When the San Francisco Giants last won the World Series, they did it with a lot of players who weren't stars playing over their heads, such as Cody Ross, Andres Torres and a past his prime Edgar Renteria. In the mean time, Bruce Bochy had Pablo Sandoval coming off the bench and Barry Zito off the postseason roster despite Zito making $18.5 million that season. Fast forward two years later and not only are both men starting, they led the Giants to a Game 1 victory last night.
We have to start with the Panda, since he tied a World Series record hitting 3 HR's last night. He forever will have his name right along side Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson and Albert Pujols. That's some company I'd like to keep. The best part for Sandoval is that he hit two of them against Justin Verlander, who might be the best pitcher in baseball, but he has his issues with the San Francisco Giants. When Sandoval had a chance to hit a 4th HR and only came through with a single, it was a letdown, sarcastically speaking of course, but it demonstrated how big a night he had that a single is just ho-hum. Consider this, Sandoval had three ABs in the entire 2010 World Series; his first three this year were HR's.
Barry Zito didn't even have AB's or IP back in 2010. However, pitching struggles forced Zito to pitch in Game 5 of the NLCS and pitched a gem and was called on to try to match Verlander. Fortunately for the Giants, he didn't; he went 5.2 IP giving up only a run and striking out three. He also knocked in a run off Verlander with an opposite field hit to make it 5-0. Staying in the game was the goal with Barry Zito; him flourishing against guys like Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder makes it even better.
Zito and Sandoval weren't the only stories of Game 1. Tim Lincecum relieved Zito and utterly dominated over 2.1 IP. Marco Scutaro continued his surprising play with a couple more hits and Angel Pagan did the same with a couple doubles. And you can't mention Game 1 without mentioning Gregor Blanco's spectacular diving catches. I know though that the history books will remember Kung Fu Panda and Barry Zito and for two guys who were in San Francisco in 2010, but not really, that's who deserves to have the glory after this result.
Showing posts with label SF Giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SF Giants. Show all posts
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
World Series Preview: Alburquerque-Zito
Tonight, the World Series begins in San Francisco as the Giants will face the American League Pennant winners Detroit Tigers. And I thought the best way to prepare for the start of this series to provide an A-Z guide to everything that we will expect to see.
Al Alburquerque: Mike Francesa's favorite Tiger has to begin this list. Alex Avila might have more impact, but I'm pretty sure that Alburquerque will pitch in a big spot at some point.
Brandon Belt: Hit a HR in Game 7 and will probably be counted on a lot more than most people realize since the Tigers are full of RHP's in both the rotation and the bullpen. Will need the lefty Belt to hit well.
Miguel Cabrera: The likely MVP (I say that Mike Trout should win, but I digress) will be appearing in his second Fall Classic. It's easy to say that the Tigers will go as he goes, at least at the plate.
Doug Fister: One of the major reasons the Tigers are in the World Series is because of their dominant starting pitching as a whole. Now, Fister battled in his last start against the Yankees and probably shouldn't give the Giants opportunities to score early on him again.
Errors: Back in 2006, the Tigers were undone by some horrific defensive play when they lost to the Cardinals. This can't happen again this time around; unfortunately with Delmon Young playing the outfield in San Francisco, an already weak defensive team becomes weaker.
Prince Fielder: Fielder hasn't been dominant thus far in the postseason and if the Giants pitch around Cabrera, Fielder is going to have to make them pay for such a strategy.
Avisail Garcia: When given a chance, the youngster has been impactful. Likely will play when Barry Zito pitches. Of course, I have him on this list to point out that his name is pronounced with four syllables. Four syllables for a seven letter name. Seems like too much.
Hunter Pence: He will likely remain as Buster Posey's protection and he needs to do a better job of that. Had a rough series against St. Louis and it doesn't get easier against the big 4 righties on Detroit. Hopefully, Game 7 is also a sign of better play from him like it might be for Belt.
Omar Infante: Important in his role as a table setter for Detroit since he came over from the Marlins back in July. Main reason is that him reaching base almost guarantees a pitcher will face both Cabrera and Fielder in a given inning. This will need to continue.
Austin Jackson: Also important as a table setter, but unlike Infante, Jackson is more of a given in terms of effective hitting, even though he can be a strikeout machine. We can see some long games should the Giants fail to get the first two hitters of the Tigers lineup out.
Kung Fu Panda: In 2010, Pablo Sandoval only had three AB's in their World Series win. This time around, he's much more important, as demonstrated in the NLCS. He has driven in 6 runs in the last 5 games of that series and it's safe to say that the Giants are where they are because of Sandoval's hitting.
Jim Leyland: This season saw Leyland make his seventh appearance in the playoffs, but only his third World Series appearance. Except for leaving in Jose Valverde in Game 1, allowing Raul Ibanez to homer off him, every move made by the skipper is paying off. That includes his recent addition to Coke; Phil Coke that is in closing situations. Now the Tigers were in the same situation back in 2006; sweep the ALCS and wait a week while the NLCS goes seven. Then, they lost in five games. Let's see if Leyland does anything different to avoid the same fate.
Madison Bumgarner: What, expecting Matt Cain here? Now that Bumgarner is starting Game 2, he needs to be mentioned first. Also, because the Giants might be in a must-win situation should Game 1 unfold like most people expect it to.
New Matchup: Can you believe that this is the first time that the Tigers and the Giants are World Series foes? Considering the fact that both these teams have played in a number of World Series, the fact their paths haven't crossed is pretty surprising. Closest we came to a Tigers-Giants World Series was in 1908, when Fred Merkle's boner kept the Giants out of the World Series. In their place, the Cubs. Need I go on?
Octavio Dotel: He's looking to win the World Series for his second straight year. This is now his 13th team that he's played for and probably will look to do the MLB tour before its all said and done. Though if he wins again, then you might have to start picking the next team he plays with as World Series favorites.
Buster Posey: The likely NL MVP hasn't hit well this postseason; yet that hasn't stopped the Giants for reaching the World Series. At some point, he will need to start hitting if they are to beat the Tigers (though with this team, who know if that will be true). Fun fact: this matchup might be the first to feature both league MVP's since 1988.
Quinton Berry: He's only here because his name begins with the letter Q. Still, he plays an important role in left field and on the base paths since the Tigers lack overall team speed.
Sergio Romo: After years of seeing Tony fail in the playoffs, it's nice to finally see a Romo who can handle clutch situations. I kid of course, but not about Romo's play as the Giants closer. He represents the Giants biggest advantage over the Tigers: bullpen. Detroit hopes to avoid the bullpen as much as possible, while the Giants will go to it quickly if need be (Guillermo Mota doesn't qualify for this topic, nor should he ever qualify for any topic).
Sanchez and Scherzer: The pitchers the Tigers will have when the arrive back in Detroit could be huge if their strong play of late carries over. This is where the Tigers might be in a disadvantage on the mound (facing Vogelsong and Cain, the Giants two best), and more than likely, a split will be needed. It's also imperative that both men go deep in their games, avoid extra outs by the bullpen.
Tim Lincecum: While the Tigers starters worry no one in Detroit, the Giants have some issues beyond Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong. The fact that Lincecum continues to pitch poorly in starts, while pitching well from the bullpen appears to be the most annoying. It appears though that Bruce Bochy will leave The Freak in the bullpen, unless another awful Bumgarner performance occurs.
Umpiring: Here are your umpires for the World Series. Yes, you see that right, Country Joe West will be prominently involved. Don't say I didn't warn you. Knowing baseball, Fieldin Culbreth or Dan Issaogna will make an awful call at some point.
Justin Verlander: The best pitcher in baseball is tasked with continuing his terrific postseason and takes away the home-field advantage from the Giants in Game 1. I say this because it becomes a must-win for Detroit to steal the first game in order to have any chance to win the series.
Xavier Nady: Just kidding, but I'll use my X for the X Factor of the series: Marco Scutaro. He was the story in the NLCS from get the hard slide by Matt Holliday, to his MVP performance after hitting .500. The Giants won back in 2010 because of the exploits of Cody Ross and Edgar Renteria out of nowhere and they are back in the Fall Classic because of Scutaro. It's hard to suggest they'd lose if he continues his hot play.
Delmon Young: From LCS MVP to another. Young was rightfully the winner after driving in runs during each game against the Yankees. Unlike Scutaro, Young had this long layoff which could be harmful to his hot streak. If Prince Fielder starts hitting more, Young can be an afterthought, but Young comes up with runners on and needing to save rallies from dying, he'll have to be up to the task.
Barry Zito: He likely will start against Verlander in both Games 1 and 5. He pitches anything like Game 5 against St. Louis, and it would be such a boon for the Giants. It would also make his 7 year, $126 million contract from 2007 worth every penny (okay, not really).
Prediction: Giants in 7, continuing the zombie act for one last series.
Al Alburquerque: Mike Francesa's favorite Tiger has to begin this list. Alex Avila might have more impact, but I'm pretty sure that Alburquerque will pitch in a big spot at some point.
Brandon Belt: Hit a HR in Game 7 and will probably be counted on a lot more than most people realize since the Tigers are full of RHP's in both the rotation and the bullpen. Will need the lefty Belt to hit well.
Miguel Cabrera: The likely MVP (I say that Mike Trout should win, but I digress) will be appearing in his second Fall Classic. It's easy to say that the Tigers will go as he goes, at least at the plate.
Doug Fister: One of the major reasons the Tigers are in the World Series is because of their dominant starting pitching as a whole. Now, Fister battled in his last start against the Yankees and probably shouldn't give the Giants opportunities to score early on him again.
Errors: Back in 2006, the Tigers were undone by some horrific defensive play when they lost to the Cardinals. This can't happen again this time around; unfortunately with Delmon Young playing the outfield in San Francisco, an already weak defensive team becomes weaker.
Prince Fielder: Fielder hasn't been dominant thus far in the postseason and if the Giants pitch around Cabrera, Fielder is going to have to make them pay for such a strategy.
Avisail Garcia: When given a chance, the youngster has been impactful. Likely will play when Barry Zito pitches. Of course, I have him on this list to point out that his name is pronounced with four syllables. Four syllables for a seven letter name. Seems like too much.
Hunter Pence: He will likely remain as Buster Posey's protection and he needs to do a better job of that. Had a rough series against St. Louis and it doesn't get easier against the big 4 righties on Detroit. Hopefully, Game 7 is also a sign of better play from him like it might be for Belt.
