Revolving Recaps

Week 4 was a week which the underdogs reigned supreme, as nine of the fourteen dogs covered, with six of them winning outright. This seems like more of an indication that this season is one of those which the parity is prevalent, in the sense that separation between the best and the worst aren't that great. It will all make sense later this week when I write my first power poll, for now, here's the recaps of this week's games.


Let's start with the Jets, who had the easiest win of the week. LaDainian Tomlinson dominated today and Mark Sanchez continued his effective passing game. The Jets seem well oiled and only will get better with Santonio Holmes, Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace about to come back. As for the Bills, keep scouting Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker.

The game of the week was in Pittsburgh with another low-scoring battle between the Steelers and the Ravens. It was a must-win for the Ravens who couldn't afford to lose to Pittsburgh with Charlie Batch at QB. What impressed me about that game was how Joe Flacco was able to be somewhat effective, which is regular effective when playing the Steelers. Pittsburgh would have won had Jeff Reed hit a couple FG's, though, but that's another subtopic this year in the NFL, bad placekicking.

New Orleans continued it's Super Bowl hangover, struggling at home with the Panthers. The Saints left points early in the game by turning the ball over in Panthers territory twice. Also, the Saints couldn't score touchdowns and the mid-week acquisition of John Carney came up huge with a 3 for 3 day kicking FG's. Carolina was able to drive late, when the Saints defense turned up the pressure and Carolina couldn't even get a field goal try off. Panthers still have things to work on, but maybe they're no longer the worst in the league and Jimmy Clausen is gaining experience.

A funny game in Lambeau as the Packers had a barnburner with the always game Lions. Detroit really needs to learn how to win road games, but as Deion Sanders said on NFL Network last night, they aren't Homecoming anymore. Calvin Johnson makes his case for the best WR in football with his TD's, while Aaron Rodgers continued his impressive play. Once the Lions were stopped in the middle of the 4th quarter, the never saw the ball.

The game I figured was due to happen, the Bengals finally lost a game to a lesser team, which is bad enough, until you realize it's their archrival Browns. Yes, Terrell Owens had a big day, with 10 catches, 222 yards and a TD, but the offense still isn't that good and it's only a matter of time the mainstream media realizes that Carson Palmer isn't a good QB anymore. As for the Browns, all of a sudden, Peyton Hillis has become an effective running back. Still can't see this team play well enough to save Eric Mangini's job, and soon I want to see Colt McCoy play at QB.

The weirdest game happened in Tennessee as the Broncos rallied to win 26-20. Mostly nondescript game until the 4th when the Broncos got the ball at the Titans 1 after a pass interference call on a throw to Jabar Gaffney. After a penalty, Kyle Orton found Correll Buckhalter for the game-winning touchdown. On the kickoff, it was shades of the 1998 AFC Championship game for the Broncos as the kick was short and the Titans couldn't handle it. Denver took over, and iced it with a field goal. Still don't know what to make of either team.

This game was slightly weirder than Niners/Falcons, which played itself more like a Greek tragedy if you're a SF fan. They started so hot, getting a 14-0 lead, then let the Falcons slowly come back to make it 14-13 late in the 4th. That when Nate Clemens picked off Matt Ryan and ran it down the field, then loses focus on the run and gets stripped by Roddy White. Falcons proceed to march down the field and kick the winning field goal. Falcons survived their trap game and will move on, while the Niners continue to plummet and this might mean the end for Mike Singletary as head coach.

Instead of the Niners leading the NFC West, there's a three way tie at 2-2. The Cardinals lost another game on the road in blowout fashion 41-10 to the Chargers. Not much to say, the Chargers are playing well at home and the Cards are thinking about starting Max Hall next week. Meanwhile, the Rams had an easy win over the Seahawks at home and found themselves in a tie for first. I've been behind the Rams all year and I must say, they have the best chance to win the division. They have the best QB in rookie Sam Bradford, Steve Spagnuolo is as good a coach as that division has and Steven Jackson is skilled enough to make defenses key on the rush. The other thing to worry about is the Seahawks home field; they can win the division by going 8-0 at home alone.

Houston went into Oakland without Arian Foster for the first half. So they turned Derrick Ward into the version from the Giants early. It was close until Foster came in and ran a touchdown from 74 yards out. He scored another to make it 31-14, before holding on 31-24 over the Raiders. The Texans showed how good they are despite the loss of Andre Johnson, while the Raiders showed that...they're still the Raiders.

