Week 17 Picks

The final day of the NFL season is here. This tends to be a sad time whenever this day arrives, though the playoffs bring more joy (and heartbreak when you're a fan of the 11 teams who end up losing). We go into the final Sunday of the season with the AFC playoff field all set in terms of who's playing, with some haggling over seeding, while the NFC still has a mess to clean up. Here's a quick look at the scenarios going into today.

The Texans clinch home field advantage with a win. That's all they need to do. If they lose, the door opens for both the Patriots and the Broncos to take home-field away. The Broncos will get a bye with a win, while the Pats need a Broncos loss (along with a win). The Ravens can pass the Patriots if they win and the Pats lose, which the only result is that the Ravens will face the Bengals again and a second Pats-Colts showdown will occur. Colts and Bengals are locked in.

All we are guaranteed right now if the Falcons have home-field throughout. The biggest game in terms of the entire NFC playoff picture will be the Packers-Vikings. Green Bay clinches a first round bye with a win and opens the playoff door for the Giants and Bears (while giving the Redskins a backdoor possibility). A Vikings win puts them in the playoffs and allows the 49ers and Seahawks an opportunity to get a bye. 49ers win clinches the NFC West, Seattle wins it if they win and the Niners lose. If the Bears or Vikings win, the Giants are eliminated, while it makes the Cowboys-Redskins game a de facto playoff game. If neither win, the Redskins make it regardless of their result against Dallas, while the Giants would need a Washington win to make it (along with their own win today that they need).

Are we all caught up? Great, here's my final list of weekly picks (yes, picks will continue into the playoffs).

ATLANTA (-3) over Tampa Bay

I'm not picking the Falcons based on them playing their best lineup, that's for sure. I'm just sure that the Bucs have quit this season and don't see them coming through with a win today.

Jets (+3.5) over BUFFALO

We know all about the year the Jets have had. Lord knows we are fully aware of the Jets season. I must thank them for deflecting all the attention away as the Giants have squandered away an easy playoff berth. However, the Bills have been more of a failure since they had actual playoff aspirations and now the Chan Gailey Era will come to an end.

Baltimore (+3) over CINCINNATI

I'm only taking the Ravens because they might play like they have something to play for (I'd rather face the Bengals again than the Colts), while Cincy may as well rest their starters and possibly play just a bland offense.

INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5) over Houston

With head coach Chuck Pagano returning today after his battle with leukemia, I expect the best effort out of the Colts, who have ridden the wave of ChuckStrong to the playoffs. If this was a team like New England, I wouldn't expect a storybook ending. With the Texans, they are the perfect team.

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Carolina

This was a good try, Joe Vitt. I'm impressed the Saints are at 7-8 after starting the year 0-4. However, they already won when Sean Payton signed a contract extension to be the Saints head coach.

PITTSBURGH (-10) over Cleveland

Expect the Steelers to take out their frustrations for not making the playoffs out on the Browns. Looks like Pat Shurmur will be cast aside as well, but it does seem like the Browns are trending upward.

Jacksonville (+5) over TENNESSEE

Battle of two teams who appear to have whiffed on their QB choice back in the 2010 draft. We know this is true with Jacksonville and they are playing Chad Henne now because of this. The Titans are still seeing if Jake Locker is capable, but it's more likely to be false.

Oakland (+8.5) over SAN DIEGO

The last game of the Norv Turner Era (as well as the Norv Turner Death March) will end with a whimper. Rough year for the Raiders, but this was predetermined when they made the trade for Carson Palmer last year. Biggest question for the Chargers: Can Philip Rivers be saved?

GIANTS (-6.5) over Philadelphia

We've seen the Eagles go down this path of awfulness to finish out Andy Reid's tenure, but do they have enough to win against the Giants. Personally, I really hope the Giants get eliminated from the playoffs because they lost this game. Really hope to see the best of the Giants today.

DETROIT (+3) over Chicago

The Bears have the same opportunity as the Giants, with the same "win and a" quality to the day. I know the Lions tend to blow leads, but I don't see Chicago slowing them down like they did back in October. 9-7 year after a 7-1 start and Lovie Smith can start sweating.

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Miami

I know the Dolphins can get to .500 with a win, but the Pats will blow out Miami because anytime New England plays a close one as the first game vs an AFC East opponent, they dominate in the second meeting. They won by 7 in Miami, they'll win by a lot more than that now.

Kansas City (+16.5) over DENVER

This isn't a pick against the Broncos, but I think this points spread is way too high and the Chiefs defense is good enough to keep the margin closer (close means a couple TD's). Still, the Broncos will win and get the bye for Peyton Manning and co.

SEATTLE (-12) over St Louis

Good year for the Rams, but the Seahawks are the hottest team in football. Even if the 49ers win, I don't expect the Seahawks to give away this game at home.

SAN FRANCISCO (-16.5) over Arizona

Unlike Denver, I do think the 49ers are blowing out the Cardinals to clinch this division. The Cardinals don't just lose games to good teams, they get annihilated. Prediction: Aldon Smith breaks Michael Strahan's sacks record against the team who's given up the most sacks in the NFL.

MINNESOTA (+3) over Green Bay

I'd like to say that Adrian Peterson will break the all-time rushing record, but he will fall just short. I guess he'll have to take the consolation prize of making the playoffs and winning NFL MVP instead. I also happen to think the Packers playing in Round 1 will help them in the playoffs (which by the way, will be against these same Vikings, but in Lambeau).

WASHINGTON (-3) over Dallas

Sorry, Cowboys. I just don't believe you can win big games. Yes, it's not hard to pick the Redskins offense with RGIII under center. Yet, it's their improved defense that has me leaning toward the Skins. This leads to Seattle-Washington in the wild card round. The two hottest teams in the NFC will be gone in a week. Which proves how much you have to be hot to make a playoff run.

Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 122-110-6

Week 16 Picks

With Week 16 beginning on a Saturday, I'm writing this weeks picks a day early. Two games left in the season and many playoff scenarios that are creeping closer to being decided. Here's my picks for the weekend.

Atlanta (-3.5) over DETROIT- Can't see the Falcons wasting away this game and put their likely home-field chance on the line in Week 17.

Oakland (+8.5) over CAROLINA- Battle of my fantasy QB's. In a related story, I missed the playoffs this year in that league.

New Orleans (+3) over DALLAS- Yeah, I have the Cowboys sticking it to their fans at home and a week earlier than they did last year.

GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Tennessee- Plenty for the Packers to play for, don't see the Titans coming close to win, especially if they play like they did in their win last Monday.

Minnesota (+8) over HOUSTON- Yes, Adrian Peterson is the sole reason I'm picking the Vikings.

New England (-14.5) over JACKSONVILLE- This is going to be a bloodbath.

Indianapolis (-7) over KANSAS CITY- Win here, and the Colts clinch and likely avoid a second trip to New England in the wild card round. I think that's important.

MIAMI (-4.5) over Buffalo- The Dolphins begin play with faint playoff hopes. Expect them to not be the ones who dash them, at least not against the Bills.

