Today saw three moves made on the eve of NFL free agency that will impact the market for WR's and show how the NFC West is now the top division in football. The Seahawks traded for Percy Harvin of the Vikings for a couple picks this year and one next year, as reported by Jay Glazer. One of those picks was Seattle's first rounder for this year.
Since Jim Harbaugh is physically incapable of allowing Pete Carroll to get the upper hand, the 49ers trade for Anquan Boldin from the Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens, who finally figured out how they will handle a potentially rough situation. Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun is reporting that San Francisco gave up just a sixth round pick for Boldin. Seems like the 49ers made the better pickup since Boldin is a better WR (at least more of a classic WR) and Harvin has injury issues. Still, after picking up Mario Manningham last year, I'm already wondering which WR San Francisco will pickup from whichever team beats them in the playoffs next year.
Still, the NFC West continues to show signs that it's far from being the worst division in the NFL like it was as recently as two years ago and now it might officially be the best division in the league. Especially after the Rams improved by leaps and bounds last year without a great offense. As for the Cardinals, all they need is a QB and an O-Line and they could be good.
The other takeaway from today is how the WR market is heating up. Greg Jennings is among biggest names at WR when free agency starts Friday and expect many teams to get involved in the bidding. Wes Welker and Mike Wallace will also garner plenty of attention; Wallace in particular I expect will leave the Steelers. Once those three sign, eyes will focus on Victor Cruz, who's a RFA and has a first round tender. The Giants seem to be indicating that there is a ceiling on how much they will pay Cruz, which doesn't shock me at all since the Giants have a number for every player they have and when someone exceeds that number, the Giants find someone new to take the spot and the transition becomes seamless. Just note that the Vikings now have two first rounders, both of which are in the 20s; should they not sign Jennings, Welker or Wallace, there's a fit with them and Cruz. Still think Cruz will remain a Giant, but I'm already preparing myself for the day we grab the draft pick.
NFL Free Agency tends to be a whirlwind day of transactions and it's happening as we get into Championship Week in college basketball and starts during what should be an epic showdown at Camp Nou as Barcelona will try to rally against AC Milan. This week just keeps getting better and better.
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Monday, March 11, 2013
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Super Bowl Preview
There's not much else to be said for today's Super Bowl between the Ravens and the 49ers. We will see the Harbaugh brothers match wits against one another. We will see the last game of Ray Lewis' career (no more deer antler spraying for him). Ed Reed will play in his first Super Bowl. Randy Moss try to win his first Super Bowl, despite not being the same player he was when he played in his first one 5 years ago to the day. Colin Kaepernick looks to go from unknown backup to Super Bowl champion in a quicker span than Tom Brady did (though not a quickly as Jeff Hostetler did, at least during a singular season). Joe Flacco will try to solidify a giant payday after this game (though Neil O'Donnell's awful Super Bowl didn't stop the Jets from giving him huge money, which makes their interest in JaMarcus Russell no surprise)
It's been a great run for the Ravens, reminds me of the Giants Super Bowl runs. The difference between the two Super Bowl runs is the Giants defense was a little more dynamic than the Ravens are at this point and the 49ers have a more difficult to defend offense than the Patriots in my eyes because they are dangerous both on the ground and through the air. Too much read option for the 49ers will do it. San Francisco wins 31-20 and turns the Bay Area into the next Titletown America.
It's been a great run for the Ravens, reminds me of the Giants Super Bowl runs. The difference between the two Super Bowl runs is the Giants defense was a little more dynamic than the Ravens are at this point and the 49ers have a more difficult to defend offense than the Patriots in my eyes because they are dangerous both on the ground and through the air. Too much read option for the 49ers will do it. San Francisco wins 31-20 and turns the Bay Area into the next Titletown America.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Championship Sunday Preview
The best day of the football season and on the short list of the best days of the sports year take place on today as both the NFC and AFC Championship Games take place. At a more optimum time, I will have a list of what are the best sports days of the year, but for now, the focus will be on the field. We've come off the heels of an outstanding NFL Divisional Round which the 49ers and Patriots showed us the best we can see in terms of offense and how many "HOLY $#!T" moments we saw in the Ravens and Falcons victories. And we are really desperate for real sports to occur after Manti Te'o and Lance Armstrong dominated our sports news this week. The Heat's win over the Lakers finally put the focus back on the field of play and the NHL FINALLY began its season and made the ice the focus. Today, we'll only be focused on Atlanta and Foxboro.
San Francisco at Atlanta. Spread: 49ers by 4
You see this spread correct, the Falcons are home underdogs in the NFC Championship game. This has happened before, last occurring back two years ago when the Packers were favored over the Bears. I don't think that Atlanta will lose close and cover, thus the spread shouldn't be a factor in my pick here. It seems to me that the Falcons have one chance to win this game and that's with a quick start on offense. Barring a particularly sloppy game by the 49ers where they turn the ball over too many times, drop passes and kill themselves with penalties, the Falcons would be better served if they can have their offense strike quickly. The biggest factor in Atlanta's favor is playing home in the dome and the way that building can be best utilized if getting an early lead and having the crowd in the game all day long. The other thing about an early lead is that the Falcons can then run the football. Now, Atlanta isn't very good at running the ball, but a good start for Matt Ryan might open up the running lanes and a lead will allow a more balanced offense; something that you must try to have against the San Francisco defense.
Last week, the 49ers put an absolute clinic on how to run an offense in 2012 as Colin Kaepernick seemed to have perfected the read-option that Jim Harbaugh has installed there. He threw a pick-six in the early going last week and I don't think anyone remembers that. Another thing that's been clear is Michael Crabtree has a more prominent role in the offense now with Kaepernick at QB. Now, I wouldn't expect a repeat of last week's performance because I'm sure the Falcons won't get beat repeatedly by both the passing game and running game. However, the 49ers defense won't have as bad a game as they had last week now that they aren't facing an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.
I don't think this spread is an overreaction to a great win for the 49ers last week; this team has been destined to go to the Super Bowl since Week 1. I really don't see an overrated Falcons team standing in their way, no matter where the game is being played.
San Francisco will win 30-17.
Baltimore at New England. Spread: Patriots by 8
Instead of Brady vs Manning, we get a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game as the Ravens have snuck back in. This is the first rematch since 1994 when the 49ers finally got the best of the Cowboys, and the first in the AFC since 1987 which saw The Fumble. History isn't on Baltimore's side here as the only times that a team won a Championship Game rematch happened when two teams faced in three straight Championship Games (1976 Raiders and 1994 49ers). Every other rematch saw the previous year winner remain on top. Thus, the Ravens have to try to end a historical trend.
Baltimore's defense is better as of late (of the 35 points given up last week, 14 were via special teams), though that had a lot to do with the Broncos injuries in the run game. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens try to defend the Patriots, but they can't allow the Pats to run on them. Tom Brady is going to have success at times. It makes his success much easier if Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen are running the ball well. Another thing needed by the Ravens is that the Pats secondary plays like Denver's did last week. Funny thing is that New England finally figured out a way to make a solid secondary after years of failed draft picks and just an overall lack of talent there (helps when Aqib Talib is just handed to them in midseason).
The familiarity that these two teams breed will keep this game close. Just like a Ravens-Steelers game is always within a score, so is a Ravens-Patriots contest. I'm confident that Joe Flacco will keep the Ravens in this one, but in the end, there's too much Brady and too much Bill Belichick to overcome all the emotion to win a Super Bowl for Ray Lewis.
Patriots will win 31-27.
Last week: 2-2
Playoffs: 5-3
Season: 135-121-6
San Francisco at Atlanta. Spread: 49ers by 4
You see this spread correct, the Falcons are home underdogs in the NFC Championship game. This has happened before, last occurring back two years ago when the Packers were favored over the Bears. I don't think that Atlanta will lose close and cover, thus the spread shouldn't be a factor in my pick here. It seems to me that the Falcons have one chance to win this game and that's with a quick start on offense. Barring a particularly sloppy game by the 49ers where they turn the ball over too many times, drop passes and kill themselves with penalties, the Falcons would be better served if they can have their offense strike quickly. The biggest factor in Atlanta's favor is playing home in the dome and the way that building can be best utilized if getting an early lead and having the crowd in the game all day long. The other thing about an early lead is that the Falcons can then run the football. Now, Atlanta isn't very good at running the ball, but a good start for Matt Ryan might open up the running lanes and a lead will allow a more balanced offense; something that you must try to have against the San Francisco defense.
Last week, the 49ers put an absolute clinic on how to run an offense in 2012 as Colin Kaepernick seemed to have perfected the read-option that Jim Harbaugh has installed there. He threw a pick-six in the early going last week and I don't think anyone remembers that. Another thing that's been clear is Michael Crabtree has a more prominent role in the offense now with Kaepernick at QB. Now, I wouldn't expect a repeat of last week's performance because I'm sure the Falcons won't get beat repeatedly by both the passing game and running game. However, the 49ers defense won't have as bad a game as they had last week now that they aren't facing an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.
I don't think this spread is an overreaction to a great win for the 49ers last week; this team has been destined to go to the Super Bowl since Week 1. I really don't see an overrated Falcons team standing in their way, no matter where the game is being played.
San Francisco will win 30-17.
Baltimore at New England. Spread: Patriots by 8
Instead of Brady vs Manning, we get a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game as the Ravens have snuck back in. This is the first rematch since 1994 when the 49ers finally got the best of the Cowboys, and the first in the AFC since 1987 which saw The Fumble. History isn't on Baltimore's side here as the only times that a team won a Championship Game rematch happened when two teams faced in three straight Championship Games (1976 Raiders and 1994 49ers). Every other rematch saw the previous year winner remain on top. Thus, the Ravens have to try to end a historical trend.
Baltimore's defense is better as of late (of the 35 points given up last week, 14 were via special teams), though that had a lot to do with the Broncos injuries in the run game. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens try to defend the Patriots, but they can't allow the Pats to run on them. Tom Brady is going to have success at times. It makes his success much easier if Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen are running the ball well. Another thing needed by the Ravens is that the Pats secondary plays like Denver's did last week. Funny thing is that New England finally figured out a way to make a solid secondary after years of failed draft picks and just an overall lack of talent there (helps when Aqib Talib is just handed to them in midseason).
The familiarity that these two teams breed will keep this game close. Just like a Ravens-Steelers game is always within a score, so is a Ravens-Patriots contest. I'm confident that Joe Flacco will keep the Ravens in this one, but in the end, there's too much Brady and too much Bill Belichick to overcome all the emotion to win a Super Bowl for Ray Lewis.
Patriots will win 31-27.
Last week: 2-2
Playoffs: 5-3
Season: 135-121-6
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Divisional Sunday
Seattle at Atlanta: Spread: Falcons by 3.
Losing Chris Clemons definitely hurts the Seahawks and they are at a disadvantage playing at 1pm EST. However, the Falcons might be missing John Abraham and they have a lesser defense than the Seahawks, making that injury matter more. Marshawn Lynch should play and that's enough for me.
Seahawks will win 23-10.
Houston at New England: Spread: Pats by 9.5
If there's one lock this weekend, it's the Patriots winning this game. After watching the Ravens win yesterday (and probably being reminded how the Jets came into Foxboro in 2010 and beat them a month after a Pats drubbing), I'm certain the Pats will take care of business against a Texans team with a scared QB in Matt Schaub.
Patriots will win 35-10.
This week: 0-2
Playoff record: 3-3
Season record: 133-121-6
Losing Chris Clemons definitely hurts the Seahawks and they are at a disadvantage playing at 1pm EST. However, the Falcons might be missing John Abraham and they have a lesser defense than the Seahawks, making that injury matter more. Marshawn Lynch should play and that's enough for me.
Seahawks will win 23-10.
Houston at New England: Spread: Pats by 9.5
If there's one lock this weekend, it's the Patriots winning this game. After watching the Ravens win yesterday (and probably being reminded how the Jets came into Foxboro in 2010 and beat them a month after a Pats drubbing), I'm certain the Pats will take care of business against a Texans team with a scared QB in Matt Schaub.
Patriots will win 35-10.
This week: 0-2
Playoff record: 3-3
Season record: 133-121-6
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Divisional Saturday
We gear up for the best football weekend of the year with two matchups that cause everyone to look ahead to next week, one which no one believes in the favorite and the final matchup that makes it unfortunate that it isn't the NFC Championship game. To be fair, this year's Divisional round is better because of the way the game shook down from last week (although we will never be better for RGIII tearing his knee like he did last week). Let's take a look at the games.
Baltimore at Denver: Spread: Broncos by 9
Last week in Baltimore was about Ray Lewis' last home game and the Ravens more or less held off the Colts with timely offense and by keeping the pressure on Andrew Luck. The question for the Ravens is how much of the blowout they suffered in Week 15 against the Broncos is an aberration and how much of it is a trend. One thing we do know about Denver; their defense is a whole lot better than the Colts'. It's also true that while the Ravens are still hurt, their defense is better with Ray Lewis back in (this is where you tell me, thanks Captain Obvious).
One thing that is true though is Peyton Manning has always played well against the Ravens (or more to the point, his teams always beat the Ravens, especially in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, the Ravens haven't scored a touchdown against a Manning-led team (though Peyton has very little to do with that, aside from controlling field position). Of the two AFC matchups, the Ravens are more likely to pull an upset. Doesn't mean that's going to happen.
Broncos will win 31-17
Green Bay at San Francisco: Spread: 49ers by 3
I've been waiting for this game since Joe Webb's third pass from in the grasp of a sack last week. Packers and 49ers have history (their battles in the 1990s), common lineage (Mike Holmgren brought the West Coast offense there; Mike McCarthy was a SF offensive coordinator before going to Green Bay), draft history (49ers picking Alex Smith over hometown guy and Cal grad Aaron Rodgers back in 2005) and a recent result to motivate both sides. The season opener between these two teams, however, feels like it too place forever, especially now that Alex Smith has been replaced by Colin Kaepernick at QB. However, I have a feeling the absence of another Smith will prove to be the difference.