The play of the day happened in Jacksonville in a wildly competitive game between the Colts and Jaguars when Josh Scobee hit a 59 yard field goal to win it for the Jags. As usual when these two teams play, it was close, a back and forth contest which the guy with the ball last wins. Usually, that guy is Peyton Manning, but not yesterday. Now we have a Jags team, who I thought was among the five worst have the same record as Indianapolis.

The most hyped matchup Sunday was Donovan McNabb's return to Philly against Michael Vick's Eagles. Unfortunately for the Eagles, Vick got hit in the ribs and left the game and now won't play next week. That meant Kevin Kolb had to play again, and to be fair, he wasn't terrible and gets a chance to show how good he is with this week's game against the Niners. Meanwhile, McNabb and the Skins started fast, particularly with the running game, which the Eagles had trouble stopping all day. The second half was disjointed, but up 5 with 4 minutes left, McNabb ran for a first down, which didn't the Eagles much time for a comeback (though they came close). The Redskins win tied them with the Eagles for first with a very NFC West like 2-2.

Another team would join that tie as the Giants thoroughly dominated the Bears, even though the score was closer. Jay Cutler was battered by the Giants defense, sans Mathius Kiwanuka, to the tune of 9 sacks and left with a concussion at halftime. Once Todd Collins came in, the offense gave up and once the Giants drove down the field for a touchdown, the game was over. Still, the Giants have to clear up some areas, but the defense is getting better. As for the Bears, they now go from 3-0 and feeling good, to now at the crossroads this year with Cutler's injury. Of course, the Bears were lucky to be 3-0 anyway.

Just now, the Pats showed us Pats football. Trailing 7-6 at halftime, New England took advantage of every single Miami mistake en route to a 41-14 win. The offense did enough as Tom Brady channelled his 01-04 days while the much maligned defense took care of business in the second half. Player of the game goes to Patrick Chung who blocked a punt and a field goal, while running an interception back for a touchdown. Very impressive. While the Patriots righted their ship, the Dolphins now have lost to their two rivals at home in back-to-back weeks and if they are to win the division, they almost certainly have to win in New York and Foxboro. Troubling for the Fish, indeed.

NFL 2010 Preview: AFC

That's right, it's time for the NFL season to begin. The offseason was dominated by the Jets, who have claimed the throne from the Redskins as offseason champs (even though the Redskins gave their case as usual). They have told us all summer that they're the team to beat and now they must show us, as well as the rest of the league. So let's begin with the season preview, starting with a look at the AFC.

(*-denotes wild card)

AFC East: 1. Patriots 2. Dolphins 3. Jets 4. Bills

The Pats offense is the reason they'll win this division. Brady has too many weapons at his disposal and even with a mediocre defense, they should win 11 games. The Jets and Dolphins are very close and probably will finished tied. I just think that Chad Henne is a more dependable QB than Mark Sanchez, has the better WR in Brandon Marshall, get Ronnie Brown back for the Wildcat and won't have every team on the schedule gunning for them, like the Jets will. Ray Lewis' comments about the Jets today show what other teams will think throughout the year. The Bills will be the worst team in football, hopefully C.J. Spiller looks good and then they draft Jake Locker next season.

AFC North: 1. Steelers 2. Ravens* 3. Bengals 4. Browns

Dixon might be the key to this pick, but as long as Troy Polamalu can have a healthy season, the Steelers will be back in the playoffs. I also think Ben Roethlisberger will have a better year once he returns to football that most think. The Ravens should finish second as I think Joe Flacco will handle having a good offense positively. Baltimore's biggest issue is a defense without Ed Reed for the beginning of the year. Cincinnati gets buzz with Terrell Owens joining them, but ultimately, it's Carson Palmer that will keep them from winning. He hasn't been a top-QB since Kimo von Oelhoffen rolled over his leg in the 2005 playoffs. The Browns should be better than last year, but this division is too tough for them to be a legitimate sleeper.

AFC South: 1. Colts 2. Texans* 3. Titans 4. Jaguars

We all know the Colts will go as Peyton Manning goes. So mark them down for 13 wins and a bye. The Texans finally make the playoffs this year and finally give the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson combo more pub. The key; Neil Rackers playing good at kicker and I'm not kidding (Kris Brown's been worse than awful). The Titans play tough and have Chris Johnson, but that defense is in a little retooling mode and probably finish 8-8 again. This is the year the Jags get rid of Jack Del Rio and David Garrard. Another mediocre season and non-sellouts mean regime change will occur in Jacksonville.

