Wild Card Saturday

It's playoff time once again. One thing that the wild card round produces lately is a team that will make the Super Bowl. In the last seven seasons, only in 2009 did the two Super Bowl teams had byes; the previous 15 years, only five times did a team who played in the wild card round made it all the way to the Super Bowl. And if you look at the NFC, there are two teams who you can make the case should be more favored to to reach the Super Bowl from this round (Seahawks and Packers) then those with the byes (Falcons and 49ers).

Looking at the slate of games, familiarity is the name of the game for these matchups. Houston and Cincinnati faced each other last year in the exact same place and timeslot. Minnesota and Green Bay just played last week in perhaps the best regular season game of the year. It's always familiar when the Colts return to Baltimore, but add the fact that Chuck Pagano was the defensive coordinator of the Ravens last year, and the familiarity is added. On the surface, there isn't much to work with for Seattle and Washington, but both teams play in the 2nd half of the season is very familiar as both teams finished 7-1 to get to this playoff game. Since it's Saturday, let's make start by preview the NBC doubleheader slate.

Cincinnati at Houston: Spread: Texans by 4.5 

As recently as Week 13, the Texans were riding high on their way to home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Then they finished the year losing 3 of their final 4 games and now they must face a rematch with the Bengals from last year's wild card round. Everyone knows how well the Colts, Seahawks and Redskins played in the second half, but the Bengals played just as well to finish the season; going 7-1 after a 3-5 start. Cincinnati has made the playoffs for the second straight season, something they've only done once and that was with help of a shortened season (to be fair, this is the first time ever the Texans made the playoffs twice, though this is their only two playoff appearances).

The key to the success for the Bengals has been their defense, which is very strong up front and in the secondary. Carlos Dunlap has become a force at getting to the quarterback, joining an already effective combo of Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson. Losing Johnathan Joseph to the Texans hasn't hurt the Bengals as Leon Hall and Terrence Newman have been as good a CB combo as you can see in the NFL. Offensively, they need more consistency from Andy Dalton. He has weapons like A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham, yet Dalton will still make some head-scratching decisions. 

Houston has struggled offensively as the season wore on, particularly in the passing game. What has become alarming is their defense since the OT win against Jacksonville has been giving up a ton of yards and points to opponents. If they are to go far in the playoffs, this has to improve, since the Texans were built on a strong defense. 

A lot of signs to be worried if you're the Texans and the Bengals are very good defensively. I know I shouldn't pick Andy Dalton on the road, but I see the Texans finish their flame out and the Bengals will get their first road playoff win ever. 

Bengals win 17-7

Minnesota at Green Bay: Spread: Packers by 7.5

Last week's Packers-Vikings had plenty on the line (first round bye for Green Bay, Adrian Peterson's chase for Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record) but the most important thing about last week was the Packers were guaranteed another game, while the Vikings needed to win. And the Vikings got the best game of the season from Christian Ponder and another performance from Peterson which left people wondering if he's human to prevail and reach the playoffs. Now, they get the rematch against the Packers, only this time it's in Green Bay and the Packers are now in win or go home mode. 

A lot of what you see from the Vikings is the greatness of Peterson and a better defense when Jared Allen is creating havoc. Problem is that unless the defense is superior, a passing game is necessary for the Vikings to win. Unfortunately for them, Christian Ponder just doesn't add a passing game at most times. You can tell the difference in the Vikings chances in both games with the Packers. Peterson ran for 210 yards at Lambeau, then ran for 199 yards. Why did the Vikings win one and lose the other? Because Ponder threw for 234 yards and 3 TD's last week, whereas he threw for 119 yards on 12-25 passing with a touchdown and 2 INT's. So yeah, Christian Ponder is the key for the Vikings between winning and losing. 

Now, let's add the fact that the Packers are healthy at WR and that Aaron Rodgers is have his most impressive season considering that he doesn't have a OL to write home about and have to worry about staying upright half the time. Having Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb and James Jones all ready to play makes Rodgers dangerous. Having Charles Woodson back (though not the player he's always been) can't help but help the Packers, if not for nothing, keeping Tramon Williams off the field. 

Congrats on carrying the Vikings to the playoffs, AP. I know you'll show up, but I don't see the rest of the team doing so. Too much Rodgers, too much Ponder.

UPDATE: Christian Ponder is dealing with bursitis in his arm. Joe Webb would start in that case. I think Webb gives the Vikings a better chance since he's more mobile and the Packers haven't seen him yet this year. Problem is he wouldn't be in any rhythm with his receivers, and it's awfully tough to ask Webb to win a road game within a few hours.

Packers win 35-17 with Ponder. Packers win 35-24 with Joe Webb.

Last week: 8-8

Season record: 130-118-6

AFC Playoff Picture

Yesterday, the NFC playoff picture was laid out here; today it's the AFC's turn. Before we get into all the big games, let's first say goodbye to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. At this point, 8-8 likely doesn't make the playoffs (especially when the Bengals and Steelers face one another) and it's just not worth it to include either team anymore. Besides, I'd have to include the Chargers and Browns in that case and neither team is reaching the playoffs either. Here are the teams they do have a chance.


Division Leaders

Houston (11-2)- Clinched a playoff berth. Last 3 games (Ind, Min, @Ind)

The chance to put the AFC in their rearview mirror was what awaited the Houston Texans last night and they fell on their faces in New England. Instead of a two game lead over Denver and clinching a bye, they now can be overtaken by the Colts. Even if the Texans hold on to home-field advantage, no one will think they are capable of going to the Super Bowl, since a team with a good QB should be able to carve them up.

New England (10-3)- Clinched AFC East. Last 3 games (SF, @Jac, Mia)

It's never a surprise when the Pats score 42 points on someone (though, it would be if they do so against the 49ers). With their win, the Pats immediately become the AFC favorites and in terms of playoff outlook, they have an easy road for a bye and good chance at getting the top seed. This week against San Francisco is the only worry for New England left on its schedule.

Denver (10-3)- Clinched AFC South. Last 3 games (@Balt, Clev, KC)

The Broncos are in the same boat as the Pats, only they lost to both New England and Houston. Nevertheless, they have a couple easy games to finish the year, with a date with the Ravens the one that will determine if they are playing in the first round, or if they will get a bye. Right now, Brady vs Manning is a Round 2 matchup, but let's see if this can play itself out enough so that it becomes the AFC Championship game instead.