Since losing Justin Smith to injury, the 49ers defense hasn't been nearly as good (coincidentally, neither has Aldon Smith). It started against the Pats in the second half when New England rallied from a 31-3 deficit to tie it up, then the Seahawks put a 40-burger on the Niners the following week. The hope is that a game with the Cards and a bye week are enough to get the defense back to their typical season form. However, facing Aaron Rodgers (who has his first chance at making San Francisco pay for not drafting him) isn't a promising prospect for them. Let's not forget that the Packers defense is basically playing a similar offense to last week's Vikings (aside from Kaepernick waking up to know he's the starter). As long as they don't allow the 49ers to run on them, I don't see how Green Bay doesn't win today, with or without Justin Smith.
Green Bay will win 27-17
Last week: 3-1
Season: 133-119-6
Baltimore at Denver: Spread: Broncos by 9
Last week in Baltimore was about Ray Lewis' last home game and the Ravens more or less held off the Colts with timely offense and by keeping the pressure on Andrew Luck. The question for the Ravens is how much of the blowout they suffered in Week 15 against the Broncos is an aberration and how much of it is a trend. One thing we do know about Denver; their defense is a whole lot better than the Colts'. It's also true that while the Ravens are still hurt, their defense is better with Ray Lewis back in (this is where you tell me, thanks Captain Obvious).
One thing that is true though is Peyton Manning has always played well against the Ravens (or more to the point, his teams always beat the Ravens, especially in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, the Ravens haven't scored a touchdown against a Manning-led team (though Peyton has very little to do with that, aside from controlling field position). Of the two AFC matchups, the Ravens are more likely to pull an upset. Doesn't mean that's going to happen.
Broncos will win 31-17
Green Bay at San Francisco: Spread: 49ers by 3
I've been waiting for this game since Joe Webb's third pass from in the grasp of a sack last week. Packers and 49ers have history (their battles in the 1990s), common lineage (Mike Holmgren brought the West Coast offense there; Mike McCarthy was a SF offensive coordinator before going to Green Bay), draft history (49ers picking Alex Smith over hometown guy and Cal grad Aaron Rodgers back in 2005) and a recent result to motivate both sides. The season opener between these two teams, however, feels like it too place forever, especially now that Alex Smith has been replaced by Colin Kaepernick at QB. However, I have a feeling the absence of another Smith will prove to be the difference.
Since losing Justin Smith to injury, the 49ers defense hasn't been nearly as good (coincidentally, neither has Aldon Smith). It started against the Pats in the second half when New England rallied from a 31-3 deficit to tie it up, then the Seahawks put a 40-burger on the Niners the following week. The hope is that a game with the Cards and a bye week are enough to get the defense back to their typical season form. However, facing Aaron Rodgers (who has his first chance at making San Francisco pay for not drafting him) isn't a promising prospect for them. Let's not forget that the Packers defense is basically playing a similar offense to last week's Vikings (aside from Kaepernick waking up to know he's the starter). As long as they don't allow the 49ers to run on them, I don't see how Green Bay doesn't win today, with or without Justin Smith.
Green Bay will win 27-17
Last week: 3-1
Season: 133-119-6
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Wild Card Sunday
Saturday's games saw three ugly teams in the playoffs and one who was head and shoulders above the rest. Some of the worst offense ever displayed was courtesy of Andy Dalton and Joe Webb, who combined to go 25 for 60 for 307 yards with a touchdown and a pair of interceptions. I know what you're thinking, the combined box score isn't the worst QB play ever. Well, Dalton had only 3 yards of passing offensive before finally finding A.J. Green in the 3rd quarter and Webb just didn't belong on the field for the first three quarters in Green Bay. Yes, the Texans did things well as Arian Foster ran for over 100 yards again in the playoffs, while their defense was particularly stout. However, Matt Schaub didn't inspire confidence that he is capable of leading this team past New England next week, plus it doesn't help that Gary Kubiak will coach in a shell once the going gets bad and the Texans will take dumb penalties, which the Pats will make you pay for every week.
The Packers, on the other hand, played their absolute best game last night as Aaron Rodgers was in full control on offense and their defense was scary good, like they were in 2010. Yes, Joe Webb has a lot to do with that, but the Packers also didn't allow Adrian Peterson to hurt them and hold him to 99 yards on 22 carries is what I call holding him in check. Now they move on to San Francisco, for a rematch of the first game at Lambeau Field, which the 49ers made their opening statement that they weren't going anywhere this year and won a 30-22 game which the final score didn't show how much the Niners dominated. We have a whole week to see if in the Packers can get revenge; for now, there are two more playoff games worth previewing.
Indianapolis at Baltimore: Spread: Ravens by 7
Battle of old Baltimore NFL team vs new Baltimore team. Chuck Pagano faces his former defense. Ray Lewis' last game in Baltimore. The question is do the Colts end Lewis' career today or do the Ravens curtail the Chuck Strong movement this season? As much as I like what the Colts have done this year, asking them to win a road playoff game in Andrew Luck's first playoff start might be a lot.
Figure the Ravens will use a lot of Ray Rice, since the Colts are 29th in the league against the run. Joe Flacco doesn't inspire the utmost confidence, but as long as he can avoid turnovers, the Ravens will pass on the Colts as well (21st pass defense in the league). What helps the Colts is that this isn't a vintage Ravens defense, though the fact they lost nearly every major defensive player to injury at some point can't be overstated. As much as there is to like about Andrew Luck, he will throw an interception here or there and with a rookie QB, you don't know how it will effect him, especially on the road.
I figure the Ravens will get one last win for their leader Ray Lewis, the man who made the transition of the Ravens moving to Baltimore easier. The man responsible for the type of football the Ravens have played for the last 15 years. Chuck Pagano hopefully will coach another day and when he does, the Colts will be even better, but the fact he's coaching this game is the story of the year. Too bad that story won't have a Hollywood ending.
Ravens win 24-7
Seattle at Washington: Spread: Seahawks by 3
The two hottest teams in football have to play in the opening round? It's quite unfortunate that one of these two teams must go home before the National Championship game. Can the Seahawks continue their dominant ways away from home? How injured is Robert Griffin III and can a lesser RGIII prevail when playing in front of a raucous crowd in Washington (first home playoff game for the Redskins since 1999)?
For the Seahawks, their improved play is because of Russell Wilson becoming an effective passer, making a good offense with Marshawn Lynch's running lethal with Seattle's now well-balanced offense, plus the threat of Wilson to run. The Redskins are always a team that's dangerous on the ground with Griffin and Alfred Morris and they are always more difficult in the passing game when Pierre Garcon is healthy. The Seahawks defense is better than Washington's, though the Redskins have improved as the year went along.
Best case for the Redskins: Seattle doesn't play well on the road, Griffin is healthy enough to be able to run a little bit, making the Seahawks defense honest. The Redskins rushing attack keeps the Seahawks offense off the field. Best case for the Seahawks: Griffin is still gimpy and there's no difference in the Seahawks recent play in Landover. I happen to think that I'd rather have 100% Russell Wilson over less than 100% RGIII and the Seahawks will get the road win.
Seahawks win 27-17
This week: 1-1
Season: 131-119-6
The Packers, on the other hand, played their absolute best game last night as Aaron Rodgers was in full control on offense and their defense was scary good, like they were in 2010. Yes, Joe Webb has a lot to do with that, but the Packers also didn't allow Adrian Peterson to hurt them and hold him to 99 yards on 22 carries is what I call holding him in check. Now they move on to San Francisco, for a rematch of the first game at Lambeau Field, which the 49ers made their opening statement that they weren't going anywhere this year and won a 30-22 game which the final score didn't show how much the Niners dominated. We have a whole week to see if in the Packers can get revenge; for now, there are two more playoff games worth previewing.
Indianapolis at Baltimore: Spread: Ravens by 7
Battle of old Baltimore NFL team vs new Baltimore team. Chuck Pagano faces his former defense. Ray Lewis' last game in Baltimore. The question is do the Colts end Lewis' career today or do the Ravens curtail the Chuck Strong movement this season? As much as I like what the Colts have done this year, asking them to win a road playoff game in Andrew Luck's first playoff start might be a lot.
Figure the Ravens will use a lot of Ray Rice, since the Colts are 29th in the league against the run. Joe Flacco doesn't inspire the utmost confidence, but as long as he can avoid turnovers, the Ravens will pass on the Colts as well (21st pass defense in the league). What helps the Colts is that this isn't a vintage Ravens defense, though the fact they lost nearly every major defensive player to injury at some point can't be overstated. As much as there is to like about Andrew Luck, he will throw an interception here or there and with a rookie QB, you don't know how it will effect him, especially on the road.
I figure the Ravens will get one last win for their leader Ray Lewis, the man who made the transition of the Ravens moving to Baltimore easier. The man responsible for the type of football the Ravens have played for the last 15 years. Chuck Pagano hopefully will coach another day and when he does, the Colts will be even better, but the fact he's coaching this game is the story of the year. Too bad that story won't have a Hollywood ending.
Ravens win 24-7
Seattle at Washington: Spread: Seahawks by 3
The two hottest teams in football have to play in the opening round? It's quite unfortunate that one of these two teams must go home before the National Championship game. Can the Seahawks continue their dominant ways away from home? How injured is Robert Griffin III and can a lesser RGIII prevail when playing in front of a raucous crowd in Washington (first home playoff game for the Redskins since 1999)?
For the Seahawks, their improved play is because of Russell Wilson becoming an effective passer, making a good offense with Marshawn Lynch's running lethal with Seattle's now well-balanced offense, plus the threat of Wilson to run. The Redskins are always a team that's dangerous on the ground with Griffin and Alfred Morris and they are always more difficult in the passing game when Pierre Garcon is healthy. The Seahawks defense is better than Washington's, though the Redskins have improved as the year went along.
Best case for the Redskins: Seattle doesn't play well on the road, Griffin is healthy enough to be able to run a little bit, making the Seahawks defense honest. The Redskins rushing attack keeps the Seahawks offense off the field. Best case for the Seahawks: Griffin is still gimpy and there's no difference in the Seahawks recent play in Landover. I happen to think that I'd rather have 100% Russell Wilson over less than 100% RGIII and the Seahawks will get the road win.
Seahawks win 27-17
This week: 1-1
Season: 131-119-6
Saturday, January 5, 2013
Wild Card Saturday
It's playoff time once again. One thing that the wild card round produces lately is a team that will make the Super Bowl. In the last seven seasons, only in 2009 did the two Super Bowl teams had byes; the previous 15 years, only five times did a team who played in the wild card round made it all the way to the Super Bowl. And if you look at the NFC, there are two teams who you can make the case should be more favored to to reach the Super Bowl from this round (Seahawks and Packers) then those with the byes (Falcons and 49ers).
UPDATE: Christian Ponder is dealing with bursitis in his arm. Joe Webb would start in that case. I think Webb gives the Vikings a better chance since he's more mobile and the Packers haven't seen him yet this year. Problem is he wouldn't be in any rhythm with his receivers, and it's awfully tough to ask Webb to win a road game within a few hours.
Looking at the slate of games, familiarity is the name of the game for these matchups. Houston and Cincinnati faced each other last year in the exact same place and timeslot. Minnesota and Green Bay just played last week in perhaps the best regular season game of the year. It's always familiar when the Colts return to Baltimore, but add the fact that Chuck Pagano was the defensive coordinator of the Ravens last year, and the familiarity is added. On the surface, there isn't much to work with for Seattle and Washington, but both teams play in the 2nd half of the season is very familiar as both teams finished 7-1 to get to this playoff game. Since it's Saturday, let's make start by preview the NBC doubleheader slate.
Cincinnati at Houston: Spread: Texans by 4.5
As recently as Week 13, the Texans were riding high on their way to home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Then they finished the year losing 3 of their final 4 games and now they must face a rematch with the Bengals from last year's wild card round. Everyone knows how well the Colts, Seahawks and Redskins played in the second half, but the Bengals played just as well to finish the season; going 7-1 after a 3-5 start. Cincinnati has made the playoffs for the second straight season, something they've only done once and that was with help of a shortened season (to be fair, this is the first time ever the Texans made the playoffs twice, though this is their only two playoff appearances).
The key to the success for the Bengals has been their defense, which is very strong up front and in the secondary. Carlos Dunlap has become a force at getting to the quarterback, joining an already effective combo of Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson. Losing Johnathan Joseph to the Texans hasn't hurt the Bengals as Leon Hall and Terrence Newman have been as good a CB combo as you can see in the NFL. Offensively, they need more consistency from Andy Dalton. He has weapons like A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham, yet Dalton will still make some head-scratching decisions.
Houston has struggled offensively as the season wore on, particularly in the passing game. What has become alarming is their defense since the OT win against Jacksonville has been giving up a ton of yards and points to opponents. If they are to go far in the playoffs, this has to improve, since the Texans were built on a strong defense.
A lot of signs to be worried if you're the Texans and the Bengals are very good defensively. I know I shouldn't pick Andy Dalton on the road, but I see the Texans finish their flame out and the Bengals will get their first road playoff win ever.
Bengals win 17-7
Minnesota at Green Bay: Spread: Packers by 7.5
Last week's Packers-Vikings had plenty on the line (first round bye for Green Bay, Adrian Peterson's chase for Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record) but the most important thing about last week was the Packers were guaranteed another game, while the Vikings needed to win. And the Vikings got the best game of the season from Christian Ponder and another performance from Peterson which left people wondering if he's human to prevail and reach the playoffs. Now, they get the rematch against the Packers, only this time it's in Green Bay and the Packers are now in win or go home mode.
A lot of what you see from the Vikings is the greatness of Peterson and a better defense when Jared Allen is creating havoc. Problem is that unless the defense is superior, a passing game is necessary for the Vikings to win. Unfortunately for them, Christian Ponder just doesn't add a passing game at most times. You can tell the difference in the Vikings chances in both games with the Packers. Peterson ran for 210 yards at Lambeau, then ran for 199 yards. Why did the Vikings win one and lose the other? Because Ponder threw for 234 yards and 3 TD's last week, whereas he threw for 119 yards on 12-25 passing with a touchdown and 2 INT's. So yeah, Christian Ponder is the key for the Vikings between winning and losing.
