Tomorrow will be the true start of March Madness, so today, there will be looks at all four regions. I figured that once some of the First Four games were played, and a couple of days to think about the bracket would be wise before going ahead with this post. Since there was no play-in games in this region, let's start with the South, looking at grouping the teams based on chances on advancing.
THANKS FOR ATTENDING
Western Kentucky (16) and Northwestern State (14) have no shot of an upset. Thus, we get reminded how we have no idea what the Hilltoppers mascot is and that Northwestern State has made more NCAA appearances than Northwestern, who's in the Big 10.
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE?
This is the group for Florida Gulf Coast (15), South Dakota State (13) and Akron (12). If everything broke right, an upset can occur. Akron's hurt by a suspension of PG Alex Abreu, which is a killer against VCU. I'm also pretty sure that Georgetown will be on guard for the upset by FGC. The Jackrabbits of SD State are on this list because they gave Baylor a scare last year; unfortunately I think Michigan won't allow another First Round loss (for the purposes of this and any other posts, I will, rightfully, refer to the Second Round as First Round), after the one Ohio gave them a year ago.
MAY AS WELL BE A GAME FROM THE NIT
San Diego State (7) vs. Oklahoma (10). Neither team is beating Georgetown and they are close enough competitively that seed doesn't matter. The rule of thumb is to pick against Steve Fisher-coached teams in the tourney, since they only won a game in the tourney once since 1994, right before Juwan Howard and Jalen Rose went to the NBA. Oklahoma is the pick by default.
ROCK(CHALK), PAPER, SCISSORS
For some reason, I think Villanova (9) has a shot to pull over Kansas. Problem is, North Carolina (8) looks like they will create matchup problems with the Wildcats. Which is too bad, because there's no way that the Tar Heels knock off the Jayhawks.
SHOULDN'T THESE SEEDS BE REVERSED?
UCLA (6) vs. Minnesota (11). I know why Minnesota is an 11-seed, but the Bruins are missing Jordan Adams and the Gophers will be happy to be freed from Big 10 play. They finished the year 5-11 after a 15-1 start. I think playing on neutral courts can get them back to a November-December rhythm. Don't be surprised if Minnesota can make their way to the Sweet 16; they rebound the ball very well.
DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH THESE TEAMS
Kansas (1), Florida (3) and Michigan (4) all will be picked to go to the Final Four in a bunch of brackets. Florida, in fact, has the Nate Silver seal of approval. With the Gators, I really don't like how they have absolutely zero close wins. As for Kansas and Michigan, they seem to be bad matchups for VCU and Shaka Smart's Havoc.
ELITE EIGHT
VCU (5) vs. Georgetown (2). I'm relishing this matchup with Otto Porter and the Hoyas will try to slow down the Rams of VCU who will do all they can to rev up the tempo in this one. In the end, I don't think there's enough for Georgetown to pull through past the Rams.
South Region Winner: VCU
Showing posts with label UCLA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UCLA. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Monday, March 23, 2009
What happened to March Madness?
March Madness has always been my favorite sports tournament (slightly ahead of the Stanley Cup Playoffs) because of two main formulas: Buzzer-beaters and Cinderellas. I got hooked at age 8 when Tyus Edney ran cross court and hit a layup which gave UCLA a win over an upset-minded Missouri team. The rest of that year, I remember rooting for UCLA to win the national championship which they ended up doing. The next year, I filled out my first bracket and proved to be such a novice at doing it that I actually picked San Jose St., a 16 seed, to beat a Kentucky team that would win because I didn't like them (neither did my father, probably influenced my thinking).
Ever since, I made sure to tune in to CBS's selection show, see who's in the tournament and start filling out bracket, as I'm sure everyone of you have done. Some of my highlights include: nailing the 2001 Final Four, having Duke, Maryland, Michigan St., and Arizona; memorable upsets I nailed, like Manhattan over Florida in 04, Siena over Vandy last year and winning the Xavier Hall pool when I had LSU and UCLA in the final four when I'm sure no one else had the Tigers. Of course I've had my share of busted brackets, most famously, Syracuse losing to Vermont and Kansas losing to Bucknell on the same night wiped out half my Final Four in the 1st round.
Aside from my personal successes and failures, the tournament for most of its history has seen 1's, 2's and 3's regularly losing early. Back in 2000, 5 top 2 seeds were knocked out in round 2, with two regions not having a seed higher than 4 in the sweet 16. 2004 we lost 4 top 2 teams early. Since then, a 1-seed has always made the Sweet 16 and this year no 2-seed lost early for the 1st time since 1996. Another factor of March Madness that is a staple is the buzzer beater. We all remember Bryce Drew beating Ole Miss and Mike Miller propelling Florida over Butler, leading them to the championship game. Last year's Western Kentucky-Butler game was the last game-winner buzzer beater which the game ended on the shot.
Which brings us to this year's tournament, where the best game we watched was Ohio St.-Siena; an 8-9 game which was a terrific game in its own right, for some reason had the feel of a mammoth upset. This was because people know Ohio St. and don't know anything about Siena. However, Siena beat Vandy last year as a 13, dominating much like Cleveland St. did against Wake Forest and gave my championship pick Louisville all it can handle. But if you take a look at the remaining teams, none of them are a surprise (even Arizona). The only way you have a busted bracket is if you took Wake, a team wouldn't have been a bad pick, or definitively lesser team. Now we go into a Sweet 16 with anyone who knows nothing about college basketball or anyone who never takes a chance and picks chalk at the top of leaderboard in pools across the country.
