NLDS Preview

Yesterday, the ALDS was tackled. Yet, already the Yankees-Tigers series has taken a complete turn because of the rainout in Game 1, forcing CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander to lose their impact, going from in essence two starts to one. Buster Olney this morning had been tweeting like crazy about the potential of Sabathia convincing Joe Girardi to let him go in Game 2. I believe the chances of him pitching Game 2 hinge on how the rest of Game 1 plays out. If the Yanks lose, then I can see CC pitch, or be saved until Monday if the Yankees lead 1-0. Enough about this series, today the National League begins their round of playoffs.


Let's start with the Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals, who like the Rays, surged their way into the playoffs, beating out the Red Sox brethren in the art of the collapse, the Atlanta Braves. It wasn't a good year for the Cardinals up until late August, then Albert Pujols turned around his year, and Tony La Russa started taking a firmer role with the pitching staff and bullpen once Dave Duncan left the team to be with his wife. It's been tough for the Redbirds without Adam Wainwright all year, and they have patched together a staff led by Chris Carpenter, and a bullpen that only recently started to gel. Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia have been decent, but will have to be extraordinary to match the Phillies arms. The Cardinals bats don't have as much to match; they still have Pujols, plus Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. They arguably have the better lineup when compared to their opponents.


Meanwhile, the Phillies lineup continues to get older and less productive (aside from Shane Victorino). Jimmy Rollins is the NL-version of 2010 Derek Jeter, Ryan Howard is more and more becoming a feast of famine hitter and Chase Utley just can't stay healthy for a full year. You'd be more worried if not for the fact that the Phillies can trot out the best pitching rotation since the 90s era Braves. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt are as formidable a quartet of arms as any in history. I mean Hamels carried the Phillies to the title in 2008 and he's now the number 3 starter. Doc shows up in postseason play last year, and all he does is throw a no-hitter. Lee has swung the pennant for the last two years with his pitching, particularly last year. And everyone forgets Oswalt because his last postseason play before last year was in Houston back in 2004-05 as well as the fact he's struggled with injury this year. One last thing about the Phillies, the bullpen is not weak. Ryan Madson has filled the role of closer superbly and it appears the Brad Lidge is back as a setup man, which for some reason, I think can work out. If the Phillies go down, it won't be against the Cards. This should be like their series with the Reds last year and I see a sweep.

The final first round series is the one that's starting within an hour as the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the powerful Milwaukee Brewers. Power is the word for the Brewers in their approach to hitting and pitching. The Brewers three-headed monster of Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are as good as any trio not named Halladay, Lee and Hamels. They are also supported with a vastly improved bullpen with Francisco Rodriguez as the setup man and John Axford as the closer, who's been a gem this season. We all know the Brewers lineup with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder as the biggest threats, but once you start rattling names like Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks, then you have the most formidable lineup in the NL and one any team would be wary to face, especially at Miller Park, where the Brewers have a majors leading 57-24 record at home.

That's the challenge for the Diamondbacks, who seemed to win the NL West with ease after back-to-back losing seasons. The story most of the nation knows about Arizona is pitcher Ian Kennedy's breakout season which saw him win 20 and Justin Upton as the dominant bat in the lineup, but that's not fair to Kirk Gibson's team. They have Miguel Montero, who's just as much a run producer as Upton, despite lesser power. You also happen to be dealing with arguably the best fielding team in baseball, and just so happened to score more runs this year than Milwaukee. The pitching staff for the DBacks are solid behind Kennedy, with Daniel Hudson as the best of the rest. The real pitching story is the improved bullpen that they have. This team had the worst bullpen in baseball the last few years, but led by closer JJ Putz, David Hernandez and Brad Ziegler, they are impressive. Just not impressive enough to outlast the Brewers with home-field advantage, as Milwaukee will win a hard-fought 5 game series.

Twins-Yankees Preview

The N.Y. Yankees finally have an opponent in the ALDS as they will face the Minnesota Twins who beat the Detroit Tigers in a crazy game that was a great game on the field and a terrible one from the broadcast booth. Unfortunately, Chip Caray follows the Twins to Yankee Stadium in a series that will make you glad to hear Joe Buck and Tim McCarver in the ALCS. Let's preview:


Infield: Just like in the Phillies series, there an area that one team is better than the other. Now, the Twins have good infielders in Michael Cuddyer and Orlando Cabrera, but losing Justin Morneau makes this easy. Cuddyer isn't in Mark Teixeira's league where Morneau is a push, Derek Jeter has the advantage over Cabrera (though not in a romp) and Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano are enormous differences over Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto. Advantage Yankees


