Showing posts with label Division Series. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Division Series. Show all posts

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Red Sox-Angels Preview


I've saved the best for last as without a doubt, this is the best of the four Division Series. Why you ask? Because the National League series' don't count and the Yankees-Twins is a mismatch on paper. On paper, this is fairly even and the history of past matchups make this series intriguing. Let's begin with the preview:


1B: Kevin Youkilis vs. Kendry Morales- The tough thing with doing position-based comparisons is that the Red Sox could have different lineups on any given day, such as Victor Martinez or Casey Kotchman (no chance) at first and Youk at third. As for this matchup, Morales has had a terrific year, among the list of players most responsible for the Angels success. As for Youkilis, he's probably the most important player on the Red Sox, mainly because his willingness to play multiple positions (something players of his statue feel are beneath them). This really should be even, but postseason experience plays a role in this matchup. Advantage Red Sox


2B: Dustin Pedroia vs. Howie Kendrick- At his best, Kendrick is as good a hitter as there is in baseball. Just ask the Yankees. If only he can play a full season, he can win a batting title. As for Pedroia, here's what I've noticed from him this year: at home, he swings to the Green Monster, however on the road he keeps that swing which usually costs him (especially at Yankee Stadium). His home/road splits reflect this (.318/10/49 at home, .273/5/26 on the road). However, Pedroia is a table setter and Kendrick is more depth in the lineup. Advantage Red Sox


SS: Alex Gonzalez vs. Erick Aybar- The trade for Gonzalez is one of the most underrated this year as he adds some stability at shortstop that the Sox haven't had since Orlando Cabrera in 2004. He also has history of being clutch in 2003 for the Marlins when he turned around the World Series with a home run off Jeff Weaver (Joe Torre's new BFF). Aybar has been the Angels most consistent hitter, leading the team with a .312 average. Also, anytime a shortstop is toward the top of a lineup, it's a positive for that team. Advantage Angels


3B: Mike Lowell vs. Chone Figgins- Lowell has been a good playoff performer for the Red Sox and is somewhat healthy for a change. He will always win this battle in terms of power as Figgins has none. However, Figgins does his damage on the basepaths with perfect hits down either line and his blazing speed. Finally, Figgins is the clear-cut better defensive player. Even


LF: Jason Bay vs. Juan Rivera- This has been a terrific season for Rivera, who's finally proving Jerome from Manhattan right. His season this year has made Rivera someone you must gameplan for. Despite the low average, Bay has had one of the best contract-year seasons of recent memory with 36 HR's and 119 RBI. Though, Rivera can mash them and drive them with a better average, I like Bay a little bit more in this one. Advantage Red Sox


CF: Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Torii Hunter- This is another battle between speed and power. Ellsbury has more of an impact on the bases seeing as he led the AL in steals. Hunter has had his share of injuries, but finally is appearing healthy for this ball club. Since Hunter's stats are similar to Lowell's, you would think I will even them. Wrong. Remember, Hunter is one of the best to play centerfield with the glove. Advantage Angels (has nothing to do with Hunter's mammoth 3-run HR tonight)


RF: J.D. Drew vs. Bobby Abreu- Drew is such a maddening player that I don't know what to expect from him. He could go .500/3/10 or he could go .150/0/1 in the series. Abreu isn't anything special, just very consistent putting up a .290 average with a .400 on-base. He's the man in the lineup that can take the pitches the way anyone on the Red Sox can. The only thing that Abreu can worry you is playing a fly ball played at the wall, while Drew is great with the glove. Advantage Angels


Catcher: Victor Martinez vs. Mike Napoli- Napoli has shown a lot of power for a catcher in his career and will probably end up DHing many games in the future. Martinez has already proven to be a versatile player playing catcher and first base regularly for the past couple years. He really has been the difference between the Red Sox being in the playoffs, plus they can put Jason Varitek on the bench. Advantage Red Sox


DH: David Ortiz vs. Vlad Guerrero- If you ask this question four years ago, you have the matchup of the playoffs. Now, both guys have fallen off from high levels, but still can hit from time to time. The difference is that good pitching always beats Ortiz, making his 28 HR's useless, while Vlad can still hit for average and hit the occasional home run. Advantage Angels