AFC West: 1. Chiefs 2. Chargers 3. Raiders 4. Broncos

No, this isn't a typo, I have the Chiefs winning the weak AFC West. This is mainly an anti-San Diego pick as the losses from last year and the Vincent Jackson issue will hurt the team, plus too many years with Norv Turner has to lead to a missed playoff season. As for the Chiefs, having Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis in their natural environments as coordinators will help. Offensely, the Chiefs have talent in Jaamal Charles, Dexter McCluster and Dwayne Bowe around Matt Cassel and Eric Berry improves KC's defense on day one. I'd pick the Raiders except they're the Raiders and you can't trust them. Though, six or seven wins isn't out of the question. The Broncos will struggle early and Tim Tebow will get his chance to play.

1st Round: Ravens over Chiefs, Pats over Texans

Divisional Round: Ravens over Colts, Steelers over Pats

AFC Championship Game: Steelers over Ravens

It's Time I Become A Football Coach

(This image comes from the Houston Chronicle and AP)

I'm serious, I should be a football coach and this is coming from a guy who hasn't played Madden since being priced out of PS3 and XBox 360. I'm sure anyone playing Madden four hours a day would be better coaches than me, which really indicates how bad the coaching in the NFL has become and how bad the coaching always is in college football.


College football should just create co-coaches and get it over with. You would have the one who can recruit all the talent and practice with the team, while the other one can handle game management. I mean look at the travesty of a final drive Les Miles handled last week against Ole Miss. After lucking into a onside kick, LSU hit a WR screen to get into field goal range at the 32. Then, Miles being to call some bad plays, a couple of slow developing pass plays, then a foolish RB screen on 3rd and 19. Then, the ultimate sin by a coach was committed when he waited 15 seconds to call timeout with :09 on the clock. He failed to have his team ready should they make the 4th and 26, which they did. With :01 on the clock, either set up the field goal or throw for the end zone; LSU did neither. In college, I blame the coaches more than the players because the coaches need to know better and Les Miles last Saturday didn't.


However, watching coaches like Bob Stoops and Pete Carroll have shown me over the years that college football is easy as long as you can recruit. The NFL is supposed to be tougher to coach, you're supposed to have a clue of what's going on. Yet, there's a reason coaches change at least seven times in the offseason. Look at the following coaches: Wade Phillips, Norv Turner, Andy Reid, Marvin Lewis, Brad Childress. Each of these coaches head teams who would be in the playoffs, despite not being good coaches. Whether it's questionable challenges, playing not to lose, losing control of the team and just anything that makes you shake your head, each of these coaches fall into that category. And I haven't gone into the worst examples.


Let's begin with Eric Mangini, who I have called the Rich Kotite of this era (meaning a bad coach on a respectable team, who then goes to a worse team and makes them awful). He should have never been given another team this soon after the Jets meltdown, but the Browns felt like they needed to continue hiring failed Belichick assistants because of the outstanding performance Bill had when coaching the Browns. Two great moves by Mangini: going for the fake field goal pass at the end of the 1st half against the Lions, despite the Lions being ready, thus they get the first down and have to kick anyway. But that didn't matter, unlike the last play of the game. You know you're not coaching well when your team is the one team who commits a pass interference on a Hail Mary. He makes things worse by calling timeout before the untimed down. Normally, it's not awful, but Matt Stafford got hurt pretty bad on the previous play and Daunte Culpepper was going to take the last snap cold. Mangenius' timeout allowed Stafford to come back in, because obviously, you want the guy who's torched your defense for 400 yards to throw one more time over a backup QB who's erratic and is just as capable of throwing a 100-interception than he is a touchdown. What a moron.


Of course, the reason I'm even writing this was because of the Texans game Monday night. It started with a Tweet about the 3rd down play by Houston with :08 seconds left. This was before Kris Brown missed the game-tying field goal, giving the Titans the win. Now, the Titans clearly played for the field goal, because Jeff Fisher knew Rob Bironas knew he could consistently hit 50 yard kicks. If anyone knows Kris Brown, you know that he hooks every big kick left. The Texans still had a timeout, yet Gary Kubiak decides to fall on the ball. No, no and no. You have to try to get closer, because you can't depend on Brown making a 49 yard kick. As a matter of fact, if you life was on the line based on Brown making a big kick, you can start buying burial plots and coffins. Conversely, if Vegas put a spread on Brown hooking a kick left, it would come off the board because everyone knows he misses there. Thus, the Texans need to make the kick easier for Brown, since I can't say don't kick in any circumstance. Trust your quarterback, which Matt Schaub isn't to be confused with a Trent Edwards or a Jake Delhomme, and try for the first down to Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter or David Anderson, turning a 49 yarder into a 39 yarder and then it's all on Kris Brown. However, Kubiak didn't know his team and the Texans are now 5-5, on their way to another 8-8 season and Kubiak's last. Once again, another guy I can out-coach.


