NFC Playoff Picture

We took a peek at the AFC playoff picture yesterday and now that the week is finished, the NFC playoff picture is clear. Unlike the AFC, where their only down to 7 teams with realistic playoff chances, the NFC has 12 teams who can probably say they their season isn't over (Sorry, Panthers, Eagles, Lions and Cardinals). Let's get a look:

Division Leaders

Atlanta (11-1)- Clinched the NFC South. Last 4 games: @Car, NYG, @Det, TB.

I don't know how the Falcons are 11-1, but here they are and about to clinch home-field advantage for the 2nd time in 3 years. The games with the Panthers and Lions will likely put the Falcons over the top in terms of having the road to the Super Bowl go through the Georgia Dome, but if they fail to beat the Giants, teams will still be skeptical of this team.

San Francisco (8-3-1)- Last 4 games: Mia, @NE, @Sea, Ari

If the Niners don't finish the year with a first round bye, they can thank the Rams. The tie and the near second tie and loss puts them in a tough spot in terms of the division. Having games at the Pats and Seahawks don't make the schedule easy. Can't allow stumbles against the Dolphins and Cards.

Green Bay (8-4)- Last 4 games: Det, @Chi, Ten, @Min

Their win over the Vikings, plus the Bears OT loss put the Packers atop the NFC North for the first time this year. Not bad for a team who a week ago was in huge trouble. Their remaining schedule isnt difficult, but that game at Soldier Field looms large. The winner of the division will be decided in that one. I think the other bye comes from the North winner.

N.Y. Giants (7-5)- Last 4 games: NO, @Atl, @Balt, Phil

Boy, the Giants had a great chance to open up a two game lead in the NFC East and effectively eliminate the Redskins. Instead, they lose a frustrating game and now once again are going to try to do things the hard way. I can't tell you what they'll do in the next 3 games because I don't know which team will show up. I really hope they don't need to beat the Eagles to make the playoffs. This loss ends any chance at a bye, I believe.

Wild Cards

Chicago (8-4)- Last 4 games: @Min, GB, @Ari, @Det

The worst part of the loss to the Seahawks is they'll also lose in any tiebreaker to them, which should never happen when you play Seattle away from Seattle. As mentioned earlier, Green Bay-Chicago should decide the division. What wasn't mentioned is what happens to the loser. Barring an injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears do have an easy enough schedule that should allow them to still make the playoffs, though I wouldn't overlook the Vikings on the road.

Seattle (7-5)- Last 4 games: Ari, @Buf, SF, Stl

Huge Sunday for the Seahawks, as they get a great win on the road and see the 49ers lose. They get 3 of their last 4 games, where they play great and the 4th game is a "road" game in Toronto against the Bills. San Francisco better not count on the winning the West without getting a big win.

Contenders

Washington (6-6)- Last 4 games: Balt, @Clev, @Phil, Dal

Can the Washington Redskins win their last 7 games? They won their last three and Cleveland and Philly are easily winnable. Baltimore's the tough test (on a short week, no less). I don't see a wild card being the destiny for the Redskins, but if the Giants keep fooling around, they can fool their way out of the playoffs and in could come the Redskins.

Dallas (6-6)- Last 4 games: @Cin, Pit, NO, @Wash

The Cowboys stay in the conversation with their win over the Eagles. They have quite a tough schedule (which would be tougher if Ben Roethlisberger is back) so the chances they make the playoffs are slim. I think if they can be 8-7 before the Redskins game, they'll still have a shot.

Minnesota (6-6)- Last 4 games: Chi, @Stl, @Hou, GB

What the Vikings have going for them is both the Bears and Packers go to the Metrodome. Also, they get the Rams left as well, another winnable game. The biggest question for them is can their game with Houston take place when the Texans have clinched everything. If so, there's a small chance the Vikings could run the table, though I don't think it's enough to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay (6-6)- Last 4 games: Phil, @NO, Stl, @Atl

Unfortunately for the Bucs, their skill of losing close games has returned and their two game losing streak has put them in trouble for the playoffs. The schedule isn't that hard, but we have another case of hoping for teams above to lose games. Fact is, if you aren't in the NFC East, the teams ahead have easy schedules to close out.

Mathematically alive, but basically out

St. Louis (5-6-1)- Last 4 games: @Buf, Min, @TB, @Sea

That tie hurts because 10 wins will get you in the playoffs this year (though the NFC East winner could end with 9). They need to win all four left and must hope that after 49ers-Seahawks, both teams have 9 wins.

New Orleans (5-7)- Last 4 games: @NYG, TB, @Dal, Car

They rallied into the playoff race, but two losses in a row put them on the outside looking in. They also need to win out, and hope that 9 wins gets a playoff spot. They can only look back to their losses to the Packers and Chiefs if they end up falling short, which is likely.

Sunday Divisional Round Preview

Time for the Sunday games, after the predictable Pats blowout of Tebow and the Broncos and the epic finish in San Francisco. That game was amazing yesterday; one which I wanted to last forever. The best football games are the ones which teams trade scores at some point. And for all the Niners fans, now you know that Alex Smith is capable to win a big game. Can he win the Super Bowl? Well, let's see how the playoffs play out if he needs to go to Lambeau and/or have to face the Patriots or the Ravens/Texans. Perfect segue to my picks today.

Houston at Baltimore

Of all the weekend's games, this is the one which lacks juice. It's easy to see once you realize the starting QB's are T.J. Yates and Joe Flacco. Of all the other games, the only QB that gives you a meh feeling is Alex Smith, but it was great offense vs great defense and Smith rose to the occasion when it mattered most. Shame is, this game is the one with the two best running backs left with Arian Foster and Ray Rice; yet the defenses here are so good, the quarterbacks will decide this one. Too bad for Houston, they have the rookie QB on the road unlike last week when Andy Dalton was the rookie on the road. Plus, they lost to the Ravens pretty handily back in October when Matt Schaub was healthy. The only argument I can see for the Texans is that their defense shuts down Baltimore, Flacco plays horrible and Andre Johnson (who didn't play the earlier game) makes a couple plays. I just don't see it. Ravens win 20-3.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay

Walking out of MetLife Stadium after last week's dominating win over the Falcons, the fans seemed to believe that this is 2007 all over again; quick start, bad losses to bad teams, admirable performance losing at home to unbeaten power 38-35, pass rush starts to dominate line as Eli Manning throws the Giants to wins. Now, the Giants have their chance to win the rematch against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Difference to this game than the Super Bowl; Green Bay's no longer unbeaten and they are home for the game. Giants, in my eyes though, are better considering the WR's are better, Jason Pierre-Paul more than makes up for Michael Strahan and we go into this knowing Eli Manning can win big games, not just hoping he would. Avoiding turnovers are extremely necessary in order to win this game, since you can't Rodgers a short field while losing chances to score (which the Giants need to do). Someone's going to screw up this weekend among the heavily favored home teams. It wasn't the Pats, I don't think it's the Ravens, so it must be the Packers. Giants with the upset 34-30.

Saturday Divisional Round Preview

Last week, there was no preview of the Saturday Wild Card games (and a rushed version for Sunday). This week is different; the match ups are better and more interesting then most Divisional Rounds (most due to Tim Tebow). However in terms of best games, clearly the NFC has the better of the two conferences and just shows what's to me and Ashley Fox is true; the NFC is once again the better conference. And we'll begin the Divisional Round with the biggest toss-up of the four.

New Orleans at San Francisco

If this game was in New Orleans, the Saints win easy, probably like 35-16. The dome, the turf and the crowd would scare a team like the Niners (particularly Alex Smith) and their inability to score touchdowns would hurt greatly there. Lucky for San Francisco, they are at Candlestick, on that grass than can be longer and perhaps a bit muddy as most big Niners games were. Bill Barnwell showed us the stat that the Saints score about 2 touchdowns less a game on the road than at home. I was leaning Saints all week long, but then I started thinking, how many times does the road favorite win? It didn't happen last week in Denver. Saints lost in Seattle last year in the same fashion, though the Packers did win in Chicago for the NFC Title and the Ravens won in Kansas City as a favorite last year as well. That's a small sample size, so who do I go with. It's wrong to call the 2 seed beating a 3 seed an upset, but the Niners will win 19-17 and we finally give Jim Harbaugh and his defense some legitimate praise for shutting down a dominant offense.

