Wild Card Thoughts

Since the nature of the MLB wild card is one and done, a normal preview picking who wins doesn't do the same justice as picking teams to win a series. In lieu of stacking teams together, I figured that I would give some thoughts about the four teams in question today and of this new format itself.

-I think that the second wild card works in a sense that it allows for playoff expansion without a massive drop in quality. It also puts a division title as something that's to be desired, instead of something one shrugs their shoulder whether they win or not. Sooner or later, there will have to be an extension to the Wild Card Game into a series (I'd go with a best of 3) in order to avoid basically one pitcher being hot or cold as the difference between winning and losing. It also gives division winners a week off, though there are pros and cons in this event (Pro: Rotations would be set no matter who pitches game 162; Con: hot teams wait around for a week and begin cooling off). Let's see the games first before making any tweaks, though.

-If there's any team who would deserve a better fate if they lose today, it's clearly the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta, for the most part, remained the top NL Wild Card team and easily earned their playoff spot. Even though the Cardinals weren't that much worse than Atlanta, it's enough so that the Braves would be a major loser, since last year a finish like this for the Braves put them against the Brewers.

-That's the second major thing with the Braves tonight; last year, they collapsed and lost out to the Cardinals on the season's last day. This year, they avoided collapse, but a loss to the Redbirds again here would be just as bad. Actually, it would be worse. Why?

-This would be the final game for Chipper Jones if the Braves lose. Even if you don't care to see the Braves win, I'd hope you like me hope that it's a series that defeats them and retires Chipper and not just one game. 

-There's a flip side to that argument: The Cardinals, because of the second wild card, are in a position to defend their title. So why it's not fair for the Braves to easily make the playoffs and have that position threatened because of one game, the same goes for St. Louis, who should get to be beaten over the course of a series to lose in their defense.

-We must look at the starting pitcher matchup and the Braves obviously put Kris Medlen on the mound. He's been probably the best pitcher in baseball since August. As a starter this year (which again, is basically August), Medlen went 9-0 with a 0.97 ERA, and a 0.80 WHIP. He had a 9.0 K/9 rate and a 2.22 FIP. However, his opponent, Kyle Lohse, just finished the best season in his career. His 143 K's, 3.51 FIP and 3.6 WAR aren't the most impressive number, but they are career highs for him, along with a 2.86 ERA. It would be tough for the Cardinals to score a lot considering Medlen and the Braves bullpen which features Craig Kimbrel to close. They'll need Lohse to pitch well and hold off a Braves lineup that won't have Brian McCann (yes, I know far too well that McCann didn't have the best of years in 2012, but having your starting catcher play is more than just important for hitting). I'm thinking the Braves win today and get the Nationals who are waiting.

-Finally, we get to the AL Wild Card, which incidentally would be a one game playoff in any prior year, between the Rangers and the Orioles. Unlike the arguments for the Braves and the Cards, I think it's absolutely fair for these two teams to play one game for the wild card. Both teams are tied (as I mentioned at the top) and the arc of the seasons for both make the wild card a natural destination. The Orioles matter for the first time since 1997 and even if they had fallen short; this season is still a success. Meanwhile, the Rangers flat out played mediocre throughout the second half, allowing the A's to catch them for the division and so this is their fate; a one and done game at home.

-While the Braves and Cards have their aces pitching today, the Rangers and Orioles don't really have an ace. Yu Darvish and Joe Saunders square off, but neither guy would be the Game 1 starter for any other playoff team. Bullpen play will more than likely play a significant role in who wins, along with which lineup can outslug the other.

-All things being equal, you'd want the Rangers lineup among almost every team's in the playoffs (I'll put the Yankees lineup ahead, but it's not a major difference). From Baltimore, I'd want Adam Jones, Chris Davis and hot Mark Reynolds. Probably want Matt Wieters since I'll take his hitting from the catcher spot. Otherwise, this team has a lot of young players and journeymen who somehow put it together this year. 

-I don't think it matters to Washington who they play among Atlanta and St. Louis (they should be thrilled to have postseason baseball for the first time since Prohibition was still law of the land). If I'm the Yankees, I'd probably take my chances with Baltimore than Texas, in case the Rangers finally realize that they have Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, etc., and begin mashing the ball again. 

-I do think the lineup of Texas and a day off to accept this fate of a Wild Card game (not to mention playing at home) will ultimately give the Rangers the edge and a cracker of a ALDS with the Yankees would follow (sorry for using a word in cracker that's used to describe an outstanding English football match, but it sounds right to me). 

Worst. Fans. Ever.

This video comes courtesy of Jimmy Traina's Twitter page. It's the top of the 8th inning of the Yankees-Rangers game in Arlington and we see a little kid crying. My first thought is the kid is hurt from a foul ball or something. Instead, we see something worse as he has the ball STOLEN from him. That's right. Just watch.

These two people are what I call the ultimate dickhead sports fan. I can't believe a little kid who's balling his eyes out can be ignored unintentionally, so they just didn't care. They probably didn't know the Rangers existed in the Dallas-Fort Worth area until 2010. There was a happy ending for the kid as he ended up getting a ball from someone in the Rangers bullpen, according to the YES telecast. However, since those two didn't give him the ball, they have to pay.

My punishment: they will always have the proverbial foul ball taken away from them for the rest of their lives. If they find a parking spot, I want someone to steal it. If they're in line at the grocery store, I hope the clerk closes his/her register when it's their turn. If they are in line for a movie, I hope the movie they want to see gets sold out. Anything to make the rest of their lives inconvenient. All I can think of George Constanza yelling "you know, we're living in a SOCIETY". Someone tell those two that.