Now, let's add the fact that the Packers are healthy at WR and that Aaron Rodgers is have his most impressive season considering that he doesn't have a OL to write home about and have to worry about staying upright half the time. Having Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb and James Jones all ready to play makes Rodgers dangerous. Having Charles Woodson back (though not the player he's always been) can't help but help the Packers, if not for nothing, keeping Tramon Williams off the field.
Congrats on carrying the Vikings to the playoffs, AP. I know you'll show up, but I don't see the rest of the team doing so. Too much Rodgers, too much Ponder.
UPDATE: Christian Ponder is dealing with bursitis in his arm. Joe Webb would start in that case. I think Webb gives the Vikings a better chance since he's more mobile and the Packers haven't seen him yet this year. Problem is he wouldn't be in any rhythm with his receivers, and it's awfully tough to ask Webb to win a road game within a few hours.
Packers win 35-17 with Ponder. Packers win 35-24 with Joe Webb.
Last week: 8-8
Season record: 130-118-6
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Week 17 Picks
The final day of the NFL season is here. This tends to be a sad time whenever this day arrives, though the playoffs bring more joy (and heartbreak when you're a fan of the 11 teams who end up losing). We go into the final Sunday of the season with the AFC playoff field all set in terms of who's playing, with some haggling over seeding, while the NFC still has a mess to clean up. Here's a quick look at the scenarios going into today.
The Texans clinch home field advantage with a win. That's all they need to do. If they lose, the door opens for both the Patriots and the Broncos to take home-field away. The Broncos will get a bye with a win, while the Pats need a Broncos loss (along with a win). The Ravens can pass the Patriots if they win and the Pats lose, which the only result is that the Ravens will face the Bengals again and a second Pats-Colts showdown will occur. Colts and Bengals are locked in.
All we are guaranteed right now if the Falcons have home-field throughout. The biggest game in terms of the entire NFC playoff picture will be the Packers-Vikings. Green Bay clinches a first round bye with a win and opens the playoff door for the Giants and Bears (while giving the Redskins a backdoor possibility). A Vikings win puts them in the playoffs and allows the 49ers and Seahawks an opportunity to get a bye. 49ers win clinches the NFC West, Seattle wins it if they win and the Niners lose. If the Bears or Vikings win, the Giants are eliminated, while it makes the Cowboys-Redskins game a de facto playoff game. If neither win, the Redskins make it regardless of their result against Dallas, while the Giants would need a Washington win to make it (along with their own win today that they need).
Are we all caught up? Great, here's my final list of weekly picks (yes, picks will continue into the playoffs).
ATLANTA (-3) over Tampa Bay
I'm not picking the Falcons based on them playing their best lineup, that's for sure. I'm just sure that the Bucs have quit this season and don't see them coming through with a win today.
Jets (+3.5) over BUFFALO
We know all about the year the Jets have had. Lord knows we are fully aware of the Jets season. I must thank them for deflecting all the attention away as the Giants have squandered away an easy playoff berth. However, the Bills have been more of a failure since they had actual playoff aspirations and now the Chan Gailey Era will come to an end.
Baltimore (+3) over CINCINNATI
I'm only taking the Ravens because they might play like they have something to play for (I'd rather face the Bengals again than the Colts), while Cincy may as well rest their starters and possibly play just a bland offense.
INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5) over Houston
With head coach Chuck Pagano returning today after his battle with leukemia, I expect the best effort out of the Colts, who have ridden the wave of ChuckStrong to the playoffs. If this was a team like New England, I wouldn't expect a storybook ending. With the Texans, they are the perfect team.
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Carolina
This was a good try, Joe Vitt. I'm impressed the Saints are at 7-8 after starting the year 0-4. However, they already won when Sean Payton signed a contract extension to be the Saints head coach.
PITTSBURGH (-10) over Cleveland
Expect the Steelers to take out their frustrations for not making the playoffs out on the Browns. Looks like Pat Shurmur will be cast aside as well, but it does seem like the Browns are trending upward.
Jacksonville (+5) over TENNESSEE
Battle of two teams who appear to have whiffed on their QB choice back in the 2010 draft. We know this is true with Jacksonville and they are playing Chad Henne now because of this. The Titans are still seeing if Jake Locker is capable, but it's more likely to be false.
Oakland (+8.5) over SAN DIEGO
The last game of the Norv Turner Era (as well as the Norv Turner Death March) will end with a whimper. Rough year for the Raiders, but this was predetermined when they made the trade for Carson Palmer last year. Biggest question for the Chargers: Can Philip Rivers be saved?
GIANTS (-6.5) over Philadelphia
We've seen the Eagles go down this path of awfulness to finish out Andy Reid's tenure, but do they have enough to win against the Giants. Personally, I really hope the Giants get eliminated from the playoffs because they lost this game. Really hope to see the best of the Giants today.
DETROIT (+3) over Chicago
The Bears have the same opportunity as the Giants, with the same "win and a" quality to the day. I know the Lions tend to blow leads, but I don't see Chicago slowing them down like they did back in October. 9-7 year after a 7-1 start and Lovie Smith can start sweating.
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Miami
I know the Dolphins can get to .500 with a win, but the Pats will blow out Miami because anytime New England plays a close one as the first game vs an AFC East opponent, they dominate in the second meeting. They won by 7 in Miami, they'll win by a lot more than that now.
Kansas City (+16.5) over DENVER
This isn't a pick against the Broncos, but I think this points spread is way too high and the Chiefs defense is good enough to keep the margin closer (close means a couple TD's). Still, the Broncos will win and get the bye for Peyton Manning and co.
SEATTLE (-12) over St Louis
Good year for the Rams, but the Seahawks are the hottest team in football. Even if the 49ers win, I don't expect the Seahawks to give away this game at home.
SAN FRANCISCO (-16.5) over Arizona
Unlike Denver, I do think the 49ers are blowing out the Cardinals to clinch this division. The Cardinals don't just lose games to good teams, they get annihilated. Prediction: Aldon Smith breaks Michael Strahan's sacks record against the team who's given up the most sacks in the NFL.
MINNESOTA (+3) over Green Bay
I'd like to say that Adrian Peterson will break the all-time rushing record, but he will fall just short. I guess he'll have to take the consolation prize of making the playoffs and winning NFL MVP instead. I also happen to think the Packers playing in Round 1 will help them in the playoffs (which by the way, will be against these same Vikings, but in Lambeau).
WASHINGTON (-3) over Dallas
Sorry, Cowboys. I just don't believe you can win big games. Yes, it's not hard to pick the Redskins offense with RGIII under center. Yet, it's their improved defense that has me leaning toward the Skins. This leads to Seattle-Washington in the wild card round. The two hottest teams in the NFC will be gone in a week. Which proves how much you have to be hot to make a playoff run.
Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 122-110-6
The Texans clinch home field advantage with a win. That's all they need to do. If they lose, the door opens for both the Patriots and the Broncos to take home-field away. The Broncos will get a bye with a win, while the Pats need a Broncos loss (along with a win). The Ravens can pass the Patriots if they win and the Pats lose, which the only result is that the Ravens will face the Bengals again and a second Pats-Colts showdown will occur. Colts and Bengals are locked in.
All we are guaranteed right now if the Falcons have home-field throughout. The biggest game in terms of the entire NFC playoff picture will be the Packers-Vikings. Green Bay clinches a first round bye with a win and opens the playoff door for the Giants and Bears (while giving the Redskins a backdoor possibility). A Vikings win puts them in the playoffs and allows the 49ers and Seahawks an opportunity to get a bye. 49ers win clinches the NFC West, Seattle wins it if they win and the Niners lose. If the Bears or Vikings win, the Giants are eliminated, while it makes the Cowboys-Redskins game a de facto playoff game. If neither win, the Redskins make it regardless of their result against Dallas, while the Giants would need a Washington win to make it (along with their own win today that they need).
Are we all caught up? Great, here's my final list of weekly picks (yes, picks will continue into the playoffs).
ATLANTA (-3) over Tampa Bay
I'm not picking the Falcons based on them playing their best lineup, that's for sure. I'm just sure that the Bucs have quit this season and don't see them coming through with a win today.
Jets (+3.5) over BUFFALO
We know all about the year the Jets have had. Lord knows we are fully aware of the Jets season. I must thank them for deflecting all the attention away as the Giants have squandered away an easy playoff berth. However, the Bills have been more of a failure since they had actual playoff aspirations and now the Chan Gailey Era will come to an end.
Baltimore (+3) over CINCINNATI
I'm only taking the Ravens because they might play like they have something to play for (I'd rather face the Bengals again than the Colts), while Cincy may as well rest their starters and possibly play just a bland offense.
INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5) over Houston
With head coach Chuck Pagano returning today after his battle with leukemia, I expect the best effort out of the Colts, who have ridden the wave of ChuckStrong to the playoffs. If this was a team like New England, I wouldn't expect a storybook ending. With the Texans, they are the perfect team.
NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Carolina
This was a good try, Joe Vitt. I'm impressed the Saints are at 7-8 after starting the year 0-4. However, they already won when Sean Payton signed a contract extension to be the Saints head coach.
PITTSBURGH (-10) over Cleveland
Expect the Steelers to take out their frustrations for not making the playoffs out on the Browns. Looks like Pat Shurmur will be cast aside as well, but it does seem like the Browns are trending upward.
Jacksonville (+5) over TENNESSEE
Battle of two teams who appear to have whiffed on their QB choice back in the 2010 draft. We know this is true with Jacksonville and they are playing Chad Henne now because of this. The Titans are still seeing if Jake Locker is capable, but it's more likely to be false.
Oakland (+8.5) over SAN DIEGO
The last game of the Norv Turner Era (as well as the Norv Turner Death March) will end with a whimper. Rough year for the Raiders, but this was predetermined when they made the trade for Carson Palmer last year. Biggest question for the Chargers: Can Philip Rivers be saved?
GIANTS (-6.5) over Philadelphia
We've seen the Eagles go down this path of awfulness to finish out Andy Reid's tenure, but do they have enough to win against the Giants. Personally, I really hope the Giants get eliminated from the playoffs because they lost this game. Really hope to see the best of the Giants today.
DETROIT (+3) over Chicago
The Bears have the same opportunity as the Giants, with the same "win and a" quality to the day. I know the Lions tend to blow leads, but I don't see Chicago slowing them down like they did back in October. 9-7 year after a 7-1 start and Lovie Smith can start sweating.
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Miami
I know the Dolphins can get to .500 with a win, but the Pats will blow out Miami because anytime New England plays a close one as the first game vs an AFC East opponent, they dominate in the second meeting. They won by 7 in Miami, they'll win by a lot more than that now.
Kansas City (+16.5) over DENVER
This isn't a pick against the Broncos, but I think this points spread is way too high and the Chiefs defense is good enough to keep the margin closer (close means a couple TD's). Still, the Broncos will win and get the bye for Peyton Manning and co.
SEATTLE (-12) over St Louis
Good year for the Rams, but the Seahawks are the hottest team in football. Even if the 49ers win, I don't expect the Seahawks to give away this game at home.
SAN FRANCISCO (-16.5) over Arizona
Unlike Denver, I do think the 49ers are blowing out the Cardinals to clinch this division. The Cardinals don't just lose games to good teams, they get annihilated. Prediction: Aldon Smith breaks Michael Strahan's sacks record against the team who's given up the most sacks in the NFL.
MINNESOTA (+3) over Green Bay
I'd like to say that Adrian Peterson will break the all-time rushing record, but he will fall just short. I guess he'll have to take the consolation prize of making the playoffs and winning NFL MVP instead. I also happen to think the Packers playing in Round 1 will help them in the playoffs (which by the way, will be against these same Vikings, but in Lambeau).
WASHINGTON (-3) over Dallas
Sorry, Cowboys. I just don't believe you can win big games. Yes, it's not hard to pick the Redskins offense with RGIII under center. Yet, it's their improved defense that has me leaning toward the Skins. This leads to Seattle-Washington in the wild card round. The two hottest teams in the NFC will be gone in a week. Which proves how much you have to be hot to make a playoff run.
Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 122-110-6
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Week 16 Picks
With Week 16 beginning on a Saturday, I'm writing this weeks picks a day early. Two games left in the season and many playoff scenarios that are creeping closer to being decided. Here's my picks for the weekend.
Atlanta (-3.5) over DETROIT- Can't see the Falcons wasting away this game and put their likely home-field chance on the line in Week 17.
Oakland (+8.5) over CAROLINA- Battle of my fantasy QB's. In a related story, I missed the playoffs this year in that league.
New Orleans (+3) over DALLAS- Yeah, I have the Cowboys sticking it to their fans at home and a week earlier than they did last year.
GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Tennessee- Plenty for the Packers to play for, don't see the Titans coming close to win, especially if they play like they did in their win last Monday.
Minnesota (+8) over HOUSTON- Yes, Adrian Peterson is the sole reason I'm picking the Vikings.
New England (-14.5) over JACKSONVILLE- This is going to be a bloodbath.
Indianapolis (-7) over KANSAS CITY- Win here, and the Colts clinch and likely avoid a second trip to New England in the wild card round. I think that's important.
MIAMI (-4.5) over Buffalo- The Dolphins begin play with faint playoff hopes. Expect them to not be the ones who dash them, at least not against the Bills.
Washington (-6.5) over PHILADELPHIA- Honestly, I'd have more faith in the Eagles pulling an upset if they were on the road. As a Giants fan, I hope the last win in the Andy Reid Era comes tomorrow. If not, then I hope it happened already.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Cincinnati- No, I don't think the Bengals man up and win their way to the playoffs. Steelers continue their smoke and mirrors act for another week.
St. Louis (+3) over TAMPA BAY- This is the "What Could've Been" Bowl since this could have been a huge game for NFC purposes. At least the Rams aren't self-destructing, so I'll take the points.
San Diego (+2.5) over JETS- I really don't want to discuss about either team. Let's move on.
Cleveland (+13) over DENVER- I'm probably being a little cute picking the Browns, but perhaps the Broncos win a closer game than expected as they prepare for the playoffs. Plus, the Browns aren't all bad.