Omar Infante: Important in his role as a table setter for Detroit since he came over from the Marlins back in July. Main reason is that him reaching base almost guarantees a pitcher will face both Cabrera and Fielder in a given inning. This will need to continue.
Austin Jackson: Also important as a table setter, but unlike Infante, Jackson is more of a given in terms of effective hitting, even though he can be a strikeout machine. We can see some long games should the Giants fail to get the first two hitters of the Tigers lineup out.
Kung Fu Panda: In 2010, Pablo Sandoval only had three AB's in their World Series win. This time around, he's much more important, as demonstrated in the NLCS. He has driven in 6 runs in the last 5 games of that series and it's safe to say that the Giants are where they are because of Sandoval's hitting.
Jim Leyland: This season saw Leyland make his seventh appearance in the playoffs, but only his third World Series appearance. Except for leaving in Jose Valverde in Game 1, allowing Raul Ibanez to homer off him, every move made by the skipper is paying off. That includes his recent addition to Coke; Phil Coke that is in closing situations. Now the Tigers were in the same situation back in 2006; sweep the ALCS and wait a week while the NLCS goes seven. Then, they lost in five games. Let's see if Leyland does anything different to avoid the same fate.
Madison Bumgarner: What, expecting Matt Cain here? Now that Bumgarner is starting Game 2, he needs to be mentioned first. Also, because the Giants might be in a must-win situation should Game 1 unfold like most people expect it to.
New Matchup: Can you believe that this is the first time that the Tigers and the Giants are World Series foes? Considering the fact that both these teams have played in a number of World Series, the fact their paths haven't crossed is pretty surprising. Closest we came to a Tigers-Giants World Series was in 1908, when Fred Merkle's boner kept the Giants out of the World Series. In their place, the Cubs. Need I go on?
Octavio Dotel: He's looking to win the World Series for his second straight year. This is now his 13th team that he's played for and probably will look to do the MLB tour before its all said and done. Though if he wins again, then you might have to start picking the next team he plays with as World Series favorites.
Buster Posey: The likely NL MVP hasn't hit well this postseason; yet that hasn't stopped the Giants for reaching the World Series. At some point, he will need to start hitting if they are to beat the Tigers (though with this team, who know if that will be true). Fun fact: this matchup might be the first to feature both league MVP's since 1988.
Quinton Berry: He's only here because his name begins with the letter Q. Still, he plays an important role in left field and on the base paths since the Tigers lack overall team speed.
Sergio Romo: After years of seeing Tony fail in the playoffs, it's nice to finally see a Romo who can handle clutch situations. I kid of course, but not about Romo's play as the Giants closer. He represents the Giants biggest advantage over the Tigers: bullpen. Detroit hopes to avoid the bullpen as much as possible, while the Giants will go to it quickly if need be (Guillermo Mota doesn't qualify for this topic, nor should he ever qualify for any topic).
Sanchez and Scherzer: The pitchers the Tigers will have when the arrive back in Detroit could be huge if their strong play of late carries over. This is where the Tigers might be in a disadvantage on the mound (facing Vogelsong and Cain, the Giants two best), and more than likely, a split will be needed. It's also imperative that both men go deep in their games, avoid extra outs by the bullpen.
Tim Lincecum: While the Tigers starters worry no one in Detroit, the Giants have some issues beyond Matt Cain and Ryan Vogelsong. The fact that Lincecum continues to pitch poorly in starts, while pitching well from the bullpen appears to be the most annoying. It appears though that Bruce Bochy will leave The Freak in the bullpen, unless another awful Bumgarner performance occurs.
Umpiring: Here are your umpires for the World Series. Yes, you see that right, Country Joe West will be prominently involved. Don't say I didn't warn you. Knowing baseball, Fieldin Culbreth or Dan Issaogna will make an awful call at some point.
Justin Verlander: The best pitcher in baseball is tasked with continuing his terrific postseason and takes away the home-field advantage from the Giants in Game 1. I say this because it becomes a must-win for Detroit to steal the first game in order to have any chance to win the series.
Xavier Nady: Just kidding, but I'll use my X for the X Factor of the series: Marco Scutaro. He was the story in the NLCS from get the hard slide by Matt Holliday, to his MVP performance after hitting .500. The Giants won back in 2010 because of the exploits of Cody Ross and Edgar Renteria out of nowhere and they are back in the Fall Classic because of Scutaro. It's hard to suggest they'd lose if he continues his hot play.
Delmon Young: From LCS MVP to another. Young was rightfully the winner after driving in runs during each game against the Yankees. Unlike Scutaro, Young had this long layoff which could be harmful to his hot streak. If Prince Fielder starts hitting more, Young can be an afterthought, but Young comes up with runners on and needing to save rallies from dying, he'll have to be up to the task.
Barry Zito: He likely will start against Verlander in both Games 1 and 5. He pitches anything like Game 5 against St. Louis, and it would be such a boon for the Giants. It would also make his 7 year, $126 million contract from 2007 worth every penny (okay, not really).
Prediction: Giants in 7, continuing the zombie act for one last series.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Ranking The LCS Game 7s
Last night, the San Francisco Giants jumped quickly on the St. Louis Cardinals to force Game 7 in the NLCS. Since both of these teams are just incapable of losing series, I expect tonight's game to last until February. Instead of piling on with everyone writing about this Game 7 and the nature of both teams that precludes them from losing do-or-die games, I figured to take a look back at all the Game 7s in LCS history since the format expanded to a best-of-seven in 1985.
Looking back, it turns out that the LCS Game 7 is as likely to be a dud than to be an epic contest. In the previous 14 seventh games, eight of them were won by 4+ runs. This tends to be when a pitching matchup seems completely skewed to one team over another (great examples: Oliver Perez and Jake Westbrook can call themselves Game 7 starters). This also tends to happen when the momentum of a series greatly swings in one direction, as six times a team rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win an LCS. Here's the list from worst to first.
14. 1996 NLCS: Braves 15, Cardinals 0
This is perhaps the greatest example of both momentum swinging greatly and a complete mismatch on the mound. No chance was Donovan Osbourne was beating Tom Glavine, especially when Glavine is hitting triples. This game was over after a 6-run first and capped a series which the Braves rallied back from a 3-1 deficit by outscoring the Cards 32-1 in three games.
13. 1986 ALCS: Red Sox 8, Angels 1
This is the AL version of the '96 Braves. The reason the Red Sox are ahead is a) 8-1 is closer than 15-0 and b) because of the epic Game 5 win to allow this to happen, which the Braves didn't do. Still, the Red Sox had all the momentum after that win in Anaheim and Roger Clemens during his Cy Young/MVP year against John Candelaria (who I didn't know was on the Angels, much less their Game 7 starter until I started researching this). Too easy for Boston.
12. 1987 NLCS: Cardinals 6, Giants 0
This doesn't apply to either of my earlier rules since this series was never 2-2 and Danny Cox vs Atlee Hammaker isn't that lopsided (I don't care if Cox was good for 1987, he's no Glavine/Clemens). Still, this was a one-sided shutout that was decided early when Jose Oquendo hit a 3-run HR in the 2nd inning to give the Redbirds a 4-0 lead. The fun fact of this series is that this was the last time that a player from the losing team won series MVP, as Jeffrey Leonard was the winner. While he did go 2 for 4 in Game 7, it wasn't enough for the Giants.
11. 1985 ALCS: Royals 6, Blue Jays 2
It was a promising matchup because of the starters; Bret Saberhagen vs Dave Stieb is among the best you could have had in the 1980s. Then Saberhagen was taken out after the 3rd inning and Stieb gave up a 3-run triple to Jim Sundberg in the 6th when it was 2-1 Royals. A base hit by Hal McRae after made it 6-1 Kansas City and they finished their first of two 3-1 series deficit rallies (both coming after losing Games 1 and 2).
10. 1988 NLCS: Dodgers 6, Mets 0
This game is only up to number 10 because of Orel Hershiser. This capped a dominant series for him, who pitched well enough to win Game 1 (Jay Howell lost that game for the Dodgers), well enough in Game 3 (again, bullpen), gets the save in Game 4 and goes the distance in Game 7, not allowing the Mets to have any chance at a rally. Dodgers scored all six runs in the first two innings as the Mets went with Ron Darling on normal rest, instead of Dwight Gooden on short rest and it cost them.
9. 1991 NLCS: Braves 4, Pirates 0
John Smoltz gained his reputation as a big game pitcher starting with this game. He pitches a complete game shutout, while Atlanta scored 3 in the first, most notably by Brian Hunter's 2-run HR. Hunter also added an RBI double. This probably should be lower in the list, but I give this points for Smoltz and for the Braves run of success beginning with this season and playoffs.
8. 2007 ALCS: Red Sox 11, Indians 2
Why would I put a nine run Boston win this high on the list? Because the game was 3-2 in the 7th inning. This was a series which the Red Sox rallied from 3-1 down to force Game 7 because of Josh Becket and J. D. Drew. The Red Sox scored a run in the first three innings, then the Indians countered with a run in both the 4th and 5th. In the 7th, Kenny Lofton reached second after a Julio Lugo error and Franklin Gutierrez a base hit to LF; only Lofton wasn't sent home and was stranded by Casey Blake's double play. After a Dustin Pedroia HR made it 5-2, Cleveland put the first two on in the 8th. That was when Jonathan Papelbon came in and retired the next three hitters. Boston piled on six runs in the bottom of the 8th, clinching the game in the process.
7. 2004 NLCS: Cardinals 5, Astros 2
Because the epic Yankees-Red Sox wars, this series will always be overlooked from 2003-04 (Cubs would never be overlooked). However, this series had walk-off HR wins by Jeff Kent and Jim Edmonds, while Carlos Beltran and Albert Pujols both had epic hitting performances. It came down to Roger Clemens vs Jeff Suppan and Suppan held his own, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) over 6 IP. With the Cards down 2-1, the bottom of the 6th swung the game as Pujols tied the game with a double off Clemens and Scott Rolen hit a 2-run HR right after. The Astros never threatened again, but would get their revenge the following year.
