NFL Preview Part III

If you read through Part I and Part II of my NFL preview, you're wondering why I never told you my Super Bowl pick. Well, I set the stage with things that could happen for all 32 teams. Now it's time for my predictions on the upcoming season. I gave away predictions, such as the Patriots and Chargers winning their divisions and the Lions getting a win this season. Here's 10 more (that actually will expand to more than that):


1. The Eagles won't make the playoffs. It seemed like once Michael Vick joined Philadelphia, they were instantly made the favorites in the NFC. However, as I said when he was signed, Vick won't make a huge impact on this team. He may have looked okay during the preseason, but the game is played at 80 percent in August. Once the season starts, everyone plays at 100 percent and I just don't believe you can just sit for two years and comeback like it was two days. Add to that, Donovan McNabb played every game last season for the first time since 2003, I can't see that happen again (not to mention Philly fans calling for Vick after every interception). Let's also remember that Brian Westbrook also misses about five games a season.


2. This year's MVP will be a defensive player. At least in this blog, in real life, no one will vote for a defensive player because they never do. As for me, unless the offensive player had a year like Tom Brady in '07, it can't be always better than a defensive player's year. I thought James Harrison should of been in the hunt for MVP last year. I know Ed Reed, Osi Umenyiora and DeMarcus Ware are all worthy of consideration in a given year. I will say that Ed Reed will be the MVP of the league this year as he gets 10 INT's and runs three of them for a touchdown. You're top offensive players with be Drew Brees and Knowshon Moreno as top rookie, while Aaron Curry will be top defensive rookie.


3. One of the eleven first year coaches will be fired. The NFL has increasingly become harder to maintain work because the object of winning is too prevalent in the state of the game. Seeing three offensive coordinators, including long-time coach Chan Gailey, lead me to think that some of these coaches who were just hired will certainly be fired. Now Tom Cable certainly could be fired, but he doesn't count because the Raiders are bizarro world. But, I definitely could see Eric Mangini let go, in fact, here it is. The Browns will finish 4-12, the players will cause a revolt and he will be gone. Of course, we will lose more coaches than the new ones.


4. The Brett Favre experiment will crash and burn and Brad Childress will be the fall guy. You all knew that I would go out in this point of view, but I just don't see Brett Favre only handing the ball to Adrian Peterson and throw safe passes. He's a gunslinger and the only way for a gunslinger to stop slinging guns is to shoot him. While that works in Westerns, in football, they just don't get signed to $12 million contracts after a while. Sure the Vikings can start 4-1, but their stretch of Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and at Green Bay will do them in and they won't recreate the early momentum. Childress will be fired as a result and he will have company; Dick Jauron will finally be let go after a failed season with TO, same for Wade Phillips when the Cowboys finished last in the NFC East (albeit at 7-9).


5. The most disappointing team this year will be the Falcons. I know the offense can be good, but it won't be and the lack of defense and harder schedule against NFC and AFC Easts will lead to another year where Atlanta won't have two winning seasons in a row. They will be joined by the Panthers who will be 7-9 and that will end the Jake Delhomme era. It actually could be considered a successful one that almost beat the Pats in the Super Bowl, but he has lived off that Super Bowl loss for way too long. As for the AFC, the most disappointing team will be the Titans. I know you saw them play well tonight, but I just can't believe Kerry Collins is capable of two good seasons in a row; trust this Giant fan, I know. Finally, the Super Bowl curse continues, the Cardinals will finish 6-10, Kurt Warner gets hurt and miss the playoffs.


6. Seattle will just miss the playoffs and fail in their sleeper status this year. I think too many people are on their bandwagon. I just think they finish 9-7 and lose out on a playoff berth. Now if the Seahawks don't make the playoffs, the sleeper of the year is the San Francisco 49ers. I believe in Mike Singletary more than Jim Mora Jr. and even though Michael Crabtree not being there hurts, I think Frank Gore plays great and they stop enough on defense to also go 9-7 and win a tiebreaker.


7. Houston will be the AFC sleeper, though they really aren't one. This is a team that is getting picked by people who know that 5+ teams are new to the playoffs each year. I just love that offense and Mario Williams will be a beast (another player who could win my MVP). It's also a winnable schedule with games against Miami, the Jets, Buffalo, Cincy, St. Louis, Arizona, Oakland and I'm sure they can win at least 4 more. They join the Ravens as the AFC Wild Cards as the Chargers, Colts, Steelers and Pats win divisions again.


