Trey's Trey Leads To Rock Choke

This was a game that appeared to be over. Kansas was dominating Michigan. Too many easy buckets inside for Ben McLemore and the rest of the Jayhawks. They were up by 10 with just under three minutes left when Trey Burke carried the Wolverines on his back. It helped that Elijah Johnson started turning the ball over like crazy and gave Michigan a chance when he missed his 1 and 1 with 12.6 seconds left. That set the stage for the best moment and game of March Madness thus far as Burke hit the NBA range three to tie the game and force OT.

We remained in Trey Burke's world as he scored Michigan's first five points in OT (he ended the night with 23 points, after not scoring at all in the first half). Then, Mitch McGary added four of his 25 points to put Michigan up 3. McGary outplayed Jeff Withey tonight as McGary had a 25-14 games, compared to Withey's 12-7 (though Withey didn't miss from the floor, aside from his one free throw). Johnson kept his Jerkyll and Hyde game going with a three and after a shot-clock violation, Johnson had a chance for redemption. Instead he passes up a good look for the tying layup and fires it to Naadir Tharpe, who wasn't ready to attempt a winning three and all he came up with was an awful looking runner. Somehow, Michigan came back from dead to pull this one out and will play in the Elite 8 for the first time since 1994. That's the last time I count out Michigan dead as long as Trey Burke plays there (though he's only playing at most 3 more games there).

South Region Preview

Tomorrow will be the true start of March Madness, so today, there will be looks at all four regions. I figured that once some of the First Four games were played, and a couple of days to think about the bracket would be wise before going ahead with this post. Since there was no play-in games in this region, let's start with the South, looking at grouping the teams based on chances on advancing.

THANKS FOR ATTENDING

Western Kentucky (16) and Northwestern State (14) have no shot of an upset. Thus, we get reminded how we have no idea what the Hilltoppers mascot is and that Northwestern State has made more NCAA appearances than Northwestern, who's in the Big 10.

SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE?

This is the group for Florida Gulf Coast (15), South Dakota State (13) and Akron (12). If everything broke right, an upset can occur. Akron's hurt by a suspension of PG Alex Abreu, which is a killer against VCU. I'm also pretty sure that Georgetown will be on guard for the upset by FGC. The Jackrabbits of SD State are on this list because they gave Baylor a scare last year; unfortunately I think Michigan won't allow another First Round loss (for the purposes of this and any other posts, I will, rightfully, refer to the Second Round as First Round), after the one Ohio gave them a year ago.

MAY AS WELL BE A GAME FROM THE NIT

San Diego State (7) vs. Oklahoma (10). Neither team is beating Georgetown and they are close enough competitively that seed doesn't matter. The rule of thumb is to pick against Steve Fisher-coached teams in the tourney, since they only won a game in the tourney once since 1994, right before Juwan Howard and Jalen Rose went to the NBA. Oklahoma is the pick by default.

ROCK(CHALK), PAPER, SCISSORS

For some reason, I think Villanova (9) has a shot to pull over Kansas. Problem is, North Carolina (8) looks like they will create matchup problems with the Wildcats. Which is too bad, because there's no way that the Tar Heels knock off the Jayhawks.

SHOULDN'T THESE SEEDS BE REVERSED?

UCLA (6) vs. Minnesota (11). I know why Minnesota is an 11-seed, but the Bruins are missing Jordan Adams and the Gophers will be happy to be freed from Big 10 play. They finished the year 5-11 after a 15-1 start. I think playing on neutral courts can get them back to a November-December rhythm. Don't be surprised if Minnesota can make their way to the Sweet 16; they rebound the ball very well.

DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH THESE TEAMS

Kansas (1), Florida (3) and Michigan (4) all will be picked to go to the Final Four in a bunch of brackets. Florida, in fact, has the Nate Silver seal of approval. With the Gators, I really don't like how they have absolutely zero close wins. As for Kansas and Michigan, they seem to be bad matchups for VCU and Shaka Smart's Havoc.

ELITE EIGHT

VCU (5) vs. Georgetown (2). I'm relishing this matchup with Otto Porter and the Hoyas will try to slow down the Rams of VCU who will do all they can to rev up the tempo in this one. In the end, I don't think there's enough for Georgetown to pull through past the Rams.

South Region Winner: VCU

NCAA Tourney Preview

Figured I'd put my entire preview in one post, I'll go through each region, giving you which teams are better than thought, which are worse and picks for the Final Four and Championship. One things for sure, this field is probably as hard as I can remember, only one team I felt any confidence in going to Houston. Maybe that means I'll win big, when if I had all the confidence in my Final Four, I'd probably lose it by Friday. Anyway, here's the regions.