Baltimore (9-4)- Last 3 games (Den, NYG, @Cin)

The Ravens lost a disheartening game to the Redskins, but in the grand scheme of things, they had a good day as both the Bengals and Steelers lost. Looking at the standings, the only way the Ravens miss the playoffs is if the Steelers and Bengals tie and win their other games, while the Ravens lose out. Baltimore should beat any team if tied at 9-7. Still, the division isn't decided yet and a win assures them of a home playoff game. Also, they still maintain a tiebreaker over the Pats and if they win out and 49ers win Sunday, a bye is in play for the Ravens.


Wild Card Teams

Indianapolis (9-4)- Last 3 games (@Hou, @KC, Hou)

Well, the Colts barely beat the Titans, and got the loss by the Texans to give the Colts control of their own destiny. Win three games and Indianapolis miraculously goes from first to worst to first in the AFC South. Even if they don't get the South, they just need one more win to clinch a playoff spot which no one saw coming in Andrew Luck's rookie season.

Pittsburgh (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Dal, Cin, Clev)

Of course, the Steelers drop the easy one to San Diego (and give the Chargers a tiebreaker if the incredible happens). Week 16 is still looking like a play-in game between them and the Bengals, even though the Jets have started to make things close in the AFC. Remember, the Steelers beat the Jets in Week 2, giving them the tiebreaker over them.


Contenders

Cincinnati (7-6)- Last 3 games (@Phil, @Pit, Bal)

The Bengals also lost this week, but once again, their playoff position more than likely will be decided by their game with the Steelers, though they will need another win before the season ends. Chances are, the Bengals and Steelers won't get the AFC North, but if either wins out, the Ravens is tough enough to allow for one of them to come back.

N.Y. Jets (6-7)- Last 3 games (@Ten, SD, @Buf)

The Jets remain on this list by their win over the awful Jaguars and the two losses by the Steelers and Bengals. One is essentially guaranteed of eight wins, so the Jets need to win out to have a chance at the playoffs. Of course, why would anyone want the Jets to make the playoffs? Every week, win or lose, the Jets have negative attention. But with an easy schedule, playoffs aren't impossible.

AFC Playoff Picture

A running series that should have started a couple weeks ago, it's time to look at the playoff picture as the NFL begins to close it's season. Since we still have the Giants and Redskins playing tonight, the AFC is the perfect place to start. Going into yesterday, all four AFC Division leaders had a chance to clinch playoff berths. Here's a look at the AFC playoff picture after yesterday's games (Chiefs, Jags and Raiders are eliminated; Browns, Titans and Chargers may as well be).

Division Leaders

Houston (11-1)- Clinched a playoff berth. Last 4 games: @NE, Indy, Minn, @Indy.

Stand as the top team in the AFC right now and will play New England next Monday with a chance to lock up home-field throughout the playoffs. They would need losses by Denver and Baltimore to officially clinch, but they would own head-to-head tiebreakers over all three teams in case the Ravens or Broncos win. Not an easy schedule to close it out, so a loss would open the door for a second trip to New England potentially in January.

New England (9-3)- Clinched AFC East. Last 4 games: Hou, SF, @Jac, Mia.

Their win over the Dolphins locked up the division, the Pats 10th AFC East title in the last 12 seasons. They currently win a tiebreaker over both Denver and Baltimore by having a better conference record than both (since Denver and Baltimore didn't play yet, head-to-head don't count). If they can beat the Texans at home, then they are very alive for the top seed. If they lose, they would still be in the hunt for the other 1st round bye, especially with the Ravens and Broncos playing each other in Week 15.

Baltimore (9-3)- Last 4 games: @Wash, Den, NYG, @Cin

The Ravens could have clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Steelers. By failing to do so, their playoff position became a little more precarious. That schedule they have left is pretty brutal and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 9-7. They hold the 3 spot right now due to playing two more conference games than Denver.

Denver (9-3)- Clinched AFC West. Last 4 games: @Oak, @Balt, Clev, KC

It's clear that the Broncos have the easiest schedule to close the 2012 season. As long as they beat the Ravens, the Broncos are probably the favorite to land the two seed in the AFC (perhaps the top seed if the Texans struggle). Would lose head-to-head tiebreakers with Houston and New England, but a win over Baltimore would counter that.

Wild Cards

Indianapolis (8-4)- Last 4 games: Ten, @Hou, @KC, Hou

The Colts tremendous comeback against the Lions maintain their place in the AFC playoff picture as the 1st Wild Card and 5th seed. While the Houston games aren't easy, they have winnable games with Tennessee and Kansas City. And who knows; if the Texans lose to the Pats next Monday and the Colts win, they are two games behind for the division with 3 to play, controlling their destiny for the AFC South.

Pittsburgh (7-5)- Last 4 games: SD, @Dal, Cin, Clev

They are in the 6th spot because of their Sunday night win against the Bengals back in October. Somehow, the Steelers have survived this stretch without Ben Roethlisberger by getting that comeback win over the Ravens. Keeps them both in the playoffs if the season ended today and still gives the Steelers an outside shot at the division.

Contender

Cincinnati (7-5)- Last 4 games: Dal, @Phil, @Pitt, Balt

Cincinnati had their own comeback win by beating the sorry Chargers while being down 13-10 in the 4th quarter. This four-game winning streak came out of nowhere, but it's brought the Bengals in the heart of the AFC playoff race. Looking back at the Bengals, they've only once made the playoffs in back-to-back years (1981 and 1982, a strike year). These two games with the Cowboys and Eagles are must-wins, since it would be harder to sweep the Steelers and Ravens.

Mathematically alive, but pretty much done

NY Jets (5-7)- Last 4 games: @Jac, @Ten, SD, @Buf

Thanks to Greg McElroy, the Jets remains with faint playoff hopes. They needed two of Indy, Pitt and Cincy to lose yesterday, though. All won and despite an easy finishing schedule, the Jets have little chance of cracking through. 9-7 is a must for them.

Buffalo (5-7)- Last 4 games: Stl, Sea, @Mia, NYJ

The Bills also kept slight playoff hopes alive by knocking off the Jaguars at home. They also have a schedule that can get them to 9-7 since they have the Seahawks at home. Knowing the Bills, they probably will lose to the Rams to eliminate themselves.

Miami (5-7)- Last 4 games: @SF, Jac, Buf, @NE

What could have been for the Dolphins. After their dominant win over the Jets, Miami was 4-3 and schedule was seemingly easy. Then they lost 3 straight, two to the Titans and Bills and now they're also in need of winning out. Good luck with beating the Niners and Pats on the road to do that.

