Tomorrow will be the true start of March Madness, so today, there will be looks at all four regions. I figured that once some of the First Four games were played, and a couple of days to think about the bracket would be wise before going ahead with this post. Since there was no play-in games in this region, let's start with the South, looking at grouping the teams based on chances on advancing.
THANKS FOR ATTENDING
Western Kentucky (16) and Northwestern State (14) have no shot of an upset. Thus, we get reminded how we have no idea what the Hilltoppers mascot is and that Northwestern State has made more NCAA appearances than Northwestern, who's in the Big 10.
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE?
This is the group for Florida Gulf Coast (15), South Dakota State (13) and Akron (12). If everything broke right, an upset can occur. Akron's hurt by a suspension of PG Alex Abreu, which is a killer against VCU. I'm also pretty sure that Georgetown will be on guard for the upset by FGC. The Jackrabbits of SD State are on this list because they gave Baylor a scare last year; unfortunately I think Michigan won't allow another First Round loss (for the purposes of this and any other posts, I will, rightfully, refer to the Second Round as First Round), after the one Ohio gave them a year ago.
MAY AS WELL BE A GAME FROM THE NIT
San Diego State (7) vs. Oklahoma (10). Neither team is beating Georgetown and they are close enough competitively that seed doesn't matter. The rule of thumb is to pick against Steve Fisher-coached teams in the tourney, since they only won a game in the tourney once since 1994, right before Juwan Howard and Jalen Rose went to the NBA. Oklahoma is the pick by default.
ROCK(CHALK), PAPER, SCISSORS
For some reason, I think Villanova (9) has a shot to pull over Kansas. Problem is, North Carolina (8) looks like they will create matchup problems with the Wildcats. Which is too bad, because there's no way that the Tar Heels knock off the Jayhawks.
SHOULDN'T THESE SEEDS BE REVERSED?
UCLA (6) vs. Minnesota (11). I know why Minnesota is an 11-seed, but the Bruins are missing Jordan Adams and the Gophers will be happy to be freed from Big 10 play. They finished the year 5-11 after a 15-1 start. I think playing on neutral courts can get them back to a November-December rhythm. Don't be surprised if Minnesota can make their way to the Sweet 16; they rebound the ball very well.
DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH THESE TEAMS
Kansas (1), Florida (3) and Michigan (4) all will be picked to go to the Final Four in a bunch of brackets. Florida, in fact, has the Nate Silver seal of approval. With the Gators, I really don't like how they have absolutely zero close wins. As for Kansas and Michigan, they seem to be bad matchups for VCU and Shaka Smart's Havoc.
ELITE EIGHT
VCU (5) vs. Georgetown (2). I'm relishing this matchup with Otto Porter and the Hoyas will try to slow down the Rams of VCU who will do all they can to rev up the tempo in this one. In the end, I don't think there's enough for Georgetown to pull through past the Rams.
South Region Winner: VCU
Showing posts with label North Carolina. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Carolina. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Monday, March 30, 2009
March Madness review and Final Four preview
Last week I wrote a post longing for the old days of March Madness, wanting more upsets and buzzer-beaters. Turns out, we only had one game that was like that. But my purpose today isn't really to complain, it's to react to what we watched last week.
We start with UConn seeing as they were the first team in the final four. They successfully showed they can handle the distractions that the program is under with the recruiting accusations. Quick sidebar: If Calhoun did anything more than just calling or texting Nate Miles or any other recruits, then UConn should be punished. But the fact that calling someone or texting someone a few extra times can have the NCAA possibly take away a potential championship from them is absurd. Worse case, loss of some scholarships if the result wasn't a big deal. Back to basketball, I was a little surprised that Purdue and Missouri hung around as long as they did after UConn ran out to early 10-pt leads. Not as surprised as I was that Mizzou beat Memphis, but I should saw this coming. The last C-USA loss Memphis has came against UAB when Mike Anderson was still coach them. Memphis had no way of stopping them, Missouri kept coming at them. UConn I believe is the favorite to win the championship now that Louisville is out because there is a rhythm that they are playing that makes them tough to beat, and more importantly, all three teams will have trouble driving the lane with Thabeet in the middle. That means a greater dependence on the 3 will be needed by Michigan St and the Nova/UNC winner. Michigan St. is now an interesting team after beating Kansas and Louisville to get to the Final Four.