Chicago (-5.5) over ARIZONA- The cushiest schedule left for any playoff contender (who needs to win both games) begins for the Bears. No excuse if they lose tomorrow.
BALTIMORE (+2.5) over Giants- Figure the Ravens to get over their losing ways tomorrow. Just don't see the Giants winning down there. Always feel a little worried playing them.
San Francisco (Pick) over SEATTLE- If anyone's capable of winning in Seattle, it's the 49ers. Can't see the same success for Russell Wilson against Aldon Smith and Co, forcing the Seahawks to win the following week to clinch.
Last week: 7-8
Season: 112-105-5
Atlanta (-3.5) over DETROIT- Can't see the Falcons wasting away this game and put their likely home-field chance on the line in Week 17.
Oakland (+8.5) over CAROLINA- Battle of my fantasy QB's. In a related story, I missed the playoffs this year in that league.
New Orleans (+3) over DALLAS- Yeah, I have the Cowboys sticking it to their fans at home and a week earlier than they did last year.
GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Tennessee- Plenty for the Packers to play for, don't see the Titans coming close to win, especially if they play like they did in their win last Monday.
Minnesota (+8) over HOUSTON- Yes, Adrian Peterson is the sole reason I'm picking the Vikings.
New England (-14.5) over JACKSONVILLE- This is going to be a bloodbath.
Indianapolis (-7) over KANSAS CITY- Win here, and the Colts clinch and likely avoid a second trip to New England in the wild card round. I think that's important.
MIAMI (-4.5) over Buffalo- The Dolphins begin play with faint playoff hopes. Expect them to not be the ones who dash them, at least not against the Bills.
Washington (-6.5) over PHILADELPHIA- Honestly, I'd have more faith in the Eagles pulling an upset if they were on the road. As a Giants fan, I hope the last win in the Andy Reid Era comes tomorrow. If not, then I hope it happened already.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Cincinnati- No, I don't think the Bengals man up and win their way to the playoffs. Steelers continue their smoke and mirrors act for another week.
St. Louis (+3) over TAMPA BAY- This is the "What Could've Been" Bowl since this could have been a huge game for NFC purposes. At least the Rams aren't self-destructing, so I'll take the points.
San Diego (+2.5) over JETS- I really don't want to discuss about either team. Let's move on.
Cleveland (+13) over DENVER- I'm probably being a little cute picking the Browns, but perhaps the Broncos win a closer game than expected as they prepare for the playoffs. Plus, the Browns aren't all bad.
Chicago (-5.5) over ARIZONA- The cushiest schedule left for any playoff contender (who needs to win both games) begins for the Bears. No excuse if they lose tomorrow.
BALTIMORE (+2.5) over Giants- Figure the Ravens to get over their losing ways tomorrow. Just don't see the Giants winning down there. Always feel a little worried playing them.
San Francisco (Pick) over SEATTLE- If anyone's capable of winning in Seattle, it's the 49ers. Can't see the same success for Russell Wilson against Aldon Smith and Co, forcing the Seahawks to win the following week to clinch.
Last week: 7-8
Season: 112-105-5
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
AFC Playoff Picture
We begin the AFC Playoff Picture with a post-mortem on the N.Y. Jets, who lost in such spectacular fashion to the Titans. Five turnovers for the Jets, including four Mark Sanchez turnovers. Where the Jets go from here after two straight missed playoffs, who knows. Decisions will be made about Mike Tannenbaum, Rex Ryan and Sanchez (owed $8.5 million next season). The fact is, their final two games are utterly meaningless to the remainder of the AFC season. Here's how things stack up after Week 15.
Division Leaders
Houston (12-2)- Clinched AFC South. Last two games (Min, @Ind)
After getting obliterated by the Pats, the Texans bounced back with a win over the Colts to lock up the AFC South title. They are now a win away from home-field advantage (a Bronco or Patriot loss clinches a bye). I don't know who's going to have confidence in them in the postseason, but having home games is a good start. Still, it's not an easy schedule, so it's not time to
Denver (11-3)- Clinched AFC West. Last two games (Clev, KC)
The biggest winner from Sunday's games as they no longer have to worry about the Ravens and with their schedule, they should end up with a bye because of the Pats loss. What's also good is because they play sub .500 teams and the Texans play playoff contenders, they still have an outside shot at home-field throughout the playoffs.
New England (10-4)- Clinched AFC East. Last two games (@Jac, Mia)
The Patriots became the unquestioned AFC frontrunner after their dominant game over the Texans. If they are still considered to be a frontrunner, they likely will make the Super Bowl from the Wild Card round in that event. What's also potentially shaping up is a Divisional Round matchup of Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning in Denver (their first playoff game against one another since the 2006 AFC Championship game should it occur). A game like that would make the AFC Championship game anti-climatic.
Baltimore (9-5)- Clinched playoff berth. Last two games (NYG, @Cin)
Congrats to the Ravens for having the greatest backdoor clinching of a playoff spot since the 1986 Jets lost their last 5 games after starting 10-1. They have now lost 3 straight (would be 4 if the Chargers would have tackled Ray Rice) and continue to play quality teams to finish the year out. Would be fitting if the Ravens lose this week, only to see the Bengals lose to the Steelers and Baltimore gets to backdoor into a division title.
Wild Card Teams
Indianapolis (9-5)- Last two games (@KC, Hou)
Tough loss for the Colts, but having the Jets lose puts them all but in the playoffs. Only thing keeping the Colts from clinching is the potential of three teams tied at 9-7 and the tiebreaker coming down to strength of victory (which would have to be used because all the common opponents records would be 3-2). Of course, all the Colts need to do is beat the Chiefs and they avoid any of that.
Cincinnati (8-6)- Last two games (@Pit, Bal)
Momentarily, the Bengals are in the sixth spot. Unlike the Vikings in the NFC, the Bengals control their destiny. Win on Sunday over Pittsburgh and they are playoff-bound again. Lose, and they become Browns fans. Cincinnati still has AFC North hopes, but the Ravens must lose to the Giants in order for their game with Baltimore in Week 17 be for a division and a home game.
Contenders
Pittsburgh (7-7)- Last two games (Cin, Clev)
They lost to Dallas, but their game with the Bengals made this one expendable. It only means they have to finish the sweep of Cincinnati in order to make the playoffs. If they lose, it's over. It also means they will need to beat the Browns in Week 17 instead of clinching next week.
Miami (6-8)- Last two games (Buf, @NE)
I didn't want to bring back Miami, but they win a tiebreaker if there's a three way tie at 8-8, which happens if the Steelers win Sunday and both teams lose in Week 17. More than likely, the Dolphins won't beat the Patriots and miss the playoffs again. Still, it's not impossible for them to make it at this point and I guess that's good enough for this list of teams.
Division Leaders
Houston (12-2)- Clinched AFC South. Last two games (Min, @Ind)
After getting obliterated by the Pats, the Texans bounced back with a win over the Colts to lock up the AFC South title. They are now a win away from home-field advantage (a Bronco or Patriot loss clinches a bye). I don't know who's going to have confidence in them in the postseason, but having home games is a good start. Still, it's not an easy schedule, so it's not time to
Denver (11-3)- Clinched AFC West. Last two games (Clev, KC)
The biggest winner from Sunday's games as they no longer have to worry about the Ravens and with their schedule, they should end up with a bye because of the Pats loss. What's also good is because they play sub .500 teams and the Texans play playoff contenders, they still have an outside shot at home-field throughout the playoffs.
New England (10-4)- Clinched AFC East. Last two games (@Jac, Mia)
The Patriots became the unquestioned AFC frontrunner after their dominant game over the Texans. If they are still considered to be a frontrunner, they likely will make the Super Bowl from the Wild Card round in that event. What's also potentially shaping up is a Divisional Round matchup of Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning in Denver (their first playoff game against one another since the 2006 AFC Championship game should it occur). A game like that would make the AFC Championship game anti-climatic.
Baltimore (9-5)- Clinched playoff berth. Last two games (NYG, @Cin)
Congrats to the Ravens for having the greatest backdoor clinching of a playoff spot since the 1986 Jets lost their last 5 games after starting 10-1. They have now lost 3 straight (would be 4 if the Chargers would have tackled Ray Rice) and continue to play quality teams to finish the year out. Would be fitting if the Ravens lose this week, only to see the Bengals lose to the Steelers and Baltimore gets to backdoor into a division title.
Wild Card Teams
Indianapolis (9-5)- Last two games (@KC, Hou)
Tough loss for the Colts, but having the Jets lose puts them all but in the playoffs. Only thing keeping the Colts from clinching is the potential of three teams tied at 9-7 and the tiebreaker coming down to strength of victory (which would have to be used because all the common opponents records would be 3-2). Of course, all the Colts need to do is beat the Chiefs and they avoid any of that.
Cincinnati (8-6)- Last two games (@Pit, Bal)
Momentarily, the Bengals are in the sixth spot. Unlike the Vikings in the NFC, the Bengals control their destiny. Win on Sunday over Pittsburgh and they are playoff-bound again. Lose, and they become Browns fans. Cincinnati still has AFC North hopes, but the Ravens must lose to the Giants in order for their game with Baltimore in Week 17 be for a division and a home game.
Contenders
Pittsburgh (7-7)- Last two games (Cin, Clev)
They lost to Dallas, but their game with the Bengals made this one expendable. It only means they have to finish the sweep of Cincinnati in order to make the playoffs. If they lose, it's over. It also means they will need to beat the Browns in Week 17 instead of clinching next week.
Miami (6-8)- Last two games (Buf, @NE)
I didn't want to bring back Miami, but they win a tiebreaker if there's a three way tie at 8-8, which happens if the Steelers win Sunday and both teams lose in Week 17. More than likely, the Dolphins won't beat the Patriots and miss the playoffs again. Still, it's not impossible for them to make it at this point and I guess that's good enough for this list of teams.
Monday, December 17, 2012
NFC Playoff Picture
A topsy-turvy week in the NFL only made the NFC playoff picture even more murky. While those at the top strengthened their positions, there were some shifts for the first time since I started blogging about playoff scenarios. This week we drop the Bucs and the Rams from the list of teams alive as both lost games last week that neither could afford to do. Sorry, St. Louis; 8-7-1 isn't making the playoffs. Let's see how things stand after the NFC completes Week 15.
Division Leaders
Atlanta (12-2)- Clinched NFC South. Last two games (@Det, TB)
Losing to the Giants yesterday would not have really impacted their chances at home-field in the playoffs, as the Lions and Bucs are a mess right now. What it did was give confidence to anyone who's doubted the Falcons as a contender for a championship (as well as some revenge for last year's playoff loss). The Falcons showed up in a big way and now we know they are capable of that against a good team.
San Francisco (10-3-1)- Clinched playoff berth. Last two games (@Sea, Ari)
The 49ers almost blew it against the Pats, but didn't lose a game leading by 28. By winning, they still have margin of error in case they lose in Seattle this week, finishing the year with the sorry Cardinals. They also still control their destiny in terms of getting a first round bye (though they don't have margin of error in that regard).
Green Bay (10-4)- Clinched NFC North. Last two games (Ten, @Min)
I don't think anyone early in the season thought that not only would the Packers pass the Bears, but end the division race with two games left in doing so. Now, the Packers can only be concerned with getting a week off. Facing the Titans at home will be helpful; facing a Vikings team who might need the win to clinch a playoff berth will be a little more difficult.
Washington (8-6)- Last two games (@Phi, Dal)
No Robert Griffin III? No problem. Kirk Cousins was plenty for the Redskins in their win over the Browns and because of the Giants loss, they take over the NFC East lead. They control their own destiny (in fact all the NFC East teams do); two wins and they are NFC East champs for the first time since 1999. It's still too soon to contemplate what will happen if the Redskins finish 9-7, though I would doubt they make the playoffs in that event.
Wild Card Teams
Seattle (9-5)- Last two games (SF, Stl)
Another dominant win for the Seahawks over the Bills makes them the hottest team in the league. I'd be surprised if they lose both of these games they have left, though if they did, the playoff picture would explode open. Plenty of interested teams will be huddled to the television next Sunday night. One thing is for sure; if the Seahawks win, they clinch a playoff berth because of their wins over Minnesota and Chicago, plus the Redskins-Cowboys showdown.
Minnesota (8-6)- Last two games (@Hou, GB)
For the moment, the Vikings are in, though that has to do with the fact they played one more conference game than the Cowboys. The problem for the Vikings is that they don't control their own destiny. They need another Giants loss to have any chance at a wild card berth; not to mention beating both the Texans and the Packers. Win or lose, it's still be a tremendous year for Adrian Peterson and they wouldn't be here if not for him.
Contenders
Dallas (8-6)- Last two games (NO, @Wash)
The next team that controls its own destiny as two wins for the Cowboys wins the NFC East for them. Everything is shaping up that the last game of 2012 is Dallas @ Washington (unless the Vikings get a win and in situation, plus Adrian Peterson gets a chance to break Eric Dickerson's record). This is a tricky game for Dallas, however. They lose here, and they open the door for the Giants to get the division (assuming the Cowboys beat the Redskins a week later.) Redskins would still own a tiebreak in that scenario, so the Cowboys better win this week.
N.Y. Giants (8-6)- Last two games (@Balt, Phil)
I know they are ranked 9th today, but they control their playoff destiny, while the Bears don't. The Giants win their last two games, they are in the playoffs. They get the division if both Dallas and Washington get to 7 losses (one loses this week, then that loser beats the team that won in their matchup). Still, you continue to be baffled by this team who continuously had the playoffs handed to them (especially back in Week 8), and has squandered their chances to need to win these two to be able to get a wild card berth.
Chicago (8-6)- Last two games (@Ari, @Det)
Like the Giants, the Bears also squandered early season control (7-1) into a fight for their life. Unlike the Giants, the Bears need help to make it. Fortunately for the Bears, their schedule is easy and their rivals schedules are harder. If the Bears don't finish 10-6, they have only themselves to blame for missing the playoffs. Missing at 10-6, while bad after the 7-1, isn't a failure by the team because the Cards and Lions are awful and you just can't lose to either when you need to win both, especially for a team like Chicago, who beat up on bad teams.
