Today is the big day as the Packers and the Steelers finally do battle. It feels like forever since both teams won their way to the Super Bowl, plus while the hype of the Super Bowl is there because it's Green Bay and Pittsburgh, there hasn't been much created in terms of these two teams, aside from Ben Roethlisberger's redemption. Quick question, what has taken place in the past two weeks that made you remember that the Packers are in the Super Bowl? Couldn't think of anything, did you, besides maybe Troy Polamalu over Clay Matthews for the Defensive Player of the Year.
Despite that, let's make sense of this game, which unlike Fox who will take four hours before the game to make sense of it, I'll just use about 10 minutes of your time. Which is plenty for you to watch Caps/Pens, Celtics/Magic and to go to or set up your own party for tonight. Here are the five things to look for as you watch this game, and none of those five include commercials or the Black Eyed Peas (sorry, no alternative halftime viewing recommendations by me, though I know people love the Puppy Bowl).
1. The Packers defense not only plays like the Steelers defense, they are actually better. The reason; because the Packers have Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, the best trio of CB's in the NFL. Add Nick Collins and it will be hard for Big Ben to throw against Green Bay. And that's not including Matthews, B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins, who can give Roethlisberger as much trouble as James Harrison, James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons can give Aaron Rodgers.
2. However, if Troy Polamalu is healthy and active, that advantage swing right back in the Steelers favor. I've used this space to show my praise for Polamalu, hell, he was my Defensive Player of the Year strictly because his presence makes the Steelers better. He hasn't played well through his injury, but the Steelers have been winning despite this because the Ravens and Jets both have inferior offenses and the games were played in Pittsburgh. Switch to a game with a great offense like the Packers with two weeks to study the Steelers defense on a neutral site and indoors, which the Packers play better, and Polamalu must be more than just on the field. If he is the game changer that you watched against the Ravens in Baltimore or the Cincinnati game, the Steelers will stop Rodgers from having another game like against Atlanta.
3. The kicking game swings the special teams advantage to the Packers. Tim Masthay had a great game against the Bears, and he needed to considering they have Devin Hester returning punts. Mason Crosby is one of the top kickers in football and he gets to play indoors. Shawn Suisham hasn't been bad, and though I'd worry about him outdoors, indoors he should be fine. However, Jeremy Kapinos is an injury replacement and isn't that good. Meaning the Steelers will need to set up punts from around midfield to avoid short Green Bay possessions.
4. Until proven otherwise, the Steelers are the better running team. James Starks has been great for the Packers this postseason, and if he plays well in the Super Bowl, this possibly be a performance like Timmy Smith (hopefully it translates into future seasons). However, the Steelers have a great run defense (despite no Aaron Smith) with the LB's mentioned earlier and LaMarr Woodley, plus Casey Hampton in the middle and Brett Keisel at DE. As for the Steelers, Rashad Mendenhall ran wild against the Jets two weeks ago, but the Packers are better in the front seven than the Jets because of Matthews and Raji. Steelers will also miss Maurkice Pouncey, but they can run right behind Flozell Adams, yes, that Flozell Adams, the Human Penalty Flag. So, yes, the Steelers can run, but if the Packers defense plays well, it won't be a great advantage.
5. The QB matchup is a wash. The reason, Big Ben's experience. Rodgers has the advantage in terms of dealing with the weaker secondary and gets to play indoors. However, if the Steelers get pressure on Rodgers, that advantage is taken away. Meanwhile, while the secondary will be tough for Roethlisberger, he still has Heath Miller to go to as a fallback look. Green Bay, while I think have the better WR's, are about even when you include the TE's (mainly because of no Jermichael Finley). The question is, what do you believe in more, Big Ben's 10-2 playoff record and two titles or this being the year Aaron Rodgers ascends to the top of the list of best QB's in football, like Drew Brees last year.
Prediction: I love Aaron Rodgers indoors, he seems to have control of the offense and their receivers benefit from a fast track. Meanwhile, I think Big Ben will have trouble against the Packers corners, particularly Charles Woodson, who will right things after losing in the Super Bowl as a Raider back in 2003. The Packers will 34-27 and the score is closer because the Steelers get a late TD to make it only 7. Otherwise, enjoy the Super Bowl.
Showing posts with label Ben Roethlisberger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ben Roethlisberger. Show all posts
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Conference Championship Sunday
Today is one of the five best days of sport in America and we look forward to two conference championship games that should epitomize what we consider as "real" football; defense and cold weather. All four teams play good defense and both games are being played in temperatures below 20 degrees. The interesting thing about today's games is that we expect them to be close. If you see the prior meetings, all the games were down to the wire. So does everything hold to form today?