Here's my Thanksgiving Day picks and from me here at The Cycle, I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. Home team in CAPS.

DETROIT (+11.5) over Green Bay- Normally I would believe the Lions would fail to show up and get pasted, but I think they will play close in a rare sellout.
DALLAS (-13.5) over Oakland- Unlike the Lions, the Raiders won't show up in big D. Plus, the Cowboys can expect a huge game from Tony Romo, Mr. Thanksgiving and I consider that akin to Mr. May.
DENVER (+6) over Giants- Having a game in Denver three days after playing in New York will be difficult. Unless the Broncos player-only meeting failed and they continue self-destructing, I think it will be hard for the G-Men tonight.

NFL Preview Part III

If you read through Part I and Part II of my NFL preview, you're wondering why I never told you my Super Bowl pick. Well, I set the stage with things that could happen for all 32 teams. Now it's time for my predictions on the upcoming season. I gave away predictions, such as the Patriots and Chargers winning their divisions and the Lions getting a win this season. Here's 10 more (that actually will expand to more than that):


1. The Eagles won't make the playoffs. It seemed like once Michael Vick joined Philadelphia, they were instantly made the favorites in the NFC. However, as I said when he was signed, Vick won't make a huge impact on this team. He may have looked okay during the preseason, but the game is played at 80 percent in August. Once the season starts, everyone plays at 100 percent and I just don't believe you can just sit for two years and comeback like it was two days. Add to that, Donovan McNabb played every game last season for the first time since 2003, I can't see that happen again (not to mention Philly fans calling for Vick after every interception). Let's also remember that Brian Westbrook also misses about five games a season.


2. This year's MVP will be a defensive player. At least in this blog, in real life, no one will vote for a defensive player because they never do. As for me, unless the offensive player had a year like Tom Brady in '07, it can't be always better than a defensive player's year. I thought James Harrison should of been in the hunt for MVP last year. I know Ed Reed, Osi Umenyiora and DeMarcus Ware are all worthy of consideration in a given year. I will say that Ed Reed will be the MVP of the league this year as he gets 10 INT's and runs three of them for a touchdown. You're top offensive players with be Drew Brees and Knowshon Moreno as top rookie, while Aaron Curry will be top defensive rookie.


3. One of the eleven first year coaches will be fired. The NFL has increasingly become harder to maintain work because the object of winning is too prevalent in the state of the game. Seeing three offensive coordinators, including long-time coach Chan Gailey, lead me to think that some of these coaches who were just hired will certainly be fired. Now Tom Cable certainly could be fired, but he doesn't count because the Raiders are bizarro world. But, I definitely could see Eric Mangini let go, in fact, here it is. The Browns will finish 4-12, the players will cause a revolt and he will be gone. Of course, we will lose more coaches than the new ones.


4. The Brett Favre experiment will crash and burn and Brad Childress will be the fall guy. You all knew that I would go out in this point of view, but I just don't see Brett Favre only handing the ball to Adrian Peterson and throw safe passes. He's a gunslinger and the only way for a gunslinger to stop slinging guns is to shoot him. While that works in Westerns, in football, they just don't get signed to $12 million contracts after a while. Sure the Vikings can start 4-1, but their stretch of Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and at Green Bay will do them in and they won't recreate the early momentum. Childress will be fired as a result and he will have company; Dick Jauron will finally be let go after a failed season with TO, same for Wade Phillips when the Cowboys finished last in the NFC East (albeit at 7-9).


5. The most disappointing team this year will be the Falcons. I know the offense can be good, but it won't be and the lack of defense and harder schedule against NFC and AFC Easts will lead to another year where Atlanta won't have two winning seasons in a row. They will be joined by the Panthers who will be 7-9 and that will end the Jake Delhomme era. It actually could be considered a successful one that almost beat the Pats in the Super Bowl, but he has lived off that Super Bowl loss for way too long. As for the AFC, the most disappointing team will be the Titans. I know you saw them play well tonight, but I just can't believe Kerry Collins is capable of two good seasons in a row; trust this Giant fan, I know. Finally, the Super Bowl curse continues, the Cardinals will finish 6-10, Kurt Warner gets hurt and miss the playoffs.