Starting Pitching: For the Red Sox, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett are their givens because Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka aren't. The series depends on the performance by both pitchers, unless Lester pitches on short rest. As for the Angels, the staff has been steady with John Lackey and Jered Weaver, but the trade for Scott Kazmir ups the ante since he has had success against the Red Sox. Advantage Angels


Bullpen: Unlike past years, the Angels bullpen is a question mark. Brian Fuentes is a downgrade from Frankie Rodriguez and the most reliable arm is Darren Oliver, I mean DARREN OLIVER. The Red Sox are much more organized with Jonathan Papelbon finishing strong and guys like Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima and yes, Billy Wagner pitching well for them. Advantage Red Sox


Bench: Both benches aren't really going to get a huge hit that often, and more or less are there to fill in spots, such as Rocco Baldelli and Gary Matthews Jr. as fourth outfielder, Maicer Izturis and Nick Green for utility infielder and Jeff Mathis and Jason Varitek as backup catcher. Even


Manager: Terry Francona vs. Mike Scioscia- Both men have won World Series. Scioscia lead the Angels with his style of play, while Francona uses the Joe Torre "keep everyone in the clubhouse calm" approach. Even though Francona has achieved plenty of success against Scioscia, this matchup in my eyes is always down the middle. Even


Intangibles: The Red Sox history of beating the Angels each time they faced one another. The Angels have been dedicating this season to Nick Adenhart in almost every way. The celebration after winning the AL West, the vigil outside the stadium that I saw during my trip to the Big A all seem like this season has a purpose that's greater than just a championship. Even


The Red Sox will win if: Based on yesterday's results; win a game that isn't started by Beckett or Lester; the bullpen must pitch as good as 2007; the lineup gets clutch hits by veterans like Ortiz, Lowell; Angels tighten up the sphincters in these close games.


The Angels will win if: They got a win against Lester so if they can get one more against Beckett/Lester. Otherwise, if Beckett is still hurt; the bullpen for Boston isn't as sharp and the Angels one plays well; the starters go deep in games; the Angels can impose their style of baseball and run on the Red Sox catchers; Red Sox veterans look old.


Prediction: It was Angels in five before Game 1 and it hasn't changed.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Twins-Yankees Preview

The N.Y. Yankees finally have an opponent in the ALDS as they will face the Minnesota Twins who beat the Detroit Tigers in a crazy game that was a great game on the field and a terrible one from the broadcast booth. Unfortunately, Chip Caray follows the Twins to Yankee Stadium in a series that will make you glad to hear Joe Buck and Tim McCarver in the ALCS. Let's preview:


Infield: Just like in the Phillies series, there an area that one team is better than the other. Now, the Twins have good infielders in Michael Cuddyer and Orlando Cabrera, but losing Justin Morneau makes this easy. Cuddyer isn't in Mark Teixeira's league where Morneau is a push, Derek Jeter has the advantage over Cabrera (though not in a romp) and Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano are enormous differences over Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto. Advantage Yankees


LF: Delmon Young vs. Johnny Damon- While the Yankees have an all-time great infield, the outfield is not as good and we start at left field. Damon has had a fine year and his swing is built for Yankee Stadium, however he has struggled in the last month and needs to bounce back. Meanwhile, Young had the exact opposite season, starting very slow, but has been hot for the past two months, getting big hits in lifting the Twins. If you ask me in July, it's advantage Yanks, but I can't ignore the fact that is seems like Young is starting to get it and realize his potential. Even


CF: Denard Span vs. Melky Cabrera- The interesting thing about both players is that they can be moved to left field for defensive purposes, not because either guy is poor, but because left field must be addressed late in games. Great bounce back year for Cabrera and he early on had a bunch of walkoff hits. Span is a very good ballplayer who can bring speed both with hitting and defense. These two really are the same player except for Span's speed and hitting, but Melky is the 8th man on the Yanks where Span is the 3rd or 4th guy on the Twins. Advantage Twins