Washington (-6.5) over PHILADELPHIA- Honestly, I'd have more faith in the Eagles pulling an upset if they were on the road. As a Giants fan, I hope the last win in the Andy Reid Era comes tomorrow. If not, then I hope it happened already.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Cincinnati- No, I don't think the Bengals man up and win their way to the playoffs. Steelers continue their smoke and mirrors act for another week.

St. Louis (+3) over TAMPA BAY- This is the "What Could've Been" Bowl since this could have been a huge game for NFC purposes. At least the Rams aren't self-destructing, so I'll take the points.

San Diego (+2.5) over JETS- I really don't want to discuss about either team. Let's move on.

Cleveland (+13) over DENVER- I'm probably being a little cute picking the Browns, but perhaps the Broncos win a closer game than expected as they prepare for the playoffs. Plus, the Browns aren't all bad.

Chicago (-5.5) over ARIZONA- The cushiest schedule left for any playoff contender (who needs to win both games) begins for the Bears. No excuse if they lose tomorrow.

BALTIMORE (+2.5) over Giants- Figure the Ravens to get over their losing ways tomorrow. Just don't see the Giants winning down there. Always feel a little worried playing them.

San Francisco (Pick) over SEATTLE- If anyone's capable of winning in Seattle, it's the 49ers. Can't see the same success for Russell Wilson against Aldon Smith and Co, forcing the Seahawks to win the following week to clinch.

Last week: 7-8
Season: 112-105-5

Week 15 Picks

First things first, I want to commend the NFL for allowing the Jets, Giants and Pats to pay tribute to the victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre by allowing all types of decals on their helmets. The league has many times been all too willingly to be super strict on what goes on an NFL uniform and for once, the league isn't on the wrong side of an issue. We also see once again how great a person Victor Cruz is after reading this story about Jack Pinto.

We finally reached Week 15, a week filled with compelling matchups that will determine playoff seeding (Broncos-Ravens, Pats-49ers), division titles (Texans-Colts, Packers-Bears), and season survival (Steelers-Cowboys, Rams-Vikings). Some of the playoff picture will clear up, at least involving those well on the outside. Some losses today will be felt by teams in a couple weeks, even if today doesn't knock them out. Here's my picks.

Cincinnati (-4.5) over PHILADELPHIA- I didn't make any kind of pick on this one, so I'm not taking any credit or blame for the Bengals loss. So glad to be finished with Thursday Night games.

Giants (+1) over ATLANTA- Road game for the Giants with equals a statement game which equals a must-win for the team. I'm more worried about Philly in Week 17 than the Falcons today. Question is if  Atlanta can avoid what happened to the Texans (though not necessarily 42-14 type happening).

BALTIMORE (-3) over Denver- Terrell Suggs is back for the Ravens this week. I think this is enough to get over with a win today. Besides, the Broncos would be staring down 11 wins in a row to finish the regular season (and maybe still not getting a bye) if they win.

Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO- The Packers can clinch the division today with a win at Soldier Field. It's been a rough go for the Bears lately and this week isn't easier. The Bears should lose and suddenly open up the NFC Wild Card for all the 7-6 teams.

CLEVELAND (-3) over Washington- If RGIII was playing, I'd pick the Redskins. It's not that I don't think Kirk Cousins can help Washington win, it's that the Browns are playing some good football now and it would be difficult to beat them without your best player.

Indianapolis (+10) over HOUSTON- No way should the Texans be favored by double digits over anyone (well, the Cardinals), but especially not a 9-4 Colts team. If there's a better CHUCKSTRONG game, this is it as the AFC South is there for the taking.

Jacksonville (+7.5) over MIAMI- This is Chad Henne's revenge game! Alright, that's enough laughing. Henne at least puts the Jags in a position to win games, unlike Blaine Gabbert. The half point here is too enticing.

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Tampa Bay- The Saints officially eliminate the Bucs today as Drew Brees will tear apart that defense. Expect plenty of scoring as Doug Martin gets to run against the Saints.

Minnesota (+2.5) over ST LOUIS- The Rams have been a nice story this year and Jeff Fisher has to be commended for turning the team around despite a weak offense. Adrian Peterson has been one of the top 3 stories of this season. He has a great chance for 2,000 yards and can carry the Vikings to the playoffs without a real QB. It won't be the Rams standing in the way of that.

Detroit (-6.5) over ARIZONA- It's nice to know that you are playing a team who isn't capable of rallying from a 14 point deficit. Which means all the Lions have to do is score like they have all year and not give points away and victory is a synch.

Seattle (-4.5) over Buffalo (in Toronto)- I know the Bills count these as home games, but this isn't a real home game. Fact is the Seahawks are better and should easily win. Bills get to start looking out for 2013.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over Carolina- Figure the Chargers continue their typical good play in December and hope the Steelers lose again, then beat the Bengals...oh who am I kidding. It's over for Norv. The death march continues, win or lose.

Kansas City (+4) over OAKLAND- Both teams have given up, but something tells me the Chiefs would be more motivated than the Raiders. Just stay away, but if you must, take the points and don't even watch this.

DALLAS (-1) over Pittsburgh- I might be making my most foolish pick ever, but somehow, I think the Cowboys get the win today. There's just something I don't like about the Steelers. Also, when in doubt, go with NFC > AFC.

San Francisco (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND- Potential Super Bowl preview in Foxboro. Except at home against the Giants, the 49ers have come to play in their statement games. No better statement than to win in New England after the Pats put up 42 on a respected Texans defense (at least was respected).

TENNESSEE (-1.5) over Jets- The dream for the Jets dies in Nashville and that would be the best thing to happen for the team. They can begin a process to change the culture there or at least get rid of Mike Tannenbaum and get a better GM.

Last week: 5-11
Season: 105-97-5

Week 14 Picks

This week's slate of games is more appetizer than the entree which is next week. Next week has Giants-Falcons, Packers-Bears, Steelers-Cowboys, Broncos-Ravens and 49ers-Patriots, among others. That doesn't mean this week doesn't have big games, but none as huge as next week. Even still, there are plenty of intriguing matchups that should clear up a little more of the playoff picture.

Denver (-10) over OAKLAND- Happened Thursday night, but because I was at work and getting teased by the NHL, I didn't write a picks post. Tweeted this about the game. Nice to finally get a Thursday game spot on.

BUFFALO (-3) over St. Louis- After the great win against the 49ers, I see a letdown for the Rams, just as they did against the Jets after the tie with San Francisco. Bills fans only have to look back on the losses to Tennessee and the 2nd Pats game as to why they are barely still alive instead of in the heart of the playoff race.

Atlanta (-3) over CAROLINA- Why would the Falcons stop winning close games now? I also happen to think that Atlanta will win by a couple of scores just to screw with everyone who's been annoyed by their ability to barely be 11-1.

CINCINNATI (-3) over Dallas- Another awful tragedy in the NFL, this time with the stupidity of drinking and driving. No excuse for that to happen.