6. 2008 ALCS: Rays 3, Red Sox 1
The first ever postseason for the Tampa Bay Rays included a Game 7 which didn't have to happen if they would have held a 7-0 lead in Game 5. Boston came back to win that one in Fenway, then won a tough Game 6 to force a Game 7. The Red Sox were poised to win their 10th straight ALCS elimination game, especially after a 1st inning HR by Pedroia. That's when Matt Garza started to dominate, allowing only one more hit in 7+ IP. Tampa would begin to hit like they did all series, and took a 3-1 lead in the 8th. Boston had one last rally on the Rays bullpen when David Price came in to strikeout Drew with the bases load. Price finished it off and the Rays were World Series-bound.
5. 2003 NLCS: Marlins 9, Cubs 6
Nothing will be more memorable than the Bartman game and it seemed like the Cubs were finished after losing Game 6. Sure enough, Miguel Cabrera hit a 3-run HR in the 1st inning to put Florida up early. Chicago rallied though, the key plays being a Kerry Wood 2-run shot in the 3rd and Moises Alou 2-run homer, giving the Cubs a 5-3 lead. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, the Marlins scored in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings to make it 9-5 and held on to win. The Marlins went on to their second World Series win in six years while it's 104 years and counting for Chicago.
4. 2004 ALCS: Red Sox 10, Yankees 3
In terms of just as a competitive game, this game belongs much lower. However, I can't ignore the history that was made when the Red Sox won Game 7 in 2004 over the Yankees, becoming the first team to win a series down 0-3. Unlike Games 4-6, which were some of the tightest played baseball games any series ever saw, this was over early as David Ortiz hit a two-run HR in the first, then a Johnny Damon grand slam put this out of reach. Derek Lowe pitch six innings of one run baseball despite pitching on two days rest. Boston would win the World Series in a sweep and forever alter the course of baseball history.
3. 2006 NLCS: Cardinals 3, Mets 1
We finally reach the best of the best in terms of legendary LCS Game 7's. The fact that Mets-Cards from 2006 would be among this group is pretty shocking. This was a well-pitched game between Oliver Perez and Jeff Suppan (the odds of which being one billion to one). This had a catch by Endy Chavez which if it's not the best catch in MLB history, it's not laughable to suggest it (kudos for doubling up Jim Edmonds). Finally, you reach the ninth and Yadier Molina hits a 2-run HR to give the Cards a 3-1 lead, something no one envisioned would happen back then. The Mets loaded the bases in the bottom half, only to see Adam Wainwright to throw a great pitch to freeze Carlos Beltran to win the series. This really was a remarkable game and no one gives it credit for being pretty incredible.
2. 1992 NLCS: Braves 3, Pirates 2
Everyone knows this game. Everyone knows the last play. Some backstory: the Braves were ahead 3-1 over the Pirates, then Pittsburgh won a couple to force Game 7 which was played in Atlanta. John Smoltz started for the Braves like he did the year before, but this time the Pirates got to him and scored a couple. Doug Drabek dominated over eight innings and came out to start the ninth. After a Terry Pendleton double, Jose Lind botched a David Justice ground ball, making it 1st and 3rd. Sid Bream walked and Drabek was done with the bases loaded. The Braves scored on a sac fly and after two batters, Francisco Cabrera came up with two outs and the bases loaded. What happened next was one of the iconic plays in baseball history: Cabrera base hit which you see Sid Bream chug home and slide safely just short of the tag at the plate. The Braves were back in the World Series, while the Pirates (still) haven't finished a season over .500 (though they are coming close to ending that).
1. 2003 ALCS: Yankees 6, Red Sox 5
Normally I'd put the play that ends with a play at the plate ahead of one with a walk-off HR because the play at the plate is the best play in baseball. However, this game has to trump Braves-Pirates because of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, the matchup between Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez and the ebb and flow of this game. Boston was winning all game long as Trot Nixon and Kevin Millar both homered and sent Clemens out early. Jason Giambi kept the Yanks close with a couple solo HR's as Pedro pitched very well in the first seven innings. A David Ortiz solo HR made it 5-2 and the Red Sox were set for the World Series. Then the Yankees rallied, and manager Grady Little made the fateful decision to leave Pedro as the Yankees poured on three runs to tie the game at 5. After Mariano Rivera pitched three scoreless innings, Aaron Boone won it on the first pitch in the bottom on the 11th with a HR.
It would be pretty difficult for tonight's Cardinals-Giants Game 7 to reach Aaron Boone status, but with the way both teams play in do-or-die games, making it into the top-5 won't be that difficult. Let's hope we're watching a memorable one, or it will be easy to switch to football or the debate.
CORRECTION: The early version of this post said that Brian Harper homered and drove in 3 runs in Game 7 of the 1991 NLCS. It was actually Brian Hunter.
Looking back, it turns out that the LCS Game 7 is as likely to be a dud than to be an epic contest. In the previous 14 seventh games, eight of them were won by 4+ runs. This tends to be when a pitching matchup seems completely skewed to one team over another (great examples: Oliver Perez and Jake Westbrook can call themselves Game 7 starters). This also tends to happen when the momentum of a series greatly swings in one direction, as six times a team rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win an LCS. Here's the list from worst to first.
14. 1996 NLCS: Braves 15, Cardinals 0
This is perhaps the greatest example of both momentum swinging greatly and a complete mismatch on the mound. No chance was Donovan Osbourne was beating Tom Glavine, especially when Glavine is hitting triples. This game was over after a 6-run first and capped a series which the Braves rallied back from a 3-1 deficit by outscoring the Cards 32-1 in three games.
13. 1986 ALCS: Red Sox 8, Angels 1
This is the AL version of the '96 Braves. The reason the Red Sox are ahead is a) 8-1 is closer than 15-0 and b) because of the epic Game 5 win to allow this to happen, which the Braves didn't do. Still, the Red Sox had all the momentum after that win in Anaheim and Roger Clemens during his Cy Young/MVP year against John Candelaria (who I didn't know was on the Angels, much less their Game 7 starter until I started researching this). Too easy for Boston.
12. 1987 NLCS: Cardinals 6, Giants 0
This doesn't apply to either of my earlier rules since this series was never 2-2 and Danny Cox vs Atlee Hammaker isn't that lopsided (I don't care if Cox was good for 1987, he's no Glavine/Clemens). Still, this was a one-sided shutout that was decided early when Jose Oquendo hit a 3-run HR in the 2nd inning to give the Redbirds a 4-0 lead. The fun fact of this series is that this was the last time that a player from the losing team won series MVP, as Jeffrey Leonard was the winner. While he did go 2 for 4 in Game 7, it wasn't enough for the Giants.
11. 1985 ALCS: Royals 6, Blue Jays 2
It was a promising matchup because of the starters; Bret Saberhagen vs Dave Stieb is among the best you could have had in the 1980s. Then Saberhagen was taken out after the 3rd inning and Stieb gave up a 3-run triple to Jim Sundberg in the 6th when it was 2-1 Royals. A base hit by Hal McRae after made it 6-1 Kansas City and they finished their first of two 3-1 series deficit rallies (both coming after losing Games 1 and 2).
10. 1988 NLCS: Dodgers 6, Mets 0
This game is only up to number 10 because of Orel Hershiser. This capped a dominant series for him, who pitched well enough to win Game 1 (Jay Howell lost that game for the Dodgers), well enough in Game 3 (again, bullpen), gets the save in Game 4 and goes the distance in Game 7, not allowing the Mets to have any chance at a rally. Dodgers scored all six runs in the first two innings as the Mets went with Ron Darling on normal rest, instead of Dwight Gooden on short rest and it cost them.
9. 1991 NLCS: Braves 4, Pirates 0
John Smoltz gained his reputation as a big game pitcher starting with this game. He pitches a complete game shutout, while Atlanta scored 3 in the first, most notably by Brian Hunter's 2-run HR. Hunter also added an RBI double. This probably should be lower in the list, but I give this points for Smoltz and for the Braves run of success beginning with this season and playoffs.
8. 2007 ALCS: Red Sox 11, Indians 2
Why would I put a nine run Boston win this high on the list? Because the game was 3-2 in the 7th inning. This was a series which the Red Sox rallied from 3-1 down to force Game 7 because of Josh Becket and J. D. Drew. The Red Sox scored a run in the first three innings, then the Indians countered with a run in both the 4th and 5th. In the 7th, Kenny Lofton reached second after a Julio Lugo error and Franklin Gutierrez a base hit to LF; only Lofton wasn't sent home and was stranded by Casey Blake's double play. After a Dustin Pedroia HR made it 5-2, Cleveland put the first two on in the 8th. That was when Jonathan Papelbon came in and retired the next three hitters. Boston piled on six runs in the bottom of the 8th, clinching the game in the process.
7. 2004 NLCS: Cardinals 5, Astros 2
Because the epic Yankees-Red Sox wars, this series will always be overlooked from 2003-04 (Cubs would never be overlooked). However, this series had walk-off HR wins by Jeff Kent and Jim Edmonds, while Carlos Beltran and Albert Pujols both had epic hitting performances. It came down to Roger Clemens vs Jeff Suppan and Suppan held his own, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) over 6 IP. With the Cards down 2-1, the bottom of the 6th swung the game as Pujols tied the game with a double off Clemens and Scott Rolen hit a 2-run HR right after. The Astros never threatened again, but would get their revenge the following year.
6. 2008 ALCS: Rays 3, Red Sox 1
The first ever postseason for the Tampa Bay Rays included a Game 7 which didn't have to happen if they would have held a 7-0 lead in Game 5. Boston came back to win that one in Fenway, then won a tough Game 6 to force a Game 7. The Red Sox were poised to win their 10th straight ALCS elimination game, especially after a 1st inning HR by Pedroia. That's when Matt Garza started to dominate, allowing only one more hit in 7+ IP. Tampa would begin to hit like they did all series, and took a 3-1 lead in the 8th. Boston had one last rally on the Rays bullpen when David Price came in to strikeout Drew with the bases load. Price finished it off and the Rays were World Series-bound.
5. 2003 NLCS: Marlins 9, Cubs 6
Nothing will be more memorable than the Bartman game and it seemed like the Cubs were finished after losing Game 6. Sure enough, Miguel Cabrera hit a 3-run HR in the 1st inning to put Florida up early. Chicago rallied though, the key plays being a Kerry Wood 2-run shot in the 3rd and Moises Alou 2-run homer, giving the Cubs a 5-3 lead. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, the Marlins scored in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings to make it 9-5 and held on to win. The Marlins went on to their second World Series win in six years while it's 104 years and counting for Chicago.
