Wild Card Sunday

Before getting into Sunday's picks, here's my recap of Saturday's terrible day for me which both my picks lost. The Seahawks are living a charmed life right now, but let's be fair, Stanford would have beat the Saints defense yesterday. They were awful after taking the 10-0 lead. Drew Brees did all he could, but he couldn't play defense and they couldn't stop Seattle when they needed to. It was pretty much punctuated by Marshawn Lynch's epic run which is one of those runs you see on NFL Films when Jim Brown or Earl Campbell make one of their all-time runs. It was physical and overpowering and might be the best playoff run in history. As far as biggest upset, I'll hold off and still go with Jacksonville trotting into Denver and beating Elway and Co. 30-27 in the 1996 Playoffs, in terms of a non-Super Bowl upset (thus Jets, Pats and Giants don't count). We can get into writing off the Seahawks next week and the discussion on whether 7-9 teams should host playoff games can be tabled for the future, but for now, Seattle's on top of the world.

The Seahawks would need to share a spot with Rex Ryan, who finally gets his win over Peyton Manning and his Colts. Of course, he was given this win on a timeout call by Jim Caldwell that was Chris Webber-level bad. The Jets were going to take their chances on a 50 yard field goal. I don't have to remind Jets fans on how Herm Edwards did the exact same thing against the Steelers in the 2004 Playoffs and Doug Brien proceeded to miss the winning field goal. Caldwell gave the Jets a chance to reconsider and Mark Sanchez found Braylon Edwards at the 15, setting up a 32 yard winner for Nick Folk. Sanchez deserves credit for making that throw, because he was awful yesterday. He overthrew receiver after receiver and cost the Jets points at halftime with his interception. The Jets, smartly, ran much of the second half and dominated the line of scrimmage. As for the Colts, Peyton was able to move the ball but couldn't get into the end zone except the long TD to Pierre Garcon. The Jets defense deserves credit for daring Manning to run the ball and Manning obliged for the most part. Still, Manning in a tough game put the Colts in a position to win and maybe they do if the Colts can stop Cromartie's return or if Caldwell lets the Jets take the field goal from 50 yards.

Onto the picks with the first game in Kansas City with the Chiefs hosting the Ravens. I thought the Chiefs had a better than punchers chance to win and the Seahawks winning makes a Chiefs win more possible. The Ravens are capable of beating anyone in the AFC, might be the best team on paper in the AFC. The problem is the Ravens all year when playing a big game seem to come small in a close game.

Ravens will win if: They do exactly what they did to the Dolphins in this playoff game two years ago, and to a lesser extent last year to New England, which is control tempo on the road against an inferior team (I go lesser with the Pats because I didn't find them inferior). The Chiefs running game would have to be stopped and Matt Cassel needs to be blitzed. Flacco just needs to control the offense, not turn the ball over and not panic late.

Chiefs will win if: They can run with Jamaal Charles and the crowd can disrupt the Ravens. Cassel would need to be upright and make a couple of plays. The Chiefs defense would also need to control the line of scrimmage and not allow big days from Flacco or Ray Rice.

My pick: I picked the Chiefs to make the playoffs back in start of the year. I would love to pick them today and I probably would if the game started at 4:30. The Ravens tend to play great on the 1pm Wild Card game. Plus, the only time the Ravens lost in the Wild Card round, the memorable Anthony Wright was the starting QB. So the Ravens (-3.5) will win today 20-10.

Now to the main event of the weekend, the Packers and the Eagles. The Packers soared in the last two games, while the Eagles slumped. Both teams have great QB play, with Aaron Rodgers appearing conventional but can break a run when necessary and Michael Vick ready to run, but more willing to throw in the pocket than in the past. Both teams have great receivers, Eagles are more likely to go deep, Packers can do both intermediate and deep very well. The Packers defense is better (the best one left in the NFC), while the Eagles run the ball better. Something's gotta give.

Packers will win if: They can blitz Vick for the full game and make him uncomfortable. This is a huge game for Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and the Packers defense. They have to stop LeSean McCoy and not let Vick find DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin deep. Offensively, Rodgers needs to thrive against an average Eagles defense, but at the very least to avoid killer interceptions.

Eagles will win if: Vick can run wild and Jackson makes two or three big plays. Also, if Rodgers can turn the ball over (likely meaning a big day for Asante Samuel) and can't throw in the wind today, the Eagles should win. McCoy running for over 100 yards would help as well.

My pick: Forget about the collapse, the Giants showed everyone how to contain Michael Vick, with a strong pass rush and avoid leaving contain. The Bears, Cowboys and Vikings all did the same. The Packers have the athletes to do the same, forget the first matchup as the Packers didn't gameplan Vick. Rodgers will make enough plays and I find a lower scoring game than most people think. Packers win 27-20.

Who Dat

Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints, who won the Super Bowl tonight over the Colts 31-17. This wasn't an easy win and honestly, it was pretty unexpected, especially after watching the first quarter and the Colts utterly dominate the Saints defense. The Saints looked tense and seemed like the moment was too big for them. So what happened, why did the Saints win and the Colts lose? Here are each of the key plays that made this game a Mardi Gras celebration in Miami.

1. In the Colts third drive, following the Saints field goal making it 10-3, Peyton Manning found Pierre Garcon open on a third down conversion, except Garcon dropped the ball and the Colts had to punt and wouldn't see the ball against until after the two minute warning.