Kansas City (+7) over CLEVELAND- I know the Browns are playing better football and the Chiefs are the worst team in the league, but Cleveland should never be favored by seven over anyone.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Tennessee- Case and point, the Colts are giving less than the Browns at home, even though they look playoff bound. Huge day for Andrew Luck against the porous Titans defense.

Jets (-3) over JACKSONVILLE- This is the perfect spot to save Mark Sanchez's Jets career. The Jags are still with Maurice Jones-Drew and have Cecil Shorts and Rashad Jennings out. Meanwhile, they are 28th and 31st in pass defense and run defense, respectively. And the Sanchize is on the road! If he can't play well here, he never will. Note: Tim Tebow is active and Greg McElroy isn't. Complete zoo with the Jets.

MINNESOTA (+3) over Chicago- Everyone's looking ahead to Packers-Bears for the NFC North title next week, but a trip to the dome puts the Vikings back in the race. Big day for Adrian Peterson and rough day for Jay Cutler is ahead.

PITTSBURGH (-8) over San Diego- 10am PST start for the Chargers, plus it's the Norv Turner Death March, plus Ben Roethlisberger is back. And the Steelers defense is getting healthier, as while LaMarr Woodley and Ike Taylor are out, Troy Polamalu has returned and James Harrison is starting to play like his normal self.

TAMPA BAY (-7) over Philadelphia- Unless the Eagles return another punt for a TD to get a late cover, I'm pretty sure the Bucs will have their way with them. Doug Martin must be licking his chops to take on this defense.

WASHINGTON (-2) over Baltimore- No Terrell Suggs for the Ravens and it's too difficult to stop the Redskins and Robert Griffin III without your full defensive team at the ready. Doesn't help that Washington is slowly improving on the defensive end themselves.

SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5) over Miami- After the letdown of last week and the potential of the Seahawks stealing the division right out from under them, expect Ryan Tannehill to feel the pain of the 49ers defense. If they score 10 points, I'd be surprised.

New Orleans (+4.5) over GIANTS- Last chance for the Saints, while the Giants will probably delude themselves into thinking that they can still salvage things if they lose today. Unless Drew Brees continues his run of INT's from the last two weeks, they should torch a weak Giants secondary.

SEATTLE (-9.5) over Arizona- This spread can't be high enough. John Skelton is back in as starter for the Cards. The good news; it avoids the laughter of Ryan Lindley starting in Seattle. The bad news; the comedy of Skelton is just as funny.

Detroit (+6.5) over GREEN BAY- No, I don't think the Lions are winning. I just think the Packers will hand them another cruel loss instead of blowing them out. A few plays here and there are the difference between a really good year for the Lions and this awful 4-8 season. As a matter of fact, they're the anti-Falcons.

Houston (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND- Biggest game of the weekend and of the AFC season. Houston basically clinches home-field with the win (Denver's win prevents an official clinching). Something is different about this Texans team. They come to play in tough situations that previously they'd fold. Going to Foxboro is as tough as it comes in this league and rare I go against Belichick and Brady at home. But they've been a little too good lately and the Texans are capable of going up there and winning, if not for nothing, to avoid going back there in January.

Last week: 9-6-1
This week: 1-0
Season: 101-86-5

Week 13 Picks

It's been awhile since I worked on a Sunday, so I'm going to have to make my NFL picks quickly. Here they are:

Jacksonville (+6) over BUFFALO
CHICAGO (-3) over Seattle
Indianapolis (+6.5) over DETROIT
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Minnesota
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over Carolina- Because of yesterday's tragedy involving the team, I'm not picking this game like normal. I'm rooting for the Chiefs to win today.
MIAMI (+7) over New England
JETS (-5.5) over Arizona
ST. LOUIS (+7.5) over San Francisco
Houston (-6.5) over TENNESSEE
Tampa Bay (+7.5) over DENVER
Pittsburgh (+7.5) over BALTIMORE
OAKLAND (+2) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (-1) over SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia (+10.5) over DALLAS
WASHINGTON (+3) over Giants

Last week: 10-6
This week: 0-1
Season: 91-81-4

Week 12 Picks

This year's Thanksgiving games basically had the good (RGIII's great day in Dallas), the bad (how the Lions gave up their game with the Texans) and the ugly (anything the Jets did that night). Now that we've finished our turkey and what not, there's some more NFL to digest today, including some monster matchups.

Minnesota (+6) over CHICAGO

I know Jay Cutler is playing today, but who knows how he'll play coming off that concussion. Let's just hope that we don't see much Christian Ponder in this one.

CINCINNATI (-8) over Oakland

Raiders playing at 10 AM PST start is never a good thing, plus they still are without Darren McFadden (probably won't play again this year, based on his history). Only worry is that this would precisely be the game that the Bengals would lose.

CLEVELAND (+2) over Pittsburgh

If there's ever a chance for the Browns to beat the Steelers, it's today. Charlie Batch is starting. No Antonio Brown again for Pittsburgh as well.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over Buffalo

It's tough to go into New England for the first time ever and win as a rookie. It's also tough for the Bills to win back-to-back games in the second half to inspire hope for your fanbase.

JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) over Tennessee

Might the Jaguars not be as bad as their record indicates? Yes, they were blown out by the Colts a couple weeks ago, but with Chad Henne at QB, the Jags are somewhat competent. And shouldn't a somewhat competent team be able to win against the Titans? I say yes.

KANSAS CITY (+10) over Denver

I was probably going to pick the Broncos, but then I read this article this morning. Manning has trouble with Crennel, plus no Willis McGahee equals take the points.

MIAMI (+3) over Seattle

I know the Dolphins have floundered a bit lately and the Seahawks are coming off a bye, yet I don't like them in the longest road trip of the season. Add the 10AM PST start time and the Dolphins win a close one.

TAMPA BAY (+1.5) over Atlanta

Last year, I had a bet on the Bucs winning the NFC. I probably should have done the same this year. At least it's a better chance this time around (on second thought, Greg Schiano-coached teams find ways to lose at the worst moments, so no). Still will win today.

Baltimore (Pick'em) over SAN DIEGO

I'm convinced this is the Norv Turner death march. Too many teams have coaches in death march mode right now, and this will hit San Diego like the Arab Spring.

St. Louis (+1.5) over ARIZONA

If only the Cardinals had a QB (even Kevin Kolb would suffice), they would be a playoff team. Good defense, good special teams, two great players (Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson). Have to take the Rams here.

NEW ORLEANS (+1.5) over San Francisco

Probably the game that will dictate whether or not the Saints can complete this comeback of a season to make the playoffs. Helps that they have the Niners at home in the dome.

Green Bay (+3) over GIANTS

I'm not sure why the Giants seem to have a lot of people on them today. Aaron Rodgers will feast off their defense and the Giants normally play weaker at home. Very pessimistic about this one.

Carolina (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

This is the Death March Bowl. We know both Andy Reid and Ron Rivera are through after this year. Looks like a good night to return to watching wrestling.