4. 2004 ALCS: Red Sox 10, Yankees 3
In terms of just as a competitive game, this game belongs much lower. However, I can't ignore the history that was made when the Red Sox won Game 7 in 2004 over the Yankees, becoming the first team to win a series down 0-3. Unlike Games 4-6, which were some of the tightest played baseball games any series ever saw, this was over early as David Ortiz hit a two-run HR in the first, then a Johnny Damon grand slam put this out of reach. Derek Lowe pitch six innings of one run baseball despite pitching on two days rest. Boston would win the World Series in a sweep and forever alter the course of baseball history.
3. 2006 NLCS: Cardinals 3, Mets 1
We finally reach the best of the best in terms of legendary LCS Game 7's. The fact that Mets-Cards from 2006 would be among this group is pretty shocking. This was a well-pitched game between Oliver Perez and Jeff Suppan (the odds of which being one billion to one). This had a catch by Endy Chavez which if it's not the best catch in MLB history, it's not laughable to suggest it (kudos for doubling up Jim Edmonds). Finally, you reach the ninth and Yadier Molina hits a 2-run HR to give the Cards a 3-1 lead, something no one envisioned would happen back then. The Mets loaded the bases in the bottom half, only to see Adam Wainwright to throw a great pitch to freeze Carlos Beltran to win the series. This really was a remarkable game and no one gives it credit for being pretty incredible.
2. 1992 NLCS: Braves 3, Pirates 2
Everyone knows this game. Everyone knows the last play. Some backstory: the Braves were ahead 3-1 over the Pirates, then Pittsburgh won a couple to force Game 7 which was played in Atlanta. John Smoltz started for the Braves like he did the year before, but this time the Pirates got to him and scored a couple. Doug Drabek dominated over eight innings and came out to start the ninth. After a Terry Pendleton double, Jose Lind botched a David Justice ground ball, making it 1st and 3rd. Sid Bream walked and Drabek was done with the bases loaded. The Braves scored on a sac fly and after two batters, Francisco Cabrera came up with two outs and the bases loaded. What happened next was one of the iconic plays in baseball history: Cabrera base hit which you see Sid Bream chug home and slide safely just short of the tag at the plate. The Braves were back in the World Series, while the Pirates (still) haven't finished a season over .500 (though they are coming close to ending that).
1. 2003 ALCS: Yankees 6, Red Sox 5
Normally I'd put the play that ends with a play at the plate ahead of one with a walk-off HR because the play at the plate is the best play in baseball. However, this game has to trump Braves-Pirates because of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, the matchup between Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez and the ebb and flow of this game. Boston was winning all game long as Trot Nixon and Kevin Millar both homered and sent Clemens out early. Jason Giambi kept the Yanks close with a couple solo HR's as Pedro pitched very well in the first seven innings. A David Ortiz solo HR made it 5-2 and the Red Sox were set for the World Series. Then the Yankees rallied, and manager Grady Little made the fateful decision to leave Pedro as the Yankees poured on three runs to tie the game at 5. After Mariano Rivera pitched three scoreless innings, Aaron Boone won it on the first pitch in the bottom on the 11th with a HR.
It would be pretty difficult for tonight's Cardinals-Giants Game 7 to reach Aaron Boone status, but with the way both teams play in do-or-die games, making it into the top-5 won't be that difficult. Let's hope we're watching a memorable one, or it will be easy to switch to football or the debate.
CORRECTION: The early version of this post said that Brian Harper homered and drove in 3 runs in Game 7 of the 1991 NLCS. It was actually Brian Hunter.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Cards/Giants Rain Delay Angers X Factor Fans
Game 3 of the NLCS between the Cardinals and the Giants was stopped in the bottom of the 7th because of a giant rain storm. This meant that Fox's coverage of the series would conflict directly with their primetime programming, which in tonight's case was The X Factor. Fox ended up showing an hour and 15 minutes of The X Factor, with a full episode of Ben and Kate before and The Mindy Project after until they were ready to go back to St. Louis. Obviously, this upset some passionate fans of Simon Cowell's show, so I took some of the best tweets involving those who were among the most upset and my thoughts on their tweets.
Fox has obligations to its contract to show MLB playoff games.
There are some people in St. Louis and San Francisco who beg to differ, as well as those who like baseball.
I know you do, but again, plenty of people do care about baseball (granted X Factor probably has more).
I never watched The X Factor before, so I have no idea.
Canadians are just as confused as Americans to their TV schedule.
Baseball's a live sport, X Factor is taped. Fox pays MLB billions to show it. Baseball wins.
I'm sure Fox will get over it.
I'm sorry you feel that way.
That's a little extreme. There are better situations that call for Mayan references than this.
This is something that most baseball fans will agree with; I'll grant you that.
I think the baseball players will be fine. Sorry to break it to you.
Being you work in the business, you should know that big sporting events will preempt regular coverage on your network. Besides, ABC would rather you watch Modern Family than X Factor.
As hard as your non-existant dick?
And on that note, enjoy the rest of the game.
Stupid baseball! I want to watch #XFACTOR
— kristin whitley (@kristin_whitley) October 18, 2012
Fox has obligations to its contract to show MLB playoff games.
NO ONE FUCKING CARES ABOUT THE RAIN DELAYED BASEBALL GAME! #XFACTOR
— Deanna Hanlon (@1d_eanna) October 18, 2012
There are some people in St. Louis and San Francisco who beg to differ, as well as those who like baseball.
UGH WHO CARES ABOUT BASEBALL. I WANT TO WATCH THE X FACTORRRRRRRRR #xfactor
— Justine Dexter ∞ (@Vas_Happenin1D_) October 18, 2012
I know you do, but again, plenty of people do care about baseball (granted X Factor probably has more).
Is it just me our is this not the #xfactor
— Barry~ (@sayhi_tori) October 18, 2012
I never watched The X Factor before, so I have no idea.
Why is CSI on all the channels that X factor is supposed to be on? #xfactor #CSI #starchoice #ctv
— Andrew Richards (@Richards_24) October 18, 2012
Canadians are just as confused as Americans to their TV schedule.
R U kidding me @foxbroadcasting You’re not gonna show X-Factor cause of a STUPID baseball playoff game rain delay? Baseball BLOWS. #xfactor
— Diego Balbuena (@diegob1975) October 18, 2012
Baseball's a live sport, X Factor is taped. Fox pays MLB billions to show it. Baseball wins.
I hope that the people in charge of the baseball game know they just infuriated every #xfactor watchin teen in the universe,
— Brittney Stranges (@BrittneyMusic6) October 18, 2012
I'm sure Fox will get over it.
Baseball is the enemy!!! #xfactor
— Samantha (@SmammySmoo) October 18, 2012
I'm sorry you feel that way.
Guysssssss this is a sign the world is going to end soon #xfactor
— Kaitlyn † (@akakatyful) October 18, 2012
That's a little extreme. There are better situations that call for Mayan references than this.
worst part of no #xfactor...having to see AJ Pierzynski
— Cassandra J (@Midge_08) October 18, 2012
This is something that most baseball fans will agree with; I'll grant you that.
FUCK YOU. BASEBALL. hope you all slip and crack your heads while running to the damn base. you fucking bat swinging ass holes.
— Swaggot (@BryanPerf) October 18, 2012
I think the baseball players will be fine. Sorry to break it to you.
Are you kidding me Fox? #XFactor ends in the middle of an episode? I can imagine the calls I'd get if ABC did that.
— Jaime Thies (@jaimethies) October 18, 2012
Being you work in the business, you should know that big sporting events will preempt regular coverage on your network. Besides, ABC would rather you watch Modern Family than X Factor.
Baseball... You can suck my non-existant dick. I just want to watch #xfactorWhy is this so damn hard?!
— Alexandra Mendoza (@Alexandra020897) October 18, 2012
As hard as your non-existant dick?
And on that note, enjoy the rest of the game.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Worst Collapses Ever
As any baseball fan knows, the Boston Red Sox are in need of someone to give them the Heimlich. They have lost again tonight, leaving them a 2.5 game lead in the AL Wild Card over the LA Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays. They have company in the choking department as the Atlanta Braves now lead the St. Louis Cardinals by only 1.5 games, with the San Francisco Giants only down 3.5 games. As we watch both teams unravel and see if either of them can salvage their seasons' and reach postseason play, let's look back at all the history of collapses, with a twist. I'm going to measure all the times a team has blow a huge lead and determine how much of the loss was because of a comeback by 2nd place or a choke by 1st place. Let's get started.
1964 Philadelphia Phillies: Remains as the holy grail of baseball chokes. Up 6.5 games with 12 games to play, they lose 10 games in a row to cost themselves the pennant. It was that inexplicable, even the World Series programs for the 1964 World Series were set. Choke-O-Meter: 10
1951 Brooklyn Dodgers: I never blame the Dodgers for losing this one. The reason, if the Giants go 32-15 in their last 47 games, Brooklyn still makes the World Series easily. They were an ordinary 27-24 down the stretch, but not bad enough to lose, except the 2nd place Giants finished 39-8 to reach the World Series, including the win in the 3 game playoff. Choke-O-Meter: 4 (for giving up "The Shot Heard Round The World")
1962 Los Angeles Dodgers: Not nearly as famous as '51, but in my eyes, more of a choke by the Dodgers here. Leads to another 3 game playoff which they lose to the Giants. The reason why the 3 game playoff takes place is because the Dodgers finished the year 3-10 after a 7 game winning streak seemingly won the pennant for them. Choke-O-Meter: 7 (points taken off because their lead was only 4 games before the downturn).
1969 Chicago Cubs: The Cubs were up 9 on August 16 over the surprising Mets. Then, the Mets finished with a 36-11 surge, while the Cubs slumped to a 17-26 finish and is a symbol of the 100 years of futility of the franchise. Choke-O-Meter: 7 (yes, the Mets played great, but the Cubs could of at least stayed alive until the final weekend had they not choked).
1978 Boston Red Sox: Falls into the '51 Dodgers category as they were done in by a hard-charging team, rather than their own ineptitude. The thing no one remembers is that the Yankees were in 4th place when they were down by 14 games. Lost 14 of 17 to fall out of 1st place, then won 12 of 14 to force the famous one game playoff. Choke-O-Meter: 5
1987 Toronto Blue Jays: They were riding high after a 7 game winning streak, the last 3 against the 2nd-place Tigers to take a 3.5 game lead in the AL East. Then they lost all 7 of their final games, capped by a 3-game sweep by those very same Tigers. Combined with their loss in the 1985 ALCS after leading 3-1, they earned the label as "chokers" until they finally won in 1992. Choke-O-Meter: 8 (Loses 2 points because they never held a big lead, despite the epic finish).