Sunday Wild Card Preview

Work this week didn't allow me to write up a Saturday preview (except for my Twitter thoughts), but here are my thoughts on the Saturday in football.

-If the Texans can play in Baltimore the way they played yesterday, they can beat the Ravens. Meaning they run well with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and if Andre Johnson can make a difference like he did on the TD pass. I know their defense will show up, but I expect a tougher time for young T.J. Yates on the road.

-I'd have a whole lot more confidence in the Bengals future if Mike Brown wasn't the man to decide on how to improve it. It's a lot to ask Andy Dalton to win his first road playoff game.

-Detroit is also on the right path, just need a running game and a better secondary. Now, any secondary can look bad against the Saints in New Orleans, but a running game would have kept the ball in the Lions' hands for more of the game.

-As for the Saints, what else is there to say about their offense. I really can't wait until they play San Francisco; great offense against great defense. Also curious how the Niners play in their first playoff game since Steve Mariucci's last game as coach.

Now onto today's games, one of which I will be attending. That's right, I'll be at MetLife Stadium for Giants-Falcons. Though I can be biased when the Giants are involved, I do think they win today 27-20 because the outdoors will hurt Atlanta, plus the Giants have their pass rush back, and not just Jason Pierre-Paul.

As for the late game, my first thought was no way can the Broncos beat the Steelers after the game they played against Kansas City and after losing their last 3 games. Over the past week, I've seen some people go the other way, with the worry being the Steelers who are hurt and those who are banged up. Also, too much is being made about the fact that 8-8 or worse teams playing home playoff games have done well recently. I expect some turnovers by Tebow and the Broncos and a couple play made by Ben Roethlisberger will be the difference. Steelers will win 20-3.

Revolving Recaps

Week 4 was a week which the underdogs reigned supreme, as nine of the fourteen dogs covered, with six of them winning outright. This seems like more of an indication that this season is one of those which the parity is prevalent, in the sense that separation between the best and the worst aren't that great. It will all make sense later this week when I write my first power poll, for now, here's the recaps of this week's games.


Let's start with the Jets, who had the easiest win of the week. LaDainian Tomlinson dominated today and Mark Sanchez continued his effective passing game. The Jets seem well oiled and only will get better with Santonio Holmes, Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace about to come back. As for the Bills, keep scouting Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker.

The game of the week was in Pittsburgh with another low-scoring battle between the Steelers and the Ravens. It was a must-win for the Ravens who couldn't afford to lose to Pittsburgh with Charlie Batch at QB. What impressed me about that game was how Joe Flacco was able to be somewhat effective, which is regular effective when playing the Steelers. Pittsburgh would have won had Jeff Reed hit a couple FG's, though, but that's another subtopic this year in the NFL, bad placekicking.

New Orleans continued it's Super Bowl hangover, struggling at home with the Panthers. The Saints left points early in the game by turning the ball over in Panthers territory twice. Also, the Saints couldn't score touchdowns and the mid-week acquisition of John Carney came up huge with a 3 for 3 day kicking FG's. Carolina was able to drive late, when the Saints defense turned up the pressure and Carolina couldn't even get a field goal try off. Panthers still have things to work on, but maybe they're no longer the worst in the league and Jimmy Clausen is gaining experience.

A funny game in Lambeau as the Packers had a barnburner with the always game Lions. Detroit really needs to learn how to win road games, but as Deion Sanders said on NFL Network last night, they aren't Homecoming anymore. Calvin Johnson makes his case for the best WR in football with his TD's, while Aaron Rodgers continued his impressive play. Once the Lions were stopped in the middle of the 4th quarter, the never saw the ball.

The game I figured was due to happen, the Bengals finally lost a game to a lesser team, which is bad enough, until you realize it's their archrival Browns. Yes, Terrell Owens had a big day, with 10 catches, 222 yards and a TD, but the offense still isn't that good and it's only a matter of time the mainstream media realizes that Carson Palmer isn't a good QB anymore. As for the Browns, all of a sudden, Peyton Hillis has become an effective running back. Still can't see this team play well enough to save Eric Mangini's job, and soon I want to see Colt McCoy play at QB.

The weirdest game happened in Tennessee as the Broncos rallied to win 26-20. Mostly nondescript game until the 4th when the Broncos got the ball at the Titans 1 after a pass interference call on a throw to Jabar Gaffney. After a penalty, Kyle Orton found Correll Buckhalter for the game-winning touchdown. On the kickoff, it was shades of the 1998 AFC Championship game for the Broncos as the kick was short and the Titans couldn't handle it. Denver took over, and iced it with a field goal. Still don't know what to make of either team.

This game was slightly weirder than Niners/Falcons, which played itself more like a Greek tragedy if you're a SF fan. They started so hot, getting a 14-0 lead, then let the Falcons slowly come back to make it 14-13 late in the 4th. That when Nate Clemens picked off Matt Ryan and ran it down the field, then loses focus on the run and gets stripped by Roddy White. Falcons proceed to march down the field and kick the winning field goal. Falcons survived their trap game and will move on, while the Niners continue to plummet and this might mean the end for Mike Singletary as head coach.

Instead of the Niners leading the NFC West, there's a three way tie at 2-2. The Cardinals lost another game on the road in blowout fashion 41-10 to the Chargers. Not much to say, the Chargers are playing well at home and the Cards are thinking about starting Max Hall next week. Meanwhile, the Rams had an easy win over the Seahawks at home and found themselves in a tie for first. I've been behind the Rams all year and I must say, they have the best chance to win the division. They have the best QB in rookie Sam Bradford, Steve Spagnuolo is as good a coach as that division has and Steven Jackson is skilled enough to make defenses key on the rush. The other thing to worry about is the Seahawks home field; they can win the division by going 8-0 at home alone.

Houston went into Oakland without Arian Foster for the first half. So they turned Derrick Ward into the version from the Giants early. It was close until Foster came in and ran a touchdown from 74 yards out. He scored another to make it 31-14, before holding on 31-24 over the Raiders. The Texans showed how good they are despite the loss of Andre Johnson, while the Raiders showed that...they're still the Raiders.

The play of the day happened in Jacksonville in a wildly competitive game between the Colts and Jaguars when Josh Scobee hit a 59 yard field goal to win it for the Jags. As usual when these two teams play, it was close, a back and forth contest which the guy with the ball last wins. Usually, that guy is Peyton Manning, but not yesterday. Now we have a Jags team, who I thought was among the five worst have the same record as Indianapolis.