RF: Jason Kubel vs. Nick Swisher- Swisher has been one of the catalysts in the loosening up of the mid-2000s Yankees as his personality is more like one of the Red Sox "Idiots" from the 2004 title team. Kubel has been clutch in the past month with big HR's, picking up the slack for Morneau's injury. While Swisher's role in the clubhouse is important, he hits just like Jason Giambi, has power and plate discipline, but can't hit for average. Hitting for average is overrated though as long as your on-base is good and that certainly applies for Swisher. Advantage Twins


Catcher: Joe Mauer vs. Jorge Posada/Jose Molina- The reason Molina is here is because of A.J. Burnett, otherwise he's on the bench group. While Molina turns the Yankees into a National League team, Posada can still rake if needed, though not the same degree. However, Molina controls the basepaths better than Posada can. Wait a minute, why am I spending time on this, Joe Mauer is the best player in the AL and only Pujols could be better in baseball. Advantage Twins


DH: Jose Morales vs. Hideki Matsui- This is another reason where losing Morneau hurts the Twins; before you have Cuddyer in right field and Kubel as DH. Morales just doesn't stack up when compared with Matsui, who has hit as well as he has since four years. Advantage Yankees


Starting pitching: The Yankees can pitch only three guys, the Twins need to pitch four. None of the Twins starters can dominate like CC Sabathia or even A.J. Burnett. Carl Pavano is prominently involved and is cited as a positive for the Twins. Burnett gets to use his personal catcher for his starts, so he better pitch well, since Andy Pettitte will only start one game. Advantage Yankees


Bullpen: Unlike the starters, the bullpens are much closer mainly because Joe Nathan is, if not as good as Mariano Rivera, he's at least one notch below. They also have four relievers in Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares who have pitched very well on the Twins. Obviously, the Yanks have Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson who have done well and perhaps the Yanks will see the old Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. Even


Bench: The Twins bench has more speed than power, and is more likely to steal a base than get a big hit with guys like Alexi Casilla and Carlos "Does my run last night even out the Johan Santana trade" Gomez. The Yankees I have to say have their best bench in years with Eric Hinske and Jerry Hairston Jr. and counter the speed with Brett Gardner. Advantage Yankees


Manager: Ron Gardenhire vs. Joe Girardi- Girardi to be fair has done a good job on this Yankees team, though I think he could have handled this Burnett-Posada situation better. Naturally, because I follow the Yankees all year and the Twins I barely watch, I will be picking more nits with Joe than Ron. I just watch the Twins year in and year out and they are just the same and that has to do with Gardenhire. Plus, he's managed in postseason, while Girardi is now in his first. Advantage Twins


Intangibles: The word intangibles in the dictionary has a picture of the Twins. The Yankees looseness is the best I can come up with. The Twins have the momentum of a 17-4 run that put them in the playoffs, while playing without Morneau. I said before how Morneau is a big loss; well the Twins don't realize that yet. Also, I know the Yankees have played well in the Metrodome, but right now, that place has a magic that's hard to just write off. Advantage Twins


The Twins will win if: Murphy's Law prevails for both teams. Unlike any other series, the Twins must have each of the following happen: CC continues postseason struggles; Burnett blows up in Game 2; each Yankee in the lineup goes on a slump, leading to more A-Rod in postseason talk; the Metrodome proves to be a huge home-field advantage; Mauer plays MVP-like and their hitters follow suit.


The Yankees will win if: Anything from the above doesn't happen. Let's put it this way, if the Yankees lose this series to the Twins, only the Red Sox in 2004 would be a worse loss. Almost every advantage belongs to the Yankees and they must win this series or people should be fired.


Prediction: Yankees in four

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Rockies-Phillies Preview

Finishing up the NLDS is the first series to start as we have a rematch between the Phillies and Rockies from 2007. Of course, back then, both teams made incredible runs to get to the playoffs; now they both kind of coasted in, though the Rockies did have to fire Clint Hurdle to get going in June. Let's see where these two stand:


1B: Todd Helton vs. Ryan Howard- If this was the Todd Helton of ten years ago, he would win. Even now, Helton is a key hitter and can always be counted on to hit .300 for Colorado. Howard continues to follow the Albert Pujols plan of consistently good seasons, posting another 45-HR, 140-RBI season this year. Helton is more get on base, continue/start a rally, Howard is empty the bases on one swing, plus he plays good defense. Advantage Phillies