Denver at New England

Will it be Tebow Time again? We know that Tebow will have to score like he did in Pittsburgh if there's any chance for his Broncos. Denver lucked out that Pittsburgh was a MASH unit by the end and Ben Roethlisberger couldn't move around the pocket creating plays like normal. Tom Brady won't need that. I don't see who defends the Pats TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. And while the Pats defense isn't good, they can ballhawk. Did you know that the Patriots led the AFC in takeaways, third in the league? So while they might lose coverage of players, they can make up for it by causing a turnover. I fully believe the Pats continue to play defense to stop the run, without selling out the deep ball like the Steelers did. New England wins in a walk, 45-17.

Come back tomorrow for the Sunday picks.

Sunday Wild Card Preview

Work this week didn't allow me to write up a Saturday preview (except for my Twitter thoughts), but here are my thoughts on the Saturday in football.

-If the Texans can play in Baltimore the way they played yesterday, they can beat the Ravens. Meaning they run well with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and if Andre Johnson can make a difference like he did on the TD pass. I know their defense will show up, but I expect a tougher time for young T.J. Yates on the road.

-I'd have a whole lot more confidence in the Bengals future if Mike Brown wasn't the man to decide on how to improve it. It's a lot to ask Andy Dalton to win his first road playoff game.

-Detroit is also on the right path, just need a running game and a better secondary. Now, any secondary can look bad against the Saints in New Orleans, but a running game would have kept the ball in the Lions' hands for more of the game.

-As for the Saints, what else is there to say about their offense. I really can't wait until they play San Francisco; great offense against great defense. Also curious how the Niners play in their first playoff game since Steve Mariucci's last game as coach.

Now onto today's games, one of which I will be attending. That's right, I'll be at MetLife Stadium for Giants-Falcons. Though I can be biased when the Giants are involved, I do think they win today 27-20 because the outdoors will hurt Atlanta, plus the Giants have their pass rush back, and not just Jason Pierre-Paul.

As for the late game, my first thought was no way can the Broncos beat the Steelers after the game they played against Kansas City and after losing their last 3 games. Over the past week, I've seen some people go the other way, with the worry being the Steelers who are hurt and those who are banged up. Also, too much is being made about the fact that 8-8 or worse teams playing home playoff games have done well recently. I expect some turnovers by Tebow and the Broncos and a couple play made by Ben Roethlisberger will be the difference. Steelers will win 20-3.

Wild Card Sunday

Before getting into Sunday's picks, here's my recap of Saturday's terrible day for me which both my picks lost. The Seahawks are living a charmed life right now, but let's be fair, Stanford would have beat the Saints defense yesterday. They were awful after taking the 10-0 lead. Drew Brees did all he could, but he couldn't play defense and they couldn't stop Seattle when they needed to. It was pretty much punctuated by Marshawn Lynch's epic run which is one of those runs you see on NFL Films when Jim Brown or Earl Campbell make one of their all-time runs. It was physical and overpowering and might be the best playoff run in history. As far as biggest upset, I'll hold off and still go with Jacksonville trotting into Denver and beating Elway and Co. 30-27 in the 1996 Playoffs, in terms of a non-Super Bowl upset (thus Jets, Pats and Giants don't count). We can get into writing off the Seahawks next week and the discussion on whether 7-9 teams should host playoff games can be tabled for the future, but for now, Seattle's on top of the world.

The Seahawks would need to share a spot with Rex Ryan, who finally gets his win over Peyton Manning and his Colts. Of course, he was given this win on a timeout call by Jim Caldwell that was Chris Webber-level bad. The Jets were going to take their chances on a 50 yard field goal. I don't have to remind Jets fans on how Herm Edwards did the exact same thing against the Steelers in the 2004 Playoffs and Doug Brien proceeded to miss the winning field goal. Caldwell gave the Jets a chance to reconsider and Mark Sanchez found Braylon Edwards at the 15, setting up a 32 yard winner for Nick Folk. Sanchez deserves credit for making that throw, because he was awful yesterday. He overthrew receiver after receiver and cost the Jets points at halftime with his interception. The Jets, smartly, ran much of the second half and dominated the line of scrimmage. As for the Colts, Peyton was able to move the ball but couldn't get into the end zone except the long TD to Pierre Garcon. The Jets defense deserves credit for daring Manning to run the ball and Manning obliged for the most part. Still, Manning in a tough game put the Colts in a position to win and maybe they do if the Colts can stop Cromartie's return or if Caldwell lets the Jets take the field goal from 50 yards.

Onto the picks with the first game in Kansas City with the Chiefs hosting the Ravens. I thought the Chiefs had a better than punchers chance to win and the Seahawks winning makes a Chiefs win more possible. The Ravens are capable of beating anyone in the AFC, might be the best team on paper in the AFC. The problem is the Ravens all year when playing a big game seem to come small in a close game.

Ravens will win if: They do exactly what they did to the Dolphins in this playoff game two years ago, and to a lesser extent last year to New England, which is control tempo on the road against an inferior team (I go lesser with the Pats because I didn't find them inferior). The Chiefs running game would have to be stopped and Matt Cassel needs to be blitzed. Flacco just needs to control the offense, not turn the ball over and not panic late.

Chiefs will win if: They can run with Jamaal Charles and the crowd can disrupt the Ravens. Cassel would need to be upright and make a couple of plays. The Chiefs defense would also need to control the line of scrimmage and not allow big days from Flacco or Ray Rice.

My pick: I picked the Chiefs to make the playoffs back in start of the year. I would love to pick them today and I probably would if the game started at 4:30. The Ravens tend to play great on the 1pm Wild Card game. Plus, the only time the Ravens lost in the Wild Card round, the memorable Anthony Wright was the starting QB. So the Ravens (-3.5) will win today 20-10.

Now to the main event of the weekend, the Packers and the Eagles. The Packers soared in the last two games, while the Eagles slumped. Both teams have great QB play, with Aaron Rodgers appearing conventional but can break a run when necessary and Michael Vick ready to run, but more willing to throw in the pocket than in the past. Both teams have great receivers, Eagles are more likely to go deep, Packers can do both intermediate and deep very well. The Packers defense is better (the best one left in the NFC), while the Eagles run the ball better. Something's gotta give.

Packers will win if: They can blitz Vick for the full game and make him uncomfortable. This is a huge game for Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and the Packers defense. They have to stop LeSean McCoy and not let Vick find DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin deep. Offensively, Rodgers needs to thrive against an average Eagles defense, but at the very least to avoid killer interceptions.

Eagles will win if: Vick can run wild and Jackson makes two or three big plays. Also, if Rodgers can turn the ball over (likely meaning a big day for Asante Samuel) and can't throw in the wind today, the Eagles should win. McCoy running for over 100 yards would help as well.

My pick: Forget about the collapse, the Giants showed everyone how to contain Michael Vick, with a strong pass rush and avoid leaving contain. The Bears, Cowboys and Vikings all did the same. The Packers have the athletes to do the same, forget the first matchup as the Packers didn't gameplan Vick. Rodgers will make enough plays and I find a lower scoring game than most people think. Packers win 27-20.

Wild Card Saturday

I didn't plan to make my picks post so late, but the Seton Hall game delayed it and the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords kept me from writing over the last hour. Before I start, allow me to offer condolences to those who were injured or killed and their families. I don't usually have politics on this blog, but in this instance, I will make an exception. Don't comment about it unless you're echoing my sentiment or it will be removed (of course, any comments about the games will be encouraged).