This week: 0-3
Season: 81-77-4

Week 11 Picks

We've reached the final week where fantasy owners have to worry about bye weeks (also couldn't come at a better time for the Giants). For those who are playing, the playoff picture will continue to clear up and become more convoluted at the same time.

Miami (+2.5) over BUFFALO

I got this game wrong but never posted a piece previewing the game Thursday. Let's just say that the Bills get to stay in the fringe of the AFC playoff race, and dragged the Dolphins with them.

Arizona (+9.5) over ATLANTA

Something about playing at home makes for close games for the Falcons. Plus, this game has great late-cover potential by the Cards. Have to grab the points.

Tampa Bay (-1) over CAROLINA

Yes, the Panthers aren't awful and have played a lot of close games, but the Bucs have done the same and have figured out how to win games in the last few weeks. Their offense is outstanding with Doug Martin (who in my eyes is the Offensive Rookie of the Year at this point) and Vincent Jackson has helped make the passing game more dangerous.

DALLAS (-8) over Cleveland

November is generally the Cowboys time of year where they play their best. I can't see a team coached by Pat Shurmur challenge them.

Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT

This is probably the season for the Lions. It's too bad that they must face Aaron Rodgers and Co today. Rodgers has had the Packers on a mission since the loss in Indianapolis. Lions only chance to win is to hope the bye week cooled off the team.

Jacksonville (+14.5) over HOUSTON

The Texans will win, but they could be looking ahead to the Lions on Thanksgiving. Plus, the Jaguars play better on the road than at home.

Cincinnati (+3) over KANSAS CITY

Oh Chiefs, that was as good a chance as they were going to have for a win last week (plus it would have made the AFC playoff race completely wide open). Bengals just gave the Giants a whooping last week, if they want back in the playoffs, they can't take a step back here today.

ST LOUIS (-3.5) over Jets

Steven Jackson came off his best game of the season in that awful tie. Meanwhile, what hasn't been said about the Jets this week. If the Jets had a better team, I could buy into them coming together and winning this one. Too bad they aren't.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Philadelphia

Too many people started getting down on RGIII for their losing streak (unfair, I might add). A bye week probably does them good, and getting the Eagles, who seem to be playing out the string and with a QB who's more likely to get teed off because of that offensive line, also helps.

OAKLAND (+5.5) over New Orleans

This one will be close; the Saints aren't in the dome and the Raiders are a better home team. Carson Palmer should play well (likely will commit some turnover to lose it in the end though).

Indianapolis (+9.5) over NEW ENGLAND

I have no idea how to pick Pats games. Their defense is so easy to throw against and Andrew Luck has been hot. One thing you can be sure of: bet the over. This will be a shootout.

San Diego (+7.5) over DENVER

Are the Broncos really going to finish this year 13-3, winning their last 11 in a row? My instinct says no. This is more about the Chargers looking to show if they have anything left for Norv Turner.

Baltimore (-3) over PITTSBURGH

The Ravens have reasserted themselves as they adjusted to life without Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb. The Steelers probably could do the same without Ben Roethlisberger, but it won't happen the first week he's out.

Chicago (+4.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Now this is a classic MNF matchup! Defense and lots of it is the order. With Jay Cutler out and Alex Smith likely shelved as well, you will see some ugly QB play by Jason Campbell and Colin Kaepernick. Taking the points here mainly because I expect a touchdown by the Bears defense more so than the Niners.

Last week: 7-7
This week: 0-1
Season: 74-69-3

Week 10 Picks

We're going right to picks, here they are for Week 10:

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Oakland
CAROLINA (+3.5) over Denver
Giants (-4.5) over CINCINNATI
MIAMI (-7) over Tennessee
MINNESOTA (+3) over Detroit
Buffalo (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND
Atlanta (-1.5) over NEW ORLEANS
TAMPA BAY (-3) over San Diego
SEATTLE (-5.5) over Jets
Dallas (+1.5) over PHILADELPHIA
SAN FRANCISCO (-13) over St. Louis
Houston (+1.5) over CHICAGO
PITTSBURGH (-12.5) over Kansas City

Last week: 8-6
This week: 0-1
Season: 67-62-3

Week 9 Picks

There's been a lack of writing on this site, aside from Travis' soccer posts this week. The reason for this is that my apartment was flooded because of Hurricane Sandy and I've had to focus on fixing things here. It cost me writing a Thursday Night pick, but I'd rather not talk about my picking the Chiefs to cover.

Anyway, we've reached Week 9 in the NFL season, the true midpoint as we begin to start the stretch run for the playoffs. Here are some facts about this season before I begin to make my picks for the week:

1. NFC is start markedly better than the AFC. Right now, the AFC has Houston, New England, Denver and a whole lot of nothing. Baltimore's too hurt to be a real threat, Pittsburgh's only just getting out of being hurt (the AFC's lone sleeper I'd say) and then you have a bunch of mediocre teams as best punctuated by the Miami-Indianapolis game being a playoff battle.

2. If a defensive player is ever going to win MVP, this is the best chance. I'm referring to J.J. Watt, the best player on the Texans, who will likely end up with the best record in the AFC. Watt leads the league in sacks thus far with 9.5 and Houston has the second best defense in the league. Also, no QB is really grabbing the award unless the Falcons remain unbeaten (meaning Matt Ryan would win by default) or the Redskins make the playoffs (ROTY and MVP for RGIII!).

3. Fortunately, the decision by the replacement refs in the Seattle-Green Bay game won't end up costing the Packers the playoffs. It might be a question of seeding for Green Bay, but just remember, they won the Super Bowl as a sixth seed in 2010, then lost in the first round as a 1. I, for one, am glad the Packers turned their year around to avoid the replacement refs making an impact against a team. Now, the Seahawks might still make the playoffs, but I'm not quite sure that'll be because of the replacements. Only time will tell.

Without further adieu, here are the picks.

Denver (-3.5) over CINCINNATI

Everything is breaking right for the Broncos, being blessed by the schedule gods. The first blessing is a trip to Cincinnati, where the Bengals are falling apart. I know the AFC is weak, but if the Bengals have any chance to make the playoffs, these two home games against the Mannings will need at least a split.

Baltimore (-3.5) over CLEVELAND

This will be the game that determined how much the injuries the Ravens have dealt with will impact their season. It's one thing to lose to the Texans a week after losing Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb; it's another to lose to the Browns coming off a bye and more time to adjust. Let's not act like the Browns played well last week, the Ravens better come to play.

GREEN BAY (-10) over Arizona

They can't make this line high enough. The Cardinals are in free fall, looked awful against Alex Smith and the Niners at home on Monday night, and now have to go to Green Bay on a short week and have Aaron Rodgers pick them apart. Who knew that Kevin Kolb was that important to this team.

HOUSTON (-10) over Buffalo

I'm a little more worried about a late cover by the Bills, since they aren't completely inept offensively. Yet, the Texans home wins were by 20, 24 and 30 points. Two of those win are against possible playoff teams (Miami and Baltimore). Yes, the Packers beat them at home, but the Bills aren't the Packers and Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Aaron Rodgers.