The most hyped matchup Sunday was Donovan McNabb's return to Philly against Michael Vick's Eagles. Unfortunately for the Eagles, Vick got hit in the ribs and left the game and now won't play next week. That meant Kevin Kolb had to play again, and to be fair, he wasn't terrible and gets a chance to show how good he is with this week's game against the Niners. Meanwhile, McNabb and the Skins started fast, particularly with the running game, which the Eagles had trouble stopping all day. The second half was disjointed, but up 5 with 4 minutes left, McNabb ran for a first down, which didn't the Eagles much time for a comeback (though they came close). The Redskins win tied them with the Eagles for first with a very NFC West like 2-2.

Another team would join that tie as the Giants thoroughly dominated the Bears, even though the score was closer. Jay Cutler was battered by the Giants defense, sans Mathius Kiwanuka, to the tune of 9 sacks and left with a concussion at halftime. Once Todd Collins came in, the offense gave up and once the Giants drove down the field for a touchdown, the game was over. Still, the Giants have to clear up some areas, but the defense is getting better. As for the Bears, they now go from 3-0 and feeling good, to now at the crossroads this year with Cutler's injury. Of course, the Bears were lucky to be 3-0 anyway.

Just now, the Pats showed us Pats football. Trailing 7-6 at halftime, New England took advantage of every single Miami mistake en route to a 41-14 win. The offense did enough as Tom Brady channelled his 01-04 days while the much maligned defense took care of business in the second half. Player of the game goes to Patrick Chung who blocked a punt and a field goal, while running an interception back for a touchdown. Very impressive. While the Patriots righted their ship, the Dolphins now have lost to their two rivals at home in back-to-back weeks and if they are to win the division, they almost certainly have to win in New York and Foxboro. Troubling for the Fish, indeed.

NFL 2010 Preview: AFC

That's right, it's time for the NFL season to begin. The offseason was dominated by the Jets, who have claimed the throne from the Redskins as offseason champs (even though the Redskins gave their case as usual). They have told us all summer that they're the team to beat and now they must show us, as well as the rest of the league. So let's begin with the season preview, starting with a look at the AFC.

(*-denotes wild card)

AFC East: 1. Patriots 2. Dolphins 3. Jets 4. Bills

The Pats offense is the reason they'll win this division. Brady has too many weapons at his disposal and even with a mediocre defense, they should win 11 games. The Jets and Dolphins are very close and probably will finished tied. I just think that Chad Henne is a more dependable QB than Mark Sanchez, has the better WR in Brandon Marshall, get Ronnie Brown back for the Wildcat and won't have every team on the schedule gunning for them, like the Jets will. Ray Lewis' comments about the Jets today show what other teams will think throughout the year. The Bills will be the worst team in football, hopefully C.J. Spiller looks good and then they draft Jake Locker next season.

AFC North: 1. Steelers 2. Ravens* 3. Bengals 4. Browns

Dixon might be the key to this pick, but as long as Troy Polamalu can have a healthy season, the Steelers will be back in the playoffs. I also think Ben Roethlisberger will have a better year once he returns to football that most think. The Ravens should finish second as I think Joe Flacco will handle having a good offense positively. Baltimore's biggest issue is a defense without Ed Reed for the beginning of the year. Cincinnati gets buzz with Terrell Owens joining them, but ultimately, it's Carson Palmer that will keep them from winning. He hasn't been a top-QB since Kimo von Oelhoffen rolled over his leg in the 2005 playoffs. The Browns should be better than last year, but this division is too tough for them to be a legitimate sleeper.

AFC South: 1. Colts 2. Texans* 3. Titans 4. Jaguars

We all know the Colts will go as Peyton Manning goes. So mark them down for 13 wins and a bye. The Texans finally make the playoffs this year and finally give the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson combo more pub. The key; Neil Rackers playing good at kicker and I'm not kidding (Kris Brown's been worse than awful). The Titans play tough and have Chris Johnson, but that defense is in a little retooling mode and probably finish 8-8 again. This is the year the Jags get rid of Jack Del Rio and David Garrard. Another mediocre season and non-sellouts mean regime change will occur in Jacksonville.

AFC West: 1. Chiefs 2. Chargers 3. Raiders 4. Broncos

No, this isn't a typo, I have the Chiefs winning the weak AFC West. This is mainly an anti-San Diego pick as the losses from last year and the Vincent Jackson issue will hurt the team, plus too many years with Norv Turner has to lead to a missed playoff season. As for the Chiefs, having Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis in their natural environments as coordinators will help. Offensely, the Chiefs have talent in Jaamal Charles, Dexter McCluster and Dwayne Bowe around Matt Cassel and Eric Berry improves KC's defense on day one. I'd pick the Raiders except they're the Raiders and you can't trust them. Though, six or seven wins isn't out of the question. The Broncos will struggle early and Tim Tebow will get his chance to play.

1st Round: Ravens over Chiefs, Pats over Texans

Divisional Round: Ravens over Colts, Steelers over Pats

AFC Championship Game: Steelers over Ravens

Quick Wild Card Picks

No Babe again, but I'll give one tomorrow with Sunday's picks, and a little review of tonight's games and other NFL-related stories. As for today's games, here are my picks. I think too many people have jumped on the Jets bandwagon and even though the Bengals aren't that good, they force Sanchez to throw and the Jets will lose in that scenario by default. Bengals win 24-10. As for the nightcap, this is a tough one because Andy Reid is a good first-round coach and Wade Phillips is still looking for his first one. But, I'm more impressed with the Cowboys defense than the Eagles and no one can convince me of that otherwise. As long as Dallas controls the clock, they win. I go with the Cowboys in the close variety, winning 31-28. As for the bettors, this obviously tells you to take the Bengals and the Eagles. Enjoy the football.

RIP Chris Henry

Chris Henry died today after suffering serious injuries in a car accident. To be honest, I was working yesterday when Henry was rushed to the hospital. Apparently, he fell out of a truck after fighting with his fiancee, leading to his death. It really caps off a year where celebrity deaths were almost too frequent, whether it was Michael Jackson, Steve McNair or Farrah Fawcett. Henry was just the latest, and among the most tragic of those to pass on. Hopefully, we can see the Bengals use this to head to a championship, which unlike when Sean Taylor died, Henry was already out of the lineup due to injury so it's just a personal loss, not combined with a talent loss.