Anyway, let's move on to football where the first game today is the Saints and the Seahawks which the 7-9 team is hosting the game (this needs to change). The Saints were dealt a blow when both Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were lost for the playoffs, leaving both Julius Jones and Reggie Bush as their only source of running. Which puts more on the shoulders of Drew Brees and the passing game. Seattle has a puncher's chance with Matt Hasselbeck, but he's more of a sitting duck for Gregg Williams pressure defense. I would have had no confidence if Charlie Whitehurst was under center.

Saints win if: They show up. In reality, the Saints need to take the early lead and get the crowd out of it. Best way to do that is to exploit the pourous Seahawks secondary and if Julius Jones has revenge on his mind against the Seahawks, then let him run.

Seahawks win if: They take the early lead and let the 12th man disrupt the Saints offense. Force Drew Brees to throw interceptions (and he threw 22 INT's this year) and shutdown the depleted Saints running game. Also, mistake-free football by the Seahawks offense and a couple plays by Leon Washington on special teams which could lead to points.

My pick: I see more and more people are talking themselves into either taking the 10.5 or picking the Seahawks outright and I'm thinking, why fool around. If you take the Saints and they lose, then you're just wrong and if you're like me, you can live with it. If you take the Seahawks and they get destroyed, then you just wasted your time. I'd rather be wrong than foolish. And I spent way too much time explaining, so Saints win 34-10.


The nightcap pits an AFC Championship Game rematch between the Jets and the Colts. Spread is the Colts favored by 2.5 and this is a split on who thinks who's going to win. The Jets are better this year and the Colts are worse, especially with the injuries to Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. The key of course is that Peyton Manning isn't hurt and carried the Colts to this playoff game. The Jets for the most part slumped to the end and while I said the Jets are better, it's because they can score more than last year. Their defense isn't as good and still can't pass rush without a blitz. That is dangerous when playing Manning, who not only can figure blitzes out, he's done so to Rex Ryan-coached teams for many years.

Jets win if: Their ground and pound lasts longer than 3 plays a series. Mark Sanchez needs to be efficient and they can put some points up. Meanwhile, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie must handle Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne and the front seven have to get to Manning and force turnovers.

Colts win if: Peyton solves the Jets defense and puts up points. The Colts running game needs to be good enough for Manning's play action plays will work. Meanwhile, the Colts defense needs to make a couple stops. A bad Sanchez wouldn't hurt if you're Indianapolis.

My pick: I originally was thinking the Colts, but I've kind of waffled because I think more "experts" are taking the Jets. Also, the Jets built their team for this game, adding Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson for more offensive punch and Cromartie to strengthen the secondary. However, no Jim Leonhard hurts and I think Blair White and Jacob Tamme will make a play over the middle for Manning. I have the Colts winning 31-21.

Come back tomorrow for the Sunday playoff picks.

Revolving Recaps

Week 4 was a week which the underdogs reigned supreme, as nine of the fourteen dogs covered, with six of them winning outright. This seems like more of an indication that this season is one of those which the parity is prevalent, in the sense that separation between the best and the worst aren't that great. It will all make sense later this week when I write my first power poll, for now, here's the recaps of this week's games.


Let's start with the Jets, who had the easiest win of the week. LaDainian Tomlinson dominated today and Mark Sanchez continued his effective passing game. The Jets seem well oiled and only will get better with Santonio Holmes, Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace about to come back. As for the Bills, keep scouting Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker.

The game of the week was in Pittsburgh with another low-scoring battle between the Steelers and the Ravens. It was a must-win for the Ravens who couldn't afford to lose to Pittsburgh with Charlie Batch at QB. What impressed me about that game was how Joe Flacco was able to be somewhat effective, which is regular effective when playing the Steelers. Pittsburgh would have won had Jeff Reed hit a couple FG's, though, but that's another subtopic this year in the NFL, bad placekicking.

New Orleans continued it's Super Bowl hangover, struggling at home with the Panthers. The Saints left points early in the game by turning the ball over in Panthers territory twice. Also, the Saints couldn't score touchdowns and the mid-week acquisition of John Carney came up huge with a 3 for 3 day kicking FG's. Carolina was able to drive late, when the Saints defense turned up the pressure and Carolina couldn't even get a field goal try off. Panthers still have things to work on, but maybe they're no longer the worst in the league and Jimmy Clausen is gaining experience.

A funny game in Lambeau as the Packers had a barnburner with the always game Lions. Detroit really needs to learn how to win road games, but as Deion Sanders said on NFL Network last night, they aren't Homecoming anymore. Calvin Johnson makes his case for the best WR in football with his TD's, while Aaron Rodgers continued his impressive play. Once the Lions were stopped in the middle of the 4th quarter, the never saw the ball.

The game I figured was due to happen, the Bengals finally lost a game to a lesser team, which is bad enough, until you realize it's their archrival Browns. Yes, Terrell Owens had a big day, with 10 catches, 222 yards and a TD, but the offense still isn't that good and it's only a matter of time the mainstream media realizes that Carson Palmer isn't a good QB anymore. As for the Browns, all of a sudden, Peyton Hillis has become an effective running back. Still can't see this team play well enough to save Eric Mangini's job, and soon I want to see Colt McCoy play at QB.

The weirdest game happened in Tennessee as the Broncos rallied to win 26-20. Mostly nondescript game until the 4th when the Broncos got the ball at the Titans 1 after a pass interference call on a throw to Jabar Gaffney. After a penalty, Kyle Orton found Correll Buckhalter for the game-winning touchdown. On the kickoff, it was shades of the 1998 AFC Championship game for the Broncos as the kick was short and the Titans couldn't handle it. Denver took over, and iced it with a field goal. Still don't know what to make of either team.

This game was slightly weirder than Niners/Falcons, which played itself more like a Greek tragedy if you're a SF fan. They started so hot, getting a 14-0 lead, then let the Falcons slowly come back to make it 14-13 late in the 4th. That when Nate Clemens picked off Matt Ryan and ran it down the field, then loses focus on the run and gets stripped by Roddy White. Falcons proceed to march down the field and kick the winning field goal. Falcons survived their trap game and will move on, while the Niners continue to plummet and this might mean the end for Mike Singletary as head coach.

Instead of the Niners leading the NFC West, there's a three way tie at 2-2. The Cardinals lost another game on the road in blowout fashion 41-10 to the Chargers. Not much to say, the Chargers are playing well at home and the Cards are thinking about starting Max Hall next week. Meanwhile, the Rams had an easy win over the Seahawks at home and found themselves in a tie for first. I've been behind the Rams all year and I must say, they have the best chance to win the division. They have the best QB in rookie Sam Bradford, Steve Spagnuolo is as good a coach as that division has and Steven Jackson is skilled enough to make defenses key on the rush. The other thing to worry about is the Seahawks home field; they can win the division by going 8-0 at home alone.

Houston went into Oakland without Arian Foster for the first half. So they turned Derrick Ward into the version from the Giants early. It was close until Foster came in and ran a touchdown from 74 yards out. He scored another to make it 31-14, before holding on 31-24 over the Raiders. The Texans showed how good they are despite the loss of Andre Johnson, while the Raiders showed that...they're still the Raiders.

The play of the day happened in Jacksonville in a wildly competitive game between the Colts and Jaguars when Josh Scobee hit a 59 yard field goal to win it for the Jags. As usual when these two teams play, it was close, a back and forth contest which the guy with the ball last wins. Usually, that guy is Peyton Manning, but not yesterday. Now we have a Jags team, who I thought was among the five worst have the same record as Indianapolis.

The most hyped matchup Sunday was Donovan McNabb's return to Philly against Michael Vick's Eagles. Unfortunately for the Eagles, Vick got hit in the ribs and left the game and now won't play next week. That meant Kevin Kolb had to play again, and to be fair, he wasn't terrible and gets a chance to show how good he is with this week's game against the Niners. Meanwhile, McNabb and the Skins started fast, particularly with the running game, which the Eagles had trouble stopping all day. The second half was disjointed, but up 5 with 4 minutes left, McNabb ran for a first down, which didn't the Eagles much time for a comeback (though they came close). The Redskins win tied them with the Eagles for first with a very NFC West like 2-2.