Pujols to the Angels

And the hammer in the baseball Winter Meetings has just occurred; Albert Pujols signs with the Angels, who came out of nowhere to sign him, beating the Cardinals and the Marlins to the punch. The deal; 10 years in some amount between $250-260 million. Now the Angels have signed C.J. Wilson to 5 years/$75 million and have clearly stated that they are all in. Remember, last year's Angels couldn't hit well, but had a strong rotation in Dan Haren, Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana. Well, now the Angels add Wilson to that rotation, while making the lineup infinitely better with Pujols in the middle of the lineup.


Are they better than the Rangers? I say slightly because of the pitching advantage and that the Rangers haven't finished in their dealings for the offseason. I'm certain the Rangers will add a starter, and if they do, they still have the better lineup and a slightly better bullpen (even with Neftali Feliz and Jose Ogando starting).


How about the Cardinals? Where do they go from here? Well they get financial flexibility in the future and now can start Allen Craig in the outfield while moving Lance Berkman to 1B. Also, now they have plenty of cash so they could look to upgrade CF (Carlos Beltran, perhaps), SS or 2B. I don't think Prince Fielder just moves in there because it makes sense to have Berkman at first. One thing is clear, it was an end to an era when Tony La Russa retired; now Pujols joins him in an exit from St. Louis. I guess for that reason, I'm glad they won the series over the Rangers. Of course, in the race for the 2012 World Series, the Angels have now taken two very important pieces from the participants.


Today's a day for the Angels. We'll worry about if the Angels overpaid for these guys in the future. They probably did; of course, it's still not as bad as taking on Vernon Wells contract. I still figure the first 3 years as to determine whether the Angels win on these deals. And the lack of New York-style pressure will allow Pujols/Wilson to avoid early slumping, in my opinion. Next move: where does Prince Fielder go and is there a trade left to be made to swing the balance of power.

Meanwhile, there's NFL tonight. My pick: PITTSBURGH (-14.5) over Cleveland.

Truly A Fall Classic

It's been nine years since the last time the World Series went to a seventh game. That was the largely forgettable Giants-Angels World Series with the exception of J.T. Snow saving Dusty Baker's son's life and the epic choke job the Giants pulled in Game 6, allowing the Angels to rally and win. Since then, only twice has the Fall Classic even reached six games (both involving the Yankees). The series the AL team won usually had been sweeps, the NL winning ones were finished in 5 games.


This year, however, it's been trememdous. The Rangers and Cardinals have been thrilling for baseball fans. It's had a little bit of everything; great pitching, clutch hitting, historic performances, and the overmanaging display by both Tony La Russa and Ron Washington which you can expect to show up in Joe Girardi's binder for next season. Especially after the bizarre performance by La Russa last night. It's been 18 hours since the last out, and my head still hurts on all of Tony La Russa's moves in this game. And the shame is that it overshadows the exploits of Ron Washington, who's completely afraid to allow Albert Pujols to ever swing a bat. However, his strategy is working, so he can keep shimmying on now to a win away from the World Series (insert George W. Bush "Mission Accomplished" joke here).


Even with the 3-2 lead for Texas, I'm still uncertain who's winning this series as the Cardinals have the last two games at home. This is outstanding thing for baseball who should finally get the pay off with bigger ratings on Wednesday and hopefully Thursday with a Game 7. But even if it doesn't, it still won't ruin how entertaining a series we are experiencing. As a baseball fan who's become tired of one-sided World Series (not to mention early round playoff series as well in recent years), the possibly that a Game 7 could happen has me very excited.

Some other random World Series thoughts:

-Matt Napoli is your leader for Series MVP. It's clear after the crushed HR in Game 4, then the go-ahead double last night. The Cards don't have a clear leader; despite Pujols' 3 HR game on Game 3, he has no hits in any other game. I'm sure an MVP will present himself if the Cards do rally in the two home games.

-Derek Holland probably won't get to pitch again this series, meaning he won't win the Series MVP despite his great Game 4 performance. Doesn't matter; he wins the MVP in life after his performance in Game 5 as part of the Fox broadcast.

-Matt Holliday isn't going to win Series MVP. Looks like I got that one wrong from my preview post.

-Despite all the craziness that happened with La Russa and the controversy involving who was suppposed to pitch in the 8th, this is all avoided if David Murphy's grounder doesn't hit off Mike Rzepczynski. That's at least an out (maybe even a double play) and allows the Cards to pitch around Napoli and have Rzepczynski face Moreland in the lefty-lefty matchup.

-Home runs are usually mundane, but it seems like every homer hit in this series are either completely crushed or, in the case of Adrian Beltre, absurd looking. Part of that is a World Series blast is more important, but these are some larger than life shots.

-I hope I'm not the only NY Rangers fan to notice that both Rangers teams results seem to be tied together, at least since Game 6 of the ALCS when Texas won, but the Rangers lost to the Islanders. So far in the World Series, both Rangers won on Thursday and last night and both lost on Saturday. I'd root for a Game 7 Texas victory, however, that game won't end before New York's home opener, so Texas fans should root against the Leafs should a Game 7 be needed.

-When this is all over, I'm going to miss the Ron Washington Dance.