6. Seattle will just miss the playoffs and fail in their sleeper status this year. I think too many people are on their bandwagon. I just think they finish 9-7 and lose out on a playoff berth. Now if the Seahawks don't make the playoffs, the sleeper of the year is the San Francisco 49ers. I believe in Mike Singletary more than Jim Mora Jr. and even though Michael Crabtree not being there hurts, I think Frank Gore plays great and they stop enough on defense to also go 9-7 and win a tiebreaker.


7. Houston will be the AFC sleeper, though they really aren't one. This is a team that is getting picked by people who know that 5+ teams are new to the playoffs each year. I just love that offense and Mario Williams will be a beast (another player who could win my MVP). It's also a winnable schedule with games against Miami, the Jets, Buffalo, Cincy, St. Louis, Arizona, Oakland and I'm sure they can win at least 4 more. They join the Ravens as the AFC Wild Cards as the Chargers, Colts, Steelers and Pats win divisions again.


8. Washington and New Orleans also make the playoffs. The Saints become the latest team in the NFC South to go from the cellar to the postseason as the division champ, while the Redskins surprisingly carry their defense in the playoffs like in the past few years. They will be joined by obviously the Niners, Bears as the wild card and Packers and Giants as division winners.


9. This season will continue as The Tyson Zone of sports seasons. Simmons is right, the stories in the league will only get crazier; I won't be surprised to hear that a player smoked crack an hour before a game, like in Playmakers. Two serious issues facing the league, the drop in attendance this year coming up and the potential lockout. Somehow, the experience of watching a game live has to get better, because I'm better off watching at home or a friends place with NFL Sunday Ticket. Pricing has to go down so the real fans can watch the game and effect it with crowd noise. As for the lockout, do everything in your power Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith to avoid it. Problem is the owners don't know what they want, which almost derailed things in 2006. I hope sports fans are prepared because 2011 is shaping to be a year which both the NFL and NBA could have a work stoppage and MLB and the NHL have to have contracts expire around that time as well.


10. Here's the final picks: AFC playoffs have Pittsburgh beating the Texans and Baltimore beating Indy in Round 1. The Chargers beat the Colts while the Steelers upset the Patriots in Round 2. San Diego knocks off the defending champs in the AFC Championship game. The NFC starts with the Bears beating the Niners, while the Saints take care of the Redskins. The Packers beat Chicago in Round 2 as the Giants beat the Saints in the final game at Giants Stadium. The Pack get their revenge on the Giants and head to the Super Bowl. Our winner, Green Bay sticking it to Favre as they beat the Chargers. Regardless of who goes to the Super Bowl, this one will be not be thought of as a great one immediately following the game.

NFL Preview Part I

Tis the season to be jolly, now the NFL is officially back. And with that, it's time for all of us in the mainstream media and blogosphere to write our predictions. Here at The Cycle, this will be the start of a three-part preview over the next 3 days, starting with an AFC overview, followed by the NFC and finally, I will make 10 fearless predictions and have my weekly picks that will be a staple every week. Will these predictions be right? Probably not, according to Down Goes Brown. Will I end up getting mocked when the season's over like these guys? Almost a certain. So why bother? Because that's the price of fame, putting yourself out there, like A-Rod. And yes, I know I'm the exact opposite of fame. Anyway, let's begin:


AFC East- This was arguably the toughest division last year for two reasons; the AFC West and the NFC West. Miami, New England, the Jets and Buffalo got to fatten up on both divisions. I'm sure you're curious why the Jets are crossed out; ask Denver, Oakland, San Francisco and Seattle why. Let's not fool ourselves here, the Pats have Tom Brady again and will win this division, so I won't make you wait two days on the easiest slam dunk since Lew Alcindor had them outlawed in the 60s. This offense still is very strong and Brady-to-Moss will torch D's again, followed by the sneaky Brady-to-Welker passes. The defense for the Pats isn't too bad with Derrick Burgess coming on board, though, the Seymour trade will lead to some struggles. However, any struggles on defense will be masked by the offense.


Miami is one of the top candidates of the year-after hangover (plenty more to follow) as the schedule gets harder and the wildcat won't fool anyone this year. Actually, this should be thought of as a transition year as Chad Pennington never fares well in an odd year, giving Chad Henne or Pat White the opportunity to lead the team in 2010. Remember, the schedule was very easy a year ago, including a game in Toronto. Now, they have the Bills in Buffalo and the AFC and NFC South teams to play, much harder.