INDIANAPOLIS (+2) over Miami

This is truly a pick'em. I love how Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III have had all the attention, yet the third rookie QB in the top 10 Ryan Tannehill might go the furthest this year. Even a better chance of that happening if the Dolphins win. Unfortunately, the Colts are better at home and while I know the Dolphins will run well today, they don't score enough and I'd rather not play close games with the Colts.

JACKSONVILLE (+5.5) over Detroit

Calvin Johnson is hurt, and might only play on third downs today. I know that the Lions are in a must-win mode, but I'm not confident they can do so. Meanwhile, the Jags have been spirited in the last couple weeks on the road, losing in OT to the Raiders and even having the Packers worry for a second. I think they surprise today.

TENNESSEE (+3.5) over Chicago

Even since Matt Hasselbeck became the starter again for the Titans, they are finally a functioning football team. Chris Johnson has also began to run better. Yes, the Bears defense will give them trouble, but the Bears offense is struggling right now and I figure they loss they avoided last week only delayed the inevitable. Better for a bad loss to come here against an AFC team.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Carolina

Yes, RGIII over Cam. More importantly a Redskins win makes for very good news for President Obama.  If you don't know why, read this story. This is among my favorite random stats in all of sports (side note: any politics talk on the comments will be deleted; oh wait, I forgot, no one comments on my blog).

OAKLAND (-1.5) over Tampa Bay

I don't think the Bucs win over the Vikings made them a good team. Meanwhile, the Raiders lately have been a good football team. It doesn't hurt that this is the best Carson Palmer has looked in about six years.

SEATTLE (-4) over Minnesota

Reality can be brutal, especially if you're a Vikings fan. After the great start, a terrible home loss to the Bucs now has the team staring at a difficult second half schedule, starting today in Seattle, where the Seahawks never lose. Seahawks don't really have wiggle room from their road games, so they must win out at home to make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh (+3) over GIANTS

If this game was in Pittsburgh, I'd take the Giants. While the Giants were able to build a nice NFC East lead, the Steelers have been battling all year to get to 4-3. November isn't the kindest of months for the Giants, and I think Big Ben gets revenge on Eli from 2008.

Dallas (+3.5) over ATLANTA

I'd like to think that last week's loss to the Giants was the last we'll hear from Dallas this year, but I think there's too much talent on both sides of the ball for this to be true. Also, the Falcons are going to drop a game; they aren't this good to be able to stay unbeaten.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Philadelphia

Unlike Dallas, Philly seems like they are playing out the string and ready for a new era. This might be a shootout, but in New Orleans on primetime, I'll always take Drew Brees over anyone.

Last week: 7-7
This week: 0-1
Season: 59-56-3

Week 8 Picks

There's a chance this could be the last post on The Cycle for a few days, depending on how Hurricane Sandy progresses here in NY or Virginia for Travis. In the mean time, here are my picks for Week 8.

CHICAGO (-7.5) over Carolina
CLEVELAND (+3) over San Diego
Seattle (+2.5) over DETROIT
GREEN BAY (-14.5) over Jacksonville
Miami (+2) over JETS
Atlanta (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
Washington (+4) over PITTSBURGH
New England (-7) over St. Louis- Game in London
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Indianapolis
Oakland (+1) over KANSAS CITY
Giants (-2) over DALLAS
New Orleans (+6.5) over DENVER
ARIZONA (+7) over San Francisco

Last week: 5-7-1
This week: 1-0
Season: 53-48-3

Week 7 Picks

Here are my Week 7 picks:

BUFFALO (-3) over Tennessee
CAROLINA (+2.5) over Dallas
Baltimore (+7) over HOUSTON
INDIANAPOLIS (-2) over Cleveland
Arizona (+7) over MINNESOTA
Washington (+6) over GIANTS
ST. LOUIS (+5) over Green Bay
New Orleans (-1.5) over TAMPA BAY
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Jets
OAKLAND (-6.5) over Jacksonville
Pittsburgh (-1) over CINCINNATI
CHICAGO (-6.5) over Detroit

Last week: 7-7
This week: 1-0
Season: 48-41-2

Week 6 Picks

I have work today, so here are some quick picks for Week 6 in the NFL.

ATLANTA (-10) over Oakland
BALTIMORE (-3) over Dallas
CLEVELAND (+3) over Cincinnati
St. Louis (+4.5) over MIAMI
Indianapolis (+3) over JETS
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over Detroit
Kansas City (+4) over TAMPA BAY
ARIZONA (-4) over Buffalo
New England (-3.5) over SEATTLE
Giants (+6.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Minnesota
Green Bay (+3.5) over HOUSTON
Denver (Pick'em) over SAN DIEGO

Last week: 5-8 (Didn't get the Rams-Cards pick in on time)
This week: 1-0
Season: 41-34-2

Week 5 Picks

The past two weeks, my regular job has got in the way of my normal routine of putting NFL picks in this space. Not this week, I'm back and ready to write. Here we go with Week 5 picks:

CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Miami

Has it ever occurred to anyone that the Bengals just might be good for two straight years? If you look at the Bengals history, only once did they make the playoffs in back-to-back years (and that was helped by the 1982 players strike) and haven't put together two full seasons in a row with winning records since 1975-76. I know Miami isn't awful (and had a lot a bad luck in Arizona when all six fumbles get recovered by the other team), but I'm liking what I've seen from the Bengals this year

Green Bay (-6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

Because of the debacle in Seattle, the Packers really can't afford to waste away games. Yet, they haven't played their best; either their offense or defense fails them, win or lose. A bye week helps the Colts, but there's any pass rush by Green Bay, I don't envision any chance for Andrew Luck to keep pace with the Packers offense.

Baltimore (-6) over KANSAS CITY

Why are the Ravens only giving six against the Chiefs? I know it's at Arrowhead, but we just saw the Chargers ravage this team in KC. The Chiefs turn the ball more than anyone in the league, which must have Ed Reed, LaDarius Webb and Haloti Ngata salivating.

Cleveland (+8) over GIANTS

So when I pick against the Giants, they win; when I pick them, they lose. Clearly I have that much of an impact on them. Having said that, I'd have more confidence in the Browns if Lawrence Tynes' FG had the distance last Sunday, since I know the Giants would have no showed this game. Instead, I expect a close one which they pull it out late, because that's what the Giants do at home.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Philadelphia

The bye week came at a perfect time for the Steelers. Now they get Rashad Mendenhall, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu back. Expect more pounding for Michael Vick (though that's something you can mention prior to any Eagles game). Remember, the offense hasn't been a problem for the Steelers and they'll be better with Mendenhall's return. A more stout Steelers defense makes this too much for the Eagles on the road.