The Spartans can slow down the game like no one left in the tourney, plus they are the de facto home team in Detroit. They're guards are very intelligent and composed; the way they made Louisville look yesterday should be shown by every Big East school when they practice for the Cards next year. It looked to me that Michigan St wanted it more than Louisville, they took many of the hustle plays. Plus Goran Suton was great yesterday and broke the Pitino zone. Now we will have a great matchup of coaches; Calhoun vs. Izzo. The biggest difference between Louisville and UConn is the Huskies can play half-court defense better than the Cards. Louisville needs to play a team they can press to death and score on transition. UConn is more efficient in the half-court both on offense and defense. Also to like about UConn, the likely pro-Spartan crowd won't affect the Huskies since they are the best road team remaining and Calhoun has never lost a Final Four game in his two previous trips. UConn should win the 1st semi; my score, 72-63.
The best game of the tournament was Villanova-Pitt Saturday night and at the time, I thought I still had a chance to win my pool since I didn't believe anyone else took Nova. Unfortunately that wasn't the case, but it doesn't diminish the game in the slightest. Both teams came to play,after Nova dominated Duke and Pitt needed the Fields 3 and steal to beat Xavier. It was a back and forth affair between two Big East teams who don't get outtoughed. The turning point of the game was after the timeout Jay Wright called with Pitt up 4 and Nova came out and promptly stole the ball and the foul, cutting the deficit to 1. They followed with another layup to take the lead and after two Lavance Fields FT's, Dwayne Anderson hit a three to make it 71-69 Nova. It looked like Nova had it won, until the awful inbound play which put Fields on the line to tie it. But with 5 seconds left, Scottie Reynolds on a perfect inbound play ran cross court and make one of the greatest shots in tourney history. They will face North Carolina, who dominated Gonzaga and Oklahoma en route to Detroit. North Carolina pushed the tempo way up against both, the Zags didn't have the talent to match and Oklahoma couldn't do anything defensively against the Heels.
This sets up a very intriging matchup with the Tar Heels and the Wildcats. Villanova has a good chance to pull the upset, they have terrific guard play, can be deliberate on offense. They need to keep the scoring low because they won't beat UNC if the score goes into the 90's. There's a reason why most people think UNC is the favorite, they are by far the best offensive team left and Nova has to be ready for UNC to run up and down the court. They also need to have an answer for Lawson; this team goes as he goes. Villanova needs to spread out North Carolina on defense and take their time and get good shots, which they are capable. They also need to be able to frustrate them, like they did against UCLA and Duke. I think UNC can get frustrated by them and I not sure if UNC would quit. They never have showed me a particular toughness when things go wrong. That being said, UNC is capable of starting the game like they did yesterday and Nova can't comeback. Prediction: I really want to pick Villanova, I do. They can come at anyone and beat anyone. However, I ultimately don't think they will stop Lawson, no matter how hard they try. UNC has to win, this is why everyone from last year came back, to win the title. So it looks like I will pick the Heels. Maybe not, this is the greatest year a conference ever had, and dammit, there will be a Big East championship game. Nova wins 77-72 and face UConn.