Stay tuned tomorrow for the AFC Playoff Picture, which will be finalized after the Jets game tonight.
Division Leaders
Atlanta (12-2)- Clinched NFC South. Last two games (@Det, TB)
Losing to the Giants yesterday would not have really impacted their chances at home-field in the playoffs, as the Lions and Bucs are a mess right now. What it did was give confidence to anyone who's doubted the Falcons as a contender for a championship (as well as some revenge for last year's playoff loss). The Falcons showed up in a big way and now we know they are capable of that against a good team.
San Francisco (10-3-1)- Clinched playoff berth. Last two games (@Sea, Ari)
The 49ers almost blew it against the Pats, but didn't lose a game leading by 28. By winning, they still have margin of error in case they lose in Seattle this week, finishing the year with the sorry Cardinals. They also still control their destiny in terms of getting a first round bye (though they don't have margin of error in that regard).
Green Bay (10-4)- Clinched NFC North. Last two games (Ten, @Min)
I don't think anyone early in the season thought that not only would the Packers pass the Bears, but end the division race with two games left in doing so. Now, the Packers can only be concerned with getting a week off. Facing the Titans at home will be helpful; facing a Vikings team who might need the win to clinch a playoff berth will be a little more difficult.
Washington (8-6)- Last two games (@Phi, Dal)
No Robert Griffin III? No problem. Kirk Cousins was plenty for the Redskins in their win over the Browns and because of the Giants loss, they take over the NFC East lead. They control their own destiny (in fact all the NFC East teams do); two wins and they are NFC East champs for the first time since 1999. It's still too soon to contemplate what will happen if the Redskins finish 9-7, though I would doubt they make the playoffs in that event.
Wild Card Teams
Seattle (9-5)- Last two games (SF, Stl)
Another dominant win for the Seahawks over the Bills makes them the hottest team in the league. I'd be surprised if they lose both of these games they have left, though if they did, the playoff picture would explode open. Plenty of interested teams will be huddled to the television next Sunday night. One thing is for sure; if the Seahawks win, they clinch a playoff berth because of their wins over Minnesota and Chicago, plus the Redskins-Cowboys showdown.
Minnesota (8-6)- Last two games (@Hou, GB)
For the moment, the Vikings are in, though that has to do with the fact they played one more conference game than the Cowboys. The problem for the Vikings is that they don't control their own destiny. They need another Giants loss to have any chance at a wild card berth; not to mention beating both the Texans and the Packers. Win or lose, it's still be a tremendous year for Adrian Peterson and they wouldn't be here if not for him.
Contenders
Dallas (8-6)- Last two games (NO, @Wash)
The next team that controls its own destiny as two wins for the Cowboys wins the NFC East for them. Everything is shaping up that the last game of 2012 is Dallas @ Washington (unless the Vikings get a win and in situation, plus Adrian Peterson gets a chance to break Eric Dickerson's record). This is a tricky game for Dallas, however. They lose here, and they open the door for the Giants to get the division (assuming the Cowboys beat the Redskins a week later.) Redskins would still own a tiebreak in that scenario, so the Cowboys better win this week.
N.Y. Giants (8-6)- Last two games (@Balt, Phil)
I know they are ranked 9th today, but they control their playoff destiny, while the Bears don't. The Giants win their last two games, they are in the playoffs. They get the division if both Dallas and Washington get to 7 losses (one loses this week, then that loser beats the team that won in their matchup). Still, you continue to be baffled by this team who continuously had the playoffs handed to them (especially back in Week 8), and has squandered their chances to need to win these two to be able to get a wild card berth.
Chicago (8-6)- Last two games (@Ari, @Det)
Like the Giants, the Bears also squandered early season control (7-1) into a fight for their life. Unlike the Giants, the Bears need help to make it. Fortunately for the Bears, their schedule is easy and their rivals schedules are harder. If the Bears don't finish 10-6, they have only themselves to blame for missing the playoffs. Missing at 10-6, while bad after the 7-1, isn't a failure by the team because the Cards and Lions are awful and you just can't lose to either when you need to win both, especially for a team like Chicago, who beat up on bad teams.
Stay tuned tomorrow for the AFC Playoff Picture, which will be finalized after the Jets game tonight.
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Week 15 Picks
First things first, I want to commend the NFL for allowing the Jets, Giants and Pats to pay tribute to the victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre by allowing all types of decals on their helmets. The league has many times been all too willingly to be super strict on what goes on an NFL uniform and for once, the league isn't on the wrong side of an issue. We also see once again how great a person Victor Cruz is after reading this story about Jack Pinto.
We finally reached Week 15, a week filled with compelling matchups that will determine playoff seeding (Broncos-Ravens, Pats-49ers), division titles (Texans-Colts, Packers-Bears), and season survival (Steelers-Cowboys, Rams-Vikings). Some of the playoff picture will clear up, at least involving those well on the outside. Some losses today will be felt by teams in a couple weeks, even if today doesn't knock them out. Here's my picks.
Cincinnati (-4.5) over PHILADELPHIA- I didn't make any kind of pick on this one, so I'm not taking any credit or blame for the Bengals loss. So glad to be finished with Thursday Night games.
Giants (+1) over ATLANTA- Road game for the Giants with equals a statement game which equals a must-win for the team. I'm more worried about Philly in Week 17 than the Falcons today. Question is if Atlanta can avoid what happened to the Texans (though not necessarily 42-14 type happening).
BALTIMORE (-3) over Denver- Terrell Suggs is back for the Ravens this week. I think this is enough to get over with a win today. Besides, the Broncos would be staring down 11 wins in a row to finish the regular season (and maybe still not getting a bye) if they win.
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO- The Packers can clinch the division today with a win at Soldier Field. It's been a rough go for the Bears lately and this week isn't easier. The Bears should lose and suddenly open up the NFC Wild Card for all the 7-6 teams.
CLEVELAND (-3) over Washington- If RGIII was playing, I'd pick the Redskins. It's not that I don't think Kirk Cousins can help Washington win, it's that the Browns are playing some good football now and it would be difficult to beat them without your best player.
Indianapolis (+10) over HOUSTON- No way should the Texans be favored by double digits over anyone (well, the Cardinals), but especially not a 9-4 Colts team. If there's a better CHUCKSTRONG game, this is it as the AFC South is there for the taking.
Jacksonville (+7.5) over MIAMI- This is Chad Henne's revenge game! Alright, that's enough laughing. Henne at least puts the Jags in a position to win games, unlike Blaine Gabbert. The half point here is too enticing.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Tampa Bay- The Saints officially eliminate the Bucs today as Drew Brees will tear apart that defense. Expect plenty of scoring as Doug Martin gets to run against the Saints.
Minnesota (+2.5) over ST LOUIS- The Rams have been a nice story this year and Jeff Fisher has to be commended for turning the team around despite a weak offense. Adrian Peterson has been one of the top 3 stories of this season. He has a great chance for 2,000 yards and can carry the Vikings to the playoffs without a real QB. It won't be the Rams standing in the way of that.
Detroit (-6.5) over ARIZONA- It's nice to know that you are playing a team who isn't capable of rallying from a 14 point deficit. Which means all the Lions have to do is score like they have all year and not give points away and victory is a synch.
Seattle (-4.5) over Buffalo (in Toronto)- I know the Bills count these as home games, but this isn't a real home game. Fact is the Seahawks are better and should easily win. Bills get to start looking out for 2013.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Carolina- Figure the Chargers continue their typical good play in December and hope the Steelers lose again, then beat the Bengals...oh who am I kidding. It's over for Norv. The death march continues, win or lose.
Kansas City (+4) over OAKLAND- Both teams have given up, but something tells me the Chiefs would be more motivated than the Raiders. Just stay away, but if you must, take the points and don't even watch this.
DALLAS (-1) over Pittsburgh- I might be making my most foolish pick ever, but somehow, I think the Cowboys get the win today. There's just something I don't like about the Steelers. Also, when in doubt, go with NFC > AFC.
San Francisco (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND- Potential Super Bowl preview in Foxboro. Except at home against the Giants, the 49ers have come to play in their statement games. No better statement than to win in New England after the Pats put up 42 on a respected Texans defense (at least was respected).
TENNESSEE (-1.5) over Jets- The dream for the Jets dies in Nashville and that would be the best thing to happen for the team. They can begin a process to change the culture there or at least get rid of Mike Tannenbaum and get a better GM.
Last week: 5-11
Season: 105-97-5
We finally reached Week 15, a week filled with compelling matchups that will determine playoff seeding (Broncos-Ravens, Pats-49ers), division titles (Texans-Colts, Packers-Bears), and season survival (Steelers-Cowboys, Rams-Vikings). Some of the playoff picture will clear up, at least involving those well on the outside. Some losses today will be felt by teams in a couple weeks, even if today doesn't knock them out. Here's my picks.
Cincinnati (-4.5) over PHILADELPHIA- I didn't make any kind of pick on this one, so I'm not taking any credit or blame for the Bengals loss. So glad to be finished with Thursday Night games.
Giants (+1) over ATLANTA- Road game for the Giants with equals a statement game which equals a must-win for the team. I'm more worried about Philly in Week 17 than the Falcons today. Question is if Atlanta can avoid what happened to the Texans (though not necessarily 42-14 type happening).
BALTIMORE (-3) over Denver- Terrell Suggs is back for the Ravens this week. I think this is enough to get over with a win today. Besides, the Broncos would be staring down 11 wins in a row to finish the regular season (and maybe still not getting a bye) if they win.
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO- The Packers can clinch the division today with a win at Soldier Field. It's been a rough go for the Bears lately and this week isn't easier. The Bears should lose and suddenly open up the NFC Wild Card for all the 7-6 teams.
CLEVELAND (-3) over Washington- If RGIII was playing, I'd pick the Redskins. It's not that I don't think Kirk Cousins can help Washington win, it's that the Browns are playing some good football now and it would be difficult to beat them without your best player.
Indianapolis (+10) over HOUSTON- No way should the Texans be favored by double digits over anyone (well, the Cardinals), but especially not a 9-4 Colts team. If there's a better CHUCKSTRONG game, this is it as the AFC South is there for the taking.
Jacksonville (+7.5) over MIAMI- This is Chad Henne's revenge game! Alright, that's enough laughing. Henne at least puts the Jags in a position to win games, unlike Blaine Gabbert. The half point here is too enticing.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Tampa Bay- The Saints officially eliminate the Bucs today as Drew Brees will tear apart that defense. Expect plenty of scoring as Doug Martin gets to run against the Saints.
Minnesota (+2.5) over ST LOUIS- The Rams have been a nice story this year and Jeff Fisher has to be commended for turning the team around despite a weak offense. Adrian Peterson has been one of the top 3 stories of this season. He has a great chance for 2,000 yards and can carry the Vikings to the playoffs without a real QB. It won't be the Rams standing in the way of that.
Detroit (-6.5) over ARIZONA- It's nice to know that you are playing a team who isn't capable of rallying from a 14 point deficit. Which means all the Lions have to do is score like they have all year and not give points away and victory is a synch.
Seattle (-4.5) over Buffalo (in Toronto)- I know the Bills count these as home games, but this isn't a real home game. Fact is the Seahawks are better and should easily win. Bills get to start looking out for 2013.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Carolina- Figure the Chargers continue their typical good play in December and hope the Steelers lose again, then beat the Bengals...oh who am I kidding. It's over for Norv. The death march continues, win or lose.
Kansas City (+4) over OAKLAND- Both teams have given up, but something tells me the Chiefs would be more motivated than the Raiders. Just stay away, but if you must, take the points and don't even watch this.
DALLAS (-1) over Pittsburgh- I might be making my most foolish pick ever, but somehow, I think the Cowboys get the win today. There's just something I don't like about the Steelers. Also, when in doubt, go with NFC > AFC.
San Francisco (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND- Potential Super Bowl preview in Foxboro. Except at home against the Giants, the 49ers have come to play in their statement games. No better statement than to win in New England after the Pats put up 42 on a respected Texans defense (at least was respected).
TENNESSEE (-1.5) over Jets- The dream for the Jets dies in Nashville and that would be the best thing to happen for the team. They can begin a process to change the culture there or at least get rid of Mike Tannenbaum and get a better GM.
Last week: 5-11
Season: 105-97-5
Monday, December 10, 2012
NFC Playoff Picture
Last week, when I debuted the new playoff picture series, I started with the AFC because they were finished with their week before the NFC. This week, the tables turn as the NFC has completed 13 games. For this week's edition, we have to eliminate the Saints from our list. Their 52-27 loss to the Giants puts them at 5-8 and looks like needs to win out, needs Seattle/Chicago to lose out and hope tiebreakers go their way. So, it's over for the Saints. Here's how the NFC looks after Week 14.
Divison Leaders
Atlanta (11-2)- Clinched NFC South. Last 3 games (NYG, @Det, TB)
The Falcons suffered their second loss of the season yesterday against the Panthers and saw their lead shrink as all of other NFC division leaders won. It's not panic time in Atlanta as the Falcons are still in great shape to clinch home-field throughout the playoffs.
San Francisco (9-3-1)- Last 3 games (@NE, @Sea, Ari)
Bounce back win for the Niners at home to maintain the spot for a first-round bye. Looking at the schedule, playing the Cardinals at home should get them their 10th win, which clinches a playoff spot. That's a good thing, because their next two games could determine if the 49ers are winning the division with a bye or perhaps being forced to start the playoffs on the road.
Green Bay (9-4)- Last 3 games (@Chi, Ten, @Min)
It's always nice to play the Lions since they know how to gift teams wins, no matter how much they lead in the game. Because of the Bears loss, the Packers can clinch the NFC North next week if they beat the Bears. Getting the win means the Packers can focus on trying to get the bye as the Titans at home should be easy. A loss to Chicago, however, opens the door for someone to pass them (and remember the Seahawks own the tiebreaker over them).