LF: Delmon Young vs. Johnny Damon- While the Yankees have an all-time great infield, the outfield is not as good and we start at left field. Damon has had a fine year and his swing is built for Yankee Stadium, however he has struggled in the last month and needs to bounce back. Meanwhile, Young had the exact opposite season, starting very slow, but has been hot for the past two months, getting big hits in lifting the Twins. If you ask me in July, it's advantage Yanks, but I can't ignore the fact that is seems like Young is starting to get it and realize his potential. Even


CF: Denard Span vs. Melky Cabrera- The interesting thing about both players is that they can be moved to left field for defensive purposes, not because either guy is poor, but because left field must be addressed late in games. Great bounce back year for Cabrera and he early on had a bunch of walkoff hits. Span is a very good ballplayer who can bring speed both with hitting and defense. These two really are the same player except for Span's speed and hitting, but Melky is the 8th man on the Yanks where Span is the 3rd or 4th guy on the Twins. Advantage Twins


RF: Jason Kubel vs. Nick Swisher- Swisher has been one of the catalysts in the loosening up of the mid-2000s Yankees as his personality is more like one of the Red Sox "Idiots" from the 2004 title team. Kubel has been clutch in the past month with big HR's, picking up the slack for Morneau's injury. While Swisher's role in the clubhouse is important, he hits just like Jason Giambi, has power and plate discipline, but can't hit for average. Hitting for average is overrated though as long as your on-base is good and that certainly applies for Swisher. Advantage Twins


Catcher: Joe Mauer vs. Jorge Posada/Jose Molina- The reason Molina is here is because of A.J. Burnett, otherwise he's on the bench group. While Molina turns the Yankees into a National League team, Posada can still rake if needed, though not the same degree. However, Molina controls the basepaths better than Posada can. Wait a minute, why am I spending time on this, Joe Mauer is the best player in the AL and only Pujols could be better in baseball. Advantage Twins


DH: Jose Morales vs. Hideki Matsui- This is another reason where losing Morneau hurts the Twins; before you have Cuddyer in right field and Kubel as DH. Morales just doesn't stack up when compared with Matsui, who has hit as well as he has since four years. Advantage Yankees


Starting pitching: The Yankees can pitch only three guys, the Twins need to pitch four. None of the Twins starters can dominate like CC Sabathia or even A.J. Burnett. Carl Pavano is prominently involved and is cited as a positive for the Twins. Burnett gets to use his personal catcher for his starts, so he better pitch well, since Andy Pettitte will only start one game. Advantage Yankees


Bullpen: Unlike the starters, the bullpens are much closer mainly because Joe Nathan is, if not as good as Mariano Rivera, he's at least one notch below. They also have four relievers in Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares who have pitched very well on the Twins. Obviously, the Yanks have Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson who have done well and perhaps the Yanks will see the old Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. Even


Bench: The Twins bench has more speed than power, and is more likely to steal a base than get a big hit with guys like Alexi Casilla and Carlos "Does my run last night even out the Johan Santana trade" Gomez. The Yankees I have to say have their best bench in years with Eric Hinske and Jerry Hairston Jr. and counter the speed with Brett Gardner. Advantage Yankees


Manager: Ron Gardenhire vs. Joe Girardi- Girardi to be fair has done a good job on this Yankees team, though I think he could have handled this Burnett-Posada situation better. Naturally, because I follow the Yankees all year and the Twins I barely watch, I will be picking more nits with Joe than Ron. I just watch the Twins year in and year out and they are just the same and that has to do with Gardenhire. Plus, he's managed in postseason, while Girardi is now in his first. Advantage Twins


Intangibles: The word intangibles in the dictionary has a picture of the Twins. The Yankees looseness is the best I can come up with. The Twins have the momentum of a 17-4 run that put them in the playoffs, while playing without Morneau. I said before how Morneau is a big loss; well the Twins don't realize that yet. Also, I know the Yankees have played well in the Metrodome, but right now, that place has a magic that's hard to just write off. Advantage Twins


The Twins will win if: Murphy's Law prevails for both teams. Unlike any other series, the Twins must have each of the following happen: CC continues postseason struggles; Burnett blows up in Game 2; each Yankee in the lineup goes on a slump, leading to more A-Rod in postseason talk; the Metrodome proves to be a huge home-field advantage; Mauer plays MVP-like and their hitters follow suit.


The Yankees will win if: Anything from the above doesn't happen. Let's put it this way, if the Yankees lose this series to the Twins, only the Red Sox in 2004 would be a worse loss. Almost every advantage belongs to the Yankees and they must win this series or people should be fired.


Prediction: Yankees in four

Never Say Never Again

Based on the crowd at Nationals Park yesterday, nobody in Washington knew that there was a future-Hall of Famer winning his 300th game, which is exactly what Randy Johnson did last night. Now that this milestone has been accomplished by the Big Unit, the question has been pondered if he will be the last 300-game winner ever in baseball. Tim Kurkjian was saying the other day that no one will reach it among the current starters.





