MLB Preview

Earlier than normal and without the National Championship game as the finale of the day, the 2011 MLB season begins today. This season begins off the heels of an offseason which was crazier than expected. Particularly, the moves by the Red Sox and Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke moving were the biggest stories. However, the hot stove has been turned off and its back to diamond where every team (yes, even the Pirates) are in first place on Opening Day, and despite the bad weather here in NYC, you can feel grass is about to grow and spring is coming. It's also time for another preview post (I know it seems like all I do are preview posts anymore) so let's get to it before the first pitch.


We begin in the reigning toughest division in baseball, and the likely toughest for the rest of time in the AL East. You know a division is tough when the fifth-place team can realistically win another division. Baltimore and Toronto are interesting because they are up-and-coming; both teams can hit well and they have young pitching that if they reach potential, could win about 85-90 games. Even that, however, wouldn't mean the playoffs for both. Tampa lost Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and many others, but they still have Evan Longoria and David Price and with good years from Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and B.J. Upton, they can easily go back to the playoffs. However, I don't believe their bullpen without Soriano and Joaquin Benoit can establish themselves good enough to pass the Yankees and Red Sox. Both teams will make the playoffs, Josh Beckett would be the key if the Red Sox win the division or the Yankees. If Beckett's can bounce back to his best, then the Red Sox advantage in the rotation is pronounced over the Yankees. If not, then the rotations are a wash, with maybe a slight edge for Boston. I think the Red Sox win it, only because the Yankees might struggle early with the rotation and whatever trade they make won't swing the division, but solidify the wild card.


The AL Central once again has Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago as their contenders as Cleveland and Kansas City continue the rebuild. The Royals are really close to being a good team, as their best in baseball farm system continues to grow up. It won't be this year they compete for the playoffs, but in 2012 or 2013, they will. I think they hold off the Indians in the battle for last place, as Cleveland is a little behind the rebuild than the Royals (meaning Orlando Cabrera is traded to a contender by July 31). As for the contenders, I'm not sold on either the Tigers or White Sox to overtake the Twins. Chicago always seems to wear down over the year under Ozzie Guillen's managing, while the Tigers don't seem to have the rotation capable of winning the division. I know the Twins lost some major bullpen guys, but if Joe Nathan comes back to his All-Star form, that negates the loss. It also helps to have Justin Morneau back in the lineup, hopefully he can have a season which he's healthy enough for the playoffs, would be important if it's the Yankees they play again.


Last year was a change for the AL West as the Angels went by the wayside and the Rangers won the division and the league. This year, both team look to stagnate a little, opening the door for a surprise winner. Even though the Mariners seem to do good in odd numbered years, they won't win this year. They could settle for another Cy Young for King Felix (better than training him). I look to Oakland as the best team in the West as they have the best rotation (and had it last year) and with Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui signing there, they have a better offense (of course, who knows with that ballpark). Anaheim is lacking in both offense and pitching to compete, despite Mike Scioscia's ability to manage. As for Texas, they will compete with Oakland to the end, but I must say, not getting Cliff Lee to resign is the difference for this team.


On to the NL, starting in the East where the Philly Phour reside. Despite the early season injuries, the Phillies really shouldn't miss the playoffs; if they do, it's an embarrassment. Speaking of embarrassment, the Mets should be the worst team in the division. I don't see how they pitch well, even in Citi Field, which will also negate the offense. Washington will be fourth, but they won't be any good until we know how Stephen Strasburg responds to Tommy John surgery, as well as when Bryce Harper moves to the majors. Florida is probably a year away from being a legitimate contender as the pitching behind Josh Johnson continues to develop more consistency and the lineup does as well, probably a good year in the new ballpark for them in 2012. The Braves will win the wild card as they are improved from last year. The pitching is still there (unless Derek Lowe comes back down) and more importantly, they will hit better with Dan Uggla and potential Rookie of the Year Freddie Freeman.