Another team would join that tie as the Giants thoroughly dominated the Bears, even though the score was closer. Jay Cutler was battered by the Giants defense, sans Mathius Kiwanuka, to the tune of 9 sacks and left with a concussion at halftime. Once Todd Collins came in, the offense gave up and once the Giants drove down the field for a touchdown, the game was over. Still, the Giants have to clear up some areas, but the defense is getting better. As for the Bears, they now go from 3-0 and feeling good, to now at the crossroads this year with Cutler's injury. Of course, the Bears were lucky to be 3-0 anyway.

Just now, the Pats showed us Pats football. Trailing 7-6 at halftime, New England took advantage of every single Miami mistake en route to a 41-14 win. The offense did enough as Tom Brady channelled his 01-04 days while the much maligned defense took care of business in the second half. Player of the game goes to Patrick Chung who blocked a punt and a field goal, while running an interception back for a touchdown. Very impressive. While the Patriots righted their ship, the Dolphins now have lost to their two rivals at home in back-to-back weeks and if they are to win the division, they almost certainly have to win in New York and Foxboro. Troubling for the Fish, indeed.

NFL Preview: NFC and Super Bowl Pick

To read Part 1 about the AFC, click here.

Now it's the NFC's turn and the task of this conference is the supplant the Super Bowl champions, unlike in the AFC (no matter what Rex Ryan says). Does anyone have enough to do so? Here's the predictions.

(*-denotes Wild Card)

NFC East: 1. Giants 2. Cowboys 3. Redskins 4. Eagles

The thing that no one noticed about the Giants is they lost no one of significance (expect those who were terrible on defense). They have a very underrated passing attack, better safeties and an improved defensive line. If Bradshaw stays healthy, the run game will have success. The Cowboys have the attention, but their offensive line isn't good. No home game Super Bowl for them. The Redskins will be better with Donovan McNabb, but he doesn't stay healthy enough and the lack of weapons will keep them out of the playoffs. As for the Eagles, Kevin Kolb will struggle this year and the defense still is in need of improvement.

NFC North: 1. Packers 2. Vikings* 3. Bears 4. Lions

The Packers are the team everyone seems to be picking and I'm following right behind them. Aaron Rodgers will take his rightful place alongside Peyton, Brady and Brees as the best QB's in the league and they are capable of going far despite an average defense. Determining where the Vikings and Bears will finish was tough. Are the Vikes capable of returning in the NFC title game? Does Jay Cutler get better with Mike Martz? I opted for Minnesota over Chicago because it could get ugly if the Bears start slow. Lovie Smith is clearly on the hot seat. I would love the Lions if this was the West (either conference). The North is too tough this year, but next year...look out.

NFC South: 1. Saints 2. Falcons* 3. Panthers 4. Bucs

For once, the South could stay constant in back-to-back years. The best thing going for the Saints, that no one's talking about them and they're defending champs. Best thing that could happen to them and maybe will keep them grounded. Atlanta should return to the playoffs with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner coming back from injury. I also expect the Falcons defense to be improved with Dunta Robinson in the secondary. The Panthers are another team with uncertainty hanging over them with John Fox's job. They won't bottom out, but with QB a question mark, they probably won't be better than 8-8. Tampa is still in strong rebuild mode and they seem years away and it's likely not Raheem Morris to get the job done.

NFC West: 1. 49ers 2. Rams 3. Cardinals 4. Seahawks

It's clear that the Niners are now the best team in the West. The Cards have lost too much, particularly Kurt Warner (the downgrade from Warner to Derek Anderson is the biggest in 2010). Seattle is Pete Carroll's team now and that doesn't inspire hope (proved by Mike Williams being the number 1 WR). The Rams I think will be 2nd once Sam Bradford begins to get confidence. I wouldn't be shocked with them finishing 6-10. The Niners will go 10-6 as now Alex Smith seemingly is getting comfortable at quarterback and with talented players like Patrick Willis, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore as well as an improved offensive line.

1st Round: Niners over Falcons, Giants over Vikings

Divisional Round: Saints over Giants, Packers over Niners

NFC Championship Game: Packers over Saints

Super Bowl: Packers over Steelers

As for tonight's pick, I have the Saints (-6) over the Vikings in the opener. I'll have the rest of Week 1 picks Saturday morning.

Who Dat

Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints, who won the Super Bowl tonight over the Colts 31-17. This wasn't an easy win and honestly, it was pretty unexpected, especially after watching the first quarter and the Colts utterly dominate the Saints defense. The Saints looked tense and seemed like the moment was too big for them. So what happened, why did the Saints win and the Colts lose? Here are each of the key plays that made this game a Mardi Gras celebration in Miami.

1. In the Colts third drive, following the Saints field goal making it 10-3, Peyton Manning found Pierre Garcon open on a third down conversion, except Garcon dropped the ball and the Colts had to punt and wouldn't see the ball against until after the two minute warning.

2. The Saints had to go for it on fourth down inside the five because all a field goal there would have done was cut the lead to 10-6 and Manning would of had the ball closer to the 30. After the Saints failed to score, we all assumed the Colts would move the ball, at least for one first down. Instead, they call three running plays and the Saints get the ball right back and kick the field goal to end the half. In hindsight, missing the TD at the 1 was better than scoring one because if you give the Colts more field position, they probably score themselves. It was the best way to neutralize the Colts offense. I don't know who's responsible for the conservative gameplan on that series, but it was the first chink in the Colts armor.

3. Which leads to the second half and probably the perfect moment for a surprise onside kick. The Colts showed us after what would happen if they kickoff normal; they drive right down the field and score. Thus, Sean Payton was right to go for the onside kick, since 40 yards or 80 yards wouldn't have made the difference; though it's not an obvious move at all. Of course, if Hank Baskett holds onto the football, the Colts win. This onside kick was the difference between down 17-6 and 17-13 and the game is very different if it's the former.

4. The first moment that the Colts were in real doubt was the missed field goal. It's been said ad nauseum that Matt Stover doesn't have the range for a 50-yard kick, yet Jim Caldwell calls for a 51-yarder in order to chase three points. This drive was lost on third down on what I thought was the biggest mistake of the game by Manning, throwing for Collie, when Jonathan Vilma had him covered, while blanketed by two others. After dink and dunking the entire drive, including a 3rd and long which Manning setup a short 4th down conversion, he gets too greedy and forces Caldwell's hand. The play should have been the punt on 4th down, though if they went for it, I'd understand since the Saints offense was flawless. By kicking the field goal, they went safe and in the words of John Tortorella, "safe is death".

5. Finally, we come to the interception. After the Saints took the lead, the Colts drove down easily. Then on third down, Manning threw the pass that Tracy Porter read perfectly and took it to the house. I believe that Reggie Wayne was slow in his route and if he runs the route correct and quick, it's just a broken pass and it's fourth down. The shame is that one pass will be the legacy of this game for Peyton Manning, particularly those who think they know football, but have no clue (as well as the Manning-haters). Manning played a great game, though obviously outplayed by Brees.

Final thoughts:

-I watched Loud Mouths on SNY and Chris Carlin made the case that Brees had a better Super Bowl than Phil Simms. Thinking about it, I have to agree, since he needed to have a 32 for 39 game for 288 yards. Simms didn't have to have his 22 for 25 to win against the Broncos, it was just icing on the cake. Plus, Simms didn't need to lead a fourth quarter drive to beat Denver; Brees did last night. With this Super Bowl, Brees joins Brady and Manning in that top tier of quarterbacks, though he's still third behind them, assuming Brady isn't hurt next season. Also, now the Hall of Fame is a possibility.

-Somewhere inside, deep, DEEP down, I glad Jeremy Shockey caught the game-winning touchdown. You know what, no I don't, if I was saying this, I couldn't finish that sentence. I'm just glad Shockey didn't overcelebrate the touchdown or I would of probably threw the remote at the TV.