World Series Preview

Well, talk about unexpected World Series matchup, but we have the Texas Rangers and the St. Louis Cardinals. The second year in a row that a World Series between two teams who have nicknames that are used in other sports (NY Rangers, Arizona Cardinals). For the Rangers, they've made it here on the back on the balance in their lineup and their bullpen, which has been particularly dominant, especially when you remove any appearance by Koji Uehara. The Cards, on the other hand, haven't really had a formula, as Tony La Russa seems to be able to make every move work. They also have had a great postseason by Albert Pujols, and the bullpen has done the job when called upon, which has been early and often for La Russa. Here's the top storylines of the series.

1. Will anybody watch this Series? No matter how much you like baseball, it's something that needs to be asked after another year of low LCS ratings. If baseball marketed their stars well, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Neftali Feliz would be enough to get casual eyeballs to this series. Now, the only way you'll see casual fans is if the series goes 6 or 7 games (preferably 7). Since 2004, the only series to go 6 games is the Yanks and Phillies in 2009. So, let's hope for a long series.

2. Will Nelson Cruz continue his feast of famine approach to hitting? Do we see the Cruz who was 1 for 15 against the Tampa Bay Rays, or do we see the man who dominated the Tigers series with 6 HR's, 13 RBI's and a .364 average. If the latter, the Cards are in plenty of trouble. If it's the former, then the top of the Rangers lineup will have more pressure to hit, especially in St. Louis.

3. How much will DH/no DH make a difference for either team? It's a question that comes up in every World Series. Judging from Ron Washington's Game 1 lineup, expect plenty of Michael Young at first and Mitch Moreland doing pitch hitting. For the Cards, the answer for who plays in Texas is easy, as Allen Craig will play the outfield and I'll assume it's Lance Berkman who's in at DH. With Craig, the Cards have a guy who's a pitcher must be careful.

4. Can the Cardinals bullpen match the Rangers? Biggest question mark for the Cards. The Rangers, aside from Koji Uehara, are outstanding in the bullpen. The Cards have pitched above and beyond, but now it gets serious. The Rangers, though slightly, are a better hitting team than the Brewers and the masterful job Tony La Russa has done with his bullpen will say a lot if it continues.

5. How does the likes of Hamilton, Kinsler, Andrus, etc. handle their second straight World Series appearance? Last year, the Rangers made the World Series on the back of Cliff Lee, then he lost in the World Series, and no one really picked up the slack in the five game loss to the Giants. Now, Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus are all a year old and wiser. Adrian Beltre and Matt Napoli have added some pop in the Rangers lineup, an obvious need. C.J. Wilson has a payday to play for and his start could mean the difference from 15 million a year and 18 million (probably won't make a difference, but go with me). They were favored last year, how do they handle being favored this year?

6. Will Chris Carpenter pitch 3 games? Simple question, answer isn't as much. One reason, because we would need a Game 7 to happen. The main reason is because Carpenter is fighting some injury issues. Right now, it's Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson scheduled to pitch. So it probably doesn't allow Carpenter to start 3 games. But in a Game 7, win or go home, you're telling me Tony La Russa won't call upon a former Cy Young winner in a big spot? I don't think so.

7. Is this the last we see of Albert Pujols as a Cardinal? Pujols has been great this postseason, best one from him in quite a few years (I'd say 2005 for him). We all know he's getting paid by someone, but will it be the Cardinals? I really don't think the choice is difficult. Jon Paul Morosi wrote this on the pending free agency of Pujols:

When the season began, there was a credible exit strategy for Pujols: If the Cardinals finished out of the money, and if manager Tony La Russa left for the White Sox or elsewhere, then Pujols could take stock of the situation and say, “Well, maybe it’s time.”

He can’t do that now. The Cardinals are in the World Series for the third time in his illustrious career. La Russa isn’t going to the White Sox, and he’s probably not going anywhere at all. Pujols is hitting in the best lineup in the National League, one that is deeper now with the emergence of NLCS MVP David Freese. As Laird said, this team should be as good — and maybe even better — next year.

I really don't see Pujols burning his bridge in St. Louis, win or lose. The Cards will pay and Pujols will stay.

8. Will Nolan Ryan be proven right about his "Rangers in 6" prediction? No, I have the Cardinals winning a thrilling 7 games, with Matt Holliday as your MVP, since I hardly mentioned him until now. For those watching, enjoy a great series. For those not, enjoy watching the Colts and the Jaguars on primetime football games this week.

Season Saving Wins

There was a chance both LCS' would have been short. Both the Tigers and the Brewers needed a win. The circumstances were different; Detroit was down to it's last game, while the Brewers needed to avoid getting into a 3-1 series hole. And the other different circumstance was that the Brewers were going with Randy Wolf to get them back in the series, their number 4 starter, while the Tigers had Justin Verlander, the soon-to-be Cy Young winner and possible MVP.

What happens? Both men save the season.

Verlander had the tougher task. Not only for the obvious of not allowing the Rangers eliminate the Tigers last night, but he needed to give Joakim Benoit and Jose Valverde a day off after both men pitched three straight days. So one thing you were guaranteed to see was that Verlander was going to throw until his arm couldn't throw anymore.

Just like it's been all playoffs, Verlander hasn't been dominant. He's been hit, but the damage always seems to be mitigated. Just one run in the 1st inning. Holds the Rangers to one run in the 5th (though a inch or two to the right and Adrian Beltre knocks the ball out). Then loads the bases in the 6th, and faces Ian Kinsler, who was hitting him hard all game long. First pitch and a double play, ending the inning. It was at that point which Verlander was rewarded for his escapability, as the Tigers put up 4 in the bottom half, helped by the 3rd base bag.