Probably the division that has the most potential contenders is the NL Central with Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Chicago and yes, St. Louis who can realistically win. I always think the Cards can compete because of Tony La Russa, Dave Duncan and Albert Pujols (even with the impending free agency). The Cubs are improved with Matt Garza and hope to have a motivated Carlos Pena who's on a one-year deal. Add Starlin Castro, Aramis Ramirez and Marlon Byrd and the lineup is good. Still think they fall short of the division, trailing both the Brewers and Reds. The Reds still have the balanced offense from last year and a dominant bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and Francisco Cordero at the back end. The Brewers offense is better than Cincy's and with Greinke and Shaun Marcum, they should have enough to win the division (and they better, they put too much into this season). No need to discuss the Astros or the Pirates, both will struggle, though Houston's closer to contention because of pitching.


Last but not least, the division of the defending World Series winners, the Giants. The division won't be as difficult now that the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, and will suffer a bad year because of it, though it might not be too long a dip. The Diamondbacks are still on the long road of rebuilding since the pitching is still porous and they still don't hit with any consistency, though they do have building blocks. The Dodgers are interesting with a solid rotation and a nice lineup, but they don't have the hitting Colorado has or the pitching San Francisco has as well. The Rockies are the contender in the division, but will need more pitching than Ubaldo Jimenez to overtake the Giants. San Francisco will struggle early, but the injuries they have seem short-term and they should tread water until healthy, then win the end.

World Series Pick: Braves over A's

MVP's: Ryan Braun and Robinson Cano

Cy Young's: Roy Halladay and Jon Lester

Rookies of the Year: Freddie Freeman and Jeremy Hellickson

Managers of the Year: Ron Roenicke and Bob Geren

Division Series Preview

Tomorrow is the start of the Division Series and it seems like while the NL favorite is clearly the Phillies, the AL is wide open, which is a reversal of recent years when the AL's favorite was defined and the NL had four potential winners. Of course, even in those years with a prohibitive favorite (usually the 02-07 Yankees), that team usually didn't win. That's usually because the crapshoot of the MLB playoffs is this round, due to the best of five. Let's take a brief look at each series.

Philadelphia Phillies-Cincinnati Reds

This is a series which the Reds will need to overachieve to beat the best team in the majors. They also will need to forget about their series from July which the Phillies had three straight walkoff wins, including one from a seven run deficit which Cody Ransom was a key player. The Reds are also facing a Phils team that has Roy Oswalt now and have Cole Hamels almost back to being the pitcher from 2008. The only chance I can see for the Reds is if Joey Votto explodes and/or Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto can outpitch the Phillies starters. Can't see that happening. Phillies win in 4.


San Francisco Giants-Atlanta Braves

Very interesting with a team that can pitch with anyone in the Giants, but have trouble hitting, while the Braves to a lot of things good, but nothing great. Lineups are basically a wash, including the dueling Rookie of the Year candidates and have very good managers in Bobby Cox and Bruce Bochy. The Braves have to pitch with the Giants and if Derek Lowe is on, they could with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. I think the deciding factor is that Hudson will only start Game 3, while the Giants will have Tim Lincecum for two starts, and a hot Lincecum at that. Giants will win in 5.


Tampa Bay Rays-Texas Rangers

Texas was going to be a sexy first round team because of Cliff Lee. However, looking at the starters, the Rangers don't have Lee going in Game 4, a huge disadvantage. Also, Lee hasn't been particularly effective against the Rays this year. So the Rangers will need to hit and after David Price, they'll have their chance to hit. The toughest issue for the Rays is that with Lee and C.J. Wilson, the Rays lefties will be neutralized, so Evan Longoria and B.J. Opton will have to step up. With Lee being saved for a Game 5, I happen to think the Rangers won't be able to win starts without Lee and with the Rays at home and able to use their awful stadium to success on the basepaths, Tampa should win. Rays will win in 4.


Minnesota Twins-New York Yankees

The biggest series of the round will involve the one AL team with no concerns over pitching in the Twins. The Yanks will need Andy Pettitte to be ready soon in order to not only pitch, but also pitch well enough to steal Game 2 in Minnesota. This series will be interesting to see outdoor baseball in October in Minneapolis and to see if the Yanks lefties can hit HR's to right, like they will in NY. Francisco Liriano had a strong year this year and deserved the top spot in the rotation, while Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing have complimented well. The Yanks will hope Phil Hughes pitches well and if so, the Yanks will win. I think the Twins have a better bullpen than we thought they would have when Joe Nathan got hurt. This helps the Twins (except Brian Fuentes) because their bullpen is better and might not have the fear when they come in. The keys for the Yanks are the same, hit, hit for power am? The Yankees should still be the favorites but they need to hit better which I'm sure they they can do, but dealing with a spacious stadium will hurt the Yanks, not to mention they have struggled in general since the All-Star break; don't think they can just flip a switch. Twins will win in 5.