Let's start with Green Bay and Chicago, who have their rubber match. The case for Chicago winning is this: Cold day and a tough field can slow down the Packers offense and Jay Cutler at his best. Here's the weird thing about today's games, Jay Cutler is the one QB who I'm afraid can either rise or sink his team. If he comes out like last week and throws a touchdown or two, I think it will get the Bears defense to play better. If he comes out flat, the Packers will runaway with this one like they did against the Falcons (though, I figure a runaway today would be 20-3). The other thing interesting, even though the Packers are the better offensive team, I happen to think a higher scoring game favors the Bears, unless the Packers are doing all the scoring. Otherwise, I still say that while the Bears have a good defense, if you block Julius Peppers, you can beat them. The Packers have the better all around defense and Clay Matthews, is tougher to stop. Add that the Packers have found a running back in James Starks who can free up Aaron Rodgers to have a little mystery in the plays and don't see how the Bears win. I have the Packers winning 24-14.
Onto the Jets and Steelers who it seems like a toss up. The Jets won the earlier meeting, but the Steelers didn't have Troy Polamalu. And if Jason Taylor gets blocked late in the 4th quarter, that game is likely tied and would have gone to OT. The two things the Jets must do: score first like the last time and avoid turnovers in their own side of the field. You don't want to give Ben Roethlisberger a short field, its a guaranteed score, just ask Baltimore. For Pittsburgh, their line play, particularly from the tackles will be key. If they give Roethlisberger time, he'll find success, whether the Jets cover the Steelers WR's well or not. So the defensive key for the Jets is to get to Ben quickly, don't count on getting a lot of coverage sacks. Offensively for the Jets, balance is necessary, as well as giving Mark Sanchez some easy passes to gain a rhythm. The interesting thing about the Jets today is that a) they don't have revenge on their minds and haven't said much, unlike last week and b) also unlike last week and the week prior, they aren't facing a particularly proficient offense today, so the gameplan will be more interesting as the Jets probably would go about their game the way they normally would.
So who wins? Here's what I believe: The Steelers always seems to force a turnover, and that turnover proves huge. I also believe the Steelers will run the ball better than the Jets, or at the very least, the threat of the run will open up more passing for Ben. You sense where I'm going, I have Pittsburgh outlasting the Jets 20-17, which for picks purposes means I'm taking the Jets +4. How's that for a hedge?
Let's start with Green Bay and Chicago, who have their rubber match. The case for Chicago winning is this: Cold day and a tough field can slow down the Packers offense and Jay Cutler at his best. Here's the weird thing about today's games, Jay Cutler is the one QB who I'm afraid can either rise or sink his team. If he comes out like last week and throws a touchdown or two, I think it will get the Bears defense to play better. If he comes out flat, the Packers will runaway with this one like they did against the Falcons (though, I figure a runaway today would be 20-3). The other thing interesting, even though the Packers are the better offensive team, I happen to think a higher scoring game favors the Bears, unless the Packers are doing all the scoring. Otherwise, I still say that while the Bears have a good defense, if you block Julius Peppers, you can beat them. The Packers have the better all around defense and Clay Matthews, is tougher to stop. Add that the Packers have found a running back in James Starks who can free up Aaron Rodgers to have a little mystery in the plays and don't see how the Bears win. I have the Packers winning 24-14.
Onto the Jets and Steelers who it seems like a toss up. The Jets won the earlier meeting, but the Steelers didn't have Troy Polamalu. And if Jason Taylor gets blocked late in the 4th quarter, that game is likely tied and would have gone to OT. The two things the Jets must do: score first like the last time and avoid turnovers in their own side of the field. You don't want to give Ben Roethlisberger a short field, its a guaranteed score, just ask Baltimore. For Pittsburgh, their line play, particularly from the tackles will be key. If they give Roethlisberger time, he'll find success, whether the Jets cover the Steelers WR's well or not. So the defensive key for the Jets is to get to Ben quickly, don't count on getting a lot of coverage sacks. Offensively for the Jets, balance is necessary, as well as giving Mark Sanchez some easy passes to gain a rhythm. The interesting thing about the Jets today is that a) they don't have revenge on their minds and haven't said much, unlike last week and b) also unlike last week and the week prior, they aren't facing a particularly proficient offense today, so the gameplan will be more interesting as the Jets probably would go about their game the way they normally would.
So who wins? Here's what I believe: The Steelers always seems to force a turnover, and that turnover proves huge. I also believe the Steelers will run the ball better than the Jets, or at the very least, the threat of the run will open up more passing for Ben. You sense where I'm going, I have Pittsburgh outlasting the Jets 20-17, which for picks purposes means I'm taking the Jets +4. How's that for a hedge?
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