We start with UConn seeing as they were the first team in the final four. They successfully showed they can handle the distractions that the program is under with the recruiting accusations. Quick sidebar: If Calhoun did anything more than just calling or texting Nate Miles or any other recruits, then UConn should be punished. But the fact that calling someone or texting someone a few extra times can have the NCAA possibly take away a potential championship from them is absurd. Worse case, loss of some scholarships if the result wasn't a big deal. Back to basketball, I was a little surprised that Purdue and Missouri hung around as long as they did after UConn ran out to early 10-pt leads. Not as surprised as I was that Mizzou beat Memphis, but I should saw this coming. The last C-USA loss Memphis has came against UAB when Mike Anderson was still coach them. Memphis had no way of stopping them, Missouri kept coming at them. UConn I believe is the favorite to win the championship now that Louisville is out because there is a rhythm that they are playing that makes them tough to beat, and more importantly, all three teams will have trouble driving the lane with Thabeet in the middle. That means a greater dependence on the 3 will be needed by Michigan St and the Nova/UNC winner. Michigan St. is now an interesting team after beating Kansas and Louisville to get to the Final Four.
The Spartans can slow down the game like no one left in the tourney, plus they are the de facto home team in Detroit. They're guards are very intelligent and composed; the way they made Louisville look yesterday should be shown by every Big East school when they practice for the Cards next year. It looked to me that Michigan St wanted it more than Louisville, they took many of the hustle plays. Plus Goran Suton was great yesterday and broke the Pitino zone. Now we will have a great matchup of coaches; Calhoun vs. Izzo. The biggest difference between Louisville and UConn is the Huskies can play half-court defense better than the Cards. Louisville needs to play a team they can press to death and score on transition. UConn is more efficient in the half-court both on offense and defense. Also to like about UConn, the likely pro-Spartan crowd won't affect the Huskies since they are the best road team remaining and Calhoun has never lost a Final Four game in his two previous trips. UConn should win the 1st semi; my score, 72-63.
The best game of the tournament was Villanova-Pitt Saturday night and at the time, I thought I still had a chance to win my pool since I didn't believe anyone else took Nova. Unfortunately that wasn't the case, but it doesn't diminish the game in the slightest. Both teams came to play,after Nova dominated Duke and Pitt needed the Fields 3 and steal to beat Xavier. It was a back and forth affair between two Big East teams who don't get outtoughed. The turning point of the game was after the timeout Jay Wright called with Pitt up 4 and Nova came out and promptly stole the ball and the foul, cutting the deficit to 1. They followed with another layup to take the lead and after two Lavance Fields FT's, Dwayne Anderson hit a three to make it 71-69 Nova. It looked like Nova had it won, until the awful inbound play which put Fields on the line to tie it. But with 5 seconds left, Scottie Reynolds on a perfect inbound play ran cross court and make one of the greatest shots in tourney history. They will face North Carolina, who dominated Gonzaga and Oklahoma en route to Detroit. North Carolina pushed the tempo way up against both, the Zags didn't have the talent to match and Oklahoma couldn't do anything defensively against the Heels.
This sets up a very intriging matchup with the Tar Heels and the Wildcats. Villanova has a good chance to pull the upset, they have terrific guard play, can be deliberate on offense. They need to keep the scoring low because they won't beat UNC if the score goes into the 90's. There's a reason why most people think UNC is the favorite, they are by far the best offensive team left and Nova has to be ready for UNC to run up and down the court. They also need to have an answer for Lawson; this team goes as he goes. Villanova needs to spread out North Carolina on defense and take their time and get good shots, which they are capable. They also need to be able to frustrate them, like they did against UCLA and Duke. I think UNC can get frustrated by them and I not sure if UNC would quit. They never have showed me a particular toughness when things go wrong. That being said, UNC is capable of starting the game like they did yesterday and Nova can't comeback. Prediction: I really want to pick Villanova, I do. They can come at anyone and beat anyone. However, I ultimately don't think they will stop Lawson, no matter how hard they try. UNC has to win, this is why everyone from last year came back, to win the title. So it looks like I will pick the Heels. Maybe not, this is the greatest year a conference ever had, and dammit, there will be a Big East championship game. Nova wins 77-72 and face UConn.
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