last year, despite his brief retirement. I do, however, see a big year out of Ray Rice who will end up heading the three-headed monster backfield with Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain. And even with an aging Ray Lewis, him staying in Baltimore is like having a coach on the field.


Rice's teammate from Rutgers Brian Leonard has found a home in Cincinnati as we will see tomorrow on the last episode of Hard Knocks. This year's season will be remembered for the drive-by, assassin style roster cuttings by the Bengals, Andre Smith training shirtless and letting his man boobs out for America to cringe while watching and Tank Johnson doing household chores and the comedy that is caused by this. Actually, I don't think this team is going to be too bad; they have a good defense which is better with Rey Maualuga at linebacker and even Roy Williams at safety doesn't hurt them. This season comes down to Carson Palmer's health; if he plays, the Bengals could surprise, if not, they will be just as bad as a year ago, with another year Chad Ochocinco is older, another year crazier.


While Cincy tries to win with longtime coach Marvin Lewis, the Browns have hitched their star back to the Belichick tree. I don't get why the Browns keep picking up Belichick rejects; Bill did an awful job before the old Browns moved to Baltimore and Romeo Crennel ended his run as coach nicknamed Cromeo, looking just like Art Shell when he returned to the Raiders. Now, they try to win with Eric Mangini, who left after the debacle with the Jets. Doesn't a move like this remind anyone of Rich Kotite, who coached the Eagles in 1994, choked their season, then went to the Jets. You know what each of those teams have in common, snakebite history. This is further compounded by that Cleveland has no starting quarterback, where even Belichick thinks Mangini is going too far. The defense is still bad, no running game and a number one receiver who drops more than TO in Braylon Edwards (and yes Braylon, I haven't forgiven you for murdering my fantasy season last year, you better suck again).


AFC South- This division is expected to be the best in the AFC as it has been for the past four years. You can make a case for each team in the division making the playoffs (yes, even Jacksonville, which should thrill all 100 of their fans). The favorite as usual is the Colts and Peyton Manning, despite losing Tony Dungy to retirement. This Indy defense has the chance to be the best in the Manning Era (except for the four, and only four games they played D in the run to Super Bowl XLI), with a strong pass rush and a good secondary, as long as Bob Sanders is in the lineup. The real questions happen to be on offense, can Anthony Gonzalez finally become the number two behind Reggie Wayne and can Joe Addai and Donald Brown give the Colts a solid running game.


Last year's champs, the Titans, probably won't be as good as a year ago, but 13-3 would be worse for them, so the playoffs are certainly are very possible. How they recover from losing defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and DT Albert Haynesworth is their biggest question. This defense is still good, but if they don't play as well as last year, they could miss the playoffs. Also, does Kerry Collins play as well as he did last year? If the Titans win, it will be because of Chris Johnson's development, LenDale "No Patron" White with an epic contract year and great coaching from Jeff Fisher, the NFL's Jerry Sloan.


If there's a team that most of the so-called experts (you can't be experts if you pick 9 or 10 teams to return to the playoffs, I'm looking at you ESPN) are picking to be in the playoffs other than New England, it's the Texans. After last year's second half run, Houston is primed to make the playoffs for the first time ever. It all rests on the health of Matt Schaub, because if he's injured, they stay go nowhere. No way do I believe Sexy Rexy or Dan "I Run Into My Endzone" Orlovsky can get the job done, not with the Colts and Titans to deal with. However, if Andre Johnson can prove to play healthy for a full season, so could Schaub. He's lucky that Steve Slaton is a beast and Andre Johnson is a top-3 receiver in this league. As for defense, Mario Williams will end the year with 15+ sacks and make an average defense look good.


Jacksonville's projections run the spectrum of very bad and playoff sleeper. One thing we can agree on, Maurice Jones-Drew is good. They need a big year from MJD if they have any chance to win, though a big year from him might not help at all. David Garrard, if anything, is efficient at QB and though Torry Holt is old, he's still reliable to have at WR on a team devoid of great receivers. The defense is the great unknown as they will make or break this team. They play each their division foes in three of the first four games; how they fare will make or break their season. Of course, no one in the Jacksonville area will know football is being played until Florida-Georgia since each game will be blacked out, since the Jaguars can get people to buy tickets.