Twins-Yankees Preview

The N.Y. Yankees finally have an opponent in the ALDS as they will face the Minnesota Twins who beat the Detroit Tigers in a crazy game that was a great game on the field and a terrible one from the broadcast booth. Unfortunately, Chip Caray follows the Twins to Yankee Stadium in a series that will make you glad to hear Joe Buck and Tim McCarver in the ALCS. Let's preview:


Infield: Just like in the Phillies series, there an area that one team is better than the other. Now, the Twins have good infielders in Michael Cuddyer and Orlando Cabrera, but losing Justin Morneau makes this easy. Cuddyer isn't in Mark Teixeira's league where Morneau is a push, Derek Jeter has the advantage over Cabrera (though not in a romp) and Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano are enormous differences over Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto. Advantage Yankees


LF: Delmon Young vs. Johnny Damon- While the Yankees have an all-time great infield, the outfield is not as good and we start at left field. Damon has had a fine year and his swing is built for Yankee Stadium, however he has struggled in the last month and needs to bounce back. Meanwhile, Young had the exact opposite season, starting very slow, but has been hot for the past two months, getting big hits in lifting the Twins. If you ask me in July, it's advantage Yanks, but I can't ignore the fact that is seems like Young is starting to get it and realize his potential. Even


CF: Denard Span vs. Melky Cabrera- The interesting thing about both players is that they can be moved to left field for defensive purposes, not because either guy is poor, but because left field must be addressed late in games. Great bounce back year for Cabrera and he early on had a bunch of walkoff hits. Span is a very good ballplayer who can bring speed both with hitting and defense. These two really are the same player except for Span's speed and hitting, but Melky is the 8th man on the Yanks where Span is the 3rd or 4th guy on the Twins. Advantage Twins


RF: Jason Kubel vs. Nick Swisher- Swisher has been one of the catalysts in the loosening up of the mid-2000s Yankees as his personality is more like one of the Red Sox "Idiots" from the 2004 title team. Kubel has been clutch in the past month with big HR's, picking up the slack for Morneau's injury. While Swisher's role in the clubhouse is important, he hits just like Jason Giambi, has power and plate discipline, but can't hit for average. Hitting for average is overrated though as long as your on-base is good and that certainly applies for Swisher. Advantage Twins


Catcher: Joe Mauer vs. Jorge Posada/Jose Molina- The reason Molina is here is because of A.J. Burnett, otherwise he's on the bench group. While Molina turns the Yankees into a National League team, Posada can still rake if needed, though not the same degree. However, Molina controls the basepaths better than Posada can. Wait a minute, why am I spending time on this, Joe Mauer is the best player in the AL and only Pujols could be better in baseball. Advantage Twins


DH: Jose Morales vs. Hideki Matsui- This is another reason where losing Morneau hurts the Twins; before you have Cuddyer in right field and Kubel as DH. Morales just doesn't stack up when compared with Matsui, who has hit as well as he has since four years. Advantage Yankees


Starting pitching: The Yankees can pitch only three guys, the Twins need to pitch four. None of the Twins starters can dominate like CC Sabathia or even A.J. Burnett. Carl Pavano is prominently involved and is cited as a positive for the Twins. Burnett gets to use his personal catcher for his starts, so he better pitch well, since Andy Pettitte will only start one game. Advantage Yankees


Bullpen: Unlike the starters, the bullpens are much closer mainly because Joe Nathan is, if not as good as Mariano Rivera, he's at least one notch below. They also have four relievers in Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares who have pitched very well on the Twins. Obviously, the Yanks have Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson who have done well and perhaps the Yanks will see the old Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen. Even