Verlander finished the game after a Nelson Cruz HR, but with a lead. Enough outs for Phil Coke to close the door and to set up a return trip to Arlington.

Meanwhile, Randy Wolf was outstanding, better than Verlander. He goes 7 innings strong, only giving up a couple solo HR's. That was enough when you pitch for the Brewers, who predictably got to Kyle Lohse. It was more redemption for Wolf, after he was hit hard in Game 4 of the last round against Arizona.

Now, the Brewers-Cards series is up for grabs, which benefits Milwaukee who are great at home, plus they have Zack Greinke pitching the road start. It would seem to me that St. Louis needs to win tonight so they don't have to win two games at Miller Park. Of course, if the Cardinals are "zombie-like", as Jeff Passan suggests, then maybe they would prefer to have to win two in Milwaukee. The best of three begins tonight.


As for the ALCS, tomorrow is Game 6, with Game 2 starters Derek Holland and Max Scherzer doing battle. It will be interesting to see who gets this game to the bullpens with a lead. Especially with Benoit and Valverde each getting two days off. It should be a fun weekend of baseball and Justin Verlander and Randy Wolf are big reasons for that.

ALCS Preview

Time for a quick preview of the ALCS with the Detroit Tigers set to face the Detroit Tigers momentarily. We begin the series with the two aces of each team's staff pitching as Justin Verlander gets to pitch on normal rest here in Game 1, facing C.J. Wilson, who hasn't pitched since Game 1 of the Tampa series, which he was hit hard by the Rays lineup at the tune of 8 runs, 6 earned in 5 IP. Verlander is off a gritty 8 IP, 4 ER performance which he at times was toying with the Yankee hitters with his fastball and curve, but had a couple inning make Game 3 much closer than it should have been.


Just like in the Yankees series, the Tigers will have the perceived weakness in their lineup and their bullpen. And again, it's not accurate when Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are batting. The thing that hurts Detroit is the loss of Delmon Young to an oblique injury, but this means that Don Kelly will get more playing time after the great series he played. The Rangers lineup seems to have new heroes every game; the last one being Adrian Beltre hitting 3 HR's in the deciding game. In my eyes the bullpens favor Texas as while Valverde=Feliz and Benoit=Adams, the Rangers are deeper with Ogando and Mike Gonzalez. As for the rest of the rotation, it's a slight edge to the Tigers, with Doug Fister ready for a Game 7 and the terrific pitching of Max Scherzer. And that's why I have the Tigers winning the series in 7, back in the World Series for the first time since 2006.

ALDS Preview

Today is the beginning of the American League playoffs and I'm absolutely certain the drama will not match that of the last day of the year. It can't, there won't be four must-win games going on at the same exact time in these playoffs. There will be a spacing of these games for television purposes, so it's not built to equal the excitement of the opening weekend of March Madness, which Wednesday night was (and will be next year now that Gus Johnson no longer will call that).

Now, we are down to 4 teams left in the AL and they are very similar to the teams last year as a result of the Tampa Bay Rays incredible comeback win Wednesday, giving the Red Sox the worst collapse in history, an 11 on the Choke-O-Meter. Now, they get their rematch with the Texas Rangers with two major differences. One, Texas has the home-field and last year, home-field meant nothing as the road team won each game. And two; no Cliff Lee, the main reason the Rangers won 2 games in Tampa. Instead, it's C.J. Wilson who heads the staff with Derek Holland pitching Game 2 and some combination of Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis in Tampa. The Rays might be a little stronger in their rotation, despite the struggles of David Price this year as James Shields is much improved and Jeremy Hellickson has been tremendous in his first year. However, the surprise is how Matt Moore will make his second career start later in Game 1. One thing's for sure, if all the managers in baseball dropped their pants, Joe Maddon I guarantee you will end up with the biggest set of balls. Bar none.

The lineups are a contrast, just like last year. The Rangers, led by Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre can mash with anyone. Meanwhile the Rays have Evan Longoria as their biggest threat, with a lot of guys who can do anything and are opportunistic. This results in Matt Joyce and Dan Johnson with season saving home runs in back-to-back games. The Rangers have the clear edge in the bullpen because Neftali Feliz is a MAJOR upgrade at closer than Kyle Farnsworth. The Rays have been up and down with their relievers, only they are pitching very well as of late. Texas now will have Alexi Ogando in the bullpen, joining Mike Adams and Mike Gonzalez as quality arms in the bullpen (I don't care how good Darren Oliver is, I'll never trust him, though he could succeed against Tampa). It comes down to this, Tampa is hot, very hot in the past week, however, they might have better served playing Boston yesterday and keeping the momentum going. The day might kill it, like it did last week in NY and I think Texas wins this series in 4 games.

The other series is the Yankees once again, facing the lone newcomer in the AL, the Detroit Tigers. The script for this series could be the Game 1 matchup of CC Sabathia against Justin Verlander, the man who will win the Cy Young and dare I say, likely MVP winner. You'd think that the Game 1 winner sets everything up for the series, but the Yankees have Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia going in Games 2 and 3 and you won't know who either man will pitch. The Tigers trot Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello and that's not exactly a Phillies rotation full of arms either, though Fister has been very good and if Verlander should fall tonight, Fister is more than capable to winning Game 2 and getting a split.