Since I'm babbling, I'll write my Thursday night pick. It's really if you think the Colts play for real tonight or just like preseason. I think they do (meaning Manning plays a lot) and the Colts win.

Indianapolis (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

NFL Preview Part I

Tis the season to be jolly, now the NFL is officially back. And with that, it's time for all of us in the mainstream media and blogosphere to write our predictions. Here at The Cycle, this will be the start of a three-part preview over the next 3 days, starting with an AFC overview, followed by the NFC and finally, I will make 10 fearless predictions and have my weekly picks that will be a staple every week. Will these predictions be right? Probably not, according to Down Goes Brown. Will I end up getting mocked when the season's over like these guys? Almost a certain. So why bother? Because that's the price of fame, putting yourself out there, like A-Rod. And yes, I know I'm the exact opposite of fame. Anyway, let's begin:


AFC East- This was arguably the toughest division last year for two reasons; the AFC West and the NFC West. Miami, New England, the Jets and Buffalo got to fatten up on both divisions. I'm sure you're curious why the Jets are crossed out; ask Denver, Oakland, San Francisco and Seattle why. Let's not fool ourselves here, the Pats have Tom Brady again and will win this division, so I won't make you wait two days on the easiest slam dunk since Lew Alcindor had them outlawed in the 60s. This offense still is very strong and Brady-to-Moss will torch D's again, followed by the sneaky Brady-to-Welker passes. The defense for the Pats isn't too bad with Derrick Burgess coming on board, though, the Seymour trade will lead to some struggles. However, any struggles on defense will be masked by the offense.


Miami is one of the top candidates of the year-after hangover (plenty more to follow) as the schedule gets harder and the wildcat won't fool anyone this year. Actually, this should be thought of as a transition year as Chad Pennington never fares well in an odd year, giving Chad Henne or Pat White the opportunity to lead the team in 2010. Remember, the schedule was very easy a year ago, including a game in Toronto. Now, they have the Bills in Buffalo and the AFC and NFC South teams to play, much harder.


Buffalo and the Jets should struggle this year as facing the likes of New Orleans and Indy won't help these teams at all. The Bills have no offensive line, especially with the loss of Jason Peters to Philly. They made the splashy move get Terrell Owens, mainly because the Bills have not mattered since the Music City Miracle murdered the franchise Francisco Cabrera-style. In five weeks, the splash will be gone once the Bills realize that Owens isn't a game-changing receiver anymore and that Trent Edwards won't have a chance to get Owens the ball. Even his fireworks will only be like lighting a cigarette instead of blowing up a building as past ones have been. Also hurting the Bills, a down year I believe in store for Marshawn Lynch and a young defense that needs to grow. It also doesn't help that the Bills were one of the teams to fire their offensive coordinator last week.


Defense is what is going to be good for the Jets as Rex Ryan takes his Baltimore mentality, along with Bart Scott and Jim Leonhart, and will impose that and his larger-than-life personality in New York. Their problem is that the offense will struggle due to Mark Sanchez's growing pains. It doesn't help that there's no big-play receiver for him to hookup with and an aging runner in Thomas Jones. I do believe the Jets will end up being a much better second half team once Sanchez gains experience.


AFC North- Of all the divisions, it seems like all of the teams involved should be where they were last year; Steelers in first, followed by the Ravens, Bengals and Browns. For a moment during the preseason, Pittsburgh looked to be in trouble when Ben Roethlisberger hurt his Achilles, but it seems like he won't miss anytime. The Steelers also return almost everyone from the Super Bowl team last year, meaning teams will again fear playing against the likes of Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.


Baltimore's defense, despite all sorts of losses from coordinators to linebackers, will still be among the elite, mainly because Ed Reed still plays football. The biggest question is Joe Flacco and if he will have a sophomore slump and needs Derrick Mason to play as well as he did last year, despite his brief retirement. I do, however, see a big year out of Ray Rice who will end up heading the three-headed monster backfield with Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain. And even with an aging Ray Lewis, him staying in Baltimore is like having a coach on the field.


Rice's teammate from Rutgers Brian Leonard has found a home in Cincinnati as we will see tomorrow on the last episode of Hard Knocks. This year's season will be remembered for the drive-by, assassin style roster cuttings by the Bengals, Andre Smith training shirtless and letting his man boobs out for America to cringe while watching and Tank Johnson doing household chores and the comedy that is caused by this. Actually, I don't think this team is going to be too bad; they have a good defense which is better with Rey Maualuga at linebacker and even Roy Williams at safety doesn't hurt them. This season comes down to Carson Palmer's health; if he plays, the Bengals could surprise, if not, they will be just as bad as a year ago, with another year Chad Ochocinco is older, another year crazier.


While Cincy tries to win with longtime coach Marvin Lewis, the Browns have hitched their star back to the Belichick tree. I don't get why the Browns keep picking up Belichick rejects; Bill did an awful job before the old Browns moved to Baltimore and Romeo Crennel ended his run as coach nicknamed Cromeo, looking just like Art Shell when he returned to the Raiders. Now, they try to win with Eric Mangini, who left after the debacle with the Jets. Doesn't a move like this remind anyone of Rich Kotite, who coached the Eagles in 1994, choked their season, then went to the Jets. You know what each of those teams have in common, snakebite history. This is further compounded by that Cleveland has no starting quarterback, where even Belichick thinks Mangini is going too far. The defense is still bad, no running game and a number one receiver who drops more than TO in Braylon Edwards (and yes Braylon, I haven't forgiven you for murdering my fantasy season last year, you better suck again).


AFC South- This division is expected to be the best in the AFC as it has been for the past four years. You can make a case for each team in the division making the playoffs (yes, even Jacksonville, which should thrill all 100 of their fans). The favorite as usual is the Colts and Peyton Manning, despite losing Tony Dungy to retirement. This Indy defense has the chance to be the best in the Manning Era (except for the four, and only four games they played D in the run to Super Bowl XLI), with a strong pass rush and a good secondary, as long as Bob Sanders is in the lineup. The real questions happen to be on offense, can Anthony Gonzalez finally become the number two behind Reggie Wayne and can Joe Addai and Donald Brown give the Colts a solid running game.