Buffalo and the Jets should struggle this year as facing the likes of New Orleans and Indy won't help these teams at all. The Bills have no offensive line, especially with the loss of Jason Peters to Philly. They made the splashy move get Terrell Owens, mainly because the Bills have not mattered since the Music City Miracle murdered the franchise Francisco Cabrera-style. In five weeks, the splash will be gone once the Bills realize that Owens isn't a game-changing receiver anymore and that Trent Edwards won't have a chance to get Owens the ball. Even his fireworks will only be like lighting a cigarette instead of blowing up a building as past ones have been. Also hurting the Bills, a down year I believe in store for Marshawn Lynch and a young defense that needs to grow. It also doesn't help that the Bills were one of the teams to fire their offensive coordinator last week.


Defense is what is going to be good for the Jets as Rex Ryan takes his Baltimore mentality, along with Bart Scott and Jim Leonhart, and will impose that and his larger-than-life personality in New York. Their problem is that the offense will struggle due to Mark Sanchez's growing pains. It doesn't help that there's no big-play receiver for him to hookup with and an aging runner in Thomas Jones. I do believe the Jets will end up being a much better second half team once Sanchez gains experience.


AFC North- Of all the divisions, it seems like all of the teams involved should be where they were last year; Steelers in first, followed by the Ravens, Bengals and Browns. For a moment during the preseason, Pittsburgh looked to be in trouble when Ben Roethlisberger hurt his Achilles, but it seems like he won't miss anytime. The Steelers also return almost everyone from the Super Bowl team last year, meaning teams will again fear playing against the likes of Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.


Baltimore's defense, despite all sorts of losses from coordinators to linebackers, will still be among the elite, mainly because Ed Reed still plays football. The biggest question is Joe Flacco and if he will have a sophomore slump and needs Derrick Mason to play as well as he did last year, despite his brief retirement. I do, however, see a big year out of Ray Rice who will end up heading the three-headed monster backfield with Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain. And even with an aging Ray Lewis, him staying in Baltimore is like having a coach on the field.


Rice's teammate from Rutgers Brian Leonard has found a home in Cincinnati as we will see tomorrow on the last episode of Hard Knocks. This year's season will be remembered for the drive-by, assassin style roster cuttings by the Bengals, Andre Smith training shirtless and letting his man boobs out for America to cringe while watching and Tank Johnson doing household chores and the comedy that is caused by this. Actually, I don't think this team is going to be too bad; they have a good defense which is better with Rey Maualuga at linebacker and even Roy Williams at safety doesn't hurt them. This season comes down to Carson Palmer's health; if he plays, the Bengals could surprise, if not, they will be just as bad as a year ago, with another year Chad Ochocinco is older, another year crazier.


While Cincy tries to win with longtime coach Marvin Lewis, the Browns have hitched their star back to the Belichick tree. I don't get why the Browns keep picking up Belichick rejects; Bill did an awful job before the old Browns moved to Baltimore and Romeo Crennel ended his run as coach nicknamed Cromeo, looking just like Art Shell when he returned to the Raiders. Now, they try to win with Eric Mangini, who left after the debacle with the Jets. Doesn't a move like this remind anyone of Rich Kotite, who coached the Eagles in 1994, choked their season, then went to the Jets. You know what each of those teams have in common, snakebite history. This is further compounded by that Cleveland has no starting quarterback, where even Belichick thinks Mangini is going too far. The defense is still bad, no running game and a number one receiver who drops more than TO in Braylon Edwards (and yes Braylon, I haven't forgiven you for murdering my fantasy season last year, you better suck again).


AFC South- This division is expected to be the best in the AFC as it has been for the past four years. You can make a case for each team in the division making the playoffs (yes, even Jacksonville, which should thrill all 100 of their fans). The favorite as usual is the Colts and Peyton Manning, despite losing Tony Dungy to retirement. This Indy defense has the chance to be the best in the Manning Era (except for the four, and only four games they played D in the run to Super Bowl XLI), with a strong pass rush and a good secondary, as long as Bob Sanders is in the lineup. The real questions happen to be on offense, can Anthony Gonzalez finally become the number two behind Reggie Wayne and can Joe Addai and Donald Brown give the Colts a solid running game.


Last year's champs, the Titans, probably won't be as good as a year ago, but 13-3 would be worse for them, so the playoffs are certainly are very possible. How they recover from losing defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and DT Albert Haynesworth is their biggest question. This defense is still good, but if they don't play as well as last year, they could miss the playoffs. Also, does Kerry Collins play as well as he did last year? If the Titans win, it will be because of Chris Johnson's development, LenDale "No Patron" White with an epic contract year and great coaching from Jeff Fisher, the NFL's Jerry Sloan.