2B: Clint Barmes vs. Chase Utley- Barmes has had his moments this year, and is among the Rockies best power hitters, but Chase Utley is arguably the best second baseman in baseball. If he's not, he's certainly in the class of Robbie Cano, Aaron Hill and Dustin Pedroia. Advantage Phillies


SS: Troy Tulowitzki vs. Jimmy Rollins- Initially, I was thinking that Rollins is the advantage because he's a clutch hitter and is great defensively. However, Tulowitzki was the best player in the Rockies lineup and is reverting back to 2007-level, which for this team is always a good thing. Advantage Rockies


3B: Ian Stewart vs. Pedro Feliz- Bonus points for Stewart for having my middle and last name. As for real baseball matters, Stewart has power, but can't hit for average, while Feliz might not have the numbers of the rest of his lineup, but from time to time, he comes up with a big hit, like most of the rest of this team does. Advantage Phillies


OF: I'm grouping the OF's together because it's not really close. Raul Ibanez is much better than Seth Smith, Shane Victorino is more valuable than Dexter Fowler and maybe Brad Hawpe is as good as Jayson Werth, except he might not play a lot of this series since the Phillies can throw lefties most of the time. Advantage Phillies


Catcher: Chris Iannetta/Yorvit Torrealba vs. Carlos Ruiz- While Ruiz was huge in the World Series for the Phillies last year and you can make the case he should have been MVP, the tandem of Iannetta and Torreabla have done a terrific job in tandem and have been as strong as any catcher platoon in recent memory in which both guys bring something to the table more than just "I can catch knuckleballs" and "A.J. likes me better". Advantage Rockies


Starting pitching: The Phillies have the better upside as Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are the two best pitchers in this series. What I don't know is if Lee will go on three days rest so both can start four of the five games. Also, the third starter is a question mark and even Hamels and Lee aren't givens. Meanwhile, the Rockies have a assembled a very solid pitching staff who doesn't depend on one guy. They don't have to worry about a "Game 4 do we need to pitch so-and-so" because they know Jason Marquis can handle it. The only reason I don't give the Rockies the advantage is that Lee and Hamels can dominate. Even

Bullpen: We all know the questions with the Phillies bullpen start with closer as Brad Lidge can no longer be trusted in a late-inning situation. They have Ryan Madson and Brett Myers who I think are as good as Lidge (not saying much). Add that J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre are hurting, leaving the Phillies without a lefty reliever unless they use J.A. Happ out of the bullpen. The Rockies on the other hand have the best bullpen of any NL team led by Huston Street and Franklin Morales, both of whom can close. This matchup really isn't close. Advantage Rockies


Bench: The Phillies have been terrific in bringing in guys like Eric Bruntlett, Ben Francisco, Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs and they always seem to do something in every game. For the Rockies, Jason Giambi has been a huge acquisition and they can get help from Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Eric Young Jr. Even


Manager: Jim Tracy vs. Charlie Manuel- You can't discount how the Rockies played under Tracy, bouncing from 12 under .500 in June to a relatively easy wild card winner. However, Manuel is the perfect manager for this ball club and you can't argue against a championship. Advantage Phillies


Intangibles: The Rockies and Philles both have a been there before quality that makes each a tough out. For the Rockies, it's a belief they will catch fire, while the Phillies have a "anyone of us will get the big hit" quality. The Rockies share the Phillies trait, but the Phillies can look at last year's title for inspiration. Even


The Rockies will win if: They play like they have since June meaning everyone contributes and starters pitch big; Philadelphia can't fix the bullpen; Lee and Hamels never come around; Howard and Utley go into slumps.


The Phillies will win if: Either Lidge regains last year's form or Madson fits the closer role like a glove; Lee and Hamels pitch like aces; they can get something out of Pedro; the lineup hits like they're supposed and Rockies lineup does the same.


Prediction: Phillies in five

Monday, October 5, 2009

Dodgers-Cardinals Preview


A long time ago, I once wrote how I get bored of baseball during the regular season. It gets too long and especially in April and May, there are other sports on the radar. However, once the calender hits October, I'm all in for baseball. It's all the things that make you hate Yankees and Red Sox games (taking pitches, making every at-bat count, leading to four hour games), only it's fair to do this and becomes a positive. For the playoffs, I will preview each and every series throughout the playoffs, beginning with the Dodgers and the Cardinals.