Last year's champs, the Titans, probably won't be as good as a year ago, but 13-3 would be worse for them, so the playoffs are certainly are very possible. How they recover from losing defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and DT Albert Haynesworth is their biggest question. This defense is still good, but if they don't play as well as last year, they could miss the playoffs. Also, does Kerry Collins play as well as he did last year? If the Titans win, it will be because of Chris Johnson's development, LenDale "No Patron" White with an epic contract year and great coaching from Jeff Fisher, the NFL's Jerry Sloan.


If there's a team that most of the so-called experts (you can't be experts if you pick 9 or 10 teams to return to the playoffs, I'm looking at you ESPN) are picking to be in the playoffs other than New England, it's the Texans. After last year's second half run, Houston is primed to make the playoffs for the first time ever. It all rests on the health of Matt Schaub, because if he's injured, they stay go nowhere. No way do I believe Sexy Rexy or Dan "I Run Into My Endzone" Orlovsky can get the job done, not with the Colts and Titans to deal with. However, if Andre Johnson can prove to play healthy for a full season, so could Schaub. He's lucky that Steve Slaton is a beast and Andre Johnson is a top-3 receiver in this league. As for defense, Mario Williams will end the year with 15+ sacks and make an average defense look good.


Jacksonville's projections run the spectrum of very bad and playoff sleeper. One thing we can agree on, Maurice Jones-Drew is good. They need a big year from MJD if they have any chance to win, though a big year from him might not help at all. David Garrard, if anything, is efficient at QB and though Torry Holt is old, he's still reliable to have at WR on a team devoid of great receivers. The defense is the great unknown as they will make or break this team. They play each their division foes in three of the first four games; how they fare will make or break their season. Of course, no one in the Jacksonville area will know football is being played until Florida-Georgia since each game will be blacked out, since the Jaguars can get people to buy tickets.


AFC West- This division seems like it's the Chargers to lose. Well, it is; there is absolutely no reason for San Diego to lose this division, short of a swine flu outbreak. The offense will be better than last year because I believe LaDainian Tomlinson will have a comeback year, making this offense lethal. Add in Phil Rivers passing, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson catching and Darren Sproles playing the role of Leon Washington, only better, they could score around 500 points this year. Now I was prepared to say the Chargers defense would be very good this year; now with the Merriman-Tequila incident combine the worlds of sports, reality and Twitter. As long as Shawne isn't suspended during the season, it won't hurt the defense and 11-5 or better is almost certain.


So now, who will finish second? Denver and Kansas City seem like the logical candidates, since you can't use logic and the Oakland Raiders in the same sentence, except when you say you can't and only then. The Broncos have had quite the Raider-like offseason as they fired Mike Shanahan, hired Josh McDaniels, failed to get Matt Cassel, annoyed Jay Cutler and had to trade him 50 cents on the dollar. Now they have a huge issue with Brandon Marshall, he's a jerk. It's one thing to want a new contract, but to act like a petulant little kid in practice means you should be blackballed in this league. All Denver needs is to trade him, then use his enormous talent and dominate, not even Vince Carter mailed his way out of Toronto as bad as that. Otherwise, I would actually pick the Broncos as a sleeper, because for all of what Josh McDaniels did to cause this, even Cutler said he was a good coach, plus a little defense would make the Broncos a .500 team.


The Chiefs are on that short list of teams who if they win, it's out of nowhere. This year, that group include: KC, Oakland, St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincy, San Fran and Buffalo. Every year one of those teams no one likes will win; last year Atlanta and Miami, in '07, Tampa Bay, in '06, New Orleans (hence no NFC South team is on this list). I would of picked Kansas City, since they have Matt Cassel at QB, Todd Haley is a major upgrade over Herm Edwards, and Scott Pioli is the GM. However, they traded away Tony Gonzalez and that's a red flag. They also fired Chan Gailey before the season, major red flag (see Bills, Buffalo). They will win at least four more games than a year ago, but that's still a 6-10 team in this league.


Last but not least, the Raiders. Here's the Raiders offseason, drafted an overrated Darius Heywood-Bey over the better receiver in Michael Crabtree (I have more for him in the next post), sign Jeff Garcia, then cut him fearing he could ruin JaMarcus Russell, have their coach accused of punching an assistant and basically traded Derrick Burgess and a 1st round pick to the Pats for a 3rd and a 5th rounder and an aging Richard Seymour, who still hasn't reported to the team as of Wednesday. Everyone has chimed in this last trade, from comparing him to the 10th man in a fantasy league who knows nothing about football (Oakland is the only team to draft kicker and punter in the 1st round of a draft unless they did more than kick) to saying that the NFL should take away Al Davis' right to trade. Need I say more.


Part II should be out with NFC overview tomorrow afternoon, with my Thursday game pick, Friday most likely will be when my final predictions are posted and I promise the Thursday game won't influence it.

What If Sports for the Past 25 Years

Now that we are in the dog days of sports and some time before football season, I figured what better than to start my series of "What If" blog posts in the four major sports for the past 25 years. In addition to the four major sports, I'm also going to write "What Ifs" for each NY-area teams. Let's start with the NFL, since I have neglected the NFL for most of the live of this blog, which certainly won't be the case once the season starts. There are hundreds of "what ifs" that you can discuss.



Every game has a what if the other team won; every offseason has a what if some team didn't sign this guy. But here are the ten best what if questions that can be asked (excluding the Giants and Jets) since the Raiders won Super Bowl XVIII.


10. What if the NFL didn't pick Carolina and Jacksonville as expansion cities in 1993?


After the NFL expanded in 1976 and added the Seahawks and Buccaneers, the NFL kept itself at 28 teams throughout the 1980s. In 1992, the NFL decided to expand to 30 teams, with Baltimore, Charlotte, Jacksonville, Memphis, and St. Louis being the leading candidates for expansion. Now, I know what you're thinking, isn't the real what if question have to do with the Colts leaving for Indianapolis in 1984? While certainly a what if, Baltimore had their chance to regain a team for the 1995 season. Meanwhile, for much of the process, Charlotte, St. Louis and Baltimore were the favorites and Jacksonville almost dropped out and only stayed in the hunt at the urging of Paul Tagliabue and other top-NFL officials.


In October 1993, the Carolina Panthers were in business and the second team would come a month later. St. Louis was thought they were going to win and even sold "St. Louis Stallions" t-shirts, before the NFL voted to put a team in Jacksonville and the Jaguars were born. St. Louis was at that time building a domed stadium and became attractive to any teams looking to move. After Bob Kraft bought the Pats and kept them in New England, the Rams would make the move to St. Louis. Baltimore would do to Cleveland what Indy did to them and stole the Browns, while Memphis would be the first stop after the Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee. Meanwhile, both the Panthers and the Jaguars have had more or less a mixed history of success both on-and-off the field.