1993 San Francisco Giants: Very much like the Red Sox in particular, because the Braves caught them and the Giants needed to rally. San Fran finished the year 38-27 after reaching a 10 game lead out West, while the Braves soared to 49-16 after trading for Fred McGriff. While they did play well, the Giants were hurt by an 8-game losing streak which knocked them out of 1st. Choke-O-Meter: 5 (followed the losing streak by winning 14 0f 17 at the end).
1995 California Angels: This team peaked with an 11 game lead on August 9th, then everything went wrong. The Angels slumped badly for a month and a half, finishing 18-31 and couldn't overcome the Mariners 30-19 finish and lost in a one game playoff. It never gets the attention of the Dodgers or Yankees, but this I believe is the worst of the mid-August collapses because bad play opened the door, not super play by 2nd place. Choke-O-Meter: 9 (avoids 10 because they won 5 of 6 to force that playoff).
2007 New York Mets: The Mets were swept in a memorable series to the Phillies that cut their NL East lead to 2 games on August 30th. They won 10 of their next 12 and brought their lead back to 7. Then, they proceed to finish 5-12, while the Phillies won 13 of 17 to win the East and signal a change in fortune in both teams. The Phillies suddenly became the class of the NL, while the Mets became the class clowns of the league. Choke-O-Meter: 9 (and the effects are still felt).
2009 Detroit Tigers: The Tigers were sailing to the playoffs, and led the AL Central by 7 games on Sept 6th. Then, the Twins rode a 18-8 finish into a one-game playoff, as the Tigers finished 11-15. What puts them here is they were up 3 games with 4 games left. They lose the final game of a series with the Twins, then lose the first two to the White Sox, before salvaging a playoff with a win on last day (a game which Justin Verlander needed to pitch because they were tied). Choke-O-Meter: 6
Just so you know, both the Red Sox and Braves easily reach a 7 on the choke scale, and the Red Sox scale might well be 9 if they finish this collapse through to the end. Should be a fun final week of baseball ahead, something I didn't think would happen.
1964 Philadelphia Phillies: Remains as the holy grail of baseball chokes. Up 6.5 games with 12 games to play, they lose 10 games in a row to cost themselves the pennant. It was that inexplicable, even the World Series programs for the 1964 World Series were set. Choke-O-Meter: 10
1951 Brooklyn Dodgers: I never blame the Dodgers for losing this one. The reason, if the Giants go 32-15 in their last 47 games, Brooklyn still makes the World Series easily. They were an ordinary 27-24 down the stretch, but not bad enough to lose, except the 2nd place Giants finished 39-8 to reach the World Series, including the win in the 3 game playoff. Choke-O-Meter: 4 (for giving up "The Shot Heard Round The World")
1962 Los Angeles Dodgers: Not nearly as famous as '51, but in my eyes, more of a choke by the Dodgers here. Leads to another 3 game playoff which they lose to the Giants. The reason why the 3 game playoff takes place is because the Dodgers finished the year 3-10 after a 7 game winning streak seemingly won the pennant for them. Choke-O-Meter: 7 (points taken off because their lead was only 4 games before the downturn).
1969 Chicago Cubs: The Cubs were up 9 on August 16 over the surprising Mets. Then, the Mets finished with a 36-11 surge, while the Cubs slumped to a 17-26 finish and is a symbol of the 100 years of futility of the franchise. Choke-O-Meter: 7 (yes, the Mets played great, but the Cubs could of at least stayed alive until the final weekend had they not choked).
1978 Boston Red Sox: Falls into the '51 Dodgers category as they were done in by a hard-charging team, rather than their own ineptitude. The thing no one remembers is that the Yankees were in 4th place when they were down by 14 games. Lost 14 of 17 to fall out of 1st place, then won 12 of 14 to force the famous one game playoff. Choke-O-Meter: 5
1987 Toronto Blue Jays: They were riding high after a 7 game winning streak, the last 3 against the 2nd-place Tigers to take a 3.5 game lead in the AL East. Then they lost all 7 of their final games, capped by a 3-game sweep by those very same Tigers. Combined with their loss in the 1985 ALCS after leading 3-1, they earned the label as "chokers" until they finally won in 1992. Choke-O-Meter: 8 (Loses 2 points because they never held a big lead, despite the epic finish).
1993 San Francisco Giants: Very much like the Red Sox in particular, because the Braves caught them and the Giants needed to rally. San Fran finished the year 38-27 after reaching a 10 game lead out West, while the Braves soared to 49-16 after trading for Fred McGriff. While they did play well, the Giants were hurt by an 8-game losing streak which knocked them out of 1st. Choke-O-Meter: 5 (followed the losing streak by winning 14 0f 17 at the end).
1995 California Angels: This team peaked with an 11 game lead on August 9th, then everything went wrong. The Angels slumped badly for a month and a half, finishing 18-31 and couldn't overcome the Mariners 30-19 finish and lost in a one game playoff. It never gets the attention of the Dodgers or Yankees, but this I believe is the worst of the mid-August collapses because bad play opened the door, not super play by 2nd place. Choke-O-Meter: 9 (avoids 10 because they won 5 of 6 to force that playoff).
2007 New York Mets: The Mets were swept in a memorable series to the Phillies that cut their NL East lead to 2 games on August 30th. They won 10 of their next 12 and brought their lead back to 7. Then, they proceed to finish 5-12, while the Phillies won 13 of 17 to win the East and signal a change in fortune in both teams. The Phillies suddenly became the class of the NL, while the Mets became the class clowns of the league. Choke-O-Meter: 9 (and the effects are still felt).
2009 Detroit Tigers: The Tigers were sailing to the playoffs, and led the AL Central by 7 games on Sept 6th. Then, the Twins rode a 18-8 finish into a one-game playoff, as the Tigers finished 11-15. What puts them here is they were up 3 games with 4 games left. They lose the final game of a series with the Twins, then lose the first two to the White Sox, before salvaging a playoff with a win on last day (a game which Justin Verlander needed to pitch because they were tied). Choke-O-Meter: 6
Just so you know, both the Red Sox and Braves easily reach a 7 on the choke scale, and the Red Sox scale might well be 9 if they finish this collapse through to the end. Should be a fun final week of baseball ahead, something I didn't think would happen.
Sunday, July 3, 2011
What Tirade Was Better?
Friday night, you have Brian Wilson, after blowing a save in the eighth inning and giving up a bases loaded single to Brandon Inge after the Giants regained the lead in the top of the ninth, gave us this reaction. Apparently, Gatorade didn't Fear the Beard and this is what happens when you don't. (video courtesy of mlb.com)
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were trying to keep their game with the Phillies yesterday at a 1-run deficit as Jon Rauch had a 3-2 pitch called a ball. After the ensuing run scores, Rauch loses it. (tirade begins at 2:10 of the video, hope MLB doesn't pull this video off YouTube before you get to watch it)
So the question, which was better? As much as I love Brian Wilson and all he does, beating up Gatorade coolers have been happening since Paul O'Neill was in the league. When do you see a player the size of Rauch have to be restrained? And watching the buttons on his jersey pop off, priceless. Also, don't forget manager John Farrell was also ejected from the game. I'd have to give Rauch the edge on the better tirade.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were trying to keep their game with the Phillies yesterday at a 1-run deficit as Jon Rauch had a 3-2 pitch called a ball. After the ensuing run scores, Rauch loses it. (tirade begins at 2:10 of the video, hope MLB doesn't pull this video off YouTube before you get to watch it)
So the question, which was better? As much as I love Brian Wilson and all he does, beating up Gatorade coolers have been happening since Paul O'Neill was in the league. When do you see a player the size of Rauch have to be restrained? And watching the buttons on his jersey pop off, priceless. Also, don't forget manager John Farrell was also ejected from the game. I'd have to give Rauch the edge on the better tirade.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
MLB Preview
Earlier than normal and without the National Championship game as the finale of the day, the 2011 MLB season begins today. This season begins off the heels of an offseason which was crazier than expected. Particularly, the moves by the Red Sox and Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke moving were the biggest stories. However, the hot stove has been turned off and its back to diamond where every team (yes, even the Pirates) are in first place on Opening Day, and despite the bad weather here in NYC, you can feel grass is about to grow and spring is coming. It's also time for another preview post (I know it seems like all I do are preview posts anymore) so let's get to it before the first pitch.
We begin in the reigning toughest division in baseball, and the likely toughest for the rest of time in the AL East. You know a division is tough when the fifth-place team can realistically win another division. Baltimore and Toronto are interesting because they are up-and-coming; both teams can hit well and they have young pitching that if they reach potential, could win about 85-90 games. Even that, however, wouldn't mean the playoffs for both. Tampa lost Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and many others, but they still have Evan Longoria and David Price and with good years from Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and B.J. Upton, they can easily go back to the playoffs. However, I don't believe their bullpen without Soriano and Joaquin Benoit can establish themselves good enough to pass the Yankees and Red Sox. Both teams will make the playoffs, Josh Beckett would be the key if the Red Sox win the division or the Yankees. If Beckett's can bounce back to his best, then the Red Sox advantage in the rotation is pronounced over the Yankees. If not, then the rotations are a wash, with maybe a slight edge for Boston. I think the Red Sox win it, only because the Yankees might struggle early with the rotation and whatever trade they make won't swing the division, but solidify the wild card.
The AL Central once again has Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago as their contenders as Cleveland and Kansas City continue the rebuild. The Royals are really close to being a good team, as their best in baseball farm system continues to grow up. It won't be this year they compete for the playoffs, but in 2012 or 2013, they will. I think they hold off the Indians in the battle for last place, as Cleveland is a little behind the rebuild than the Royals (meaning Orlando Cabrera is traded to a contender by July 31). As for the contenders, I'm not sold on either the Tigers or White Sox to overtake the Twins. Chicago always seems to wear down over the year under Ozzie Guillen's managing, while the Tigers don't seem to have the rotation capable of winning the division. I know the Twins lost some major bullpen guys, but if Joe Nathan comes back to his All-Star form, that negates the loss. It also helps to have Justin Morneau back in the lineup, hopefully he can have a season which he's healthy enough for the playoffs, would be important if it's the Yankees they play again.