Atlanta (-3) over WASHINGTON

So are the Falcons very good, or are they very lucky. Weeks 1 and 3 showed how good they can play. Weeks 2 and 4 showed them play well, but not well enough for a team that should contend for a Super Bowl. Atlanta can basically wrap up the NFC South today with a win over the Redskins. I know Mike Shanahan can probably see what Carolina did last week and try to have RGIII play more like that, but the Falcons have been particularly impressive on the road. I don't see Atlanta fooling around today.

CAROLINA (-2) over Seattle

I never really like Seattle on the road and even though picking a team coached by Ron Rivera is an exercise in torture, I just don't have the confidence that the Seahawks will play well enough on offense to take advantage of the Panthers porous defense. Cam Newton and the Carolina offense will need to play better than their last home game, something I think will happen.

Chicago (-6) over JACKSONVILLE

Normally, I'd be worried about a team who played very well on Monday night, then plays a lower-profile game on Sunday. However, the Jaguars still have Blaine Gabbert, so I'm less worried and expect more Bears defensive success. Plus, the narrative of Jay Cutler not being consistent, or something, wouldn't tend to show up in a game like this, since it's not on the front-burner.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Tennessee

Vegas isn't convinced on the Vikings yet, but I am. At least I'm convince that the Titans are the worst team in football and shouldn't get less than seven on the road against a good team. Next week at Washington would be a bigger test for Minnesota, but I do see 4-1 for Christian Ponder, the anti- Blaine Gabbert.

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) over Denver

Brady vs. Manning!!!! I love how no matter how an NFL schedule is drawn up, a matchup between these two QB's must always happen. The thing with the Patriots is that they only lost twice by 3 points combined. Peyton isn't good enough yet to go toe-to-toe with Brady, especially when he still can't make  accurate deep throws.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Buffalo

Midway through last week's game, the Bills were on their way to a 3-1 mark and first place. Then they were outscored 45-7 and now have to play a Niners team who can probably put up the 45 and give up 0. In fact, they would have done it last week if not for missed FG's and showing mercy to run out the clock inside the red zone.

San Diego (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Drew Brees will break Johnny Unitas' record for more consecutive games with a TD pass, but that's not going to keep the Saints from falling to 0-5. Once again, the Chargers are reeling you in that they are going to be dominant and actually make them smart for keeping Norv Turner all these years. We know that they're not and he will screw up something at some point, but not against this Saints team.

Houston (-8.5) over JETS

The start of the deluge for the Jets was last week against the 49ers. Now another Super Bowl contender who does everything well will continue this. I guess the good news for the Jets is that everyone in New York will care about Yankees-Orioles, so they got that going for them. Which is nice.

I just realized that I have the favorite in all but two games. This means I'm in for a bloodbath today. Either way, enjoy the games everyone.

Last week: 9-6
Season: 35-26-2

Week 2 Picks

A lot usually gets made after Week 1, which teams who win are basically are heading to the playoffs and those who lose are about to completely fall apart. Well, clearly this can never be true since that doesn't account for the four teams extra who win over the amount of playoff berths. So the key as you move on from week-to-week is to see which victories were ones that just happened to be a perfect day last week and which ones are those that are more a lasting effect. The same goes with losing results and it makes one careful about how think of these teams as they move on. We'll try to do the same today.

BUFFALO (-3) over Kansas City

I want to see the Bills at home before I was to believe that last week's loss to the Jets is indicative to another bad season. The Chiefs had a tough loss at home last week, which was expected in my eyes with no Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers. A loss here for Kansas City doesn't doom them.

CINCINNATI (-7) over Cleveland

Not particularly impressed with the Bengals last week, but they get to play against Brandon Weeden. While the Browns look to have a good defense, a win on the road for Weeden is too much to ask.

INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over Minnesota

Get Andrew Luck in the comfort of home, take Christian Ponder out of his comfort zone and I see both teams reverse from last week.

MIAMI (+3) over Oakland

I didn't think I'd take Miami this year, but then I saw the Raiders play on Monday and they have a potential to be very bad as well. So yes, I'll take the points at home.

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Arizona

No chance Kevin Kolb walks into Foxboro and keeps the Cardinals close with the Pats. This New England schedule is just embarrassingly easy.

Tampa Bay (+8) over NY GIANTS

Giants might very well win, but the Bucs look good and the Giants tend to take for granted teams who they expect to win.

Baltimore (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

Why are the Eagles favored by 3? I'm sorry I doubted the Ravens, they look scary good. Philly, on the other hand, look ordinary and even though Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson will play, they are hurt and you don't want to be hurt against the Ravens defense.

CAROLINA (+3) over New Orleans

Can't say I was surprised by the Saints losing last week. One thing I do expect is a better Cam Newton from last week.

Houston (-7) over JACKSONVILLE

We saw last week what the Texans are capable of, especially at the end of the first half when they scored three times inside the two minute warning. Jacksonville did some good things in Minnesota, but Houston's a different animal.

Washington (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS

Loved what I saw from Robert Griffin III last week and even though the Rams nearly won in Detroit, it was more Matt Stafford playing awful than the Rams playing great. Mike Shanahan might be able to reclaim the label "genius" if RGIII continues this way.

SEATTLE (-3) over Dallas

We do tend to forget how Seattle has the best home-field advantage in the league (especially after the Saints loss last week) and it would be Dallas like to drop this game as everyone became excited after the Opening Night win over the Giants.

PITTSBURGH (-5) over Jets

No Revis=No Chance. Jets DB's will have plenty of trouble with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and their own chance is to pound Ben Roethlisberger all day long. And I'm not counting on Mark Sanchez to play as well as last week against the Steelers defense, who should be healthier today.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Tennessee

While the Raiders looked bad, the Chargers controlled the game for the most part, but have to figure out how to score more touchdowns. Today's a good start against a very ordinary Titans team, who have a 6-10, 7-9 feel to them.

SAN FRANCISCO (-7) over Detroit

Handshake Game today and the sad thing for the Lions is that if Stafford was going to have trouble at home against the Rams defense, how will he fare against the Niners defense? San Francisco looks to be scary good.

ATLANTA (-3) over Denver

It's one thing for Peyton to win at home against a banged up Steelers team, but now you have the Broncos going to Atlanta, facing a team that has Super Bowl as they only goal. Expect a rough night for the Denver defense in the Georgia Dome.

Last week 5-11
Season: 6-11

Thursday Night Pick

With the NFL making Thursday night football games a season long event, this means there will be a blog post every Thursday to preview that night's game. It beings tonight with the Chicago Bears going to Green Bay to take on their archrival Packers. The Bears are coming off a win over the Colts, which saw the Bears offense show everything that they are capable of doing this year. Jay Cutler was 21/35 for 333 yards with two touchdowns. He found Brandon Marshall a lot, in the tune of nine catches and 119 yards and one touchdown. And they utilized a two-headed running attack with Matt Forte and Michael Bush, combining for 122 yards and three touchdowns. As for the defense, they had more of a bend, but don't break mentality; yet they still forced five turnovers in the decisive win.