Bench: The Twins bench has more speed than power, and is more likely to steal a base than get a big hit with guys like Alexi Casilla and Carlos "Does my run last night even out the Johan Santana trade" Gomez. The Yankees I have to say have their best bench in years with Eric Hinske and Jerry Hairston Jr. and counter the speed with Brett Gardner. Advantage Yankees


Manager: Ron Gardenhire vs. Joe Girardi- Girardi to be fair has done a good job on this Yankees team, though I think he could have handled this Burnett-Posada situation better. Naturally, because I follow the Yankees all year and the Twins I barely watch, I will be picking more nits with Joe than Ron. I just watch the Twins year in and year out and they are just the same and that has to do with Gardenhire. Plus, he's managed in postseason, while Girardi is now in his first. Advantage Twins


Intangibles: The word intangibles in the dictionary has a picture of the Twins. The Yankees looseness is the best I can come up with. The Twins have the momentum of a 17-4 run that put them in the playoffs, while playing without Morneau. I said before how Morneau is a big loss; well the Twins don't realize that yet. Also, I know the Yankees have played well in the Metrodome, but right now, that place has a magic that's hard to just write off. Advantage Twins


The Twins will win if: Murphy's Law prevails for both teams. Unlike any other series, the Twins must have each of the following happen: CC continues postseason struggles; Burnett blows up in Game 2; each Yankee in the lineup goes on a slump, leading to more A-Rod in postseason talk; the Metrodome proves to be a huge home-field advantage; Mauer plays MVP-like and their hitters follow suit.


The Yankees will win if: Anything from the above doesn't happen. Let's put it this way, if the Yankees lose this series to the Twins, only the Red Sox in 2004 would be a worse loss. Almost every advantage belongs to the Yankees and they must win this series or people should be fired.


Prediction: Yankees in four

AL Power Poll

The dust has settled from the trade deadline, though I'm certain we will see a great deal of August trades this year. Even so, this is the perfect time to rank all of baseball from worst to first as a bit of a preview for the final two months and a more official prediction than you saw during my All-Star column. In fact, this should read more like my NBA Power Poll back in April. One little quirk: I will compare each team today and with the NL next week with the historical team they most resemble. Let's get started.

14. Kansas City- '97 Phillies: Like those Phillies, the Royals are terrible, but can trot Zack Greinke every fifth day, which is what the Phillies did with Curt Schilling. Unlike like those Phillies, the Royals did nothing at the trade deadline except take on Yuniesky Betancourt's awful (for them) contract. They should of dealt players away like the Pirates and Indians did, except Greinke. Instead, they continue to be a sad-sack franchise who's payroll is too high for a team that will be the worst in the AL.

13. Cleveland- '95 Expos: Just like Montreal, the Indians have torn apart a team that were very close to winning a World Series (certainly not the same scenario). Now, the Indians have traded two Cy Young winners and a couple of valuable hitters because of the awful contracts of Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook and Kerry Wood. Those three contracts all are easily in the top-10 in worst contracts in baseball and you can't play in Cleveland and have three contracts that bad. Add the fact that the Indians are losing $16 million for next season, and we might have our next broke franchise, unless LeBron knows how to play baseball. Then again, if he did, he'd sign with the Yankees.

12. Oakland- '95 A's: This was the last year of Tony La Russa's nine-year run in Oakland, who by this time was losing his genius status as A's manager (though would retain it in St. Louis). Billy Beane this season has started to do the same as this A's team has no one besides a washed-up Nomar Garciaparra following the Matt Holliday trade. Maybe Brett Wallace will be good in the future, maybe Gio Gonzalez as well and maybe Beane will find some good draft picks in the next few years. However, his career could end up just like the movie about his and Michael Lewis' book, on the shelf.

11. Baltimore- '93 Indians: That Cleveland team was a year away from becoming one of the best teams during the '90s. They started playing Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton and Manny Ramirez with regularity. Now, the Orioles are about to be the same thing as the Indians, they will be the third team who could beat the Yanks and/or Red Sox in a given year once the Rays crumble under small-market tendencies. Baltimore has the offense of the future with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters headlining a potent lineup and the pitching is on it's way in a few years. More importantly, this team is capable of sustaining success as long as Peter Angelos is willing to spend, which he's done before.