If there's a team that most of the so-called experts (you can't be experts if you pick 9 or 10 teams to return to the playoffs, I'm looking at you ESPN) are picking to be in the playoffs other than New England, it's the Texans. After last year's second half run, Houston is primed to make the playoffs for the first time ever. It all rests on the health of Matt Schaub, because if he's injured, they stay go nowhere. No way do I believe Sexy Rexy or Dan "I Run Into My Endzone" Orlovsky can get the job done, not with the Colts and Titans to deal with. However, if Andre Johnson can prove to play healthy for a full season, so could Schaub. He's lucky that Steve Slaton is a beast and Andre Johnson is a top-3 receiver in this league. As for defense, Mario Williams will end the year with 15+ sacks and make an average defense look good.


Jacksonville's projections run the spectrum of very bad and playoff sleeper. One thing we can agree on, Maurice Jones-Drew is good. They need a big year from MJD if they have any chance to win, though a big year from him might not help at all. David Garrard, if anything, is efficient at QB and though Torry Holt is old, he's still reliable to have at WR on a team devoid of great receivers. The defense is the great unknown as they will make or break this team. They play each their division foes in three of the first four games; how they fare will make or break their season. Of course, no one in the Jacksonville area will know football is being played until Florida-Georgia since each game will be blacked out, since the Jaguars can get people to buy tickets.


AFC West- This division seems like it's the Chargers to lose. Well, it is; there is absolutely no reason for San Diego to lose this division, short of a swine flu outbreak. The offense will be better than last year because I believe LaDainian Tomlinson will have a comeback year, making this offense lethal. Add in Phil Rivers passing, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson catching and Darren Sproles playing the role of Leon Washington, only better, they could score around 500 points this year. Now I was prepared to say the Chargers defense would be very good this year; now with the Merriman-Tequila incident combine the worlds of sports, reality and Twitter. As long as Shawne isn't suspended during the season, it won't hurt the defense and 11-5 or better is almost certain.


So now, who will finish second? Denver and Kansas City seem like the logical candidates, since you can't use logic and the Oakland Raiders in the same sentence, except when you say you can't and only then. The Broncos have had quite the Raider-like offseason as they fired Mike Shanahan, hired Josh McDaniels, failed to get Matt Cassel, annoyed Jay Cutler and had to trade him 50 cents on the dollar. Now they have a huge issue with Brandon Marshall, he's a jerk. It's one thing to want a new contract, but to act like a petulant little kid in practice means you should be blackballed in this league. All Denver needs is to trade him, then use his enormous talent and dominate, not even Vince Carter mailed his way out of Toronto as bad as that. Otherwise, I would actually pick the Broncos as a sleeper, because for all of what Josh McDaniels did to cause this, even Cutler said he was a good coach, plus a little defense would make the Broncos a .500 team.


The Chiefs are on that short list of teams who if they win, it's out of nowhere. This year, that group include: KC, Oakland, St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincy, San Fran and Buffalo. Every year one of those teams no one likes will win; last year Atlanta and Miami, in '07, Tampa Bay, in '06, New Orleans (hence no NFC South team is on this list). I would of picked Kansas City, since they have Matt Cassel at QB, Todd Haley is a major upgrade over Herm Edwards, and Scott Pioli is the GM. However, they traded away Tony Gonzalez and that's a red flag. They also fired Chan Gailey before the season, major red flag (see Bills, Buffalo). They will win at least four more games than a year ago, but that's still a 6-10 team in this league.


Last but not least, the Raiders. Here's the Raiders offseason, drafted an overrated Darius Heywood-Bey over the better receiver in Michael Crabtree (I have more for him in the next post), sign Jeff Garcia, then cut him fearing he could ruin JaMarcus Russell, have their coach accused of punching an assistant and basically traded Derrick Burgess and a 1st round pick to the Pats for a 3rd and a 5th rounder and an aging Richard Seymour, who still hasn't reported to the team as of Wednesday. Everyone has chimed in this last trade, from comparing him to the 10th man in a fantasy league who knows nothing about football (Oakland is the only team to draft kicker and punter in the 1st round of a draft unless they did more than kick) to saying that the NFL should take away Al Davis' right to trade. Need I say more.


Part II should be out with NFC overview tomorrow afternoon, with my Thursday game pick, Friday most likely will be when my final predictions are posted and I promise the Thursday game won't influence it.