The Packers, on the other hand, had a rude wakeup call to begin their 2012 campaign. San Francisco came into Lambeau and ran all over Green Bay with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. Last year, the Packers had the worst defense in the league, and the Niners took advantage of that. Alex Smith was superb, going 20-26 for 211 yards and two touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers didn't play bad, but the Packers were frustrated all day by the San Francisco defense. And let's not talk about the Packers running game, because they didn't have one.

So what to make of these two teams tonight? One thing, the Bears have to be licking their chops when watching video of the Green Bay defense. We all know the Packers fans are known as cheeseheads, but cheese you think of after last week was Swiss and the Bears suddenly potent offense should be able to put some points on them. However, instead of playing a rookie QB like last week, the Bears will be facing the best QB in football and a desperate Packers team who will try to avoid an 0-2 start, especially with both games at home. I'm expecting a shootout, but a very good game Clay Matthews (one of the rare Packers to show up on defense last week) and a better performance by the Green Bay defensive line to make the difference. And if they don't, then the Packers are in real trouble.

GREEN BAY (-5) over Chicago: 38-31

Giants-Niners Preview

Finally, we have the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. In the AFC blog post yesterday, I made mention how only a select few make it to the AFC Championship game and win the game in the last 11 years. Well, the NFC has been the opposite, with 10 different Super Bowl representatives for the last 10 years. Today, the Niners can make it 11, or the Giants can be the NFC team with the most since 2000 with 3. Also, when seeing these two teams play in the playoffs, there's history. There's the 1990 NFC Championship Game, the hardest hitting game of all time (watch any Giants-49ers game from the late 80s, early 90s and you'll stop believing SF was a "finesse" team). There's Mark Bavaro dragging the 49ers defense, Montana to Rice in Giants Stadium and of course, the 2002 Wild Card game. What history will be made today? That's not one of them, but here are the five questions for this matchup.

1. Which team can establish the run better?

In the first game, which the Niners won 27-20, the Giants didn't have Ahmad Bradshaw, while the 49ers lost Frank Gore early. In the end, San Fran had Kendall Hunter make a big play on the ground, while the Giants didn't get that from Brandon Jacobs. The difference between these teams is that the 49ers have been outstanding on run defense, while the Giants in the regular season were far from it. During the playoff run, they showed they can shut a big-time runner down when Michael Turner was bottled up during the Wild Card game. Giants need more of the same today, as well as Bradshaw making things happen when the Giants are running.

2. How much will special teams matter?

Now I know that's a dumb question, because they always matter. However, if special teams becomes the deciding factor in this game, it's a MAJOR advantage to the Niners. Andy Lee can blast punts, and Ted Ginn Jr. can run them back. I'd say that David Akers is the weak link today because of his mixed history when kicking against the Giants, but he's home and it mitigate that a little. The Giants, on the other hand, have return men who I worry about catching the football then actually making a play, and a kicker in Lawrence Tynes, who Giants fans don't trust, even after kicking the team to the Super Bowl. I'm not saying the Giants can't make a special teams play, but if special teams makes a difference (think Texans-Ravens as an example), it helps the home team.

3. How does Eli Manning handle the San Fran pass rush?

They will make plays on defense. That's who the 49ers are under Jim Harbaugh. They got to Drew Brees (particularly Justin Smith) and frustrated him most of the day. Still, Brees found ways to get the ball to his big play guys to put the Saints in a position to win. Now, we have Eli, same type quarterback, who'll stay in the pocket. He now has to find his big WR's Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, not to mention secondary options like Mario Manningham and Bradshaw. And for the Giants, they need the Jake Ballard from earlier this year who made Giants fans forget about Kevin Boss. And if the Niners have one weakness on defense, it's Donte Whitmer's predisposition to go for highlight plays and failing (think Charlie Peprah last week on Nicks' first TD).

4. How do the Niners mitigate the Giants pass rush?

Last week, Alex Smith faced the Saints blitz late and took full advantage in the winning TD drive. The Giants, unfortunately for them, won't do a lot of blitzing. They can get to the QB with that front four, allowing seven defenders flood passing lanes, forcing QB's to be perfect on their throws. Aaron Rodgers couldn't do that last week, will Alex Smith have more luck. Elsewhere when the Niners have the ball, look for the Giants to double Vernon Davis. No way they let him beat them. Which will likely leave Michael Crabtree going against Corey Webster. Crabtree would need to win this matchup if the Niners are to win (or hope Aaron Ross plays him a few times and Smith realizes to throw to him at that point).

5. Who wins?

The Giants won't be frustrated if they can't get to Alex Smith early, if they can't run early, if they fall behind early. This is a team that will grind you down for four quarters and once they reach that 4th quarter, the Giants usually take control. Helps when your QB has the most 4th quarter TD's in a single season in NFL history. 49ers are a great team, but even though they're home, I don't think they are ready for the Super Bowl quite yet. Giants win 30-20.

Ravens-Patriots Preview

The AFC will continue to demonstrate that there's a clear hierarchy as old stalwarts New England and Baltimore will do battle in the AFC Championship game tomorrow. Since 2000, only the Pats (4), Steelers (3), Colts (2), Raiders (1) and Ravens (1) have been the AFC's Super Bowl representative. Of the championship game representatives; its 19 of 24 counting tomorrow's game (Pats 6th, Ravens 3rd). That's a remarkable level of consistency (yes, I know the Raiders shouldn't thrown in a consistency argument unless it has to do with losing and firing coaches) in a supposedly parity-driven league. Enough with the history lesson, here's the five questions for tomorrow's contest.

1. Which Ravens defense shows up?

Will it be the only that completely shut down the 49ers on Thanksgiving night, or the one who looked slow against the Texans, needing gift turnovers to win last week. If the Ravens think they can giveaway chances for takeaways against Tom Brady, they will be sorely mistaken; and he won't make the throws T.J. Yates made all day last week. Even if the Ravens look quicker against New England, that's not going to be enough; leading to my next question...

2. How do the Ravens cover Gronk, Hernandez and Welker?

It's the question every team playing the Patriots face. Obviously, the Broncos didn't have an answer. Everyone who believes the Ravens have a chance point out to their playoff win in New England back in 2009. Little known fact: Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were still in school when that game took place, while Wes Welker was injured the week prior to the playoff meeting. A little easier to beat the Pats when they best three offensive weapons weren't involved. If I'm Baltimore, I'm not allowing Gronkowski and Hernandez beat me deep, and if that means Welker ends with 15 catches in front of me, then so be it. Ravens need to pick their poison and that is hoping for less possessions, allowing the offense to stay close.

3. How do the Patriots stop Ray Rice, who had his way two years ago?

Unfortunately for New England, they don't have the defense that Houston has; who did a great job with Ray Rice, fixing what they did wrong in the earlier meeting and winning battles at the line. One thing the Pats must do is to not allow an 80-yard touchdown run on the first play of the game like they did in that last meeting. Everything fell apart after that. Makes this a huge game for guys like Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes who must not allow Rice to reach second level on his runs. Also means that you'll see eight men in the box, daring Joe Flacco to throw. You know where this is headed...