Last year was a change for the AL West as the Angels went by the wayside and the Rangers won the division and the league. This year, both team look to stagnate a little, opening the door for a surprise winner. Even though the Mariners seem to do good in odd numbered years, they won't win this year. They could settle for another Cy Young for King Felix (better than training him). I look to Oakland as the best team in the West as they have the best rotation (and had it last year) and with Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui signing there, they have a better offense (of course, who knows with that ballpark). Anaheim is lacking in both offense and pitching to compete, despite Mike Scioscia's ability to manage. As for Texas, they will compete with Oakland to the end, but I must say, not getting Cliff Lee to resign is the difference for this team.
On to the NL, starting in the East where the Philly Phour reside. Despite the early season injuries, the Phillies really shouldn't miss the playoffs; if they do, it's an embarrassment. Speaking of embarrassment, the Mets should be the worst team in the division. I don't see how they pitch well, even in Citi Field, which will also negate the offense. Washington will be fourth, but they won't be any good until we know how Stephen Strasburg responds to Tommy John surgery, as well as when Bryce Harper moves to the majors. Florida is probably a year away from being a legitimate contender as the pitching behind Josh Johnson continues to develop more consistency and the lineup does as well, probably a good year in the new ballpark for them in 2012. The Braves will win the wild card as they are improved from last year. The pitching is still there (unless Derek Lowe comes back down) and more importantly, they will hit better with Dan Uggla and potential Rookie of the Year Freddie Freeman.
Probably the division that has the most potential contenders is the NL Central with Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Chicago and yes, St. Louis who can realistically win. I always think the Cards can compete because of Tony La Russa, Dave Duncan and Albert Pujols (even with the impending free agency). The Cubs are improved with Matt Garza and hope to have a motivated Carlos Pena who's on a one-year deal. Add Starlin Castro, Aramis Ramirez and Marlon Byrd and the lineup is good. Still think they fall short of the division, trailing both the Brewers and Reds. The Reds still have the balanced offense from last year and a dominant bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and Francisco Cordero at the back end. The Brewers offense is better than Cincy's and with Greinke and Shaun Marcum, they should have enough to win the division (and they better, they put too much into this season). No need to discuss the Astros or the Pirates, both will struggle, though Houston's closer to contention because of pitching.
Last but not least, the division of the defending World Series winners, the Giants. The division won't be as difficult now that the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, and will suffer a bad year because of it, though it might not be too long a dip. The Diamondbacks are still on the long road of rebuilding since the pitching is still porous and they still don't hit with any consistency, though they do have building blocks. The Dodgers are interesting with a solid rotation and a nice lineup, but they don't have the hitting Colorado has or the pitching San Francisco has as well. The Rockies are the contender in the division, but will need more pitching than Ubaldo Jimenez to overtake the Giants. San Francisco will struggle early, but the injuries they have seem short-term and they should tread water until healthy, then win the end.
World Series Pick: Braves over A's
MVP's: Ryan Braun and Robinson Cano
Cy Young's: Roy Halladay and Jon Lester
Rookies of the Year: Freddie Freeman and Jeremy Hellickson
Managers of the Year: Ron Roenicke and Bob Geren
We begin in the reigning toughest division in baseball, and the likely toughest for the rest of time in the AL East. You know a division is tough when the fifth-place team can realistically win another division. Baltimore and Toronto are interesting because they are up-and-coming; both teams can hit well and they have young pitching that if they reach potential, could win about 85-90 games. Even that, however, wouldn't mean the playoffs for both. Tampa lost Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and many others, but they still have Evan Longoria and David Price and with good years from Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and B.J. Upton, they can easily go back to the playoffs. However, I don't believe their bullpen without Soriano and Joaquin Benoit can establish themselves good enough to pass the Yankees and Red Sox. Both teams will make the playoffs, Josh Beckett would be the key if the Red Sox win the division or the Yankees. If Beckett's can bounce back to his best, then the Red Sox advantage in the rotation is pronounced over the Yankees. If not, then the rotations are a wash, with maybe a slight edge for Boston. I think the Red Sox win it, only because the Yankees might struggle early with the rotation and whatever trade they make won't swing the division, but solidify the wild card.
The AL Central once again has Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago as their contenders as Cleveland and Kansas City continue the rebuild. The Royals are really close to being a good team, as their best in baseball farm system continues to grow up. It won't be this year they compete for the playoffs, but in 2012 or 2013, they will. I think they hold off the Indians in the battle for last place, as Cleveland is a little behind the rebuild than the Royals (meaning Orlando Cabrera is traded to a contender by July 31). As for the contenders, I'm not sold on either the Tigers or White Sox to overtake the Twins. Chicago always seems to wear down over the year under Ozzie Guillen's managing, while the Tigers don't seem to have the rotation capable of winning the division. I know the Twins lost some major bullpen guys, but if Joe Nathan comes back to his All-Star form, that negates the loss. It also helps to have Justin Morneau back in the lineup, hopefully he can have a season which he's healthy enough for the playoffs, would be important if it's the Yankees they play again.
Last year was a change for the AL West as the Angels went by the wayside and the Rangers won the division and the league. This year, both team look to stagnate a little, opening the door for a surprise winner. Even though the Mariners seem to do good in odd numbered years, they won't win this year. They could settle for another Cy Young for King Felix (better than training him). I look to Oakland as the best team in the West as they have the best rotation (and had it last year) and with Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui signing there, they have a better offense (of course, who knows with that ballpark). Anaheim is lacking in both offense and pitching to compete, despite Mike Scioscia's ability to manage. As for Texas, they will compete with Oakland to the end, but I must say, not getting Cliff Lee to resign is the difference for this team.
On to the NL, starting in the East where the Philly Phour reside. Despite the early season injuries, the Phillies really shouldn't miss the playoffs; if they do, it's an embarrassment. Speaking of embarrassment, the Mets should be the worst team in the division. I don't see how they pitch well, even in Citi Field, which will also negate the offense. Washington will be fourth, but they won't be any good until we know how Stephen Strasburg responds to Tommy John surgery, as well as when Bryce Harper moves to the majors. Florida is probably a year away from being a legitimate contender as the pitching behind Josh Johnson continues to develop more consistency and the lineup does as well, probably a good year in the new ballpark for them in 2012. The Braves will win the wild card as they are improved from last year. The pitching is still there (unless Derek Lowe comes back down) and more importantly, they will hit better with Dan Uggla and potential Rookie of the Year Freddie Freeman.
Probably the division that has the most potential contenders is the NL Central with Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Chicago and yes, St. Louis who can realistically win. I always think the Cards can compete because of Tony La Russa, Dave Duncan and Albert Pujols (even with the impending free agency). The Cubs are improved with Matt Garza and hope to have a motivated Carlos Pena who's on a one-year deal. Add Starlin Castro, Aramis Ramirez and Marlon Byrd and the lineup is good. Still think they fall short of the division, trailing both the Brewers and Reds. The Reds still have the balanced offense from last year and a dominant bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and Francisco Cordero at the back end. The Brewers offense is better than Cincy's and with Greinke and Shaun Marcum, they should have enough to win the division (and they better, they put too much into this season). No need to discuss the Astros or the Pirates, both will struggle, though Houston's closer to contention because of pitching.
Last but not least, the division of the defending World Series winners, the Giants. The division won't be as difficult now that the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, and will suffer a bad year because of it, though it might not be too long a dip. The Diamondbacks are still on the long road of rebuilding since the pitching is still porous and they still don't hit with any consistency, though they do have building blocks. The Dodgers are interesting with a solid rotation and a nice lineup, but they don't have the hitting Colorado has or the pitching San Francisco has as well. The Rockies are the contender in the division, but will need more pitching than Ubaldo Jimenez to overtake the Giants. San Francisco will struggle early, but the injuries they have seem short-term and they should tread water until healthy, then win the end.
World Series Pick: Braves over A's
MVP's: Ryan Braun and Robinson Cano
Cy Young's: Roy Halladay and Jon Lester
Rookies of the Year: Freddie Freeman and Jeremy Hellickson
Managers of the Year: Ron Roenicke and Bob Geren
Friday, October 15, 2010
LCS Preview
For time purposes, I won't have separate ALCS and NLCS previews. As such, the same format of the previous round preview will take place.
Let's start with the Yankees-Rangers, who begin their series tonight. The Yanks have the edge because Cliff Lee won't get to start the series in Texas because of his dominating performance in Game 5 against the Rays. Or so they think. The fact is, Lee would only start two games no matter what and as far as I'm concerned, Game 7 is more important than Game 5. If this series reaches seven games, the Rangers will win. So the key for the Yankees is to not let this series reach seven games, shades of the Mets in 1986 who had to avoid Mike Scott in Game 7 against Houston, including playing in the state of Texas and not having home field.
Looking past the Lee situation, you must consider that the Rangers top 6 in their lineup is nearly as dangerous as the Yankees. Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Guerrero, Cruz and Kinsler is very tricky to manuever, especially for lefties, which the Yankees have in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. The best move (one I should have tweeted before to first guess) is Joe Girardi having Phil Hughes pitch Game 2, against Colby Lewis, giving the Yanks the advantage. There is the spector of A.J. Burnett in Game 4, but tonight's Sabathia-C.J. Wilson showdown will determine if he's used. As for my series prediction, I think Sabathia wins tonight and the Yanks win in 6 games, avoiding Lee in Game 7.
The Giants-Phillies series has one theme; pitching, pitching and more pitching. The first game has Roy Halladay against Tim Lincecum, which Fox is promoting as the best Game 1 matchup in history, which I'd argue, but haven't found better. The Giants have the best 4 pitchers left with Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain and Madison Baumgartner ready to go. While the Phils have Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels in the next two games, their fourth starter is a question mark. The key for the Giants is the Lincecum start. If he can outpitch Halladay, the Giants have an interesting opportunity. The secret of the series, the Phightin's hitters are hitting about as good as the Giants. Despite that, I think the Phillies do enough in the first 3 games and knock off the Giants in 5 games and will face the Yankees in a rematch of last year, one that eagerly awaited.
Let's start with the Yankees-Rangers, who begin their series tonight. The Yanks have the edge because Cliff Lee won't get to start the series in Texas because of his dominating performance in Game 5 against the Rays. Or so they think. The fact is, Lee would only start two games no matter what and as far as I'm concerned, Game 7 is more important than Game 5. If this series reaches seven games, the Rangers will win. So the key for the Yankees is to not let this series reach seven games, shades of the Mets in 1986 who had to avoid Mike Scott in Game 7 against Houston, including playing in the state of Texas and not having home field.