N.Y. Giants (8-5)- Last 3 games (@Atl, @Balt, Phil)
The Giants offense looked dominant (except when they were careless) against the Saints and maintained their NFC East lead. Oh, but what could have been as both the Redskins and Cowboys won games they were on the brink of losing. The Giants lead stays at one game, and the schedule continues to get tougher. No rest yet for the defending champs.
Wild Card Teams
Seattle (8-5)- Last 3 games (@Buf in Toronto, SF, Stl)
There aren't enough superlatives to describe the Seahawks 58-0 win over the Cardinals, so all I can think is how the Seahawks can still very easily win out and get a first-round bye. To do that, they need the Pats to beat the Niners next Sunday (something that's very possible). They could also use a Packers loss to someone before the season ends. At the very least, a playoff berth looks very good for the Seahawks.
Chicago (8-5)- Last 3 games (GB, @Ari, @Det)
The Bears look like a sinking ship right now (lost 4 of 5) and getting the Packers this week is the last thing they need. One more loss opens the door for all three 7-6 teams to get in the playoffs as a wild card. Having the Cards left on the schedule is very helpful, but let's be honest, it will all come down to that game in Detroit. They also are the leading candidate in the NFC to lose a game they should win down the stretch.
The Contenders
Washington (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Clev, @Phil, Dal)
What happens when you're driving for the winning score and Robert Griffin III gets hurt? Well, the Redskins showed that they'll win the game anyway. Losing yesterday would have put Washington down two games with three left; now they are still a game behind the Giants/Seahawks/Bears are still the most dangerous of the non-playoff teams. They still have to win out to have a chance at the playoffs, because you can't count on 9 wins to be enough for the playoffs. Not in this conference.
Dallas (7-6)- Last 3 games (Pit, NO, @Wash)
The Cowboys were able to win yesterday despite the tragedy surrounding their team and a nine point 4th quarter deficit. Because of the win, Dallas is still in the thick of the NFC race, though the schedule doesn't get easier. It looks like that final game between the Cowboys and the Redskins could be the decider of the last playoff spot, assuming the Bears swoon continues or the Giants schedule gets the best of them.
Minnesota (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Stl, @Hou, GB)
Yes, the Vikings are still in the hunt for a playoff berth. Another great game for Adrian Peterson gave the Vikings a win over the Bears which helps them in case of a tiebreaker. They have an interesting schedule left as they could be playing both the Texans and Packers after they clinched their seeds in the playoffs. I'm still surprised that the Vikings have survived this second half schedule thus far to remain in the race. The biggest negative for the Vikings is they lose tiebreakers to both Dallas and Washington and need both to lose down the stretch to move ahead in toward a playoff spot.
St. Louis (6-6-1)- Last 3 games (Min, @TB, @Sea)
The only reason I still have the Rams in this part of the playoff list is because if a playoff spot can be had with 9 wins, the Rams clinch if they are 9-6-1. That's the only way the Rams make the playoffs, so I leave them here. The schedule is reasonably tough, but could be interesting when they have to play the Seahawks if they lose to the Niners. Potential play-in game once again between these two teams.
Not mathematically out, but need a whole lot of help
Tampa Bay (6-7)-Last 3 games (@NO, Stl, @Atl)
Killer loss yesterday against the sorry Eagles. Completely brutal. Being at 7-6 at least keeps the Bucs with a reasonable chance to make it. Now, they need too much to happen and depending on next week's results, they could be out of the picture win or lose.
Divison Leaders
Atlanta (11-2)- Clinched NFC South. Last 3 games (NYG, @Det, TB)
The Falcons suffered their second loss of the season yesterday against the Panthers and saw their lead shrink as all of other NFC division leaders won. It's not panic time in Atlanta as the Falcons are still in great shape to clinch home-field throughout the playoffs.
San Francisco (9-3-1)- Last 3 games (@NE, @Sea, Ari)
Bounce back win for the Niners at home to maintain the spot for a first-round bye. Looking at the schedule, playing the Cardinals at home should get them their 10th win, which clinches a playoff spot. That's a good thing, because their next two games could determine if the 49ers are winning the division with a bye or perhaps being forced to start the playoffs on the road.
Green Bay (9-4)- Last 3 games (@Chi, Ten, @Min)
It's always nice to play the Lions since they know how to gift teams wins, no matter how much they lead in the game. Because of the Bears loss, the Packers can clinch the NFC North next week if they beat the Bears. Getting the win means the Packers can focus on trying to get the bye as the Titans at home should be easy. A loss to Chicago, however, opens the door for someone to pass them (and remember the Seahawks own the tiebreaker over them).
N.Y. Giants (8-5)- Last 3 games (@Atl, @Balt, Phil)
The Giants offense looked dominant (except when they were careless) against the Saints and maintained their NFC East lead. Oh, but what could have been as both the Redskins and Cowboys won games they were on the brink of losing. The Giants lead stays at one game, and the schedule continues to get tougher. No rest yet for the defending champs.
Wild Card Teams
Seattle (8-5)- Last 3 games (@Buf in Toronto, SF, Stl)
There aren't enough superlatives to describe the Seahawks 58-0 win over the Cardinals, so all I can think is how the Seahawks can still very easily win out and get a first-round bye. To do that, they need the Pats to beat the Niners next Sunday (something that's very possible). They could also use a Packers loss to someone before the season ends. At the very least, a playoff berth looks very good for the Seahawks.
Chicago (8-5)- Last 3 games (GB, @Ari, @Det)
The Bears look like a sinking ship right now (lost 4 of 5) and getting the Packers this week is the last thing they need. One more loss opens the door for all three 7-6 teams to get in the playoffs as a wild card. Having the Cards left on the schedule is very helpful, but let's be honest, it will all come down to that game in Detroit. They also are the leading candidate in the NFC to lose a game they should win down the stretch.
The Contenders
Washington (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Clev, @Phil, Dal)
What happens when you're driving for the winning score and Robert Griffin III gets hurt? Well, the Redskins showed that they'll win the game anyway. Losing yesterday would have put Washington down two games with three left; now they are still a game behind the Giants/Seahawks/Bears are still the most dangerous of the non-playoff teams. They still have to win out to have a chance at the playoffs, because you can't count on 9 wins to be enough for the playoffs. Not in this conference.
Dallas (7-6)- Last 3 games (Pit, NO, @Wash)
The Cowboys were able to win yesterday despite the tragedy surrounding their team and a nine point 4th quarter deficit. Because of the win, Dallas is still in the thick of the NFC race, though the schedule doesn't get easier. It looks like that final game between the Cowboys and the Redskins could be the decider of the last playoff spot, assuming the Bears swoon continues or the Giants schedule gets the best of them.
Minnesota (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Stl, @Hou, GB)
Yes, the Vikings are still in the hunt for a playoff berth. Another great game for Adrian Peterson gave the Vikings a win over the Bears which helps them in case of a tiebreaker. They have an interesting schedule left as they could be playing both the Texans and Packers after they clinched their seeds in the playoffs. I'm still surprised that the Vikings have survived this second half schedule thus far to remain in the race. The biggest negative for the Vikings is they lose tiebreakers to both Dallas and Washington and need both to lose down the stretch to move ahead in toward a playoff spot.
St. Louis (6-6-1)- Last 3 games (Min, @TB, @Sea)
The only reason I still have the Rams in this part of the playoff list is because if a playoff spot can be had with 9 wins, the Rams clinch if they are 9-6-1. That's the only way the Rams make the playoffs, so I leave them here. The schedule is reasonably tough, but could be interesting when they have to play the Seahawks if they lose to the Niners. Potential play-in game once again between these two teams.
Not mathematically out, but need a whole lot of help
Tampa Bay (6-7)-Last 3 games (@NO, Stl, @Atl)
Killer loss yesterday against the sorry Eagles. Completely brutal. Being at 7-6 at least keeps the Bucs with a reasonable chance to make it. Now, they need too much to happen and depending on next week's results, they could be out of the picture win or lose.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Week 14 Picks
This week's slate of games is more appetizer than the entree which is next week. Next week has Giants-Falcons, Packers-Bears, Steelers-Cowboys, Broncos-Ravens and 49ers-Patriots, among others. That doesn't mean this week doesn't have big games, but none as huge as next week. Even still, there are plenty of intriguing matchups that should clear up a little more of the playoff picture.
Denver (-10) over OAKLAND- Happened Thursday night, but because I was at work and getting teased by the NHL, I didn't write a picks post. Tweeted this about the game. Nice to finally get a Thursday game spot on.
BUFFALO (-3) over St. Louis- After the great win against the 49ers, I see a letdown for the Rams, just as they did against the Jets after the tie with San Francisco. Bills fans only have to look back on the losses to Tennessee and the 2nd Pats game as to why they are barely still alive instead of in the heart of the playoff race.
Atlanta (-3) over CAROLINA- Why would the Falcons stop winning close games now? I also happen to think that Atlanta will win by a couple of scores just to screw with everyone who's been annoyed by their ability to barely be 11-1.
CINCINNATI (-3) over Dallas- Another awful tragedy in the NFL, this time with the stupidity of drinking and driving. No excuse for that to happen.
Kansas City (+7) over CLEVELAND- I know the Browns are playing better football and the Chiefs are the worst team in the league, but Cleveland should never be favored by seven over anyone.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Tennessee- Case and point, the Colts are giving less than the Browns at home, even though they look playoff bound. Huge day for Andrew Luck against the porous Titans defense.
Jets (-3) over JACKSONVILLE- This is the perfect spot to save Mark Sanchez's Jets career. The Jags are still with Maurice Jones-Drew and have Cecil Shorts and Rashad Jennings out. Meanwhile, they are 28th and 31st in pass defense and run defense, respectively. And the Sanchize is on the road! If he can't play well here, he never will. Note: Tim Tebow is active and Greg McElroy isn't. Complete zoo with the Jets.
MINNESOTA (+3) over Chicago- Everyone's looking ahead to Packers-Bears for the NFC North title next week, but a trip to the dome puts the Vikings back in the race. Big day for Adrian Peterson and rough day for Jay Cutler is ahead.
PITTSBURGH (-8) over San Diego- 10am PST start for the Chargers, plus it's the Norv Turner Death March, plus Ben Roethlisberger is back. And the Steelers defense is getting healthier, as while LaMarr Woodley and Ike Taylor are out, Troy Polamalu has returned and James Harrison is starting to play like his normal self.
TAMPA BAY (-7) over Philadelphia- Unless the Eagles return another punt for a TD to get a late cover, I'm pretty sure the Bucs will have their way with them. Doug Martin must be licking his chops to take on this defense.
WASHINGTON (-2) over Baltimore- No Terrell Suggs for the Ravens and it's too difficult to stop the Redskins and Robert Griffin III without your full defensive team at the ready. Doesn't help that Washington is slowly improving on the defensive end themselves.
SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5) over Miami- After the letdown of last week and the potential of the Seahawks stealing the division right out from under them, expect Ryan Tannehill to feel the pain of the 49ers defense. If they score 10 points, I'd be surprised.
New Orleans (+4.5) over GIANTS- Last chance for the Saints, while the Giants will probably delude themselves into thinking that they can still salvage things if they lose today. Unless Drew Brees continues his run of INT's from the last two weeks, they should torch a weak Giants secondary.
SEATTLE (-9.5) over Arizona- This spread can't be high enough. John Skelton is back in as starter for the Cards. The good news; it avoids the laughter of Ryan Lindley starting in Seattle. The bad news; the comedy of Skelton is just as funny.
Detroit (+6.5) over GREEN BAY- No, I don't think the Lions are winning. I just think the Packers will hand them another cruel loss instead of blowing them out. A few plays here and there are the difference between a really good year for the Lions and this awful 4-8 season. As a matter of fact, they're the anti-Falcons.
Houston (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND- Biggest game of the weekend and of the AFC season. Houston basically clinches home-field with the win (Denver's win prevents an official clinching). Something is different about this Texans team. They come to play in tough situations that previously they'd fold. Going to Foxboro is as tough as it comes in this league and rare I go against Belichick and Brady at home. But they've been a little too good lately and the Texans are capable of going up there and winning, if not for nothing, to avoid going back there in January.
Last week: 9-6-1
This week: 1-0
Season: 101-86-5
Denver (-10) over OAKLAND- Happened Thursday night, but because I was at work and getting teased by the NHL, I didn't write a picks post. Tweeted this about the game. Nice to finally get a Thursday game spot on.
BUFFALO (-3) over St. Louis- After the great win against the 49ers, I see a letdown for the Rams, just as they did against the Jets after the tie with San Francisco. Bills fans only have to look back on the losses to Tennessee and the 2nd Pats game as to why they are barely still alive instead of in the heart of the playoff race.
Atlanta (-3) over CAROLINA- Why would the Falcons stop winning close games now? I also happen to think that Atlanta will win by a couple of scores just to screw with everyone who's been annoyed by their ability to barely be 11-1.
CINCINNATI (-3) over Dallas- Another awful tragedy in the NFL, this time with the stupidity of drinking and driving. No excuse for that to happen.
Kansas City (+7) over CLEVELAND- I know the Browns are playing better football and the Chiefs are the worst team in the league, but Cleveland should never be favored by seven over anyone.
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Tennessee- Case and point, the Colts are giving less than the Browns at home, even though they look playoff bound. Huge day for Andrew Luck against the porous Titans defense.
Jets (-3) over JACKSONVILLE- This is the perfect spot to save Mark Sanchez's Jets career. The Jags are still with Maurice Jones-Drew and have Cecil Shorts and Rashad Jennings out. Meanwhile, they are 28th and 31st in pass defense and run defense, respectively. And the Sanchize is on the road! If he can't play well here, he never will. Note: Tim Tebow is active and Greg McElroy isn't. Complete zoo with the Jets.
MINNESOTA (+3) over Chicago- Everyone's looking ahead to Packers-Bears for the NFC North title next week, but a trip to the dome puts the Vikings back in the race. Big day for Adrian Peterson and rough day for Jay Cutler is ahead.