8. Washington and New Orleans also make the playoffs. The Saints become the latest team in the NFC South to go from the cellar to the postseason as the division champ, while the Redskins surprisingly carry their defense in the playoffs like in the past few years. They will be joined by obviously the Niners, Bears as the wild card and Packers and Giants as division winners.


9. This season will continue as The Tyson Zone of sports seasons. Simmons is right, the stories in the league will only get crazier; I won't be surprised to hear that a player smoked crack an hour before a game, like in Playmakers. Two serious issues facing the league, the drop in attendance this year coming up and the potential lockout. Somehow, the experience of watching a game live has to get better, because I'm better off watching at home or a friends place with NFL Sunday Ticket. Pricing has to go down so the real fans can watch the game and effect it with crowd noise. As for the lockout, do everything in your power Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith to avoid it. Problem is the owners don't know what they want, which almost derailed things in 2006. I hope sports fans are prepared because 2011 is shaping to be a year which both the NFL and NBA could have a work stoppage and MLB and the NHL have to have contracts expire around that time as well.


10. Here's the final picks: AFC playoffs have Pittsburgh beating the Texans and Baltimore beating Indy in Round 1. The Chargers beat the Colts while the Steelers upset the Patriots in Round 2. San Diego knocks off the defending champs in the AFC Championship game. The NFC starts with the Bears beating the Niners, while the Saints take care of the Redskins. The Packers beat Chicago in Round 2 as the Giants beat the Saints in the final game at Giants Stadium. The Pack get their revenge on the Giants and head to the Super Bowl. Our winner, Green Bay sticking it to Favre as they beat the Chargers. Regardless of who goes to the Super Bowl, this one will be not be thought of as a great one immediately following the game.

Randomness as Tiger Becomes Human and Favre Remains in Our Lives Forever

Honestly, I'm still in shock over the loss by Tiger Woods in a major after a 54-hole lead to a man named Y.E. Yang. It started when I was checking to leaderboard Saturday and his four-stroke lead was reduced to a tie at one point. Still, I didn't think Tiger would lose. To his credit, Yang hit the shots when he needed to like at 14 when he chipped the eagle and at 18 when his approach was within 8 feet. The thing about Tiger in the majors this year, he has not putt well at all. However, I don't think this will effect Tiger's chase for Jack's record of 18 majors like my good friend Dan of Dan's Take hints at rightly comparing Tiger's loss to Tyson against Buster Douglas (at least as a singular event of itself).

After Tiger's loss, everyone is ready to make Usain Bolt the most dominant athlete in the world and after his 9.58 performance in the 100m yesterday, shattering his record from the Olympics a year ago, who could blame them. The biggest problem Bolt has is he competes in a sport that you can't trust whenever runners put up records because of PED's. When people like Ben Johnson, Tim Montgomery and Marion Jones end up in shame after it comes out they used and were stripped records and medals, you get suspicious. However, if Bolt turns out to be clean, it could save track and field, giving the world its best pure runner since Michael Johnson.

It's stories like this that make the Oakland Raiders not taken seriously. Apparently, head coach Tom Cable punched out his assistant Randy Hanson during the Raiders training camp. Sounds to me that Hanson switched to DirecTV and the Cable Guy taught him a lesson. Just remember the last time a coach punched a coach (Buddy Ryan punching Kevin Gilbride), the Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee four years later.

I'm writing this article after the N.Y. Giants play their first preseason game, so I'm finally getting a look at these players. Big Blue View wrote a post about who should make the team and Matt Mosley at ESPN wrote about the team in camp. Ahmad Bradshaw looks ready to replace and exceed Derrick Ward as Brandon Jacobs new complement at RB, Clint Sintim will be huge as the Giants attempt to win with a 5-man defensive line and more experimental defensive strategy under new defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan. Also, for the first time that I can remember, I'm excited about the Giants secondary, after Football Prospectus thinks Corey Webster will become a top-10 CB and Kenny Phillips could be a Pro Bowler this season.

It's great to have Mad Men back on in our lives again. If Curb Your Enthusiasm wasn't returning next month, Entourage would be in trouble of going on my shelf, but I'll hang around for the rest of the season and watch Mad Men an hour later.