East Region

This is with the West as the toughest region, a little more because of the name schools North Carolina, Syracuse and Kentucky are playing like their reputation, making it harder for number 1 overall Ohio St. Doesn't help that Washington, Xavier, West Virginia and George Mason play here too.

-Potential Cinderella: We have two, Marquette and Washington. The Huskies have Isaiah Thomas, who's capable of starting a long tourney run, while Marquette is one of the better coached teams in the Big Dance.

-Potential Pumpkin: North Carolina. I know they won the ACC and have Harrison Barnes, but they scared me in the ACC Tourney by trailing big in every game. Also, this year seems too soon for a Final Four Tar Heel team.

-Picks: OSU, Kentucky, Syracuse and Washington in Sweet 16. Kentucky and Cuse in Elite 8 and the Wildcats to win region. No one is picking Kentucky and I like how they're playing now. Plus, the early struggles I think will help them at this of year.


West Region

This is the other tough region, talent-wise, the top 4 seeds can each make the Final Four. Kyrie Irving will be back for Duke, Duke haters can only hope he doesn't transition seamlessly back into the flow for the Blue Devils, or you're looking at back-to-back titles.

-Potential Cinderella: This bracket is full of Cinderellas, as Oakland, Temple and Missouri all could outperform their seed; at least are the trending upset picks. Missouri gets that moniker because of Mike Anderson's pressure style, Oakland also plays uptempo and has an NBA-caliber big and Temple plays well in the halfcourt. Other possible Cinderella; Bucknell catching a tired UConn squad.

-Potential Pumpkin: UConn only because they are spent from the Big East Tourney (though it would have to be Kemba Walker who's spent), but Texas is a team I never like in the NCAA's. Rick Barnes is someone you should always pick against in the tournament; hell he couldn't even get the Longhorns to the Sweet 16 when Kevin Durant was playing there.

-Picks: Duke, Arizona, UConn and San Diego State reach Sweet 16 (Zona after beating Oakland in the "third round"). Duke and UConn face in the Elite 8 with Kemba taking the Huskies to the Final Four. Now don't sleep tomorrow against Bucknell.


Southwest Region

This bracket seems like it should go to Kansas. It's not too weak like we'll see in the Southwest, as Notre Dame, Purdue and Louisville are legitimately good. The Jayhawks, of course, will try to right the wrongs of last year's first round exit.

-Potential Cinderella: Richmond is good and can advance far, both VCU and Georgetown can outperform their seed. The Hoyas in particular are a potential Final Four team if Chris Wright is healed from his hand injury. Otherwise, they will be one and done.

-Potential Pumpkin: We outlined Georgetown, but Vanderbilt also stands to be an early loser. They probably are the most nondescript five seed that I can remember.

-Picks: Richmond gets the upset over Vandy, loses to Louisville in the second round (calling it third round before was sarcasm, we'll call the rounds correctly from now on). Louisville is joined by Kansas, ND and Purdue; with a Kansas/Purdue Elite 8 and Kansas heads to Houston.


Southeast Region

A horror show of a region that includes the worst 2 seed, the worst 3 and a 4 who lost their last game 36-33. All signs point to Pitt cleaning up this region, but if you know the history with the Pitt Panthers, you know that you can't make that assumption.

-Potential Cinderella: There are Cinderellas everywhere; Utah St, Belmont and Gonzaga as first round potential upset winners, with St. John's, UCLA and Michigan St as potential surprise Sweet 16's at the very least. Even Old Dominion is getting upset talk, the only 8/9 seed who's I think is getting that talk this year.

-Potential Pumpkin: Also littered, as Florida was overseeded at a 2 (unless you tell my Al Horford is coming back). BYU would have been the potential Final Four team, until they threw Brandon Davies off the team, now it's up to Jimmer to carry the Cougars as far as he can. Meanwhile, both Wisconsin and Kansas State are capable of losing early, the shame is the Wildcats probably could go far like last year, but get a tough draw in Utah State.

-Picks: I have Utah State over Belmont to go to the Sweet 16, joining Pitt, BYU and UCLA. Then the Panthers head to the Final Four with a win over the Bruins.


Final Four

UConn over Kentucky
Kansas over Pitt


Championship

Kansas over UConn

If you're interested in my entire bracket, click here.