PITTSBURGH (-8) over San Diego- 10am PST start for the Chargers, plus it's the Norv Turner Death March, plus Ben Roethlisberger is back. And the Steelers defense is getting healthier, as while LaMarr Woodley and Ike Taylor are out, Troy Polamalu has returned and James Harrison is starting to play like his normal self.
TAMPA BAY (-7) over Philadelphia- Unless the Eagles return another punt for a TD to get a late cover, I'm pretty sure the Bucs will have their way with them. Doug Martin must be licking his chops to take on this defense.
WASHINGTON (-2) over Baltimore- No Terrell Suggs for the Ravens and it's too difficult to stop the Redskins and Robert Griffin III without your full defensive team at the ready. Doesn't help that Washington is slowly improving on the defensive end themselves.
SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5) over Miami- After the letdown of last week and the potential of the Seahawks stealing the division right out from under them, expect Ryan Tannehill to feel the pain of the 49ers defense. If they score 10 points, I'd be surprised.
New Orleans (+4.5) over GIANTS- Last chance for the Saints, while the Giants will probably delude themselves into thinking that they can still salvage things if they lose today. Unless Drew Brees continues his run of INT's from the last two weeks, they should torch a weak Giants secondary.
SEATTLE (-9.5) over Arizona- This spread can't be high enough. John Skelton is back in as starter for the Cards. The good news; it avoids the laughter of Ryan Lindley starting in Seattle. The bad news; the comedy of Skelton is just as funny.
Detroit (+6.5) over GREEN BAY- No, I don't think the Lions are winning. I just think the Packers will hand them another cruel loss instead of blowing them out. A few plays here and there are the difference between a really good year for the Lions and this awful 4-8 season. As a matter of fact, they're the anti-Falcons.
Houston (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND- Biggest game of the weekend and of the AFC season. Houston basically clinches home-field with the win (Denver's win prevents an official clinching). Something is different about this Texans team. They come to play in tough situations that previously they'd fold. Going to Foxboro is as tough as it comes in this league and rare I go against Belichick and Brady at home. But they've been a little too good lately and the Texans are capable of going up there and winning, if not for nothing, to avoid going back there in January.
Last week: 9-6-1
This week: 1-0
Season: 101-86-5
Monday, December 3, 2012
NFC Playoff Picture
We took a peek at the AFC playoff picture yesterday and now that the week is finished, the NFC playoff picture is clear. Unlike the AFC, where their only down to 7 teams with realistic playoff chances, the NFC has 12 teams who can probably say they their season isn't over (Sorry, Panthers, Eagles, Lions and Cardinals). Let's get a look:
Division Leaders
Atlanta (11-1)- Clinched the NFC South. Last 4 games: @Car, NYG, @Det, TB.
I don't know how the Falcons are 11-1, but here they are and about to clinch home-field advantage for the 2nd time in 3 years. The games with the Panthers and Lions will likely put the Falcons over the top in terms of having the road to the Super Bowl go through the Georgia Dome, but if they fail to beat the Giants, teams will still be skeptical of this team.
San Francisco (8-3-1)- Last 4 games: Mia, @NE, @Sea, Ari
If the Niners don't finish the year with a first round bye, they can thank the Rams. The tie and the near second tie and loss puts them in a tough spot in terms of the division. Having games at the Pats and Seahawks don't make the schedule easy. Can't allow stumbles against the Dolphins and Cards.
Green Bay (8-4)- Last 4 games: Det, @Chi, Ten, @Min
Their win over the Vikings, plus the Bears OT loss put the Packers atop the NFC North for the first time this year. Not bad for a team who a week ago was in huge trouble. Their remaining schedule isnt difficult, but that game at Soldier Field looms large. The winner of the division will be decided in that one. I think the other bye comes from the North winner.
N.Y. Giants (7-5)- Last 4 games: NO, @Atl, @Balt, Phil
Boy, the Giants had a great chance to open up a two game lead in the NFC East and effectively eliminate the Redskins. Instead, they lose a frustrating game and now once again are going to try to do things the hard way. I can't tell you what they'll do in the next 3 games because I don't know which team will show up. I really hope they don't need to beat the Eagles to make the playoffs. This loss ends any chance at a bye, I believe.
Wild Cards
Chicago (8-4)- Last 4 games: @Min, GB, @Ari, @Det
The worst part of the loss to the Seahawks is they'll also lose in any tiebreaker to them, which should never happen when you play Seattle away from Seattle. As mentioned earlier, Green Bay-Chicago should decide the division. What wasn't mentioned is what happens to the loser. Barring an injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears do have an easy enough schedule that should allow them to still make the playoffs, though I wouldn't overlook the Vikings on the road.
Seattle (7-5)- Last 4 games: Ari, @Buf, SF, Stl
Huge Sunday for the Seahawks, as they get a great win on the road and see the 49ers lose. They get 3 of their last 4 games, where they play great and the 4th game is a "road" game in Toronto against the Bills. San Francisco better not count on the winning the West without getting a big win.
Contenders
Washington (6-6)- Last 4 games: Balt, @Clev, @Phil, Dal
Can the Washington Redskins win their last 7 games? They won their last three and Cleveland and Philly are easily winnable. Baltimore's the tough test (on a short week, no less). I don't see a wild card being the destiny for the Redskins, but if the Giants keep fooling around, they can fool their way out of the playoffs and in could come the Redskins.
Dallas (6-6)- Last 4 games: @Cin, Pit, NO, @Wash
The Cowboys stay in the conversation with their win over the Eagles. They have quite a tough schedule (which would be tougher if Ben Roethlisberger is back) so the chances they make the playoffs are slim. I think if they can be 8-7 before the Redskins game, they'll still have a shot.
Minnesota (6-6)- Last 4 games: Chi, @Stl, @Hou, GB
What the Vikings have going for them is both the Bears and Packers go to the Metrodome. Also, they get the Rams left as well, another winnable game. The biggest question for them is can their game with Houston take place when the Texans have clinched everything. If so, there's a small chance the Vikings could run the table, though I don't think it's enough to make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay (6-6)- Last 4 games: Phil, @NO, Stl, @Atl
Unfortunately for the Bucs, their skill of losing close games has returned and their two game losing streak has put them in trouble for the playoffs. The schedule isn't that hard, but we have another case of hoping for teams above to lose games. Fact is, if you aren't in the NFC East, the teams ahead have easy schedules to close out.
Mathematically alive, but basically out
St. Louis (5-6-1)- Last 4 games: @Buf, Min, @TB, @Sea
That tie hurts because 10 wins will get you in the playoffs this year (though the NFC East winner could end with 9). They need to win all four left and must hope that after 49ers-Seahawks, both teams have 9 wins.
New Orleans (5-7)- Last 4 games: @NYG, TB, @Dal, Car
They rallied into the playoff race, but two losses in a row put them on the outside looking in. They also need to win out, and hope that 9 wins gets a playoff spot. They can only look back to their losses to the Packers and Chiefs if they end up falling short, which is likely.
Division Leaders
Atlanta (11-1)- Clinched the NFC South. Last 4 games: @Car, NYG, @Det, TB.
I don't know how the Falcons are 11-1, but here they are and about to clinch home-field advantage for the 2nd time in 3 years. The games with the Panthers and Lions will likely put the Falcons over the top in terms of having the road to the Super Bowl go through the Georgia Dome, but if they fail to beat the Giants, teams will still be skeptical of this team.
San Francisco (8-3-1)- Last 4 games: Mia, @NE, @Sea, Ari
If the Niners don't finish the year with a first round bye, they can thank the Rams. The tie and the near second tie and loss puts them in a tough spot in terms of the division. Having games at the Pats and Seahawks don't make the schedule easy. Can't allow stumbles against the Dolphins and Cards.
Green Bay (8-4)- Last 4 games: Det, @Chi, Ten, @Min
Their win over the Vikings, plus the Bears OT loss put the Packers atop the NFC North for the first time this year. Not bad for a team who a week ago was in huge trouble. Their remaining schedule isnt difficult, but that game at Soldier Field looms large. The winner of the division will be decided in that one. I think the other bye comes from the North winner.
N.Y. Giants (7-5)- Last 4 games: NO, @Atl, @Balt, Phil
Boy, the Giants had a great chance to open up a two game lead in the NFC East and effectively eliminate the Redskins. Instead, they lose a frustrating game and now once again are going to try to do things the hard way. I can't tell you what they'll do in the next 3 games because I don't know which team will show up. I really hope they don't need to beat the Eagles to make the playoffs. This loss ends any chance at a bye, I believe.
Wild Cards
Chicago (8-4)- Last 4 games: @Min, GB, @Ari, @Det
The worst part of the loss to the Seahawks is they'll also lose in any tiebreaker to them, which should never happen when you play Seattle away from Seattle. As mentioned earlier, Green Bay-Chicago should decide the division. What wasn't mentioned is what happens to the loser. Barring an injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears do have an easy enough schedule that should allow them to still make the playoffs, though I wouldn't overlook the Vikings on the road.
Seattle (7-5)- Last 4 games: Ari, @Buf, SF, Stl
Huge Sunday for the Seahawks, as they get a great win on the road and see the 49ers lose. They get 3 of their last 4 games, where they play great and the 4th game is a "road" game in Toronto against the Bills. San Francisco better not count on the winning the West without getting a big win.
Contenders
Washington (6-6)- Last 4 games: Balt, @Clev, @Phil, Dal
Can the Washington Redskins win their last 7 games? They won their last three and Cleveland and Philly are easily winnable. Baltimore's the tough test (on a short week, no less). I don't see a wild card being the destiny for the Redskins, but if the Giants keep fooling around, they can fool their way out of the playoffs and in could come the Redskins.
Dallas (6-6)- Last 4 games: @Cin, Pit, NO, @Wash
The Cowboys stay in the conversation with their win over the Eagles. They have quite a tough schedule (which would be tougher if Ben Roethlisberger is back) so the chances they make the playoffs are slim. I think if they can be 8-7 before the Redskins game, they'll still have a shot.
Minnesota (6-6)- Last 4 games: Chi, @Stl, @Hou, GB
What the Vikings have going for them is both the Bears and Packers go to the Metrodome. Also, they get the Rams left as well, another winnable game. The biggest question for them is can their game with Houston take place when the Texans have clinched everything. If so, there's a small chance the Vikings could run the table, though I don't think it's enough to make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay (6-6)- Last 4 games: Phil, @NO, Stl, @Atl
Unfortunately for the Bucs, their skill of losing close games has returned and their two game losing streak has put them in trouble for the playoffs. The schedule isn't that hard, but we have another case of hoping for teams above to lose games. Fact is, if you aren't in the NFC East, the teams ahead have easy schedules to close out.
Mathematically alive, but basically out
St. Louis (5-6-1)- Last 4 games: @Buf, Min, @TB, @Sea
That tie hurts because 10 wins will get you in the playoffs this year (though the NFC East winner could end with 9). They need to win all four left and must hope that after 49ers-Seahawks, both teams have 9 wins.
New Orleans (5-7)- Last 4 games: @NYG, TB, @Dal, Car
They rallied into the playoff race, but two losses in a row put them on the outside looking in. They also need to win out, and hope that 9 wins gets a playoff spot. They can only look back to their losses to the Packers and Chiefs if they end up falling short, which is likely.
AFC Playoff Picture
A running series that should have started a couple weeks ago, it's time to look at the playoff picture as the NFL begins to close it's season. Since we still have the Giants and Redskins playing tonight, the AFC is the perfect place to start. Going into yesterday, all four AFC Division leaders had a chance to clinch playoff berths. Here's a look at the AFC playoff picture after yesterday's games (Chiefs, Jags and Raiders are eliminated; Browns, Titans and Chargers may as well be).
Division Leaders
Houston (11-1)- Clinched a playoff berth. Last 4 games: @NE, Indy, Minn, @Indy.
Stand as the top team in the AFC right now and will play New England next Monday with a chance to lock up home-field throughout the playoffs. They would need losses by Denver and Baltimore to officially clinch, but they would own head-to-head tiebreakers over all three teams in case the Ravens or Broncos win. Not an easy schedule to close it out, so a loss would open the door for a second trip to New England potentially in January.
New England (9-3)- Clinched AFC East. Last 4 games: Hou, SF, @Jac, Mia.
Their win over the Dolphins locked up the division, the Pats 10th AFC East title in the last 12 seasons. They currently win a tiebreaker over both Denver and Baltimore by having a better conference record than both (since Denver and Baltimore didn't play yet, head-to-head don't count). If they can beat the Texans at home, then they are very alive for the top seed. If they lose, they would still be in the hunt for the other 1st round bye, especially with the Ravens and Broncos playing each other in Week 15.
Baltimore (9-3)- Last 4 games: @Wash, Den, NYG, @Cin
The Ravens could have clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Steelers. By failing to do so, their playoff position became a little more precarious. That schedule they have left is pretty brutal and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 9-7. They hold the 3 spot right now due to playing two more conference games than Denver.
Denver (9-3)- Clinched AFC West. Last 4 games: @Oak, @Balt, Clev, KC
It's clear that the Broncos have the easiest schedule to close the 2012 season. As long as they beat the Ravens, the Broncos are probably the favorite to land the two seed in the AFC (perhaps the top seed if the Texans struggle). Would lose head-to-head tiebreakers with Houston and New England, but a win over Baltimore would counter that.
Wild Cards
Indianapolis (8-4)- Last 4 games: Ten, @Hou, @KC, Hou
The Colts tremendous comeback against the Lions maintain their place in the AFC playoff picture as the 1st Wild Card and 5th seed. While the Houston games aren't easy, they have winnable games with Tennessee and Kansas City. And who knows; if the Texans lose to the Pats next Monday and the Colts win, they are two games behind for the division with 3 to play, controlling their destiny for the AFC South.
Pittsburgh (7-5)- Last 4 games: SD, @Dal, Cin, Clev
They are in the 6th spot because of their Sunday night win against the Bengals back in October. Somehow, the Steelers have survived this stretch without Ben Roethlisberger by getting that comeback win over the Ravens. Keeps them both in the playoffs if the season ended today and still gives the Steelers an outside shot at the division.