I contend that if the NFL doesn't expand to Jacksonville, one of the teams that moved wouldn't have because I can't see any team going to Jacksonville. There, you compete with the Dolphins, Bucs and Falcons, as well as all the college football in the market. If they stay in Charlotte and expand to St. Louis, I think the Rams move to Nashville/Memphis and Houston perhaps stays. If Baltimore is the pick and not St. Louis, the Browns stay in Cleveland. I do think if Charlotte was the big loser, they would be in more of a position for relocation because it was a faster growing area and not as much to share in terms of football (it's more basketball territory). And finally, we avoid having a Super Bowl played in a city as bad for the Super Bowl as Jacksonville.


9b. What if the Tennessee Titans don't pull off the Music City Miracle against the Bills?


The Bills had just taken a 16-15 lead over the Titans in the first playoff game played in Nashville. What happened next was NFL history as Kevin Dyson took the lateral pass from Frank Wycheck and ran for the touchdown. This led to the Titans lone Super Bowl run and five years of relative success, while the Buffalo Bills haven't returned to the playoffs since. So what if the Bills won (whether the play doesn't work or ruled a forward pass)? Well, the Bills would then face the Colts in the Divisional Round, but other than that, Wade Phillips would of still had Rob Johnson start at QB the following season and actually would of been proven right if they won that game, after the controversy of benching Doug Flutie for Johnson in the playoff game. The Bills had a chance to reach the Super Bowl, since the Titans ended up beating both the Colts and Jaguars and Phillips more than likely is thought of as a much better coach. Of course, the Bills could flame out since Wade Phillips is the coach.


As for the Titans, this game ended a transitional period for this franchise, but if they lose, this team could have regressed to a mediocre team who may or may not make the playoffs. It also would appear to downplay the death of Steve McNair last Saturday as we wouldn't have seen him in that Super Bowl where he was famous.


9a. What if the Houston Oilers hold on to beat the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card game?


Every football fan is aware that the Houston Oilers blew a 35-3 lead to the Bills in Buffalo in the 1992 Wild Card and was seeming cosmic justice that the Titans beat the Bills in the Music City Miracle seven years later. However, if the Oilers don't blow the lead, I don't think there is a Tennessee Titans today. The Oilers would have moved on to Pittsburgh the following week after beating the Bills and knowing Bill Cowher's postseason record, Houston had a legit chance to win there. Who knows, the Oilers could of faced the Cowboys in an all-Texas Super Bowl showdown. As for after 1993, the Oilers don't hire Buddy Ryan because of a defensive collapse and no punching incident occurs, as well as the dysfunctional nature of that whole season that saw them become pariahs in Houston.


As for Buffalo, they get to avoid the embarrassment of losing four straight Super Bowls since they lose early, but I think history happens to treat the Bills better than one would think. I, for one, am of the mind that the Bills were usually the inferior team in these Super Bowls and rightfully lost. I also think it was a great accomplishment to go to four straight Super Bowls, which is difficult because if you win them all, the league wants to knock you off and the losers get demoralized (look at this decades Super Bowl losers year-afters, except Seattle). One of two things happen to the Bills, either they begin to decline or they avoid stagnation and take advantage of the early loss to improve the team to win.



8. What if Dan Snyder never bought the Redskins?

Jack Kent Cooke's death ended an era of dominance of Washington Redskins football and the Redskins since Snyder bought the team have been at best, inconsistent, and at worst, a joke. This team was never a downright awful, but every year, whenever free agency starts, Dan Snyder signs two or three name guys to huge deals and the Redskins go on and finish 8-8 or 7-9, something like that. He's made many puzzling coaching decisions such as firing Norv Turner after a 7-6 start in 2000, firing Marty Schottenheimer the following season and replacing him with Steve Spurrier. So what if Synder never bought the team?

The Redskins probably use free agency like everyone else, signs one big deal a year, and uses the draft, like you still have to do, to improve. It also leads to a better front office and not the owner or an old Joe Gibbs making all the decisions. And judging by the lack of quality in the NFC for this decade, the Skins perhaps make more than three playoff appearance and they definitely don't go through the Steve Spurrier era, meaning no Danny Wuerffel era or the Shane Matthews Band experiments.

7. What if the "tuck rule" didn't exist?

Here's the first one of these what ifs that effect championships. Going back to the 2001 AFC Divisional Game, the Raiders recovered an apparent fumble to solidify a win against the Patriots, when the play was overturned by review because of a little-known rule now infamously known as the Tuck Rule. The rule means that if the QB brings the ball back to him in a throwing motion and the ball comes out, it's an incomplete pass. Because of the rule, the Patriots kept the ball, tied it in regulation and win in overtime. They would then go on to win Super Bowl XXXVI and begin a dynasty.

As for if the rule didn't exist, the Raiders win after recovering the ball and they head to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship Game. After that, I believe the Raiders beat the Steelers in the Championship Game and go to the Super Bowl a year early. I don't think they beat the Rams as the Pats defensive gameplan was key, but a Super Bowl appearance keeps Jon Gruden in Oakland for the 2002 season, meaning the Bucs don't win the following Super Bowl, the Raiders do. Also the Raider franchise, as a whole, avoids becoming the train wreck of a franchise they have become though I'm sure Gruden would of been fired by Al Davis by now. I don't think the Pats were as effected as one would think because Tom Brady stays at QB and they probably play the 2002 season more hungry without a title. Adam Vinatieri on the other hand, loses his reputation as a clutch kicker, since his three biggest kicks occured in that playoff run, meaning he goes from possible hall of famer, to just another kicker.

6. What if Trent Green doesn't get injured in the 1999 preseason?

The Rams were due for big things in the 1999 season as they traded for Marshall Faulk, drafted Torry Holt and signed Trent Green. It seemed like the season was over before it started when Green injured his knee and was out for the season. This led to the rise of Kurt Warner, as he took over for Green and led the Rams to the Super Bowl championship. As Warner turned into America's underdog, Green continued an up-and-down career with the Chiefs and Dolphins.