-I'd actually comment on the halftime show, except I didn't watch it. But I tweeted this at the time, why isn't there any network scheduling programming for halftime of the Super Bowl? I remember when WWF Sunday Night Heat had The Rock/Mankind WWF Title match in an empty arena and that was when they actually brought artists who I want to see perform. I wrote earlier that much of the recent musical acts have been stale, I don't count Prince and Springsteen, but we definitely need better acts at halftime, at least someone who was big in the 90s (Pearl Jam could be fine here, before they are too old as well).

-Coaching was the difference for the Saints as Sean Payton and Gregg Williams executed their gameplans. Payton took what the Colts gave and was rewarded for his guts, sorta like how Bill Parcells was in his first Super Bowl. I must say though, Payton's performance was like Bill Cowher's first Super Bowl with the surprise onside and fourth down call. Unfortunately for Cowher, he wasn't rewarded because he had Neil O'Donnell throwing into one particular white jersey with a star on the helmet all night. As for Williams, he sucked the Colts offense into the false sense of security and in the end was disrupting patterns by Manning and his receivers.

-The two villians I have to say for the Colts, Jim Caldwell and Reggie Wayne; they contributed to this defeat more than Manning did. Wayne was pretty awful, including the drop at the end of the game. The pleasant surprise, Joseph Addai, who ran well, before the Colts abandoned it in the fourth quarter. Just don't pick him for fantasy based on this game.

-This Super Bowl was very much like Super Bowl XXXII, when you have the Broncos-Packers who were arguably the two best in the NFL that season (with respect to the Chiefs and Niners), Elway vs. Favre who was just like Manning vs. Brees and almost the identical score, which each losing QB has a play they want back (in Favre's case, that final drive). Also, the Manning-Favre comparisons continue as they are both 1-1 in Super Bowls and threw the INT's that led to the Saints championship win.

-I want to see how Manning responds to this loss. His legacy isn't ruined because of this, but he can kiss Montana-status goodbye and that might have not been fair to compare him to Joe Cool. I don't think we've answered the Brady-Manning question yet and I still think his regular season numbers and performances can't just be dismissed. If the Colts are back in the playoffs again, it's because of Manning and perhaps that young defense and WR's grow up a little more and return to the Super Bowl. However, if this turns out to be the turning point of his career, we will adjust his legacy as such. Makes 2010 very interesting, other than the fact it could be the last season in a while.

-Finally, I wanted to mention the people of New Orleans who have adopted this team like no one since the old Browns and Colts in Baltimore after the devastation of Katrina. I can't help but think of Haiti because they like New Orleans had such a devastating event and maybe someday, they can find a rallying cry to hop on. It feels right that this team from this city won the Super Bowl. Those people deserve it. It's not a validation of the city being back from the hurricane, that hopefully can come after they host the Super Bowl in three years. It says that this city is past the worst and good things can come soon. Now if only I can party down there with them through Mardi Gras.

Super Bowl Preview

Today, our two week wait comes to an end (not to mention my three-week writing sabbatical) as the Colts and Saints will finally play to determine who is this year's Super Bowl winner. Before getting to a prediction, let's compare all of the various matchups that you see today.

Best defensive coach: I don't even know who the Colts DC is, while I give Gregg Williams a lot of credit for turning around the Saints defense, which was among the league's worst last season. Edge: Saints

Best city to visit: Okay Indianapolis, I might visit you for a Indy 500 one time, and you do have the Final Four often. But, you're no New Orleans and the fact you will host a Super Bowl in a few years is pitiful. Edge: Saints

Better offensive coach: It's more a contest between Sean Payton and Manning/Moore/Mudd trio. Payton is a terrific head coach and playcaller and has helped Drew Brees become what he is as a QB. Obviously, the inner circle of the Colts have done this as long as Peyton Manning has been in the NFL. The one difference, Payton does his job more alone than the Colts. Edge: Saints

Better passing game: However, Peyton Manning makes the Colts passing game what it is, despite Drew Brees greatness. Manning is almost automatic at this point. Edge: Colts

Better secondary player girlfriend: So here it is, Kim Kardashian vs. Kendra Wilkinson. The matchup that inspired this list of matchups. The one true winner, E! Network, since both are their reality stars. It would be easier to determine a winner if I watched either reality show, but I don't. I loved reading what Kendra said she'd do if her hubby Hank Baskett and the Colts win. However, there's no way I go against Kim Kardashian. Edge: Saints

Greater sporting legacy: To be fair to New Orleans and Indianapolis, most of their greatest in sports consists of outsiders winning championships in both cities. Whether you have Indy 500 winners, Super Bowl champs in the Superdome or NCAA men's basketball champs in both, it's mostly a legacy of hosting greatness, not the hometown of greatness. With the exception of Charlotte, these are the only two cities who have the NFL and NBA only. While New Orleans can claim Chris Paul and Pete Maravich, while Indianapolis can claim Reggie Miller and Marvin Harrison. Peyton Manning, however is the difference maker, since he's the greater of everyone, including his father. Edge: Colts

Better defense: The Saints have the greater ability for the big play on defense, since they love causing turnovers. The Colts have probably the most underrated defense in the league. Dwight Freeney will play tonight and that is key because he forces the Saints to focus on him and can't fully double Robert Mathis. The Saints, however, won't be in the dome and they aren't as good outside. Edge: Colts

Better offense: The Saints can run the ball, better than the Colts, so this question must be asked. However, the Colts aren't anemic on the ground and I think Manning can break a defense better than Brees can. That's not to say the Saints won't do that either, since they did that against the Pats this year. Edge: Colts

Super Bowl pick: I see the Colts winning, 34-24. Now, hopefully there will be footage of Kendra's celebration. Updated 5:25: Peyton Manning is my MVP since there's no way for the Colts to win this game without a big Manning performance, not with the Saints offense.

Randomness While Hoping Jay Leno Doesn't Take My Blog Away

Before I start the post, I'd like to take the time to show my support to the people of Haiti and those Americans of Haitian descent who are dealing with the devastation after the earthquake there, particularly one of my best friends.

-NBC this week has really proven to be the dumbest of networks. Following an embarrassment of an announce team they put together for the Jets-Bengals, now this Leno-Conan issue has completely blown up in their face. They too quickly wanted to keep Conan from leaving to another network, so they rushed him into the Tonight Show slot. When Leno didn't want to leave, they gave him the 10pm slot, screwing Conan and their affiliates in the process. Now, NBC wants to get everything back to how it was, with Leno late, followed by Conan and Jimmy Fallon. It's such a mess, you'd think Jim Dolan was in charge of NBC.

-Harrison Ford's film legacy should be as the best at finding roles which he can utter famous lines in serious movies. His latest one was so received, it has it's own YouTube clip before the movie comes out. Not even Jack Nicholson is as good with finding these roles, despite two famous lines. Not when you consider Indiana Jones, The Fugitive and Air Force One.

-Now to sports, let's start by saying I completely agree with Kevin Iole in his column about the failed Mayweather-Pacquiao fight. It's everyone's fault. Yes, I include you Floyd, you're the bully, with Pacquiao's career and reputation damaged by this. Meanwhile, Bob Arum and everyone else are just vindictive fools who'd rather have a pissing match then make money. An agreement should of been made, it wasn't because just like in Kindergarten, everyone involved couldn't get along with others.

-I'm going to make this a two-part Randomness, with Babe of the Week tomorrow. First things first, I've starting contributing at Gonzo Ball, the official SBN site for Seton Hall men's basketball, though I would probably post other sports should someone at SHU do something noteworthy. I started with covering last Thursday's loss to Georgetown and should write more posts as the season goes along. So be sure to follow me there, as well as the outstanding founder of Gonzo Ball and the soon-to-be official cast of writers.