AFC West- This division seems like it's the Chargers to lose. Well, it is; there is absolutely no reason for San Diego to lose this division, short of a swine flu outbreak. The offense will be better than last year because I believe LaDainian Tomlinson will have a comeback year, making this offense lethal. Add in Phil Rivers passing, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson catching and Darren Sproles playing the role of Leon Washington, only better, they could score around 500 points this year. Now I was prepared to say the Chargers defense would be very good this year; now with the Merriman-Tequila incident combine the worlds of sports, reality and Twitter. As long as Shawne isn't suspended during the season, it won't hurt the defense and 11-5 or better is almost certain.


So now, who will finish second? Denver and Kansas City seem like the logical candidates, since you can't use logic and the Oakland Raiders in the same sentence, except when you say you can't and only then. The Broncos have had quite the Raider-like offseason as they fired Mike Shanahan, hired Josh McDaniels, failed to get Matt Cassel, annoyed Jay Cutler and had to trade him 50 cents on the dollar. Now they have a huge issue with Brandon Marshall, he's a jerk. It's one thing to want a new contract, but to act like a petulant little kid in practice means you should be blackballed in this league. All Denver needs is to trade him, then use his enormous talent and dominate, not even Vince Carter mailed his way out of Toronto as bad as that. Otherwise, I would actually pick the Broncos as a sleeper, because for all of what Josh McDaniels did to cause this, even Cutler said he was a good coach, plus a little defense would make the Broncos a .500 team.


The Chiefs are on that short list of teams who if they win, it's out of nowhere. This year, that group include: KC, Oakland, St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincy, San Fran and Buffalo. Every year one of those teams no one likes will win; last year Atlanta and Miami, in '07, Tampa Bay, in '06, New Orleans (hence no NFC South team is on this list). I would of picked Kansas City, since they have Matt Cassel at QB, Todd Haley is a major upgrade over Herm Edwards, and Scott Pioli is the GM. However, they traded away Tony Gonzalez and that's a red flag. They also fired Chan Gailey before the season, major red flag (see Bills, Buffalo). They will win at least four more games than a year ago, but that's still a 6-10 team in this league.


Last but not least, the Raiders. Here's the Raiders offseason, drafted an overrated Darius Heywood-Bey over the better receiver in Michael Crabtree (I have more for him in the next post), sign Jeff Garcia, then cut him fearing he could ruin JaMarcus Russell, have their coach accused of punching an assistant and basically traded Derrick Burgess and a 1st round pick to the Pats for a 3rd and a 5th rounder and an aging Richard Seymour, who still hasn't reported to the team as of Wednesday. Everyone has chimed in this last trade, from comparing him to the 10th man in a fantasy league who knows nothing about football (Oakland is the only team to draft kicker and punter in the 1st round of a draft unless they did more than kick) to saying that the NFL should take away Al Davis' right to trade. Need I say more.


Part II should be out with NFC overview tomorrow afternoon, with my Thursday game pick, Friday most likely will be when my final predictions are posted and I promise the Thursday game won't influence it.

The Great Giants and Jets What Ifs

The one thing that's easy to notice in my original What If article is that the Giants and Jets weren't really included. This isn't to think that neither team had any less important What Ifs than anyone else. It's because I can come up with many what if scenarios for both franchises since 1984. I've decided to limit it to three each to avoid a particularly long column, meaning I had to cut out a bunch of what ifs, such as "What if Doug Brien could make a field goal in the playoffs against Pittsburgh in 2004" or "What if Plaxico Burress didn't shoot himself last year." So let's begin with the Giants since the Jets history is littered with them.


3. What if Bill Parcells doesn't quit as Giants head coach in May 1991?

Following the Super Bowl winning season of 1990, Bill Parcells took his time deciding his future with the Giants, before resigning on May 15, 1991. The Giants picked offensive coordinator Ray Handley to replace him as coach. The result of this was the immediate fall of the Giants as overnight, the defense aged, Jeff Hostetler and Phil Simms couldn't get a handle on the starting QB job and Ray Handley just stood there emotionless and perplexed on the sidelines. For Giants fans, he was Joe Walton, Rich Kotite that Jets fans are all too familiar with. He even hired Rod Rust, the worst coach in NFL history as defensive coordinator. After going 14-18 in two seasons, he was fired and has not only never coached again, he has never spoke to the media again.