If he didn't get hurt, he would of ended up with the underdog role, not Warner. People forget, Green was an eighth-round draft pick of San Diego, toiled as a backup, bounced around both the NFL and CFL before his breakout season with the Redskins in 1998, leading to his contract with the Rams. He also fit better with Dick Vermeil than Warner did, hence his success with the Chiefs during Vermeil's tenure there. As for Warner, he probably never gets a real chance to play and doesn't get to go to three Super Bowls and become America's favorite QB this side of Brett Favre. Speaking of...

5. What if Brett Favre doesn't beat the Bengals in Week 3 of the 1992 season?

After Don Majkowski got injured during a Week 3 game against Cincinnati, Brett Favre took over for Green Bay and lead them to a comeback victory over the Bengals, punctuated with a 35-yard touchdown pass to Kitrick Taylor. After that, Majkowski became Wally Pipp to Favre's Lou Gehrig, as Favre led the Packers to a winning season in '92, the playoffs in '93, and the Super Bowl in '96; not to mention the countless memories in the league since.

However, if the Packers didn't win that game, they drop to 0-3 and the Brett Favre legend doesn't start as hot as it did, and maybe he remains the failure in Atlanta. If that's the case, the Green Bay franchise never has the great run it had in the 90s. And what no one talks about, the Bengals would have been 3-0 under new coach David Shula and instead of being a poster child of nepotistic coaching hires, the Bengals continue a comeback season in 1992 and avoid the awful play this team has displayed since Mike Brown took over as owner after Paul Brown's death.

4. What if Joe Montana doesn't get hurt in the 1990 NFC Championship Game?

The Niners were winning 13-9 against the Giants when Leonard Marshall crushed Montana in the fourth quarter. The Giants would eventually win after LT recovers a Roger Craig fumble and Matt Bahr made the final of five field goals to win it 15-13, ending the three-peat hopes of San Francisco. Montana ended up spending the next two seasons injured; leading to Steve Young's ascension to the starting job and the unpleasantness of watching Joe Montana in the Chiefs uniform (actually the most successful Schottenheimer Kansas City teams)

However, if Montana stays healthy, you could argue that the 49ers would be more comfortable being a little more aggressive. I think that the gameplan they had would have happened whether it was Montana or Young playing behind center, meaning they'd run with a 13-12 lead. Young's career, however, would start a few years later and if he makes the Hall of Fame, it wouldn't be with San Francisco.

3. What if the Cowboys don't trade Herschel Walker to Minnesota during the 1989 season?

After the Cowboys 3-13 record in 1988, they were worse in 1989 during Jimmy Johnson's first year. Knowing Dallas needed a major makeover, Johnson put Walker on the trade block in 1989. Despite interest from the Giants, Cleveland and Atlanta, the Vikings offered eight draft picks and five players and the Cowboys gladly took it. Walker never played with the Vikings as well as he did with the Dallas, while the Cowboys became a champion in 4 years, using the picks to get Emmitt Smith and Darren Woodson and used other picks for trades.

However, this trade doesn't happen if Dallas accepts Cleveland's offer of a player, two first rounders and three second rounders. The Browns were looking for another weapon for Bernie Kosar and maybe a different system would have benefitted Walker as well as setting up an interesting combo of him and Eric Metcalf at both RB and kick returner. As for Dallas, the haul they get for Herschel isn't as significant and might not yield the same windfall as the added players and picks did from Minnesota. Maybe the Dallas dynasty doesn't start until 1993 or 1994 and after that, the salary cap is more of a factor.

2. What if Drew Bledsoe doesn't get hurt by Mo Lewis after the second game of the 2001 season?

The Patriots were about to go to 0-2 when Lewis hit Bledsoe later in their game against the Jets, leading to unproven Tom Brady becoming the starter. The rest is history as the Pats won three of the next four Super Bowls. Now, I kind of discussed the Pats back when talking about the Tuck Rule, but I felt this is a more appropriate what if for the Patriots.

Anyway, if Bledsoe doesn't get hurt, the Patriots don't make the playoffs and have another year like 2000. The year before, the Pats were 5-11 and looked like they were going to continue dropping. Bill Belichick was in his second year there and wasn't ready to bench Bledsoe yet and I'm sure people in Boston wondered if Belichick was going to fail like he did in Cleveland. And he would of; either in 2001 or 2002, the Pats would of fired Belichick and we may not know who Tom Brady is. However, with a fired Belichick by 2002, he certainly could have rejoined Bill Parcells in Dallas and with Belichick as a defensive coordinator, the Cowboys would of had more success and for a bonus, maybe Belichick convinces Parcells to bring Brady to America's Team.

1. What if the 49ers didn't draft Jerry Rice in the 1985 NFL Draft?


The San Francisco 49ers won the Super Bowl after the 1984 season after going 15-1 during the season. No one thought the Niners needed to improve but Bill Walsh found an unknown receiver at Mississippi Valley State named Jerry Rice that he wanted to draft. Thus he traded his first two picks to the Patriots for the 16th pick to get Rice. The rest is history as the Niners picked up the greatest receiver in NFL history, whose records are Gretzky-like. I also believe it's the singular reason the San Francisco dynasty continued into the 90s.


So what if the Niners failed to draft him? Well there were two receivers drafted ahead of Rice; Al Toon and Eddie Brown. Both had their moments and were Pro Bowls, but neither guy was durable enough to last past 1992. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were rumored to be interested in Rice and had the 17th pick (likely the reason the Niners traded up). It's obvious that if the Jets or Bengals drafted Rice earlier in the draft, they're teams would have been altered (each had franchise QB's at the time). If the Cowboys drafted him, Tom Landry would have coached past 1988 and if Jerry Jones still buys the team, he would work with Landry since the 3-13 season in 1988 season doesn't happen and perhaps the 1990's dynasty doesn't happen. If the Patriots hold the pick at 16 and take Rice, they have him and Irving Fryar teamed up and Tony Eason's life would be easier and they have a puncher's chance to beat the Bears in Super Bowl XX, instead of getting throughly whooped.


As for the 49ers, they're dynasty comes to an end in the next three or so years because Jerry Rice was the player that transformed this team and allowed them to go from Dwight Clark and Freddie Solomon to Rice and John Taylor. Solomon played his last year in 1985, while Clark retired in 1987. Without Rice, maybe the Niners last until the end of Montana's career, but I can't see Steve Young continue it without his favorite weapon. Looking back, the possibilities of Rice not ending up in San Fran arguably effect six different Super Bowl champs and more that aren't directly related to the Niners, Cowboys, Pats and Bengals. That's what makes this the greatest "what if" of the past 25 years of the NFL.