A couple of moves for the N.Y. Rangers, they sign Vinny Prospal to a one-year deal, reuniting him with John Tortorella and they hired The Captain Mark Messier as Glen Sather's assistant. I think the fact Prospal was willing to play for Torts again is a positive, so anything I read or watch about past Torts-Prospal issues shouldn't be a big deal. On the ice, Prospal adds a scoring touch that the Rangers still need and at a little over a million is a safe investment and Scotty Hockey is right, the first three lines for next season actually looks good. As for Messier, he now takes a job like Steve Yzerman did in Detroit and Cam Neely in Boston as he gets to gain experience before being ready for a GM job in the future. I'm curious though if he gets to be the Rangers GM after Sather retires (or if we're lucky, fired) or do they promote assistant GM Jim Schoenfeld and Messier ends up having to go somewhere else like Don Maloney did. Not to mention that Doug Risebrough, former Minnesota GM, I believe is a Rangers consultant who could get a look (though I wonder why).

Looks like the Nationals avoid letting Stephen Strasburg go to waste as they signed him at midnight. He shattered the record rookie contract by signing for $15.67 million, satisfying Scott Boras I'm sure. To be honest, he ruined my tirade that I was ready to go into. I was planning on a scathing paragraph on how Boras went too far with the demands, how Strasburg is too gullible and just follows Boras and how incompetent the Nats organization is to not sign this guy. I guess I'll save my tirade for Brett Favre since he can't leave the spotlight now that Michael Vick is signed.

I just heard the news that Brett Favre will in fact return to the NFL and play for the Vikings. Already, if you turn on ESPN, they're acting as if the Vikings just picked up '07 Tom Brady or '89 Joe Montana. They think he can just walk in and the Vikings will not only win a Super Bowl, but also help fight hunger, find a way to get the economy working and send people to heaven. Nothing in sports upsets me more than the gushing over Brett Favre, so here are facts to consider: He turns 40 on October 10, how many 40 year old QB's succeed? Also, not only did Favre finish last season with five bad performances, he also had a four-game stretch against the Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs and Bills where he wasn't good either, except the Jets won three of those four so everyone forgets this.

Ask any Jet fan what they think of Brett Favre and for that matter, ask any Jet player from last year. I never advocate injury for a player, but I'm making an exception for Brett, I want someone to knock out Favre with some sort of injury so he would be forced to retire. I'm so tired of hearing about Brett Favre that if I was a Hall of Fame voter, I would never put him in; I don't care if he has all the passing records. The last player who played this game of will I/won't I in sports was Roger Clemens and thankfully for all of us, karma intervened and he became disgraced forever. Let's hope this happens to Favre.

Randomness while laughing at James Harrison's reasoning for not seeing Obama

- I could write a whole column based on this story basically going over things that you can say "as far as I'm concerned" and say facts like James Harrison did. His full quote is here. I could say: As far as I'm concerned, the Magic played better than the Celtics last night. Or as far as I'm concerned, a player should be credited with a home run if they hit in fair out the the field of play.

- Does anyone else change the channel when ESPN has a "story" about Brett Favre, or is it just me. Fortunately, there is good news; ESPN will for a few days follow around the release of Michael Vick and make that the biggest news in the history of sports and give us a break from Favre.

- As I write this, 24 is recording on my DVR and I won't find out until about midnight, but it seems to me based on last week's episode and the "next week on 24" scenes, there is some sort of cliffhanger ending that might go right into Season 8. However, after watching Bill Buchanan die this season, I still haven't gotten over the fact Jack Bauer was exposed to a pathogen that will kill him. Or will it? Remember Jack Bauer is in the same league as Chuck Norris, Joel Quennville's mustache and Bill Cowher's chin; no longer mere mortal, but in fact larger than life in a Paul Bunyan sense.

- Speaking of Cowher, Pittsburgh fans should immediately disown him if he chooses the Hurricanes over the Penguins. If he only coached the Steelers, then I wouldn't mind if he roots for Carolina, but he's born and raised in Western Pennsylvania and despite living in NC, he should be rooting for the Pens. So, Bill, you can no longer "sound the warning siren" at least for this series or you can no longer show up in the city that made you famous, or at least get cheered. Besides, Mike Tomlin's a better coach anyway.