-Time for my picks for Saturday's Divisional Playoff games. Let's start with the soon to be high-scoring fest in New Orleans, as the Saints take on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals will score on the Saints unless Kurt Warner has a stinkbomb of a game (which is very possible, though in playoff time, not as likely). However, when will the Cards stop Drew Brees and the Saints offense, at home no less. I think this plays like the 1999 game between Warner's Rams and the Vikings with Cris Carter and Randy Moss. The Rams won that one 49-37 because their offense was a little better than the Vikings that year (since Jeff George was the Vikes QB). I think the same thing happens today, except against Warner here. Saints (-7.5) over Cards; final score: 41-31.

-In the nightcap, Baltimore goes to Indianapolis (gee, where did we hear that one before) with the Ravens coming off a dominating performance against a clearly inferior Patriots team. The Colts, on the other hand, staggered into the playoffs after losing their last two games, ending a 14-0 start. The manner in which they lost seemed to infuriate everyone, since the Colts sat their starters, giving the Jets a win which put them into the playoffs. People always look at the Ravens defense and figure they will play a close game, and give Manning trouble. However, historically, Peyton Manning has gone 7-2 against Baltimore, the two losses in the only two years the Colts missed the playoffs in the Manning Era (yes, it includes one in Jim Mora's final season, the week after the "PLAYOFFS" rant). Also, Manning has thrown 17 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions with a 65 percent completion and a 103.8 QB rating. These stats tell me that Manning has the Ravens number and add the fact that the Colts are the best at primetime (which this game is being played), I have to think the Colts take care of business. Especially once the Colts know that they just need to make Joe Flacco beat you. Colts (-6.5) over Ravens; final score, 27-10.

Football Friday and Angel Stadium Review

Before my review of Week 2 and Week 3 picks, here's Angel Stadium in a nutshell. When someone says the design of the stadium is similar to Yankee Stadium, their right, though also is a little Dodger Stadium-like in design. I'm glad the crowd wasn't into doing the wave, and only had bouncing beach balls as the distraction. I couldn't stand that Rally Monkey, just annoyed me how they constantly showed it batter after batter. Yankee fans I would say was 25-35% of the crowd Wednesday afternoon; for some reason, I believe if this was the Red Sox, it would be 35-45%. Other than that, it's not really a memorable stadium, in neither good nor bad way. Now let's look back at Week 2:

- I think we are looking at last year's Ravens with this year's Jets. Rex Ryan has them playing defense just like he had Baltimore a year ago, while Mark Sanchez is just playing smart, safe football at QB. Huge win against the Patriots, who for once seem vulnerable (where have we heard that before). Darrelle Revis is proving to be maybe the best CB in football after shuting down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss in back-to-back weeks. All these tools have Mark Sanchez smiling like he's still dating LA girls at USC (though there's very little dropoff in NY, ask Joe Namath). On the other hand, Matt Stafford shouldn't be confused with Matty Ice; the Lions are still bad and it's nice to see a QB struggle in his rookie year again.

- The brothers Manning continue to show their greatness last weekend with dueling game-winning drives to steal games their teams should have lost. Peyton didn't even have the ball for more than 15 minutes, a point hammered home by ESPN afterwards. As for Eli, he bailed out the Giants who couldn't run the football or stop it on the ground. I loved hearing all the praise Eli received last week, the way Eli handles himself in a two-minute drill is just perfect. I knew when there was 3:40 left to go that it was too much time for him and he proved it. Which is more than I can say for his opponent.

- All of a sudden Jake Delhomme has company in the maligned QB group now that Cowboys fans and alumni at leaping off the Tony Romo bandwagon. Romo was absolutely awful against the Giants and was the reason the Cowboys lost in the opener in the House that Jerry built. Apparently, Jerry Jones had a lot to do with Cowboys Stadium since NBC saw it fit to show him every two minutes (as if the network name is Jones Broadcasting Company). JBC cameras even found Jerry with a no-so great moment for him, but maybe the greatest moment for all Cowboy-haters when he went digging for oil after Bruce Johnson's pick six.

- The Dolphins were also on the wrong side of the a game they should of won, but this because of some awful coaching by Tony Sparano. He went for an inside draw on 3rd and 6 with the game tied and Miami in field goal range, taking the three points, even though Peyton Manning is the other QB. Then, they run as poor a two minute drill as Eli runs one good, burning a timeout when they waste the full play clock. The other two bad coaching performances of last week include Norv Turner and Todd Haley. Haley was killed by Jason Whitlock, Mike Lombardi and briefly by Bill Simmons for his overreacting on the sidelines and his bad playcalling. As for Norv, I watch the end of the Ravens-Chargers game and I was appalled by the play selection on 4th and 2 against a team like the Ravens. I don't bail on my picks too early, but if I did, I would immediately switch the Chargers with the Ravens. Baltimore is the best team in football now that Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense is able to put up points and the defense is still there.

- I continue to be impressed by Drew Brees on a week-by-week basis as the Saints are primed to challenge the Pats scoring record and Brady's touchdown record. Their competition in the Falcons has done well to win their first two and Tony Gonzalez seems to have completed that offense, which has seen no sophomore slump by Matt Ryan.

- The rest of the unbeatens in the league include the Vikings, Niners and Broncos. For Minnesota and San Francisco, it's because of Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, respectively. For Denver, it's because of Brandon Stokely and the Cleveland Browns, respectively. The Browns are awful and I will continue to drive home the point that Eric Mangini is this decade's Rich Kotite; I still can't believe the Browns hired him.

- Kudos to the Texans, Bengals, Cardinals, Bills and Raiders for winning bounce back games after varying degrees of tough Week 1 losses. Houston puts their bandwagon on track, Arizona looked like last year; Cincy allowed Chad Ochocinco do his Lambeau Leap, TO finally did something productive and the Raiders won in spite of JaMarcus Russell's putrid passing because Todd Haley is proving to be a bad coach and the new frontrunner of the first year coach that's fired (for the record, no Raider coach is ever on the board, you can predict crazy/senile)

- The opposite of kudos goes to the Titans, Packers and most especially the Redskins. Anytime your fanbase is angry after a win, you get a negative kudo from me.


Now let's make Week 3 picks, as well as college. I apologize for finishing this late and I'm only going to show my picks for the 3:30 and later games today (Home team in CAPS):

Tennessee (+2.5) over JETS- Let down week for the Jets (Titans); Titans (Oilers) need this one.
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville- Jaguars are awful, Texans probably are good.
Kansas City (+7.5) over PHILLY - Can't trust Kevin Kolb yet, reverses if McNabb somehow plays.
BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Cleveland- Ravens haven't had a blowout win yet, it's this week.
Giants (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY- Even hurt, the Giants should easily beat the Bucs.
DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington- Never again give a touchdown with this Redskins team.
Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS- The Packers are better than last week; the Rams aren't.
San Fran (+7) over MINNESOTA- Let's just say I think the real Brett Favre will show up.
Atlanta (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND- The wrong week for the Pats to play the Falcons.
Chicago (-2,5) over SEATTLE- Last week could start good things for the Bears, Seahawks will struggle with Wallace at QB.
New Orleans (-6) over BUFFALO- Don't overreact to the Bills win over Tampa, do with Brees.
SAN DIEGO (-5.5) over Miami- Battle of bad coaches, Norv's team is better than Tony's.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCINNATI- I just can't pick against Big Ben, not against an inferior team.
Denver (-1.5) over OAKLAND- The fact the Raiders were favored to start this week was laughable.
Indy (+2.5) over ARIZONA- Cards looked too good against a bad team, tougher against Peyton.
DALLAS (-8.5) over Carolina- Romo shouldn't disappoint two weeks in a row, easily should win.