So what if Parcells didn't quit in May '91? Well there's two ways to look at this, either Parcells stayed or he left sooner after Super Bowl XXV. If he stays, they make one final Super Bowl run in '91 and he retires after the season. Then, they would be looking at a Bill Cowher, though there's a good chance they go with Handley again. But, if Parcells left a few days after the victory over the Bills, then the Giants would still have a chance to keep their defensive coordinator... you guessed it, Bill Belichick. He was hired by the Cleveland Browns a week after the win, but before the Giants played the Patriots, Gary Myers wrote that George Young preferred Handley over Belichick because of Belichick's well-known icy demeanor. However, he was popular amongst his defense and if him being coach extends their effectiveness as a unit, the Giants could have been good for a few more years into the 90s. Of course, the Ray Handley era does lead to what if number two.


2. What if Dan Reeves picked Jeff Hostetler over Phil Simms before the 1993 season?

When Dan Reeves replaced Ray Handley for the 1993 season, he knew he had to decide on Hostetler and Simms. Keeping both of them for the '91 and '92 seasons and having them compete for the starting job was bad for both of them. It's never good to have two quarterbacks, because the pressure to perform or be yanked can be too great. Reeves decided to keep Simms for '93 and the Giants responded to an 11-5 season, and almost won the NFC if it wasn't for the Emmitt Smith Game (they wouldn't have beat that Cowboys team in the playoffs if they played them in the Meadowlands anyway). Simms earned Pro Bowl honors, but did most of his work late in '93 with a sore shoulder. Even though Simms underwent surgery that offseason, he still was set to play the 1994 season when the Giants cut him the day after the Rangers Cup win. This led to the Giants rushing the Dave Brown era, arguably the worst QB era in history and that history includes Joe Pisarcik; along with an four year period where there was no star player since Simms and LT were gone.


The less obvious question is what if Reeves picked Hostetler when determining who to keep between the two quarterbacks. Hostetler played his best during his time taking over for Simms since he had job security and that's also what he had with L.A./Oakland Raiders when he signed there. I'm sure his stats would have been similar to what he did in L.A. in 1993, and he led them to a second round playoff appearance, like the Giants did. Most importantly, Hostetler would have been the QB for all four years that Dan Reeves was there and maybe Reeves would of lasted longer than the four years. The Dave Brown era wouldn't have happened in New York as the Giants eventually trade him somewhere else and becomes another team's embarrassment. By the time Hostetler retires, the Giants would be able to draft someone new or sign Kerry Collins like they did.



1. What if Jeremy Shockey catches the dropped touchdown pass when the Giants collapsed in San Francisco?

I think this is the obvious number one though one would think that I would argue about the fateful last play. However, this touchdown would have ended this game and continued a bounce back season. After being one of the first year-after Super Bowl loser slump teams that we have seen lately, the Giants were showing signs of rebounding in 2002. They started slowly, but when Jim Fassel took over calling offensive plays, the Giants won seven of their last nine to make the playoffs. Kerry Collins threw for over 4,000 yards; Tiki Barber had nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage scoring 11 TD's; Amani Toomer had his finest year as a pro with 82 catches, 1,343 yards and eight TD's and despite only two touchdowns, Shockey gave the Giants a lethal dynamic at tight end during his rookie year, which Giants fans loved, hearkening back to the days of Mark Bavaro.


Following a rugged defensive struggle with the Eagles which the Giants barely won, the Giants went to San Francisco to face the 49ers. Despite a Terrell Owens early touchdown, the Giants offense started to score with ease and the Giants were up 35-14 when Shockey dropped a sure touchdown in the end zone. The Giants kicked a field goal to make it 38-14, and the Niners came roaring back to take a 39-38 lead off an unusually weak defense that season that the numbers didn't show. Everyone remembers the last play as the Giants achilles heel, field goal kicking, appeared and the non-call for pass interference ended the game. The following season, a Brian Westbrook punt return for a touchdown started a slide that ended Fassel's seven-year run with the Giants. It also resulted in a clean house as Tom Coughlin was hired, Kerry Collins was cut and the Giants made the move for Eli Manning. This loss set the stage for the Giants Super Bowl win in 2008.