10. Toronto- '97 Expos: The situation the Blue Jays are about to go through already occurred with Montreal. The Expos never signed Pedro Martinez long-term and after his Cy Young season, had to trade him to Boston for the Carl Pavano pu-pu platter. Now, Roy Halladay wasn't dealt before the trade deadline at his highest value and now Toronto will receive much less than they should have if they weren't so steadfast to their price. However, if Alex Rios really was claimed, they should start doing cartwheels to be rid of his contract and be sure not to mess up and ask for a player.

9. Seattle- '02 Expos: Another team following the Expos playbook; this team straddled the fence between buyer and seller. No team ever did this as well as the Mariners this year. Two trades they will look back as either great or awful; the Jack Wilson/Ian Snell trade which they gave the Pirates five prospects and the Jarrod Washburn trade which is contingent on Luke French's success and Seattle's chance to resign Washburn in the offseason in a very hockey-like move (see Tkachuk, Keith).

8. Minnesota- '03 Cards: Now we finally get to the meat of the league. The Twins are always capable of making the playoffs, just like the Cardinals for the bulk of the Tony La Russa era. You can't write them off when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau hit for you and Joe Nathan is as good a closer as there is in baseball. However, the rotation seems to be lacking (they traded for Carl Pavano today) and the rest of the lineup isn't any good. Honestly, by now the Twins should have started to see good things from the Johan Santana trade and obviously that's not the case. Of the eight playoff contenders, Minnesota is most likely to miss the playoffs.

7. Chicago- '89 Mets: It seems like the White Sox still have the reputation of a winning team, like those Mets did. They both also acquired a former Cy Young winner at the trade deadline, giving up pitchers in return. Those not as bad as the Mets in 1989, the White Sox offense has declined and the pitching is about even for both teams. Most importantly, the Mets were in contention for much of the year but fell short and I think that's what will happen for the White Sox with the AL Central becoming better as the season went on. Plus the Peavy trade won't make them better this year, and happens to make them worse because Clayton Richard is better than whomever they trot out in his place, while Peavy gets healthy. Also, if the White Sox decided to claim Alex Rios, they take on another $10 million+ contract without any guarantee of success.

6. Tampa Bay- '07 Tigers: Detroit seemed like they would be better after picking up Gary Sheffield in the offseason and maintained everyone else, until the pitching let them down. The Rays are about to fall victim the same way as their pitching hasn't returned to form at all, neutralizing a good offense. Their bullpen is still iffy and starters like Scott Kazmir and James Shields have been mediocre when we expected the rotation to continue improvement. It seems like their pitchers are feeling the effects of pitching through the World Series, like the Tigers before. Their offense has kept them in the hunt, like Detroit did, but it seems like now the World Series loser is becoming like the Super Bowl loser; they fall apart the year after. However, the wild card in the AL will have a flaw and they have the offense to steal the last spot in the playoffs.

5. Boston- '06 Red Sox: This Red Sox team reminds me so much of the Sox in 2006; won the title two years earlier, lost in the playoffs as a wild card and now seemingly falling apart. Kevin Youkilis has been huge for this team, Jason Bay started hotter than anyone and Dustin Pedroia has moved his average back to .308. Also, Josh Beckett is pitching is typically good odd-numbered year, Jon Lester has bounced back from early trouble and the bullpen has generally pitched as good as advertised.

However, this lineup is still weaker then normal since David Ortiz and Jason Varitek are automatic outs and they haven't been making clutch hits as of late. Also, they rotation, once thought to be as good as any in baseball, now is very weak as John Smoltz pitched like Chien-Ming Wang back in April, Tim Wakefield and Dice-K are hurt and Clay Bucholtz is a tweener; great in the minors, mediocre in the majors (like Kei Igawa) only the no-hitter he pitched still gets everyone thinking he can be good. If Boston makes the playoffs, they need to have Victor Martinez join Youkilis and Pedroia as the real hitting threats and they need to find an arm to acquire, maybe Jon Garland if the D-Backs make him available. I think of all the teams, they will be the ones to most regret not going all in for Roy Halladay.