Both teams lineups are good offensively, even though the number of household names is less on the Tigers. I will say that the most feared hitter on either team is Miguel Cabrera, yes, even more than Robinson Cano, though not by much. However, no team will have an easy time getting through Curtis Granderson, Cano, Alex Rodriguez (if he's healthy) and Mark Teixeira (if he finally can hit in the postseason). Lineup wise, A-Rod is the key, just like every other postseason the Yankees have been involved in since his arrival. It's funny that the one year A-Rod hit like he does in the regular season, the Yanks have won his lone World Series. Detroit has Victor Martinez alongside Cabrera, with Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta also with terrific years. Looking at the bullpens, the Yankees have the advantage, but not by much since Jose Valverde is perfect in save opportunities. We all know Mo, that's the advantage, plus when you add the ridiculous year David Robertson posted. Tough series and if this goes 5, the Tigers win. I think it goes 4 and the Yankees take it, setting the rematch in the ALCS.

LCS Preview

For time purposes, I won't have separate ALCS and NLCS previews. As such, the same format of the previous round preview will take place.

Let's start with the Yankees-Rangers, who begin their series tonight. The Yanks have the edge because Cliff Lee won't get to start the series in Texas because of his dominating performance in Game 5 against the Rays. Or so they think. The fact is, Lee would only start two games no matter what and as far as I'm concerned, Game 7 is more important than Game 5. If this series reaches seven games, the Rangers will win. So the key for the Yankees is to not let this series reach seven games, shades of the Mets in 1986 who had to avoid Mike Scott in Game 7 against Houston, including playing in the state of Texas and not having home field.

Looking past the Lee situation, you must consider that the Rangers top 6 in their lineup is nearly as dangerous as the Yankees. Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Guerrero, Cruz and Kinsler is very tricky to manuever, especially for lefties, which the Yankees have in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. The best move (one I should have tweeted before to first guess) is Joe Girardi having Phil Hughes pitch Game 2, against Colby Lewis, giving the Yanks the advantage. There is the spector of A.J. Burnett in Game 4, but tonight's Sabathia-C.J. Wilson showdown will determine if he's used. As for my series prediction, I think Sabathia wins tonight and the Yanks win in 6 games, avoiding Lee in Game 7.


The Giants-Phillies series has one theme; pitching, pitching and more pitching. The first game has Roy Halladay against Tim Lincecum, which Fox is promoting as the best Game 1 matchup in history, which I'd argue, but haven't found better. The Giants have the best 4 pitchers left with Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain and Madison Baumgartner ready to go. While the Phils have Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels in the next two games, their fourth starter is a question mark. The key for the Giants is the Lincecum start. If he can outpitch Halladay, the Giants have an interesting opportunity. The secret of the series, the Phightin's hitters are hitting about as good as the Giants. Despite that, I think the Phillies do enough in the first 3 games and knock off the Giants in 5 games and will face the Yankees in a rematch of last year, one that eagerly awaited.

Division Series Preview

Tomorrow is the start of the Division Series and it seems like while the NL favorite is clearly the Phillies, the AL is wide open, which is a reversal of recent years when the AL's favorite was defined and the NL had four potential winners. Of course, even in those years with a prohibitive favorite (usually the 02-07 Yankees), that team usually didn't win. That's usually because the crapshoot of the MLB playoffs is this round, due to the best of five. Let's take a brief look at each series.

Philadelphia Phillies-Cincinnati Reds

This is a series which the Reds will need to overachieve to beat the best team in the majors. They also will need to forget about their series from July which the Phillies had three straight walkoff wins, including one from a seven run deficit which Cody Ransom was a key player. The Reds are also facing a Phils team that has Roy Oswalt now and have Cole Hamels almost back to being the pitcher from 2008. The only chance I can see for the Reds is if Joey Votto explodes and/or Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto can outpitch the Phillies starters. Can't see that happening. Phillies win in 4.


San Francisco Giants-Atlanta Braves

Very interesting with a team that can pitch with anyone in the Giants, but have trouble hitting, while the Braves to a lot of things good, but nothing great. Lineups are basically a wash, including the dueling Rookie of the Year candidates and have very good managers in Bobby Cox and Bruce Bochy. The Braves have to pitch with the Giants and if Derek Lowe is on, they could with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. I think the deciding factor is that Hudson will only start Game 3, while the Giants will have Tim Lincecum for two starts, and a hot Lincecum at that. Giants will win in 5.


Tampa Bay Rays-Texas Rangers

Texas was going to be a sexy first round team because of Cliff Lee. However, looking at the starters, the Rangers don't have Lee going in Game 4, a huge disadvantage. Also, Lee hasn't been particularly effective against the Rays this year. So the Rangers will need to hit and after David Price, they'll have their chance to hit. The toughest issue for the Rays is that with Lee and C.J. Wilson, the Rays lefties will be neutralized, so Evan Longoria and B.J. Opton will have to step up. With Lee being saved for a Game 5, I happen to think the Rangers won't be able to win starts without Lee and with the Rays at home and able to use their awful stadium to success on the basepaths, Tampa should win. Rays will win in 4.


Minnesota Twins-New York Yankees

The biggest series of the round will involve the one AL team with no concerns over pitching in the Twins. The Yanks will need Andy Pettitte to be ready soon in order to not only pitch, but also pitch well enough to steal Game 2 in Minnesota. This series will be interesting to see outdoor baseball in October in Minneapolis and to see if the Yanks lefties can hit HR's to right, like they will in NY. Francisco Liriano had a strong year this year and deserved the top spot in the rotation, while Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing have complimented well. The Yanks will hope Phil Hughes pitches well and if so, the Yanks will win. I think the Twins have a better bullpen than we thought they would have when Joe Nathan got hurt. This helps the Twins (except Brian Fuentes) because their bullpen is better and might not have the fear when they come in. The keys for the Yanks are the same, hit, hit for power am? The Yankees should still be the favorites but they need to hit better which I'm sure they they can do, but dealing with a spacious stadium will hurt the Yanks, not to mention they have struggled in general since the All-Star break; don't think they can just flip a switch. Twins will win in 5.