So what if Shockey catches that pass and makes the score 42-14? Well, the Niners would have not finished the comeback, or at the very least, it goes to overtime. Then again, maybe the Giants stay aggressive on offense and the games ends at a 52-35 type score. After the win, the Giants would face the Bucs and lose when Collins plays awful against the Bucs defense, shades of the Super Bowl XXXV loss. However, Fassel is definitely in better shape for the 2003 season without a monumental collapse hanging over his head and the Giants probably don't fall apart like they did that season. Which also means they aren't in the Eli Manning sweepstakes. Shockey's career turns out better, since he hasn't been the same after that game. However, the Giants don't win Super Bowl XLII because this would be a time that the Giants would get a new quarterback to replace Collins. That QB could be any of Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Matt Leinhart or Vince Young, among some of the recent first rounders at the position. Honestly, as a Giant fan, I don't regret the Niner game because it sets up the latest run of Giants success, something the Jets haven't had.



3. What if the Jets actually made the right draft pick instead of the wrong one?

Then we don't have this video. But for fun, let's see who the Jets missed out on during each draft shown. In 1980, they could of picked Art Monk instead of Johnny Lam Jones; Freeman McNeil was a fair pick in '81; obviously Dan Marino should of went over Ken O'Brien. You never pick a fullback in the first round, while they let Christian Okoye pass to Kansas City. Steve Atwater and Andre Rison should be ahead of Jeff Lageman, Emmitt Smith over Blair Thomas, Chester McGlockton and Levon Kirkland over Johnny Mitchell and as evident in the video, Warren Sapp over Kyle Brady are the remaining players they missed.



2. What if Chad Pennington doesn't injure his rotator cuff during Week 9 of the 2004 season?


Chad Pennington's career was bouncing back in 2004. He led the Jets to the second round in 2002, but then started 2003 injured and the Jets plummeted to 6-10. Pennington was healthy in 2004 and was given a contract extension and proceed to give the Jets a fast start to the season, going 5-0. During a Week 9 loss to Buffalo, he tore his rotator cuff and missed the next three games. Quincy Carter took over at QB and the team went 2-1, but when Chad returned, it seemed that his shoulder wasn't fully healed and the Jets struggled down the stretch to a 10-6 record. They were lucky to win in San Diego when the Chargers played "Martyball", but lost to the Steelers when Herm Edwards played Martyball. Since then, Pennington has continued as a roller coaster ride with even years playing well and odds playing poor or hurt (and if you think this will effect my Dolphins preview, you're right.


So what if Pennington stays healthy for the 2004 season? I don't think it changes their 2004, maybe they beat Pittsburgh, but they don't beat New England. However, if he's not hurt, his 2005 outlook changes completely. If he plays a full season, the Jets aren't 4-12. As a matter of fact, I think they beat a down Pats team for the AFC East, who only won because the Jets and Bills were awful and the Fins were one of those second half surprises. They host a wild card game against the Jaguars and win, before losing to the Broncos in Denver. Most importantly, the injury weakened an already weak throwing arm and without it, I certainly see Pennington still with the Jets, though the team is more like the Eagles of recent memory since the AFC still has the Pats, Colts and Steelers as the dominant teams.



1. What if Dan Marino doesn't fake spike the Jets on Nov. 27, 1994?

The backstory of this game is interesting. The Bills were finally vulnerable in the AFC East after the four Super Bowl losses and were in second with a 6-5 record. The Patriots won two in a row and improved to 5-6, tied with the Colts for last place. After a 7-2, the Dolphins dropped their next two to come down to 7-4. And low and behold, the Jets, under first-year head coach Pete Carroll had recovered from a three-game losing streak to a 6-5 record and second in the division. They faced Miami and lead 24-6, when Marino led a comeback and scored the final touchdown on the infamous fake spike play, winning 28-24. The Jets didn't win another game in 1994 and fired Carroll after the 6-10 finish. Then they hired Rich Kotite, a man who was fired after overseeing the Eagles lose their last nine games in that same season and went 4-28 in those two years.


So what if the Jets beat the Dolphins? They would have tied Miami at 7-5 with four games left with the Pats and Bills at 6-6. The Jets certainly don't lose to Houston and they should beat the Lions at home and if they beat the Pats in New England, they win the AFC East. If they lose, they are a wild card team visiting Cleveland. Even if they don't beat Detroit, they still finish 8-8 and Pete Carroll is still coaching the Jets in 1995. He then gets to prove himself in his first stint as coach, instead of becoming a wash out in the NFL with New England and the best coach in college football this decade. However, the Bill Parcells era likely doesn't happen, since the Tuna has been known to take on teams from rock bottom (i.e. New England, Miami). The Rich Kotite years led to Parcells, and Parcells led to the best season for the Jets since Joe Namath was predicting football games.