- I am tired of these former players who are analysts continuously say that a team is never better without a star player. The obvious example is whenever I hear someone say that the Rockets aren't a better team without Tracy McGrady, even though they performed better this year then any other year they had T-Mac. I won't say that the Rockets are better without Yao Ming, some matchups are better than others. But Tracy McGrady has been the most overrated NBA player this decade. His value was higher back in the early 00s when the iso offense's was everywhere, but his skills have decreased along with his durability. Add all his postseason failures, the success the Rockets had this season and the fact that the he still gets treated as if he's one of the ten best players in the league, which he never was during his career, and you have the most overrated player in the NBA.

- It might sound blasphemous, but I'm tired about hearing baseball talk in April and May. Everyone overrates everything in baseball during the first two months, especially when you live in a baseball-centric city like New York. That's the real tragedy of the Knicks terrible decade and the Rangers free-spending lunacy, that us New Yorkers are forced to follow baseball or do what I do and actually still follow the sports that my teams fail at when they get eliminated. I never remember baseball being as front-and-center back in the 90s because the Knicks always played well into May, either ending around this date in May or a few weeks later and the same for the Rangers during the first Messier era.

- I must give credit to Brett Gardner though, for his inside-the-park home run after visiting a sick girl, putting himself in the elite company of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Paul O'Neill. Well, almost.

- I just watched the end of the 1993 Cowboys-Giants game on NFL Network made famous by Emmitt Smith playing through a separated shoulder to win in OT. As a staunch Giant fan and thus Cowboy-hater, I must say, that was the most impressive, gutsy and clutch performance I ever saw in my life watching football.

- I haven't weighed in on the Phoenix Coyotes situation and I actually plan on devoting a full blog post on items like the NHL in the Sun Belt once all the playoffs end, but I happen to agree with Gary Bettman on one thing, if the Yotes move, they should go to Winnipeg and go back to being the Jets. I disagree with him about trying to keep the team in Phoenix or that Jim Balsallie shouldn't own a team in Hamilton. Once again, I will elaborate more about it once sports settles down.

- Now that I wined and dined you with the randomness, it's time that I give out my Conference Finals predictions. Now the NHL CF's have already started and I used The Cycle's Twitter page to make my picks. I have the Red Wings over the Blackhawks in six games and the Penguins winning in five. My reasons: unfortunately, I have to use the experience argument against the Hawks, which I hate and I generally believe is overrated. But the Wings are too good to just show up in your first playoff appearance in 5 years and beat them. They make you play their game. If the Hawks could possibly force the RedWings to play Chicago hockey, then they have a shot, but I think it's Detroit to win. As for the Penguins, I think Crosby is on a role and now they play Game 1 and the Hurricanes played a much more competitive game than they did in the previous series. That I think will benefit Pittsburgh, because they might not take them for granted. Add the fact that Marc-Andre Fleury is as good as Cam Ward, and you have a series the Penguins should win.

- Which leaves me with my NBA picks. Starting with Cleveland-Orlando, I don't see how the Magic win the series. They have no answer for LeBron and they have no go-to-guy at the end of games. Now they will have some success in this series as they beat the Cavs twice in Orlando and when they are hitting their three's, just like in Boston Sunday night, they are tough to beat. My pick is the Cavs in six games that will be a little tougher than most people I assume believe.

- As for the West, the Nuggets-Lakers series will be a very good one, depending on how the Lakers play. They should have never gone seven with the Rockets and if they played every night, it's over in five. The Nuggets have played the best of every team in the playoffs, including the LeBrons mainly because we expected the Cavs to get to the East Finals rather easy, while some people, including me, picked the Hornets to beat Denver. As for the matchup, Derek Fisher won't have to worry about running around like he did against Aaron Brooks, but Chauncey Billups will go more physical with him. The key to this series though is that the bigs on Denver (Nene, K-Mart) are tougher than the ones on the Lakers (Pau, Bynum) and the Denver bench is better. So while, the NBA, Nike and Vitamin Water are clamoring for Kobe vs LeBron (and if the refs get in the way, then this pick is moot), I believe it will be the Nuggets winning in six games and we get LeBron vs Melo, which if you remember back in 2003, that was the matchup that the NBA envisioned would occur to be like Magic vs Bird.