Contender
Cincinnati (7-5)- Last 4 games: Dal, @Phil, @Pitt, Balt
Cincinnati had their own comeback win by beating the sorry Chargers while being down 13-10 in the 4th quarter. This four-game winning streak came out of nowhere, but it's brought the Bengals in the heart of the AFC playoff race. Looking back at the Bengals, they've only once made the playoffs in back-to-back years (1981 and 1982, a strike year). These two games with the Cowboys and Eagles are must-wins, since it would be harder to sweep the Steelers and Ravens.
Mathematically alive, but pretty much done
NY Jets (5-7)- Last 4 games: @Jac, @Ten, SD, @Buf
Thanks to Greg McElroy, the Jets remains with faint playoff hopes. They needed two of Indy, Pitt and Cincy to lose yesterday, though. All won and despite an easy finishing schedule, the Jets have little chance of cracking through. 9-7 is a must for them.
Buffalo (5-7)- Last 4 games: Stl, Sea, @Mia, NYJ
The Bills also kept slight playoff hopes alive by knocking off the Jaguars at home. They also have a schedule that can get them to 9-7 since they have the Seahawks at home. Knowing the Bills, they probably will lose to the Rams to eliminate themselves.
Miami (5-7)- Last 4 games: @SF, Jac, Buf, @NE
What could have been for the Dolphins. After their dominant win over the Jets, Miami was 4-3 and schedule was seemingly easy. Then they lost 3 straight, two to the Titans and Bills and now they're also in need of winning out. Good luck with beating the Niners and Pats on the road to do that.
Division Leaders
Houston (11-1)- Clinched a playoff berth. Last 4 games: @NE, Indy, Minn, @Indy.
Stand as the top team in the AFC right now and will play New England next Monday with a chance to lock up home-field throughout the playoffs. They would need losses by Denver and Baltimore to officially clinch, but they would own head-to-head tiebreakers over all three teams in case the Ravens or Broncos win. Not an easy schedule to close it out, so a loss would open the door for a second trip to New England potentially in January.
New England (9-3)- Clinched AFC East. Last 4 games: Hou, SF, @Jac, Mia.
Their win over the Dolphins locked up the division, the Pats 10th AFC East title in the last 12 seasons. They currently win a tiebreaker over both Denver and Baltimore by having a better conference record than both (since Denver and Baltimore didn't play yet, head-to-head don't count). If they can beat the Texans at home, then they are very alive for the top seed. If they lose, they would still be in the hunt for the other 1st round bye, especially with the Ravens and Broncos playing each other in Week 15.
Baltimore (9-3)- Last 4 games: @Wash, Den, NYG, @Cin
The Ravens could have clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Steelers. By failing to do so, their playoff position became a little more precarious. That schedule they have left is pretty brutal and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 9-7. They hold the 3 spot right now due to playing two more conference games than Denver.
Denver (9-3)- Clinched AFC West. Last 4 games: @Oak, @Balt, Clev, KC
It's clear that the Broncos have the easiest schedule to close the 2012 season. As long as they beat the Ravens, the Broncos are probably the favorite to land the two seed in the AFC (perhaps the top seed if the Texans struggle). Would lose head-to-head tiebreakers with Houston and New England, but a win over Baltimore would counter that.
Wild Cards
Indianapolis (8-4)- Last 4 games: Ten, @Hou, @KC, Hou
The Colts tremendous comeback against the Lions maintain their place in the AFC playoff picture as the 1st Wild Card and 5th seed. While the Houston games aren't easy, they have winnable games with Tennessee and Kansas City. And who knows; if the Texans lose to the Pats next Monday and the Colts win, they are two games behind for the division with 3 to play, controlling their destiny for the AFC South.
Pittsburgh (7-5)- Last 4 games: SD, @Dal, Cin, Clev
They are in the 6th spot because of their Sunday night win against the Bengals back in October. Somehow, the Steelers have survived this stretch without Ben Roethlisberger by getting that comeback win over the Ravens. Keeps them both in the playoffs if the season ended today and still gives the Steelers an outside shot at the division.
Contender
Cincinnati (7-5)- Last 4 games: Dal, @Phil, @Pitt, Balt
Cincinnati had their own comeback win by beating the sorry Chargers while being down 13-10 in the 4th quarter. This four-game winning streak came out of nowhere, but it's brought the Bengals in the heart of the AFC playoff race. Looking back at the Bengals, they've only once made the playoffs in back-to-back years (1981 and 1982, a strike year). These two games with the Cowboys and Eagles are must-wins, since it would be harder to sweep the Steelers and Ravens.
Mathematically alive, but pretty much done
NY Jets (5-7)- Last 4 games: @Jac, @Ten, SD, @Buf
Thanks to Greg McElroy, the Jets remains with faint playoff hopes. They needed two of Indy, Pitt and Cincy to lose yesterday, though. All won and despite an easy finishing schedule, the Jets have little chance of cracking through. 9-7 is a must for them.
Buffalo (5-7)- Last 4 games: Stl, Sea, @Mia, NYJ
The Bills also kept slight playoff hopes alive by knocking off the Jaguars at home. They also have a schedule that can get them to 9-7 since they have the Seahawks at home. Knowing the Bills, they probably will lose to the Rams to eliminate themselves.
Miami (5-7)- Last 4 games: @SF, Jac, Buf, @NE
What could have been for the Dolphins. After their dominant win over the Jets, Miami was 4-3 and schedule was seemingly easy. Then they lost 3 straight, two to the Titans and Bills and now they're also in need of winning out. Good luck with beating the Niners and Pats on the road to do that.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Week 13 Picks
It's been awhile since I worked on a Sunday, so I'm going to have to make my NFL picks quickly. Here they are:
Jacksonville (+6) over BUFFALO
CHICAGO (-3) over Seattle
Indianapolis (+6.5) over DETROIT
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Minnesota
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over Carolina- Because of yesterday's tragedy involving the team, I'm not picking this game like normal. I'm rooting for the Chiefs to win today.
MIAMI (+7) over New England
JETS (-5.5) over Arizona
ST. LOUIS (+7.5) over San Francisco
Houston (-6.5) over TENNESSEE
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over DENVER
Pittsburgh (+7.5) over BALTIMORE
OAKLAND (+2) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (-1) over SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia (+10.5) over DALLAS
WASHINGTON (+3) over Giants
Last week: 10-6
This week: 0-1
Season: 91-81-4
Jacksonville (+6) over BUFFALO
CHICAGO (-3) over Seattle
Indianapolis (+6.5) over DETROIT
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Minnesota
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over Carolina- Because of yesterday's tragedy involving the team, I'm not picking this game like normal. I'm rooting for the Chiefs to win today.
MIAMI (+7) over New England
JETS (-5.5) over Arizona
ST. LOUIS (+7.5) over San Francisco
Houston (-6.5) over TENNESSEE
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over DENVER
Pittsburgh (+7.5) over BALTIMORE
OAKLAND (+2) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (-1) over SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia (+10.5) over DALLAS
WASHINGTON (+3) over Giants
Last week: 10-6
This week: 0-1
Season: 91-81-4
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Thursday Night Pick
You should take my Thursday pick with a grain of salt. I just looked back and noticed I have not hit on any of my Thursday picks in November, including an 0-for-3 on Thanksgiving. The Falcons defense isn't as gruesome as the Niners defense and even though the Saints are on the road, this is probably the last chance for the Saints to make the playoffs (thanks to the losses by the Vikings and Seahawks). I have the Saints with the upset 37-27.
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Week 12 Picks
This year's Thanksgiving games basically had the good (RGIII's great day in Dallas), the bad (how the Lions gave up their game with the Texans) and the ugly (anything the Jets did that night). Now that we've finished our turkey and what not, there's some more NFL to digest today, including some monster matchups.
Minnesota (+6) over CHICAGO
I know Jay Cutler is playing today, but who knows how he'll play coming off that concussion. Let's just hope that we don't see much Christian Ponder in this one.
CINCINNATI (-8) over Oakland
Raiders playing at 10 AM PST start is never a good thing, plus they still are without Darren McFadden (probably won't play again this year, based on his history). Only worry is that this would precisely be the game that the Bengals would lose.
CLEVELAND (+2) over Pittsburgh
If there's ever a chance for the Browns to beat the Steelers, it's today. Charlie Batch is starting. No Antonio Brown again for Pittsburgh as well.
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over Buffalo
It's tough to go into New England for the first time ever and win as a rookie. It's also tough for the Bills to win back-to-back games in the second half to inspire hope for your fanbase.
JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) over Tennessee
Might the Jaguars not be as bad as their record indicates? Yes, they were blown out by the Colts a couple weeks ago, but with Chad Henne at QB, the Jags are somewhat competent. And shouldn't a somewhat competent team be able to win against the Titans? I say yes.
KANSAS CITY (+10) over Denver
I was probably going to pick the Broncos, but then I read this article this morning. Manning has trouble with Crennel, plus no Willis McGahee equals take the points.
MIAMI (+3) over Seattle
I know the Dolphins have floundered a bit lately and the Seahawks are coming off a bye, yet I don't like them in the longest road trip of the season. Add the 10AM PST start time and the Dolphins win a close one.
TAMPA BAY (+1.5) over Atlanta
Last year, I had a bet on the Bucs winning the NFC. I probably should have done the same this year. At least it's a better chance this time around (on second thought, Greg Schiano-coached teams find ways to lose at the worst moments, so no). Still will win today.
Baltimore (Pick'em) over SAN DIEGO
I'm convinced this is the Norv Turner death march. Too many teams have coaches in death march mode right now, and this will hit San Diego like the Arab Spring.
St. Louis (+1.5) over ARIZONA
If only the Cardinals had a QB (even Kevin Kolb would suffice), they would be a playoff team. Good defense, good special teams, two great players (Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson). Have to take the Rams here.
NEW ORLEANS (+1.5) over San Francisco
Probably the game that will dictate whether or not the Saints can complete this comeback of a season to make the playoffs. Helps that they have the Niners at home in the dome.
Green Bay (+3) over GIANTS
I'm not sure why the Giants seem to have a lot of people on them today. Aaron Rodgers will feast off their defense and the Giants normally play weaker at home. Very pessimistic about this one.
Carolina (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
This is the Death March Bowl. We know both Andy Reid and Ron Rivera are through after this year. Looks like a good night to return to watching wrestling.
This week: 0-3
Season: 81-77-4
Minnesota (+6) over CHICAGO
I know Jay Cutler is playing today, but who knows how he'll play coming off that concussion. Let's just hope that we don't see much Christian Ponder in this one.
CINCINNATI (-8) over Oakland
Raiders playing at 10 AM PST start is never a good thing, plus they still are without Darren McFadden (probably won't play again this year, based on his history). Only worry is that this would precisely be the game that the Bengals would lose.
CLEVELAND (+2) over Pittsburgh
If there's ever a chance for the Browns to beat the Steelers, it's today. Charlie Batch is starting. No Antonio Brown again for Pittsburgh as well.
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over Buffalo
It's tough to go into New England for the first time ever and win as a rookie. It's also tough for the Bills to win back-to-back games in the second half to inspire hope for your fanbase.
JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) over Tennessee
Might the Jaguars not be as bad as their record indicates? Yes, they were blown out by the Colts a couple weeks ago, but with Chad Henne at QB, the Jags are somewhat competent. And shouldn't a somewhat competent team be able to win against the Titans? I say yes.
KANSAS CITY (+10) over Denver
I was probably going to pick the Broncos, but then I read this article this morning. Manning has trouble with Crennel, plus no Willis McGahee equals take the points.
MIAMI (+3) over Seattle
I know the Dolphins have floundered a bit lately and the Seahawks are coming off a bye, yet I don't like them in the longest road trip of the season. Add the 10AM PST start time and the Dolphins win a close one.
TAMPA BAY (+1.5) over Atlanta
Last year, I had a bet on the Bucs winning the NFC. I probably should have done the same this year. At least it's a better chance this time around (on second thought, Greg Schiano-coached teams find ways to lose at the worst moments, so no). Still will win today.
Baltimore (Pick'em) over SAN DIEGO
I'm convinced this is the Norv Turner death march. Too many teams have coaches in death march mode right now, and this will hit San Diego like the Arab Spring.
St. Louis (+1.5) over ARIZONA
If only the Cardinals had a QB (even Kevin Kolb would suffice), they would be a playoff team. Good defense, good special teams, two great players (Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson). Have to take the Rams here.
NEW ORLEANS (+1.5) over San Francisco
Probably the game that will dictate whether or not the Saints can complete this comeback of a season to make the playoffs. Helps that they have the Niners at home in the dome.
Green Bay (+3) over GIANTS
I'm not sure why the Giants seem to have a lot of people on them today. Aaron Rodgers will feast off their defense and the Giants normally play weaker at home. Very pessimistic about this one.
Carolina (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
This is the Death March Bowl. We know both Andy Reid and Ron Rivera are through after this year. Looks like a good night to return to watching wrestling.
This week: 0-3
Season: 81-77-4
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Thanksgiving Day Picks
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!! Here's my picks for today's games.
Houston (-3.5) over DETROIT- Texans overlooked the Jags last Sunday. I'm thinking it's because of the Bears win and this game in Detroit. JJ Watt has an LT-like game today.
DALLAS (-3) over Washington- This is the only spotlight game that Tony Romo never loses. Don't see it happening today against RGIII and company.
JETS (+7) over New England- Losing Gronk, plus a short week will keep the Jets in this one. Must say, this is the Jets last chance to make the playoffs; don't want to be 4-7 needing to win out.
Last week: 7-6-1
Season: 81-74-4
Houston (-3.5) over DETROIT- Texans overlooked the Jags last Sunday. I'm thinking it's because of the Bears win and this game in Detroit. JJ Watt has an LT-like game today.
DALLAS (-3) over Washington- This is the only spotlight game that Tony Romo never loses. Don't see it happening today against RGIII and company.
JETS (+7) over New England- Losing Gronk, plus a short week will keep the Jets in this one. Must say, this is the Jets last chance to make the playoffs; don't want to be 4-7 needing to win out.
Last week: 7-6-1
Season: 81-74-4
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