However, I think there is an opportunity for a few players to reach the 300 milestone among the active pitchers. Now all of the pitchers in the 200-range; Jamie Moyer, Andy Pettitte, John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez; won't get there since Martinez can't find work, Smoltz lost wins when he was a closer, Pettitte probably won't pitch long enough and Moyer would need to pitch until 60 to reach 300. Here, though is a list of pitchers who have an opportunity to reach the milestone.





Roy Halladay



Currently, Halladay has 140 career wins, including the 9 he has this season. He turned 32 a few weeks ago. After winning 18 games over 4 years, he won 19 followed by 22 during his Cy Young season. He's averaged a shade over 14 wins a season since, mainly due to injuries in 2004 and 2005. However, the one thing Halladay has going for him is the fact that he is probably the most durable pitcher in terms of going long into games. He has 40 complete games this decade, more than any other pitcher. He also continues to pitch at a high level based on his 9-1 start with a 2.77 ERA. Halladay should reach the 150 win mark at the end of this season, and can reach 200 by 2012 if he keeps up this level which would leave about 100 wins to go at age 35. It then is up to how many years he continues to pitch, but if he pitches well to 40 and can stay in the big leagues until about 43, when the other 300-game winners pitched to in recent years, he will make it. I give his chances of reaching it at around 50%.


Tim Hudson

Honestly, the only reason I mention him is that he's only 33 and at 146 wins. However, he's hurt all year and has only had one 15+ win season since 2003. Hudson would be lucky if he ends with 200 wins, much less 300. 0%


Roy Oswalt

He's probably the most interesting case due to his talent and the fact that his team's performance is very indicative of his success. He's won 131 games through his career and will turn 32 later this year. Oswalt's strengths include the fact he has won more than 14 games all but once in his career and that he doesn't get hurt that often. However, this season has not been kind to Roy as he's only won 2 games in 12 starts and the Astros seem like they will be bad for a long time and his stats could go down because of it, unless he's traded (though Drayton McLane has never wanted to trade him). Honestly, Oswalt will pass 250 wins, but I think he falls short of 300 because he will stay in Houston too long and that will lower his win total. I give him a 10% chance.


CC Sabathia

If there's one active player is most likely to get there, it's CC. He has benefited from winning 10+ every year since his first year at age 20. Now he's 28 and currently has 122 wins. I'm almost certain that Sabathia will reach 150 at the end of next season. He also gets to have the Yankee offense scoring for him, though New Yankee Stadium will hurt his stats. He also is another pitcher who has stayed healthy despite his physique and tends to pitch a lot of innings as well, always a positive in getting wins. I also think he is able to get to 300 at many age 40 or even 39 so I do think he will get there and his chances to me are at 70%.


Johan Santana

What is true is that Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, based on his level of dominance in the American League and it's translated in the NL. However, the Mets have done an awful job giving him run support and his defense failed him a couple games this year. Add the seven wins he lost last year due to the Mets bullpen, and I think he will have a tough time. He's 31 with 116 wins lifetime. I don't think Santana makes it, but it won't matter since Santana can make it to Cooperstown without it. I give him a 15% chance.


Carlos Zambrano

Tonight, Zambrano won his 100 victory and will get his own paragraph because of that. He just turned 28 on Monday and has never really been hurt all that much thus far. He's never had less than 13 wins since he became a full-time starter in 2003. What hurts Zambrano is that he doesn't really pitch long in games and has yet to win more than 18 games and that only occurred once. He seems like he will fall short and something tells me that he won't play in twelve years, unlike some of the others who I mentioned, so that only gives him an 8% chance.

Updated 3:21 PM ET: That something it appears was Carlos Zambrano himself, who said that he plans to retire after his contract expires in either 2012 or 2013 (option). In that case, his 8% turns into 0%, though you never know how serious someone is about retirement.

The Best of the Rest

Livan Hernandez is listed at 34 with over 150 wins, but I'm sure he's older. Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland are at good ages to pitch a lot more, but they aren't aces who will average 15+ a year for 6 years at least to get in the discussion. Josh Beckett has only had 3 season with 15+ wins and postseason success doesn't always translate to gaudy regular season numbers (see Schilling, Curt). Brandon Webb is too old to be at under 100 wins since he's 30 and only Randy Johnson was at that stage at 30 and Webb ain't no Randy Johnson. Finally, Jake Peavy has yet to string along a bunch of consistent seasons, going from 19 wins and a Cy Young in 2007 to 10 in 2008. As for pitchers like Zack Greinke, far too young to really know what's coming.


So while it certainly hard to think that anyone will win 300 again, there are a few pitchers out there that if they stay healthy, continue to put up 15+ win seasons and pitch for long time can reach this milestone. In other words, we will see another scene like Randy Johnson's yesterday; well actually, we'll see a scene of people actually caring about a milestone being set.