4. Can Joe Flacco make the Pats pay if they sell hard on the run?

Flacco has been much maligned that no one seems to have faith in his ability to win, at least that's the perception I see. Well, tomorrow is a perfect chance for Flacco to prove doubters wrong, especially if New England won't allow anything from Ray Rice in the running game. Flacco can always use Rice as a pass-catcher, and should benefit from Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith against the Patriots secondary. Even Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta will be valuable options for Flacco and a good Flacco would only open up the defense more so that Ray Rice can run in the second half.

5. So who wins?

If the Ravens play mistake-free football, limit the possessions in this game and get some pressure on Tom Brady with Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs (avoiding too much blitzing), the Ravens can win. Seems like too much needs to go right for Baltimore for this to happen. And you can never stop Rob Gronkowski. Add that Joe Flacco is facing the defense that has the most takeaways in the AFC and the task for the Ravens is too great. Patriots are back in the Super Bowl, winning 31-14.

Sunday Divisional Round Preview

Time for the Sunday games, after the predictable Pats blowout of Tebow and the Broncos and the epic finish in San Francisco. That game was amazing yesterday; one which I wanted to last forever. The best football games are the ones which teams trade scores at some point. And for all the Niners fans, now you know that Alex Smith is capable to win a big game. Can he win the Super Bowl? Well, let's see how the playoffs play out if he needs to go to Lambeau and/or have to face the Patriots or the Ravens/Texans. Perfect segue to my picks today.

Houston at Baltimore

Of all the weekend's games, this is the one which lacks juice. It's easy to see once you realize the starting QB's are T.J. Yates and Joe Flacco. Of all the other games, the only QB that gives you a meh feeling is Alex Smith, but it was great offense vs great defense and Smith rose to the occasion when it mattered most. Shame is, this game is the one with the two best running backs left with Arian Foster and Ray Rice; yet the defenses here are so good, the quarterbacks will decide this one. Too bad for Houston, they have the rookie QB on the road unlike last week when Andy Dalton was the rookie on the road. Plus, they lost to the Ravens pretty handily back in October when Matt Schaub was healthy. The only argument I can see for the Texans is that their defense shuts down Baltimore, Flacco plays horrible and Andre Johnson (who didn't play the earlier game) makes a couple plays. I just don't see it. Ravens win 20-3.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay

Walking out of MetLife Stadium after last week's dominating win over the Falcons, the fans seemed to believe that this is 2007 all over again; quick start, bad losses to bad teams, admirable performance losing at home to unbeaten power 38-35, pass rush starts to dominate line as Eli Manning throws the Giants to wins. Now, the Giants have their chance to win the rematch against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Difference to this game than the Super Bowl; Green Bay's no longer unbeaten and they are home for the game. Giants, in my eyes though, are better considering the WR's are better, Jason Pierre-Paul more than makes up for Michael Strahan and we go into this knowing Eli Manning can win big games, not just hoping he would. Avoiding turnovers are extremely necessary in order to win this game, since you can't Rodgers a short field while losing chances to score (which the Giants need to do). Someone's going to screw up this weekend among the heavily favored home teams. It wasn't the Pats, I don't think it's the Ravens, so it must be the Packers. Giants with the upset 34-30.

Saturday Divisional Round Preview

Last week, there was no preview of the Saturday Wild Card games (and a rushed version for Sunday). This week is different; the match ups are better and more interesting then most Divisional Rounds (most due to Tim Tebow). However in terms of best games, clearly the NFC has the better of the two conferences and just shows what's to me and Ashley Fox is true; the NFC is once again the better conference. And we'll begin the Divisional Round with the biggest toss-up of the four.

New Orleans at San Francisco

If this game was in New Orleans, the Saints win easy, probably like 35-16. The dome, the turf and the crowd would scare a team like the Niners (particularly Alex Smith) and their inability to score touchdowns would hurt greatly there. Lucky for San Francisco, they are at Candlestick, on that grass than can be longer and perhaps a bit muddy as most big Niners games were. Bill Barnwell showed us the stat that the Saints score about 2 touchdowns less a game on the road than at home. I was leaning Saints all week long, but then I started thinking, how many times does the road favorite win? It didn't happen last week in Denver. Saints lost in Seattle last year in the same fashion, though the Packers did win in Chicago for the NFC Title and the Ravens won in Kansas City as a favorite last year as well. That's a small sample size, so who do I go with. It's wrong to call the 2 seed beating a 3 seed an upset, but the Niners will win 19-17 and we finally give Jim Harbaugh and his defense some legitimate praise for shutting down a dominant offense.

Denver at New England

Will it be Tebow Time again? We know that Tebow will have to score like he did in Pittsburgh if there's any chance for his Broncos. Denver lucked out that Pittsburgh was a MASH unit by the end and Ben Roethlisberger couldn't move around the pocket creating plays like normal. Tom Brady won't need that. I don't see who defends the Pats TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. And while the Pats defense isn't good, they can ballhawk. Did you know that the Patriots led the AFC in takeaways, third in the league? So while they might lose coverage of players, they can make up for it by causing a turnover. I fully believe the Pats continue to play defense to stop the run, without selling out the deep ball like the Steelers did. New England wins in a walk, 45-17.

Come back tomorrow for the Sunday picks.

Sunday Wild Card Preview

Work this week didn't allow me to write up a Saturday preview (except for my Twitter thoughts), but here are my thoughts on the Saturday in football.

-If the Texans can play in Baltimore the way they played yesterday, they can beat the Ravens. Meaning they run well with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and if Andre Johnson can make a difference like he did on the TD pass. I know their defense will show up, but I expect a tougher time for young T.J. Yates on the road.

-I'd have a whole lot more confidence in the Bengals future if Mike Brown wasn't the man to decide on how to improve it. It's a lot to ask Andy Dalton to win his first road playoff game.

-Detroit is also on the right path, just need a running game and a better secondary. Now, any secondary can look bad against the Saints in New Orleans, but a running game would have kept the ball in the Lions' hands for more of the game.

-As for the Saints, what else is there to say about their offense. I really can't wait until they play San Francisco; great offense against great defense. Also curious how the Niners play in their first playoff game since Steve Mariucci's last game as coach.

Now onto today's games, one of which I will be attending. That's right, I'll be at MetLife Stadium for Giants-Falcons. Though I can be biased when the Giants are involved, I do think they win today 27-20 because the outdoors will hurt Atlanta, plus the Giants have their pass rush back, and not just Jason Pierre-Paul.

As for the late game, my first thought was no way can the Broncos beat the Steelers after the game they played against Kansas City and after losing their last 3 games. Over the past week, I've seen some people go the other way, with the worry being the Steelers who are hurt and those who are banged up. Also, too much is being made about the fact that 8-8 or worse teams playing home playoff games have done well recently. I expect some turnovers by Tebow and the Broncos and a couple play made by Ben Roethlisberger will be the difference. Steelers will win 20-3.