The Yankees Mike Schmidt

Alex Rodriguez came up with runners on second and third in the seventh inning of today's Rangers-Yankees game, which the Yankees lost 7-2. He struck out and once again you can hear boos directed at A-Rod. In past years, perhaps the boos were warranted and in past playoffs, the boos were definitely warranted. However, booing Rodriguez is unfair for what he does at the plate and reminds me of Mike Schmidt's relationship in Philadelphia throughout his career.

The relationship between Yankees fans and Rodriguez have been very complex. It's full of highs and lows that I can't remember seeing with any player and his own fanbase. We have see the good times for A-Rod (his 3-HR game, 500th HR and plenty of clutch hits in 2007) and the bad ones(2004 ALCS, 2005 ALDS, 2006 season). It could have reached its lowest point after we found out that Rodriguez used steroids in Texas and the unintentional comedy of errors in judgement on how to explain it. However, A-Rod ended up getting credit (rightfully) for admitting to using, while so many others have not. It didn't hurt (no pun intended) that he needed hip surgery and missed the first month of the season. It's been his return that the Yankees were able to start this run of success that have them currently at 79-48, the best record in the league.

A-Rod's return showed us that he's needed in our lineup and he has, while not gaudy as he's accustomed to, been a clutch hitter for the Yankees, hitting big HR's in games such as the Phillies game and the 15th inning winner against the Red Sox. He also has been limited by the hip and clearly will need surgery to try and fix it in the offseason. It's unfair to expect Alex to get a big hit every time he comes up to bat because that is not how baseball works. You can only succeed 30 percent of the time to be considered good, 33 percent to be considered great. There always seems to be a clamoring by certain Yankee fans that A-Rod bat 1.000 when he has a chance to put runs on the board and anything less is a failure. That comes with the mentality that anything less than a World Series is a flat-out failure and a desire to be the first 162-0 team.

Don't get me wrong, if A-Rod chokes away in another postseason, you're jeers are on point and I will join you in that case. However, I believe it's time to listen to Subway Squawker Lisa. She has been defending A-Rod all year, not only against Red Sox fans who can't claim the PED argument anymore, but against Yankee fans who continue to be hard of him while he has hit more game-winning hits as a Yankee than Derek Jeter. The playoffs are one thing, but let's be fair during the regular season with A-Rod, especially with the big lead.

AL Power Poll

The dust has settled from the trade deadline, though I'm certain we will see a great deal of August trades this year. Even so, this is the perfect time to rank all of baseball from worst to first as a bit of a preview for the final two months and a more official prediction than you saw during my All-Star column. In fact, this should read more like my NBA Power Poll back in April. One little quirk: I will compare each team today and with the NL next week with the historical team they most resemble. Let's get started.

14. Kansas City- '97 Phillies: Like those Phillies, the Royals are terrible, but can trot Zack Greinke every fifth day, which is what the Phillies did with Curt Schilling. Unlike like those Phillies, the Royals did nothing at the trade deadline except take on Yuniesky Betancourt's awful (for them) contract. They should of dealt players away like the Pirates and Indians did, except Greinke. Instead, they continue to be a sad-sack franchise who's payroll is too high for a team that will be the worst in the AL.

13. Cleveland- '95 Expos: Just like Montreal, the Indians have torn apart a team that were very close to winning a World Series (certainly not the same scenario). Now, the Indians have traded two Cy Young winners and a couple of valuable hitters because of the awful contracts of Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook and Kerry Wood. Those three contracts all are easily in the top-10 in worst contracts in baseball and you can't play in Cleveland and have three contracts that bad. Add the fact that the Indians are losing $16 million for next season, and we might have our next broke franchise, unless LeBron knows how to play baseball. Then again, if he did, he'd sign with the Yankees.

12. Oakland- '95 A's: This was the last year of Tony La Russa's nine-year run in Oakland, who by this time was losing his genius status as A's manager (though would retain it in St. Louis). Billy Beane this season has started to do the same as this A's team has no one besides a washed-up Nomar Garciaparra following the Matt Holliday trade. Maybe Brett Wallace will be good in the future, maybe Gio Gonzalez as well and maybe Beane will find some good draft picks in the next few years. However, his career could end up just like the movie about his and Michael Lewis' book, on the shelf.

11. Baltimore- '93 Indians: That Cleveland team was a year away from becoming one of the best teams during the '90s. They started playing Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton and Manny Ramirez with regularity. Now, the Orioles are about to be the same thing as the Indians, they will be the third team who could beat the Yanks and/or Red Sox in a given year once the Rays crumble under small-market tendencies. Baltimore has the offense of the future with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters headlining a potent lineup and the pitching is on it's way in a few years. More importantly, this team is capable of sustaining success as long as Peter Angelos is willing to spend, which he's done before.

10. Toronto- '97 Expos: The situation the Blue Jays are about to go through already occurred with Montreal. The Expos never signed Pedro Martinez long-term and after his Cy Young season, had to trade him to Boston for the Carl Pavano pu-pu platter. Now, Roy Halladay wasn't dealt before the trade deadline at his highest value and now Toronto will receive much less than they should have if they weren't so steadfast to their price. However, if Alex Rios really was claimed, they should start doing cartwheels to be rid of his contract and be sure not to mess up and ask for a player.