Looking past the Lee situation, you must consider that the Rangers top 6 in their lineup is nearly as dangerous as the Yankees. Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Guerrero, Cruz and Kinsler is very tricky to manuever, especially for lefties, which the Yankees have in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. The best move (one I should have tweeted before to first guess) is Joe Girardi having Phil Hughes pitch Game 2, against Colby Lewis, giving the Yanks the advantage. There is the spector of A.J. Burnett in Game 4, but tonight's Sabathia-C.J. Wilson showdown will determine if he's used. As for my series prediction, I think Sabathia wins tonight and the Yanks win in 6 games, avoiding Lee in Game 7.
The Giants-Phillies series has one theme; pitching, pitching and more pitching. The first game has Roy Halladay against Tim Lincecum, which Fox is promoting as the best Game 1 matchup in history, which I'd argue, but haven't found better. The Giants have the best 4 pitchers left with Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain and Madison Baumgartner ready to go. While the Phils have Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels in the next two games, their fourth starter is a question mark. The key for the Giants is the Lincecum start. If he can outpitch Halladay, the Giants have an interesting opportunity. The secret of the series, the Phightin's hitters are hitting about as good as the Giants. Despite that, I think the Phillies do enough in the first 3 games and knock off the Giants in 5 games and will face the Yankees in a rematch of last year, one that eagerly awaited.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Division Series Preview
Tomorrow is the start of the Division Series and it seems like while the NL favorite is clearly the Phillies, the AL is wide open, which is a reversal of recent years when the AL's favorite was defined and the NL had four potential winners. Of course, even in those years with a prohibitive favorite (usually the 02-07 Yankees), that team usually didn't win. That's usually because the crapshoot of the MLB playoffs is this round, due to the best of five. Let's take a brief look at each series.
Philadelphia Phillies-Cincinnati Reds
This is a series which the Reds will need to overachieve to beat the best team in the majors. They also will need to forget about their series from July which the Phillies had three straight walkoff wins, including one from a seven run deficit which Cody Ransom was a key player. The Reds are also facing a Phils team that has Roy Oswalt now and have Cole Hamels almost back to being the pitcher from 2008. The only chance I can see for the Reds is if Joey Votto explodes and/or Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto can outpitch the Phillies starters. Can't see that happening. Phillies win in 4.
San Francisco Giants-Atlanta Braves
Very interesting with a team that can pitch with anyone in the Giants, but have trouble hitting, while the Braves to a lot of things good, but nothing great. Lineups are basically a wash, including the dueling Rookie of the Year candidates and have very good managers in Bobby Cox and Bruce Bochy. The Braves have to pitch with the Giants and if Derek Lowe is on, they could with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. I think the deciding factor is that Hudson will only start Game 3, while the Giants will have Tim Lincecum for two starts, and a hot Lincecum at that. Giants will win in 5.
Tampa Bay Rays-Texas Rangers
Texas was going to be a sexy first round team because of Cliff Lee. However, looking at the starters, the Rangers don't have Lee going in Game 4, a huge disadvantage. Also, Lee hasn't been particularly effective against the Rays this year. So the Rangers will need to hit and after David Price, they'll have their chance to hit. The toughest issue for the Rays is that with Lee and C.J. Wilson, the Rays lefties will be neutralized, so Evan Longoria and B.J. Opton will have to step up. With Lee being saved for a Game 5, I happen to think the Rangers won't be able to win starts without Lee and with the Rays at home and able to use their awful stadium to success on the basepaths, Tampa should win. Rays will win in 4.
Minnesota Twins-New York Yankees
The biggest series of the round will involve the one AL team with no concerns over pitching in the Twins. The Yanks will need Andy Pettitte to be ready soon in order to not only pitch, but also pitch well enough to steal Game 2 in Minnesota. This series will be interesting to see outdoor baseball in October in Minneapolis and to see if the Yanks lefties can hit HR's to right, like they will in NY. Francisco Liriano had a strong year this year and deserved the top spot in the rotation, while Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing have complimented well. The Yanks will hope Phil Hughes pitches well and if so, the Yanks will win. I think the Twins have a better bullpen than we thought they would have when Joe Nathan got hurt. This helps the Twins (except Brian Fuentes) because their bullpen is better and might not have the fear when they come in. The keys for the Yanks are the same, hit, hit for power am? The Yankees should still be the favorites but they need to hit better which I'm sure they they can do, but dealing with a spacious stadium will hurt the Yanks, not to mention they have struggled in general since the All-Star break; don't think they can just flip a switch. Twins will win in 5.
Philadelphia Phillies-Cincinnati Reds
This is a series which the Reds will need to overachieve to beat the best team in the majors. They also will need to forget about their series from July which the Phillies had three straight walkoff wins, including one from a seven run deficit which Cody Ransom was a key player. The Reds are also facing a Phils team that has Roy Oswalt now and have Cole Hamels almost back to being the pitcher from 2008. The only chance I can see for the Reds is if Joey Votto explodes and/or Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto can outpitch the Phillies starters. Can't see that happening. Phillies win in 4.
San Francisco Giants-Atlanta Braves
Very interesting with a team that can pitch with anyone in the Giants, but have trouble hitting, while the Braves to a lot of things good, but nothing great. Lineups are basically a wash, including the dueling Rookie of the Year candidates and have very good managers in Bobby Cox and Bruce Bochy. The Braves have to pitch with the Giants and if Derek Lowe is on, they could with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. I think the deciding factor is that Hudson will only start Game 3, while the Giants will have Tim Lincecum for two starts, and a hot Lincecum at that. Giants will win in 5.
Tampa Bay Rays-Texas Rangers
Texas was going to be a sexy first round team because of Cliff Lee. However, looking at the starters, the Rangers don't have Lee going in Game 4, a huge disadvantage. Also, Lee hasn't been particularly effective against the Rays this year. So the Rangers will need to hit and after David Price, they'll have their chance to hit. The toughest issue for the Rays is that with Lee and C.J. Wilson, the Rays lefties will be neutralized, so Evan Longoria and B.J. Opton will have to step up. With Lee being saved for a Game 5, I happen to think the Rangers won't be able to win starts without Lee and with the Rays at home and able to use their awful stadium to success on the basepaths, Tampa should win. Rays will win in 4.
Minnesota Twins-New York Yankees
The biggest series of the round will involve the one AL team with no concerns over pitching in the Twins. The Yanks will need Andy Pettitte to be ready soon in order to not only pitch, but also pitch well enough to steal Game 2 in Minnesota. This series will be interesting to see outdoor baseball in October in Minneapolis and to see if the Yanks lefties can hit HR's to right, like they will in NY. Francisco Liriano had a strong year this year and deserved the top spot in the rotation, while Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing have complimented well. The Yanks will hope Phil Hughes pitches well and if so, the Yanks will win. I think the Twins have a better bullpen than we thought they would have when Joe Nathan got hurt. This helps the Twins (except Brian Fuentes) because their bullpen is better and might not have the fear when they come in. The keys for the Yanks are the same, hit, hit for power am? The Yankees should still be the favorites but they need to hit better which I'm sure they they can do, but dealing with a spacious stadium will hurt the Yanks, not to mention they have struggled in general since the All-Star break; don't think they can just flip a switch. Twins will win in 5.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
NL Power Poll
Except for Seattle, who I'd move ahead of Toronto, I'm still satisfied with my AL Power Poll from last week. Now it's time for the NL Power Poll, which will be much harder. The reason being, the National League is much wider than the AL is this year. Joel Sherman in his Hardball blog wrote about eight teams with a legitimate chance to win this year. So let's get started.
16. Pittsburgh- '51-'55 Pirates: In Rob Neyer's "Big Book Of Baseball Lineups", he wrote about the Branch Rickey years which the Pirates were horrible and they traded players like Ralph Kiner and Gus Bell. However, he does make the point that the Pirates would eventually win the World Series five years after Rickey was let go in 1955, since eventually a lot of his players would succeed on the major league level. What does this have to do with the '09 Pirates? Well, Pittsburgh you have to believe will become successful again. They finally went into full-scale rebuild mode, instead of just wait until one player becomes expensive, then trade him, trade another the next year and so on. Getting rid of all your veterans have made some people mad about the Pirates, but I think they should gut the team and bring in as many young players as possible and hope they build a winner.
15. Washington- '95 Twins: Best example for this years Nats is a forgettable Minnesota team who played poor despite still having Chuck Knoblauch and Kirby Puckett hitting, and Brad Radke and Scott Erickson pitching. Also, because of the Twins respectable 37-44 record after July 4th. The Nationals have also started to play better since All-Star break, winning eight in a row before losing to Tommy Hanson and the Braves Tuesday night. The problem with the Nationals is that unless Stephen Strasburg is real deal, they won't be good for many years. It's a shame that Ryan Zimmerman's prime will be wasted with the Nats.
14. Cincinnati- '04 Mets: Only reason I compare these Reds with these Mets is the fact that the Reds picked up Scott Rolen when every indication is that they should sell. Of course, they didn't give up a player of Scott Kazmir's caliber like the Mets did and can't overturn this mistake by spending their way to a pennant. This season has really become a lost year for the Reds as they were a sleeper pick for most of the experts. However, all the good pitching of a year ago (Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto) has gone down and Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are now wildly overpaid. The Rolen trade, Cincinnati believes make them better for 2010 in a seeming desperate attempt to contend but I think they are another one who should of tried to gut the payroll but now is in the no-man's land of baseball.
13. San Diego- '93 Padres: This Padres team is a lot like the one from 1993 when they tore apart their team, particular their trades of Gary Sheffield (though it netted them Trevor Hoffman) and Fred McGriff. While not in the single-season aspect, they have over the past couple years since the loss to the Rockies in the one-game playoff have gutted the team with the exception of Adrian Gonzalez, the Tony Gwynn of this generation for Padres fans. Trading Jake Peavy gave them four players, including a good starter in Clayton Richard and they passed the closer baton to Heath Bell from Hoffman. For some reason, I do think San Diego will successfully rebuild and in a few years they will win the NL West again. Why? Because the NL West has someone else win every few years.