Both Los Angeles and St. Louis have been in first place for the majority of the season. The Dodgers led easily in the first half, while the Cardinals opened a big lead in the second half. Both were active during the trade deadlines; Cards in July, Dodgers in August. St. Louis arguably made the biggest trade when they acquired Matt Holliday from Oakland and put him behind Albert Pujols. The Dodgers added depth by trading for Jon Garland, George Sherrill, Ronnie Belliard and Jim Thome. Let's see how these teams stack up:


1B: Albert Pujols vs. James Loney- Read that matchup again, Advantage Cards


2B: Skip Schumaker vs. Orlando Hudson- Schumaker is a nice player, but Hudson is among the top-5 underrated players in all of baseball. Advantage Dodgers


SS: Brendan Ryan/Julio Lugo vs. Rafael Furcal- I wouldn't have two players here except I think Ryan and Lugo will split time. Unfortunately, Furcal can match the production of both players and the Cardinals can't play both. Advantage Dodgers


3B: Mark DeRosa vs. Casey Blake- Honestly, both guys are great to have on a team. They're gritty, clutch and succeed on good teams. Even


LF: Matt Holliday vs. Manny Ramirez- The toughest matchup of players between both teams. Manny is someone you always want in the playoffs because he doesn't feel the pressure at the plate and tends to hit well. Holliday has done it before in the postseason and will field better than Ramirez. I would go with even, but Manny has not hit well in the second half and even if he did, Holliday will match him and be a difference maker on St. Louis. Advantage Cards


CF: Colby Rasmus vs. Matt Kemp- Rasmus isn't a bad centerfielder but he's matched with Matt Kemp, who had a career season. He's slumped lately, but I rather have him because he can be dynamic. Advantage Dodgers


RF: Ryan Ludwick vs. Andre Ethier- Ethier had his big year this season, while Ludwick had his last year. They both have similar power, Ethier has shown to be more clutch while Ludwick has played better defense. Even


Catcher: Yadier Molina vs. Russell Martin- Martin had a down year this year after an All-Star appearance, while you know what you're getting from Molina. He brings you terrific defense, above-average hitting and calls a good game. Advantage Cards

Starting pitching: The Cardinals have two Cy Young candidates in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Joel Piniero won 15 games as well as the other two and is as good a threesome of starters that anyone has. The Dodgers are behind in this one as Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley just don't match them. Advantage Cards


Bullpen: Either you have a shaky Cards bullpen with an overworked Dodger one. The main difference between the two is I'm more confident that Jonathan Broxton will close out a game than I am Ryan Franklin. Rule of thumb for closers, the ones who can strike hitters out have greater success than the ones who need to be clever and can't overpower. Advantage Dodgers


Bench: Let's see, the Dodgers can trot out Juan Pierre, Mark Loretta, Jim Thome, Ronnie Belliard and Brad Ausmus and the Cards match that with Troy Glaus and Rick Ankiel. Nuff said. Advantage Dodgers


Manager: Tony La Russa vs. Joe Torre- This is the first time these two great managers have faced each other in a playoff series. It's hard to figure out an advantage between the two, except I'm not worried about La Russa making the wrong bullpen moves that we have seen from Torre for the last five years (or just overworking pitchers). Slight Advantage Cards


Intangibles: Some people think the slow second half could hurt the Dodgers, but they played a little like the '05 White Sox did as they kind of coasted into the playoffs, then turned it on losing only once. Torre can also bring up his own experience with the '00 Yankees when they lost 15 of 18 and won the World Series. Advantage Dodgers


The Dodgers will win if: Manny starts hitting like the Manny of last year; the rest of the lineup is balanced; Wolf, Kershaw and Billingsley hold their own against the Cards three starters and win at least two games; Broxton proves to be clutch as a closer; Pujols and Holliday both have series-long slumps.


The Cards will win if: Pujols and Holliday both hit very well; Carpenter and Wainwright pitch like Cy Youngs; their bullpen is a plus and Ryan Franklin can make saves; Manny continues his slump and no other Dodgers step up.


Prediction: Cards in four.Bold