9. Seattle- '02 Expos: Another team following the Expos playbook; this team straddled the fence between buyer and seller. No team ever did this as well as the Mariners this year. Two trades they will look back as either great or awful; the Jack Wilson/Ian Snell trade which they gave the Pirates five prospects and the Jarrod Washburn trade which is contingent on Luke French's success and Seattle's chance to resign Washburn in the offseason in a very hockey-like move (see Tkachuk, Keith).

8. Minnesota- '03 Cards: Now we finally get to the meat of the league. The Twins are always capable of making the playoffs, just like the Cardinals for the bulk of the Tony La Russa era. You can't write them off when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau hit for you and Joe Nathan is as good a closer as there is in baseball. However, the rotation seems to be lacking (they traded for Carl Pavano today) and the rest of the lineup isn't any good. Honestly, by now the Twins should have started to see good things from the Johan Santana trade and obviously that's not the case. Of the eight playoff contenders, Minnesota is most likely to miss the playoffs.

7. Chicago- '89 Mets: It seems like the White Sox still have the reputation of a winning team, like those Mets did. They both also acquired a former Cy Young winner at the trade deadline, giving up pitchers in return. Those not as bad as the Mets in 1989, the White Sox offense has declined and the pitching is about even for both teams. Most importantly, the Mets were in contention for much of the year but fell short and I think that's what will happen for the White Sox with the AL Central becoming better as the season went on. Plus the Peavy trade won't make them better this year, and happens to make them worse because Clayton Richard is better than whomever they trot out in his place, while Peavy gets healthy. Also, if the White Sox decided to claim Alex Rios, they take on another $10 million+ contract without any guarantee of success.

6. Tampa Bay- '07 Tigers: Detroit seemed like they would be better after picking up Gary Sheffield in the offseason and maintained everyone else, until the pitching let them down. The Rays are about to fall victim the same way as their pitching hasn't returned to form at all, neutralizing a good offense. Their bullpen is still iffy and starters like Scott Kazmir and James Shields have been mediocre when we expected the rotation to continue improvement. It seems like their pitchers are feeling the effects of pitching through the World Series, like the Tigers before. Their offense has kept them in the hunt, like Detroit did, but it seems like now the World Series loser is becoming like the Super Bowl loser; they fall apart the year after. However, the wild card in the AL will have a flaw and they have the offense to steal the last spot in the playoffs.

5. Boston- '06 Red Sox: This Red Sox team reminds me so much of the Sox in 2006; won the title two years earlier, lost in the playoffs as a wild card and now seemingly falling apart. Kevin Youkilis has been huge for this team, Jason Bay started hotter than anyone and Dustin Pedroia has moved his average back to .308. Also, Josh Beckett is pitching is typically good odd-numbered year, Jon Lester has bounced back from early trouble and the bullpen has generally pitched as good as advertised.

However, this lineup is still weaker then normal since David Ortiz and Jason Varitek are automatic outs and they haven't been making clutch hits as of late. Also, they rotation, once thought to be as good as any in baseball, now is very weak as John Smoltz pitched like Chien-Ming Wang back in April, Tim Wakefield and Dice-K are hurt and Clay Bucholtz is a tweener; great in the minors, mediocre in the majors (like Kei Igawa) only the no-hitter he pitched still gets everyone thinking he can be good. If Boston makes the playoffs, they need to have Victor Martinez join Youkilis and Pedroia as the real hitting threats and they need to find an arm to acquire, maybe Jon Garland if the D-Backs make him available. I think of all the teams, they will be the ones to most regret not going all in for Roy Halladay.

4. Texas- '07 Rockies: Now while I do throw the label of the Rockies for this Rangers team, let's let it be known that no one has any idea if the Rangers can win 21 of 22 games to reach the World Series. In fact, the AL is too tough for anyone to do that in the playoffs. However, Texas if finally getting enough pitching to compete, like Colorado did that year, which is the real question for both teams annually. The real question left for Texas is can they survive the final month of summer and still have enough to continue through into September. One thing to remember, the Rangers have beaten the Angels eight of their ten games entering Saturday's game, just like the Red Sox against the Yankees.

The Rangers offense isn't as strong as it generally has been since Josh Hamilton has been hurt and ineffective when healthy. Their offense is on pace to score less than 100 runs from last year. They're winning because they're on pace to give up less than 250 runs, which is amazing to say the least. The bullpen has been great for the Rangers this year; hard throwers who have found control this year, while Kevin Millwood has been quietly effective and Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter have stepped up as well. Michael Young, after the switch to 3B and his demand for a trade, is having an MVP-like season. They look like the wild card in this league.

3. Detroit- '87 Tigers & '91 Twins: Both teams fit for the Tigers mainly since the Doyle Alexander trade for John Smoltz might end up being the Jarrod Washburn for Luke French trade if French is great. Everyone forgets that Alexander went 9-0 during the stretch run as the Tigers returned to the playoffs. They compare with those Tigers also by having a strong rotation support a weak bullpen. They play more like the Twins though as the offense is above-average like Detroit's offense has become. Also, they have bounced back from worst-to-first like the Twins did, yet still had recent success to harp on during the dog days. Washburn joining Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello for a fearsome foursome of starters for the playoffs.