12. New York- '01 Red Sox: I resisted using the '02 Mets because they weren't injured enough which led me to the 2001 Red Sox. They lost both Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez for long stretches in that season. The main difference was Manny Ramirez had a Manny-like season while David Wright lost his power. They also both had lesser rotations (with the exception of Johan Santana) and plenty of older players playing old. Anything else you want to know about the Red Sox in 2001, just read Bill Simmons two-part review using The Godfather quotes. As for the Mets season, just read my column about the Omar Minaya-Adam Rubin mess. More about the Mets, they can be saved next season if Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes can heal. If not, they should unload Reyes and try to rebuild.
11. Arizona- '08 Giants: Last year's San Francisco team had transferred to this year's Diamondbacks as the Snakes have one great starter, weak pitching staff for the rest and a lesser offense. The key difference is that Arizona has Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton who are their only power on the club and Brandon Webb is injured, while Matt Cain just wasn't as good last year. Actually, when Webb returns from injury next season, Arizona will be set to compete again in 2010, especially if the Giants maintain their impotent offense and the Dodgers come down a bit. They also could see the offense improve with more experience for Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra.
10. Milwaukee- '97 Padres: I'm sure nobody remember this Padres team, not even San Diego fans. This team was surrounded by the Padres two playoff appearances in the 90s. However, I do feel this example is apropos since they had good hitters but poor pitchers in the following season of a playoff appearance. Of course, I don't remember Ken Caminiti calling out their management and pitchers like Ryan Braun did when he wanted to get another pitcher and I definitely don't remember Tony Gwynn trying to get into the Dodgers clubhouse for a fight, like Prince Fielder did last week. The fact is, this team is continuing to implode this season, but to be fair, the future still is bright. If they get another pitcher in the offseason to go along with Yovani Gallardo, they would be back in the playoffs in 2010.
9. Houston- '83 Royals: Here's another team that no one remembers but I chose the Royals because this was in the middle of an era of success and 1983 was a rare down year for those Royals. The hitting was still good (even the last good season from Willie Mays Aikens), but the pitching was older and not as effective. Sounds like the Astros this year, except they aren't in a division with a runaway winner like Kansas City was that season. The Astros usually play better than expected; I for one picked them for fifth before the season started. However, with Drayton Mclaine not willing or able to add payroll, Houston had no chance to improve prior to the trade deadline and competing for playoff spot doesn't allow him to trade guys like Miguel Tejada. What ends up happening is a no-man's land that no one likes because they won't go full bore for a title or rebuild for a new contender.
8. Chicago- '08 Yankees: I haven't really thought about it, but the similarites between the Yankees last year and this year's Cubs are there. Both were among the favorites to win the World Series, both had loaded lineups who have underachieved and both have had pitching problems (Yankees starters; Cubs bullpen). The key loss for the Cubs has been Mark DeRosa and replacing him with Milton Bradley has crashed and burned for them. Down years by Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto have hurt, along with Aramis Ramirez being hurt this year. Derrick Lee is the singular reason the Cubs have stayed alive, and maybe they can make the playoffs if their hitters start hitting and their rotation stays healthy. However, with an improved Cardinals team to deal with and trouble beating good teams, chances are the Cubs drought continues for another year.
7. San Francisco- '88 Dodgers: I know it's blasphemous for a Giants team to be compared to a Dodgers one, but San Francisco is following the L.A. playbook from 1988. The Dodgers had one hitter carry a poor hitting team (Kirk Gibson) which the Giants have as well in Pablo Sandoval. Tim Lincecum has been the Giants' Orel Hershiser; though the Dodgers didn't have a number two starter the likes of Matt Cain. If this team can get any extra hitting, they will win the wildcard, but that is unlikely. This is a team that could do damage in the playoffs with that staff, but need to get there first, and I just don't see that happening.
6. Florida- '99 Red Sox: To be fair, this year's Marlins are the poor men to that '99 Red Sox team. While Hanley Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra compare as great hitting shortstops, Josh Johnson isn't in the class Pedro Martinez was back in 1999. Pedro was untouchable, like Greg Maddux in 1994, Ron Guidry in 1978 and Dwight Gooden in 1985. Josh Johnson isn't having that kind of year, but 11-2 with a 2.92 ERA is very impressive and the Marlins can be sure that they will win whenever he starts, it seems. Both lineups hit just enough to avoid their shortstops as the lone hitting threat, but not enough to be consistently good enough to win. Their pitching staff outside of Johnson is poorous, like the Red Sox in 1999 except for Bret Saberhagen. They keep winning, but I don't see how they make the playoffs when they allow more runs then they score. Run differential for the Marlins is -1 and it catches up to you when September rolls around; that's why the Mariners won't win and neither will Florida.
5. Colorado- '03 Marlins: I was going to compare this year's Marlins to the '03 team, but going over the Rockies, I saw that they have a better comparison to Florida. They have been spurred by a managerial change when Clint Hurdle was fired for Jim Tracy, the hitting is very similar and so is the pitching aside from higher ERA's. Also, the Rockies rotation is a little older than the Marlins were in 2003, as Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett were mainstays that season. As for the lineups, Pudge Rodriguez led their lineup much like Todd Helton is doing this season, while Brad Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki have provided the power of a Mike Lowell and Derrick Lee. Add the speed of Dexter Fowler to Juan Pierre and you have very similar teams.
Now I thought before the year the Rockies wouldn't compete again, especially after trading away Matt Holliday. However, this team has been on a roll since Tracy assumed the job of manager and it's hard for me to see Colorado fall apart. Ultimately, I think this team will fall short of the playoffs because the pitching is beatable and the lineup hasn't hit like a typical Rockies team. I also don't believe you get to make another surprising run to a World Series more than once in a decade. The Astros had a great run in 2005 and I can't believe they would do it again for many years. It's one thing for a favored team like the Yankees in 1978, 2005 and 2007 reaching the playoffs from behind or the Braves in 1993; they corrected themselves after an underachieving start. The Rockies weren't picked, started slow, and have picked it up, I think they will have another slump before it ends.
4. Atlanta- '05 Indians: Just like that Cleveland team, the Braves have returned to contention with the help of a good rotation and enough hitting. At least the Braves aren't dealing with loaded Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox teams the Indians did. Tommy Hanson has been a revelation and the rest of the pitching staff is as good as any in the National League (and I include the Giants). Javy Vazquez continues to prove the perfect National League pitcher, Jair Jurrjens continues to make the Tigers rue the day they traded him for Edgar Renteria and Derek Lowe has turned around an off year in the past month and a half. Rafael Soriano has thrived in the closer spot and they have been led at the plate by Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar and Chipper Jones.
The biggest problem the Braves have is that the lineup hasn't really been healthy all year and an injury could derail them. Plus, having the Phillies in their division leaves only the wild card left to grab. However, I think there is a flaw on the Giants and Rockies that isn't as noticable on the Braves and this team return to playoffs, maybe for the last time for Bobby Cox. And this won't be the last you hear of the Braves as there is some youth on this team that will contend for a few years, though not the 14 year run that Atlanta had before.
3. Los Angeles- '02 Giants: Since I compared the Giants to the Dodgers, it's fitting to compare the Dodgers to a San Francisco World Series team. The rotations for both aren't that deep, the lineups are good, but depend on one guy to succeed who has a steroid past. I guess the biggest difference is that Barry Bonds played a full year, while Manny Ramirez was suspended 50 games for failing a drug test. They even both have Jason Schmidt as a starter, though the Dodgers just got him back from a two year injury. The only difference between the bullpens is age, but Jonathan Broxton is a good closer and George Sherrill strengths a strong unit that Joe Torre tends to overuse.
After the great start, the Dodgers have started to slow down and the Rockies and Giants are now on the Dodgers heels. A lead of nine games has been reduced to 5.5. However, I still think the talent level in the lineup is the best in the division and the rotation led by Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf is solid enough with their lineup. The key will be Chad Billingsley because if his hamstring keeps him out for an extended period of time, the Dodgers could be in trouble, since the rotation is quietly thin. That was why they should have tried to get Roy Halladay, even if the Jays wanted Billingsley. Also consider, Torre has been there many times before and can motivate his guys to play the way they should play.
2. St. Louis- '93 Braves and '89 Athletics: This was the toughest team to compare because I couldn't find a midseason hitter pickup that will have the impact that Matt Holliday has had except for Fred McGriff. The '89 A's also made a big midseason pickup as they traded for Rickey Henderson and that led to a World Series win. Both teams, however, didn't only have one source of hitting that the Cardinals had with Albert Pujols. The Holliday acquisition has now turned the Cardinals from a possible playoff team to a slam dunk.
The key for the Cardinals is that Chris Carpenter is back and pitching like the Cy Young winner he once was. Adam Wainwright and Joel Piniero have pitched just as well and they have as good a rotation as anyone in baseball for the playoffs. The Holliday trade, along with the Mark DeRosa pickup and Ryan Ludwick starting to hit like he did last year, has made the Cardinals lineup a strong one and now teams must think before they decide to walk Pujols or not. Finally, Ryan Franklin has been great as closer and the rest of the bullpen have proven a strength. This team is certainly a contender for a World Series and I think are better than the Dodgers now, but the Phillies seem to be ahead of everyone.
1. Philadelphia- '93 Blue Jays: I know I already used the '93 Jays with the Yankees, but to be fair, the team fits the Phillies more. Terrific hitting team improves offense after winning a championship, while strengthing their rotation; that's this year's Phillies. Actually, these Yankees remind me more of the teams from 2002-04 when they still had the championship aura, but was starting not to win. Philly is now even better following a championship and that is discerning for the entire National League.
The trade for Cliff Lee already has CC Sabathia-in-Milwaukee potential after his 3-0 start with a 1.12 ERA. There are no longer any lineup questions as Jimmy Rollins has hit better in the past month and a half and Raul Ibanez has proved an upgrade over Pat Burrell. The pitching depth is there as Pedro Martinez can be effective as a fourth starter in a playoff series and Joe Blanton has been consistent as of late, making only quality starts since July began. Two huge concerns for the Phils. Can Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge return to 2008 form and can the Phillies win if they don't. I think they can win if Hamels doesn't pitch as well because of the addition of Lee, but they need to replace Lidge if he can't improve. They have Ryan Madson who could take over as closer if they need to and they might. The best thing about the Phillies, their offense will slug it's way out of trouble and their clutch, which is very important in baseball. This team is the favorite and should repeat as world champions.
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