NFL Record: 18-14 (Bears were underdogs last week, not favorites)

California (-5.5) over OREGON
VA TECH (+3.5) over Miami
TCU (+2.5) over CLEMSON
Pittsburgh (Pick'em) over NC STATE
Notre Dame (-6.5) over PURDUE
PENN STATE (-9) over Iowa
HOUSTON (+1.5) over Texas Tech
Washington (+9) over STANFORD

College Record: 13-20-1

NFL Preview Part III

If you read through Part I and Part II of my NFL preview, you're wondering why I never told you my Super Bowl pick. Well, I set the stage with things that could happen for all 32 teams. Now it's time for my predictions on the upcoming season. I gave away predictions, such as the Patriots and Chargers winning their divisions and the Lions getting a win this season. Here's 10 more (that actually will expand to more than that):


1. The Eagles won't make the playoffs. It seemed like once Michael Vick joined Philadelphia, they were instantly made the favorites in the NFC. However, as I said when he was signed, Vick won't make a huge impact on this team. He may have looked okay during the preseason, but the game is played at 80 percent in August. Once the season starts, everyone plays at 100 percent and I just don't believe you can just sit for two years and comeback like it was two days. Add to that, Donovan McNabb played every game last season for the first time since 2003, I can't see that happen again (not to mention Philly fans calling for Vick after every interception). Let's also remember that Brian Westbrook also misses about five games a season.


2. This year's MVP will be a defensive player. At least in this blog, in real life, no one will vote for a defensive player because they never do. As for me, unless the offensive player had a year like Tom Brady in '07, it can't be always better than a defensive player's year. I thought James Harrison should of been in the hunt for MVP last year. I know Ed Reed, Osi Umenyiora and DeMarcus Ware are all worthy of consideration in a given year. I will say that Ed Reed will be the MVP of the league this year as he gets 10 INT's and runs three of them for a touchdown. You're top offensive players with be Drew Brees and Knowshon Moreno as top rookie, while Aaron Curry will be top defensive rookie.


3. One of the eleven first year coaches will be fired. The NFL has increasingly become harder to maintain work because the object of winning is too prevalent in the state of the game. Seeing three offensive coordinators, including long-time coach Chan Gailey, lead me to think that some of these coaches who were just hired will certainly be fired. Now Tom Cable certainly could be fired, but he doesn't count because the Raiders are bizarro world. But, I definitely could see Eric Mangini let go, in fact, here it is. The Browns will finish 4-12, the players will cause a revolt and he will be gone. Of course, we will lose more coaches than the new ones.


4. The Brett Favre experiment will crash and burn and Brad Childress will be the fall guy. You all knew that I would go out in this point of view, but I just don't see Brett Favre only handing the ball to Adrian Peterson and throw safe passes. He's a gunslinger and the only way for a gunslinger to stop slinging guns is to shoot him. While that works in Westerns, in football, they just don't get signed to $12 million contracts after a while. Sure the Vikings can start 4-1, but their stretch of Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and at Green Bay will do them in and they won't recreate the early momentum. Childress will be fired as a result and he will have company; Dick Jauron will finally be let go after a failed season with TO, same for Wade Phillips when the Cowboys finished last in the NFC East (albeit at 7-9).


5. The most disappointing team this year will be the Falcons. I know the offense can be good, but it won't be and the lack of defense and harder schedule against NFC and AFC Easts will lead to another year where Atlanta won't have two winning seasons in a row. They will be joined by the Panthers who will be 7-9 and that will end the Jake Delhomme era. It actually could be considered a successful one that almost beat the Pats in the Super Bowl, but he has lived off that Super Bowl loss for way too long. As for the AFC, the most disappointing team will be the Titans. I know you saw them play well tonight, but I just can't believe Kerry Collins is capable of two good seasons in a row; trust this Giant fan, I know. Finally, the Super Bowl curse continues, the Cardinals will finish 6-10, Kurt Warner gets hurt and miss the playoffs.


6. Seattle will just miss the playoffs and fail in their sleeper status this year. I think too many people are on their bandwagon. I just think they finish 9-7 and lose out on a playoff berth. Now if the Seahawks don't make the playoffs, the sleeper of the year is the San Francisco 49ers. I believe in Mike Singletary more than Jim Mora Jr. and even though Michael Crabtree not being there hurts, I think Frank Gore plays great and they stop enough on defense to also go 9-7 and win a tiebreaker.


7. Houston will be the AFC sleeper, though they really aren't one. This is a team that is getting picked by people who know that 5+ teams are new to the playoffs each year. I just love that offense and Mario Williams will be a beast (another player who could win my MVP). It's also a winnable schedule with games against Miami, the Jets, Buffalo, Cincy, St. Louis, Arizona, Oakland and I'm sure they can win at least 4 more. They join the Ravens as the AFC Wild Cards as the Chargers, Colts, Steelers and Pats win divisions again.


8. Washington and New Orleans also make the playoffs. The Saints become the latest team in the NFC South to go from the cellar to the postseason as the division champ, while the Redskins surprisingly carry their defense in the playoffs like in the past few years. They will be joined by obviously the Niners, Bears as the wild card and Packers and Giants as division winners.


9. This season will continue as The Tyson Zone of sports seasons. Simmons is right, the stories in the league will only get crazier; I won't be surprised to hear that a player smoked crack an hour before a game, like in Playmakers. Two serious issues facing the league, the drop in attendance this year coming up and the potential lockout. Somehow, the experience of watching a game live has to get better, because I'm better off watching at home or a friends place with NFL Sunday Ticket. Pricing has to go down so the real fans can watch the game and effect it with crowd noise. As for the lockout, do everything in your power Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith to avoid it. Problem is the owners don't know what they want, which almost derailed things in 2006. I hope sports fans are prepared because 2011 is shaping to be a year which both the NFL and NBA could have a work stoppage and MLB and the NHL have to have contracts expire around that time as well.


10. Here's the final picks: AFC playoffs have Pittsburgh beating the Texans and Baltimore beating Indy in Round 1. The Chargers beat the Colts while the Steelers upset the Patriots in Round 2. San Diego knocks off the defending champs in the AFC Championship game. The NFC starts with the Bears beating the Niners, while the Saints take care of the Redskins. The Packers beat Chicago in Round 2 as the Giants beat the Saints in the final game at Giants Stadium. The Pack get their revenge on the Giants and head to the Super Bowl. Our winner, Green Bay sticking it to Favre as they beat the Chargers. Regardless of who goes to the Super Bowl, this one will be not be thought of as a great one immediately following the game.

NFL Preview Part II

Now that we're switching from the AFC to the NFC, one thing is quite clear, this conference is more wide open. It seems like only four teams are capable of winning the AFC, while the NFC has eight such teams. It seems right that the NFC is open, last year all but the Giants didn't make it in 2007. However, unlike past years when the NFC's parity belied a weakness that gave us Rex Grossman in a Super Bowl, the conference has now become good and it's right up there with the AFC. Let's continue with the NFC preview.


NFC East- One thing's for sure, this is still the best division in the league, since the Detroit Lions still call the NFC North home. The Giants and Eagles basically split when it comes to who should win the East by most people, as well as the NFC itself. New York is set at RB, Eli Manning is entrenched at QB, the offensive line is good, the pass rush should be great and I expect the secondary to play very well (best secondary since Mark Collins and Everson Walls were there). Every story you hear about the Giants this offseason was their receivers and how they didn't do the job after Plaxico Burress shot himself. The fact is, when a playmaker (who wasn't playing well in the first place) is just taken out during the season, you can't just replace him (also the case with Osi Umenyiora). Now the Giants are ready to go into the new campaign with Domenick Hixon, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks. One more thing to remember, the Pats showed you don't need great receivers to win a title, as did the Ravens.


The Eagles are along with the Vikings the team everyone will watch because of the Michael Vick dynamic. They will try to see if Vick disrupts the offense, or turns it into a lethal one. I, on the other hand, will pay attention to their defense now that Jim Johnson has sadly passed away, Brian Dawkins left to Denver and Stewart Bradley was injured for the season. Can Sean McDermott maintain that defense at a high level? Other things to look at are will Donovan McNabb stay healthy, as well as Brian Westbrook. Either way, look out for a look at LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Macklin as two new weapons, on an already improved offense.