This is the AL team you want to avoid in the Division Series because they can pitch as well as anyone. And if they play the series that skips a day, they would only need to use Verlander, Jackson and Washburn in a series, each of whom has pitched his team to the World Series. While the bullpen and lineup do leave something to be desired, Miguel Cabrera is having an MVP season and Fernando Rodney is a legit closer. Think of the Tigers as the top sleeper because of their starters.

2. New York- "93 Blue Jays : The lineup is just as stacked as the Blue Jays were during their second championship season, while the pitching was good, but can give up some runs. The major difference between those Jays and these Yankees is the fact that Toronto were the defending champs, but the free agent spending spree by both teams were similar as Toronto signed Paul Molitor and Dave Stewart. In the past few weeks, it's become obvious that the Yankees are headed to the playoffs and now we need to see where they end up. Ever since A-Rod has returned, the Yankees have gone 54-27; as Tim McCarver said, that's winning two out of every three games. The pitching has been good mostly, great at times (like last night), awful at others (last Saturday).

The biggest issue of this Yankees team is can they beat the Red Sox and/or Angels in a playoff series. Now the Yankees have took the last two games against the Red Sox, but if that's the Red Sox team that will continue this season, the Red Sox are a non-factor. The Angels are different, they were just swept in Anaheim before the All-Star break in almost every way you can lose a series. They should be worried about the White Sox and Detroit as well; if they lose one at Yankee Stadium, they could be beat on the road in Round 1.

1. Los Angeles- '02 Angels: This Angels team is the most like their one World Series winner. They have started to hit as well as they did back then and have done it without Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter for large stretches this year. The pitching has got better and I still think they will continue to improve from earlier this year when they lost three starters, one of which tragically in Nick Adenhart. However, this rotation is probably as thought of as the rotation was in 2002. They had guys like Ramon Ortiz and a past-his-prime Kevin Appier pitching in the playoffs. One thing to be aware, Mike Scioscia will always have the team ready to play everyday and that is something you don't overlook.

Honestly, if the Red Sox were doing better, I would of had them ahead of the Angels because they always beat them. However, the Angels always beat the Yankees; all they need is to win one at Yankee Stadium in any series it seems and they finish them at Angel Stadium. Also, I'm sure Bobby Abreu would love to beat his old team. Look at the Angels lineup and everyone is hitting above .290 except Howie Kendrick and Gary Matthews Jr. Matthews won't play once Hunter comes back and Kendrick is a Yankee-killer should they meet. As long as the Angels avoid the Red Sox in the Division Series, they should win the AL

MLB Recap and Re-Picks

Tonight's the MLB All-Star Game and it gives everyone a redo of their preseason picks. Like most baseball writers and bloggers, I have some picks I'm proud of and many that I was completely wrong about. If anyone would like to read the preview edition in it's entirety, here it is. Of my eight award picks, Pujols is right, Halladay could be Cy Young and Santana and Wieters need great second-halfs to have any chance to win NL Cy and AL ROY, respectively.

The playoff pick I want back is Cleveland for obvious reasons, but the Royals, Mets and Cubs have disappointed me. The Giants I thought could contend, but didn't think the Wild Card would of been in play. I'm satisfied with my AL East picks now that the Rays have played better and have as good a chance to win. I undersold how much better the Tigers and Mariners would be and glossed over the Rangers, who have played well. In the NL, the Phillies and Dodgers are where I thought and the Cards and Brewers have played as I expected as well. With that said, here are five fearless predictions for baseball's second half.

1. The Blue Jays will not trade Roy Halladay. J.P. Ricciardi has said he will shop the best pitcher in the American League, but I can't see the Jays get fair value for him in the regular season. They are going to want four premium players/prospects, maybe a fifth and though it will be easier to get this season when he has a year left on his contract, I still can't see them sell it to the good people of Toronto. Honestly, if I'm a Blue Jays fan, I'd stop showing up to games if they trade him and maybe never return. Hockey season doesn't start until October and in Toronto, its 24/7 like baseball in New York.

2. Albert Pujols will win the Triple Crown. Prince Albert has sustained a big enough HR lead to not have to continue his pace and a Triple Crown is more memorable than a run at the HR record. The average is the only thing low, but I think Pujols will up it to .345 and Hanley Ramirez will drop his average. His great play will eventually lead to a NL Central title in St. Louis and return to the postseason for Tony La Russa and friends.

3. The axe will fall for both the Mets and Yankees. Even though injuries are killing the Mets, Jerry Manuel will be blamed for the season. Also, Joe Girardi will be fired as well by the Yankees because I don't think they can get past the first round; if they even make the playoffs. For some reason, I still think Omar Minaya and Brian Cashman will be saved this year, even though they deserve to go with their managers.

4. Seattle and Texas will just miss the playoffs. The Mariners and Rangers have been competitive with the Angels this season, but I don't see them beating out the Halos, now that their offense is clicking and the pitching has become healthier. As for more teams that will be on the outside, the Braves, Brewers, White Sox and Twins also just miss. I also think the Yankees will get passed by the Rays for the AL Wild Card

5. The Cubs will bounce back from a poor first half to make the playoffs. Chicago will make the playoffs as predicted and join the Cards, Phillies and Dodgers as the Giants fail to trade for a hitter and fall short with the Rockies. The AL will have the Red Sox, Rays, Tigers and Angels in the playoffs. Now, my World Series will include the Red Sox and the Dodgers and have Manny's return to Fenway. In a tough six game series, Los Angeles beats Boston.