Look at my bracket; I could just as easily taken Michigan St, Kansas, Syracuse and Oklahoma because they have the higher seeds (of course, I would of had Kansas over Dayton) but I like to try to find the upsets and take chances. This year? No real upsets, aside from Cleveland St and even if Arizona would of beat Wake, I wouldn't think of it as a real upset. As for the games themselves, we are having way to many games that have potential of going down to the wire. Both Pitt games, Siena-Louisville, Memphis-Northridge, USC-Michigan St., Kansas-ND State just to name a few all could of been great games, but somewhere before the last minute, the team expected to win took control. Thus, the only good games were Siena-Ohio St., OK State-Tennessee, Gonzaga-Western KY and Wisconsin-FSU (and Wisconsin is so boring to watch, it negates it's goodness).
So the real question: Is this a one year aberration or are we starting to see a trend? Last year, we saw all the 1-seeds reach the Final Four, but the Sweet 16, although had all four 3's, had only two 2's, a 7 and 3 double digit teams. 2007 was arguably worse than this year with the only Cinderella being an 11-seeded VCU team who beat a lesser Duke team in round 1. For God sake, there wasn't even a 12-5 upset that year, much less anyone lower. However, what 2007 did have is quite a few legitimately good games: Ohio St.-Xavier, Duke-VCU, Vandy-Gtown, Gtown-UNC, Ohio St.-Tennessee to name a few. It's still too early to claim this is the end of March Madness as we knew it because we can always end up with the most busted bracket ever in next year's tournament, especially if Stephon Curry and Patty Mills stay in school another year.
There is one good thing in this tourney, now we will be treated to some terrific regional final games since there really is no clear team to beat. Pitt-Xavier, Nova-Duke, UNC-Gonzaga, Syracuse-Oklahoma, Missouri-Memphis and Kansas-Michigan St. are great matchups and we could have the best regional final in years if UConn-Memphis happens. Hopefully the games will be as good as the matchups.
And most importantly, the Final Four better end up being Louisville, UNC, Nova and Memphis.
Ever since, I made sure to tune in to CBS's selection show, see who's in the tournament and start filling out bracket, as I'm sure everyone of you have done. Some of my highlights include: nailing the 2001 Final Four, having Duke, Maryland, Michigan St., and Arizona; memorable upsets I nailed, like Manhattan over Florida in 04, Siena over Vandy last year and winning the Xavier Hall pool when I had LSU and UCLA in the final four when I'm sure no one else had the Tigers. Of course I've had my share of busted brackets, most famously, Syracuse losing to Vermont and Kansas losing to Bucknell on the same night wiped out half my Final Four in the 1st round.
Aside from my personal successes and failures, the tournament for most of its history has seen 1's, 2's and 3's regularly losing early. Back in 2000, 5 top 2 seeds were knocked out in round 2, with two regions not having a seed higher than 4 in the sweet 16. 2004 we lost 4 top 2 teams early. Since then, a 1-seed has always made the Sweet 16 and this year no 2-seed lost early for the 1st time since 1996. Another factor of March Madness that is a staple is the buzzer beater. We all remember Bryce Drew beating Ole Miss and Mike Miller propelling Florida over Butler, leading them to the championship game. Last year's Western Kentucky-Butler game was the last game-winner buzzer beater which the game ended on the shot.
Which brings us to this year's tournament, where the best game we watched was Ohio St.-Siena; an 8-9 game which was a terrific game in its own right, for some reason had the feel of a mammoth upset. This was because people know Ohio St. and don't know anything about Siena. However, Siena beat Vandy last year as a 13, dominating much like Cleveland St. did against Wake Forest and gave my championship pick Louisville all it can handle. But if you take a look at the remaining teams, none of them are a surprise (even Arizona). The only way you have a busted bracket is if you took Wake, a team wouldn't have been a bad pick, or definitively lesser team. Now we go into a Sweet 16 with anyone who knows nothing about college basketball or anyone who never takes a chance and picks chalk at the top of leaderboard in pools across the country.
Look at my bracket; I could just as easily taken Michigan St, Kansas, Syracuse and Oklahoma because they have the higher seeds (of course, I would of had Kansas over Dayton) but I like to try to find the upsets and take chances. This year? No real upsets, aside from Cleveland St and even if Arizona would of beat Wake, I wouldn't think of it as a real upset. As for the games themselves, we are having way to many games that have potential of going down to the wire. Both Pitt games, Siena-Louisville, Memphis-Northridge, USC-Michigan St., Kansas-ND State just to name a few all could of been great games, but somewhere before the last minute, the team expected to win took control. Thus, the only good games were Siena-Ohio St., OK State-Tennessee, Gonzaga-Western KY and Wisconsin-FSU (and Wisconsin is so boring to watch, it negates it's goodness).
So the real question: Is this a one year aberration or are we starting to see a trend? Last year, we saw all the 1-seeds reach the Final Four, but the Sweet 16, although had all four 3's, had only two 2's, a 7 and 3 double digit teams. 2007 was arguably worse than this year with the only Cinderella being an 11-seeded VCU team who beat a lesser Duke team in round 1. For God sake, there wasn't even a 12-5 upset that year, much less anyone lower. However, what 2007 did have is quite a few legitimately good games: Ohio St.-Xavier, Duke-VCU, Vandy-Gtown, Gtown-UNC, Ohio St.-Tennessee to name a few. It's still too early to claim this is the end of March Madness as we knew it because we can always end up with the most busted bracket ever in next year's tournament, especially if Stephon Curry and Patty Mills stay in school another year.
There is one good thing in this tourney, now we will be treated to some terrific regional final games since there really is no clear team to beat. Pitt-Xavier, Nova-Duke, UNC-Gonzaga, Syracuse-Oklahoma, Missouri-Memphis and Kansas-Michigan St. are great matchups and we could have the best regional final in years if UConn-Memphis happens. Hopefully the games will be as good as the matchups.
And most importantly, the Final Four better end up being Louisville, UNC, Nova and Memphis.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