4. Texas- '07 Rockies: Now while I do throw the label of the Rockies for this Rangers team, let's let it be known that no one has any idea if the Rangers can win 21 of 22 games to reach the World Series. In fact, the AL is too tough for anyone to do that in the playoffs. However, Texas if finally getting enough pitching to compete, like Colorado did that year, which is the real question for both teams annually. The real question left for Texas is can they survive the final month of summer and still have enough to continue through into September. One thing to remember, the Rangers have beaten the Angels eight of their ten games entering Saturday's game, just like the Red Sox against the Yankees.

The Rangers offense isn't as strong as it generally has been since Josh Hamilton has been hurt and ineffective when healthy. Their offense is on pace to score less than 100 runs from last year. They're winning because they're on pace to give up less than 250 runs, which is amazing to say the least. The bullpen has been great for the Rangers this year; hard throwers who have found control this year, while Kevin Millwood has been quietly effective and Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter have stepped up as well. Michael Young, after the switch to 3B and his demand for a trade, is having an MVP-like season. They look like the wild card in this league.

3. Detroit- '87 Tigers & '91 Twins: Both teams fit for the Tigers mainly since the Doyle Alexander trade for John Smoltz might end up being the Jarrod Washburn for Luke French trade if French is great. Everyone forgets that Alexander went 9-0 during the stretch run as the Tigers returned to the playoffs. They compare with those Tigers also by having a strong rotation support a weak bullpen. They play more like the Twins though as the offense is above-average like Detroit's offense has become. Also, they have bounced back from worst-to-first like the Twins did, yet still had recent success to harp on during the dog days. Washburn joining Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello for a fearsome foursome of starters for the playoffs.

This is the AL team you want to avoid in the Division Series because they can pitch as well as anyone. And if they play the series that skips a day, they would only need to use Verlander, Jackson and Washburn in a series, each of whom has pitched his team to the World Series. While the bullpen and lineup do leave something to be desired, Miguel Cabrera is having an MVP season and Fernando Rodney is a legit closer. Think of the Tigers as the top sleeper because of their starters.

2. New York- "93 Blue Jays : The lineup is just as stacked as the Blue Jays were during their second championship season, while the pitching was good, but can give up some runs. The major difference between those Jays and these Yankees is the fact that Toronto were the defending champs, but the free agent spending spree by both teams were similar as Toronto signed Paul Molitor and Dave Stewart. In the past few weeks, it's become obvious that the Yankees are headed to the playoffs and now we need to see where they end up. Ever since A-Rod has returned, the Yankees have gone 54-27; as Tim McCarver said, that's winning two out of every three games. The pitching has been good mostly, great at times (like last night), awful at others (last Saturday).

The biggest issue of this Yankees team is can they beat the Red Sox and/or Angels in a playoff series. Now the Yankees have took the last two games against the Red Sox, but if that's the Red Sox team that will continue this season, the Red Sox are a non-factor. The Angels are different, they were just swept in Anaheim before the All-Star break in almost every way you can lose a series. They should be worried about the White Sox and Detroit as well; if they lose one at Yankee Stadium, they could be beat on the road in Round 1.

1. Los Angeles- '02 Angels: This Angels team is the most like their one World Series winner. They have started to hit as well as they did back then and have done it without Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter for large stretches this year. The pitching has got better and I still think they will continue to improve from earlier this year when they lost three starters, one of which tragically in Nick Adenhart. However, this rotation is probably as thought of as the rotation was in 2002. They had guys like Ramon Ortiz and a past-his-prime Kevin Appier pitching in the playoffs. One thing to be aware, Mike Scioscia will always have the team ready to play everyday and that is something you don't overlook.

Honestly, if the Red Sox were doing better, I would of had them ahead of the Angels because they always beat them. However, the Angels always beat the Yankees; all they need is to win one at Yankee Stadium in any series it seems and they finish them at Angel Stadium. Also, I'm sure Bobby Abreu would love to beat his old team. Look at the Angels lineup and everyone is hitting above .290 except Howie Kendrick and Gary Matthews Jr. Matthews won't play once Hunter comes back and Kendrick is a Yankee-killer should they meet. As long as the Angels avoid the Red Sox in the Division Series, they should win the AL