How to End a Title Drought?

The Cleveland Cavaliers were trailing 3-1 in their series with the Orlando Magic entering tonight's game in need of three straight wins. They are currently the city of Cleveland's best chance to win a championship for the first time since 1964 when the Jim Brown-led Browns won the NFL Championship, before the Super Bowl-era.


This has been probably the most heartbreaking drought with events like Red Right 88, The Drive, The Fumble, The Shot, and The Error. Two years ago, the Cavs were in the NBA Finals and were promptly swept by the Spurs, while the Indians led the Red Sox 3-1 in the ALCS and lost the last three games, including Game 7 when Kenny Lofton was held up by third base Joel Skinner when he would of scored the tying run in the 7th inning. The Red Sox went on to win 11-2 as they scored eight runs in the last two innings and the drought continued. This also includes the Indians forty years missing the playoffs in a row until 1995, the reign of terror by Ted Septien in the early 1980s almost ending the Cavs franchise, the failure of the NHL's Cleveland Barons, the last major sports team to cease operations and the 1995 Browns move to Baltimore by Art Modell.


So with all that baggage to work with, how is it possible for the years of losing to end? The fact is that years of losing create the thought of "curse" in the minds of the team/cities fans psyche. There is always the feeling that the other shoe is about to drop. You can see it anytime a nervous energy takes over a stadium/arena and the team you root for is suffocated by this. It happened to both the Mets and the Cubs last season; same goes for the Vikings in the playoffs. Unfortunately, it seems like that conventional ways to win never work, there needs to be a moment where a team is seemingly "destined" to win.


Most of the recent "curses" that have been foiled had a moment where a collective fan base no longer thinks the worst will happen. It could occur anytime in the playoffs, and usually comes at the lowest point in the season. The best example of this theory is the Boston Red Sox; they reached their low point after Game 3 in the 2004 ALCS against the N.Y. Yankees when they were down 3-0. As any Bill Simmons reader knows, the Dave Roberts steal is considered that turning point for the Red Sox, mainly because the next play, Bill Mueller knocked Roberts in with a single off Mariano Rivera. After that, and a couple of game-winners by David Ortiz, the Red Sox steamrolled their way to breaking the Curse of the Bambino.


A better example on a personal level was the 1994 N.Y. Rangers when Mark Messier guaranteed victory in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference Final series with the N.J. Devils. They trailed the series 3-2 and the game 2-0 when Messier assisted on a goal, then scored a hat trick and the Rangers won 4-2. Unlike the Red Sox, the Rangers didn't steamroll their way to the Cup and actually gave Rangers plenty of reasons to believe it wasn't coming. But, they fought through a late-tying goal by the Devils in Game 7 followed by Stephane Matteau's OT winner and the great Howie Rose call put the Rangers in the Stanley Cup Finals. Then, the Rangers took a 3-1 series lead, lost the next two games and held off a final charge by the Canucks to win the Stanley Cup after 54 years.


Those aren't the only droughts that needed the perception of a team of destiny for it to be broken. The Chicago White Sox stole Game 2 of the ALCS against the Angels after a controversial when the umpire said Josh Paul dropped a third strike with two outs to A.J. Pierzynski when he actually just threw it back. Joe Crede would win the game on the next at-bat and the White Sox swept their way to the World Series, their first since 1917. The Phillies ended the 25 year Philadelphia championship drought and their moment of destiny was a 4-run 8th inning in Game 4 of the NLCS against the Dodgers when Shane Victorino and Matt Stairs hit two 2-run HR's that turned a 5-3 deficit to a 7-5 win. They also had a bases-loaded infield single in Game 3 of the World Series to further the team of destiny role. The Detroit Red Wings ended a 42 year Cup drought in 1997, plus being labeled chokers for recent flameouts in the playoffs. In Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, Steve Yzerman scored on a 60-ft shot and the Flyers were done in four games.


The Cavs ended up winning the game to make the series 3 games to 2 in favor of the Magic. LeBron had a part in 32 straight points but that's in my eyes isn't a turning point that makes the Cavs a team of destiny, which means something needs to happen in Game 6 that changes the fortune of this team, whether it's another game-winner from LeBron, a great block or even LeBron announcing he will stay in Cleveland tomorrow. Whatever it is, there needs to be a sign that this drought will end very soon if the Cavs are going to win this championship, or this season will be known forever in Cleveland as The Letdown (unfortunately I can't come up with a better name than that).