2. The Saints had to go for it on fourth down inside the five because all a field goal there would have done was cut the lead to 10-6 and Manning would of had the ball closer to the 30. After the Saints failed to score, we all assumed the Colts would move the ball, at least for one first down. Instead, they call three running plays and the Saints get the ball right back and kick the field goal to end the half. In hindsight, missing the TD at the 1 was better than scoring one because if you give the Colts more field position, they probably score themselves. It was the best way to neutralize the Colts offense. I don't know who's responsible for the conservative gameplan on that series, but it was the first chink in the Colts armor.

3. Which leads to the second half and probably the perfect moment for a surprise onside kick. The Colts showed us after what would happen if they kickoff normal; they drive right down the field and score. Thus, Sean Payton was right to go for the onside kick, since 40 yards or 80 yards wouldn't have made the difference; though it's not an obvious move at all. Of course, if Hank Baskett holds onto the football, the Colts win. This onside kick was the difference between down 17-6 and 17-13 and the game is very different if it's the former.

4. The first moment that the Colts were in real doubt was the missed field goal. It's been said ad nauseum that Matt Stover doesn't have the range for a 50-yard kick, yet Jim Caldwell calls for a 51-yarder in order to chase three points. This drive was lost on third down on what I thought was the biggest mistake of the game by Manning, throwing for Collie, when Jonathan Vilma had him covered, while blanketed by two others. After dink and dunking the entire drive, including a 3rd and long which Manning setup a short 4th down conversion, he gets too greedy and forces Caldwell's hand. The play should have been the punt on 4th down, though if they went for it, I'd understand since the Saints offense was flawless. By kicking the field goal, they went safe and in the words of John Tortorella, "safe is death".

5. Finally, we come to the interception. After the Saints took the lead, the Colts drove down easily. Then on third down, Manning threw the pass that Tracy Porter read perfectly and took it to the house. I believe that Reggie Wayne was slow in his route and if he runs the route correct and quick, it's just a broken pass and it's fourth down. The shame is that one pass will be the legacy of this game for Peyton Manning, particularly those who think they know football, but have no clue (as well as the Manning-haters). Manning played a great game, though obviously outplayed by Brees.

Final thoughts:

-I watched Loud Mouths on SNY and Chris Carlin made the case that Brees had a better Super Bowl than Phil Simms. Thinking about it, I have to agree, since he needed to have a 32 for 39 game for 288 yards. Simms didn't have to have his 22 for 25 to win against the Broncos, it was just icing on the cake. Plus, Simms didn't need to lead a fourth quarter drive to beat Denver; Brees did last night. With this Super Bowl, Brees joins Brady and Manning in that top tier of quarterbacks, though he's still third behind them, assuming Brady isn't hurt next season. Also, now the Hall of Fame is a possibility.

-Somewhere inside, deep, DEEP down, I glad Jeremy Shockey caught the game-winning touchdown. You know what, no I don't, if I was saying this, I couldn't finish that sentence. I'm just glad Shockey didn't overcelebrate the touchdown or I would of probably threw the remote at the TV.

-I'd actually comment on the halftime show, except I didn't watch it. But I tweeted this at the time, why isn't there any network scheduling programming for halftime of the Super Bowl? I remember when WWF Sunday Night Heat had The Rock/Mankind WWF Title match in an empty arena and that was when they actually brought artists who I want to see perform. I wrote earlier that much of the recent musical acts have been stale, I don't count Prince and Springsteen, but we definitely need better acts at halftime, at least someone who was big in the 90s (Pearl Jam could be fine here, before they are too old as well).

-Coaching was the difference for the Saints as Sean Payton and Gregg Williams executed their gameplans. Payton took what the Colts gave and was rewarded for his guts, sorta like how Bill Parcells was in his first Super Bowl. I must say though, Payton's performance was like Bill Cowher's first Super Bowl with the surprise onside and fourth down call. Unfortunately for Cowher, he wasn't rewarded because he had Neil O'Donnell throwing into one particular white jersey with a star on the helmet all night. As for Williams, he sucked the Colts offense into the false sense of security and in the end was disrupting patterns by Manning and his receivers.

-The two villians I have to say for the Colts, Jim Caldwell and Reggie Wayne; they contributed to this defeat more than Manning did. Wayne was pretty awful, including the drop at the end of the game. The pleasant surprise, Joseph Addai, who ran well, before the Colts abandoned it in the fourth quarter. Just don't pick him for fantasy based on this game.

-This Super Bowl was very much like Super Bowl XXXII, when you have the Broncos-Packers who were arguably the two best in the NFL that season (with respect to the Chiefs and Niners), Elway vs. Favre who was just like Manning vs. Brees and almost the identical score, which each losing QB has a play they want back (in Favre's case, that final drive). Also, the Manning-Favre comparisons continue as they are both 1-1 in Super Bowls and threw the INT's that led to the Saints championship win.

-I want to see how Manning responds to this loss. His legacy isn't ruined because of this, but he can kiss Montana-status goodbye and that might have not been fair to compare him to Joe Cool. I don't think we've answered the Brady-Manning question yet and I still think his regular season numbers and performances can't just be dismissed. If the Colts are back in the playoffs again, it's because of Manning and perhaps that young defense and WR's grow up a little more and return to the Super Bowl. However, if this turns out to be the turning point of his career, we will adjust his legacy as such. Makes 2010 very interesting, other than the fact it could be the last season in a while.

-Finally, I wanted to mention the people of New Orleans who have adopted this team like no one since the old Browns and Colts in Baltimore after the devastation of Katrina. I can't help but think of Haiti because they like New Orleans had such a devastating event and maybe someday, they can find a rallying cry to hop on. It feels right that this team from this city won the Super Bowl. Those people deserve it. It's not a validation of the city being back from the hurricane, that hopefully can come after they host the Super Bowl in three years. It says that this city is past the worst and good things can come soon. Now if only I can party down there with them through Mardi Gras.