The team lack buzz is the team over the last few years had more buzz than the NFC West combined. Dallas comes into this season with the only thing being talked about is the new game of who can hit the Cowboys Stadium scoreboard. Is it like the catwalk in Tropicana Field where it's out of bounds when off the side, but a live ball down the middle? Will Tony Romo be able to hit it when he sees Jessica Simpson making out with John Mayer? Speaking of Romo, he no longer has TO as a receiver, thus it's time for Roy Williams to prove if he can be a number one target. I think the Cowboy defense will be good as DeMarcus Ware will challenge Michael Strahan's sack record. Two questions, can Romo finally win in December and can Wade Phillips avoid being fired for Mike Shanahan or Mike Holmgren.


In our nation's capital, the Redskins seem just like last year's team. Now obviously, Albert Haynesworth was a big move, but this defense was good already and I can't see him turning them into all-time great. Which means they need to score some points and Washington will again have trouble. They still lack a great receiver and Santana Moss isn't getting younger. Also, Clinton Portis, while great on the field, is always hurt. As for Jason Campbell, he will be punished as the offensive line isn't a typical Redskins line. Chances are, if Jim Zorn can't turn them around, he will be out the door, along with Campbell chained to his neck.


NFC North- We go from the best division to the most interesting as the NFC has three legit teams that can win the Super Bowl. Let's start with the Bears, since they made the flashiest move in trading for Jay Cutler (and because he's my picture). I don't have to ask Jake from BUSE that the streets of Chicago embraced their first good QB since Jim McMahon and possibly great one since Sid Luckman. Their season will rest on if the Bears defense can improve somewhere closer to 2006 levels. My season will rest on whether Matt Forte takes the leap, since three of my fantasy teams include him. Also, can Cutler turn a poor group of receivers into an above average group? If so, they will contend, if not, they won't. Sometimes picking football is that simple.


While the Cutler trade involved picking up a QB entering his prime, the Vikings signing Brett Favre is the case of a team so desperate that they pick up any has-been or never-was at QB. After last year's dreadful playoff performance, the Vikings knew they had to replace Tavaris Jackson as a starter and no one was excited after they traded for Sage "Finds New Ways to Lose" Rosenfels. Thus, Brad Childress with his Tony Kornheiser beard (our first great PTI look-a-like since Wilbon and Chi McBride) visited Hattesburg, Miss to bring back Brett Favre, even giving him the airport pickup, the most binding of social contracts. Now, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, they have a great run defense and a quality pass rush led by Jared Allen. They needed a game manager QB who can make a play or two. Only once did Favre prove he can do that, 2007 and that ended with an OT interception in the NFC Championship game and the next chapter of Favre's epic that he read from Roger Clemens.


Favre's old team, the Packers, have moved on from last year's drama and now are primed to have a good season as well. The Vikings have a manageable first five games, but Green Bay can really be 9-2 or 10-1 after Thanksgiving; that's how easy that schedule is. Aaron Rodgers is ready to build on his success this season (another player I need for most fantasy teams). The defense and Ryan Grant need bounce back years this season, which I believe will happen. Dom Capers coming in to coach the defense is akin to having Norv Turner as your offensive coordinator and the switch to the 3-4 will be much more seamless than if anyone else (except Wade Phillips or Dick LeBeau) made it. They also have a terrific secondary to get over any kinks in the front seven.


Here's my next pre-prediction column prediction, the Detroit Lions will win a game this year. That being said, they won't pull a Miami and make the playoffs. This year will be about watching Matt Stafford throw the ball to Calvin Johnson and seeing if anything else on this team can get better. The key question for Detroit, is Jim Schwartz a good coach or overrated as a Jeff Fisher assistant. Gregg Williams was in the middle, since he's a good coordinator, but a bad head coach. Schwartz must be a competent coach if the Lions are to have future success.


NFC South- As they switch from facing the AFC West and NFC North to AFC and NFC East, this division should drop from last year. The favorite to win is the Falcons who added Tony Gonzalez to an already impressive offense with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White. The biggest issue with Atlanta is defense since they didn't play any last year. If their offense slows down in any way, they will miss the playoffs. Ryan can't have a sophomore slump and if he doesn't, the Falcons have the offense to win this division. Keep an eye out on if Mike Peterson makes the defense play better, particularly at linebacker.

The champs from a year ago, Carolina are in the crossroads. They still have a terrific rushing attack with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith still plays here and their defensive line still has Julius Peppers rushing the QB. However, do you really think Jake Delhomme can recover from his all-time stinkbomb of a playoff game? That's how the Panthers season could come down to, though I believe their defense is overrated. I mean, imagine being a Panthers fan and you see Delhomme throw an interception, you'd think to yourself that you should leave the game at that point to avoid watching a hanging.

The best pure passer in the NFC has the Saints lurking as a possible sleeper top team in this league. Drew Brees I believe will be even better this season, which is say a lot after throwing for over 5,000 yards last year. The defense was the reason New Orleans went 8-8 since they stopped no one. The key addition is the hiring of Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator, along with signing Darren Sharper. If Williams does what he's done in the past for defenses, the Saints could go to the Super Bowl. If not, they will be 8-8 again.


Tampa Bay is the last of the three teams to fire their offensive coordinator in the last week, giving some unwelcome spotlight to new coach Raheem Morris. It's one thing for a desperate Dick Jauron to fire his OC, but for first year coaches Todd Haley and Morris, I'm puzzled. The defense will be good at times, but it's in transition now that some of the older players have left, particularly Derrick Brooks. Derrick Ward has joined them in the backfield and with Earnest Graham and possibly Cadillac Williams, the running game should be good. The rest of the offense will wait for Josh Freeman's development.


NFC West- This division is still the worst in the league, since there's no San Diego's here. Now I know what you're thinking, what about the Cardinals, defending NFC Champs and almost Super Bowl winners? Well, the fact is they didn't win, and remember the loser jinx means they won't make the playoffs. How can they break this? Another great year from Kurt Warner and the defense to play like they did in the playoffs. They also could use a breakout rookie year for Beanie Wells, so they can have some sort of running game to complement Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. As long as the Cardinals win their divisional games, they will have their shot to head back to the playoffs.


The biggest threat to challenge Arizona is the old standby, the Seahawks. Seattle is healthy this season and in circles, the favorite to win this division. It really does come down to Matt Hasselbeck playing this year (much like Carson Palmer in Cincy). The passing game is better now that TJ Housmandzadeh is catching balls for him. Aaron Curry will be the best rookie in this draft and strengthens a pretty good group of linebackers in the league. Their defense should play well as a whole and if they get anything out of the running game, watch out.


"I want winners" is the motto of coach Mike Singletary of San Francisco. The way the Niners end 2008 was good enough to gain early sleeper status. I even have a San Fran NFC Championship bet on my refrigerator door. Unfortunately, I wish my bet was an over/under, not a Super Bowl appearance since the Niners won't go that far. The Michael Crabtree mess hurts this ballclub because if there was one player they needed, it was a big play receiver to give Shaun Hill a legitimate target. The Niners need Frank Gore to prove worthy of his fantasy status and then some, as well as continued improvement from the defense led by Patrick Willis.


Finally, the Rams led by Stevie Spags. Spagnuolo takes over an awful team from a year ago who need a change in culture and attitude. The good news, Steven Jackson could be back as the Steven Jackson of a few years ago (who was number two in fantasy draft behind LDT). The bad news, Marc Bulger is still there and though he's not awful, he's not good either. On defense, they will be better as Leonard Little and Chris Long will get a chance to rush the QB like Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora did. But more than anything, this is a rebuilding year which 5-8 wins is a good thing for St. Louis.


Finally, here's the pick for tonight's opening game. I have the Steelers (-6.5) over the Titans since the defending champs always win the first game next season and it won't change my view on either team unless there's a major injury, which for tomorrow, I will be sure to highlight in case I need to.