Wild Card Sunday

Before getting into Sunday's picks, here's my recap of Saturday's terrible day for me which both my picks lost. The Seahawks are living a charmed life right now, but let's be fair, Stanford would have beat the Saints defense yesterday. They were awful after taking the 10-0 lead. Drew Brees did all he could, but he couldn't play defense and they couldn't stop Seattle when they needed to. It was pretty much punctuated by Marshawn Lynch's epic run which is one of those runs you see on NFL Films when Jim Brown or Earl Campbell make one of their all-time runs. It was physical and overpowering and might be the best playoff run in history. As far as biggest upset, I'll hold off and still go with Jacksonville trotting into Denver and beating Elway and Co. 30-27 in the 1996 Playoffs, in terms of a non-Super Bowl upset (thus Jets, Pats and Giants don't count). We can get into writing off the Seahawks next week and the discussion on whether 7-9 teams should host playoff games can be tabled for the future, but for now, Seattle's on top of the world.

The Seahawks would need to share a spot with Rex Ryan, who finally gets his win over Peyton Manning and his Colts. Of course, he was given this win on a timeout call by Jim Caldwell that was Chris Webber-level bad. The Jets were going to take their chances on a 50 yard field goal. I don't have to remind Jets fans on how Herm Edwards did the exact same thing against the Steelers in the 2004 Playoffs and Doug Brien proceeded to miss the winning field goal. Caldwell gave the Jets a chance to reconsider and Mark Sanchez found Braylon Edwards at the 15, setting up a 32 yard winner for Nick Folk. Sanchez deserves credit for making that throw, because he was awful yesterday. He overthrew receiver after receiver and cost the Jets points at halftime with his interception. The Jets, smartly, ran much of the second half and dominated the line of scrimmage. As for the Colts, Peyton was able to move the ball but couldn't get into the end zone except the long TD to Pierre Garcon. The Jets defense deserves credit for daring Manning to run the ball and Manning obliged for the most part. Still, Manning in a tough game put the Colts in a position to win and maybe they do if the Colts can stop Cromartie's return or if Caldwell lets the Jets take the field goal from 50 yards.

Onto the picks with the first game in Kansas City with the Chiefs hosting the Ravens. I thought the Chiefs had a better than punchers chance to win and the Seahawks winning makes a Chiefs win more possible. The Ravens are capable of beating anyone in the AFC, might be the best team on paper in the AFC. The problem is the Ravens all year when playing a big game seem to come small in a close game.

Ravens will win if: They do exactly what they did to the Dolphins in this playoff game two years ago, and to a lesser extent last year to New England, which is control tempo on the road against an inferior team (I go lesser with the Pats because I didn't find them inferior). The Chiefs running game would have to be stopped and Matt Cassel needs to be blitzed. Flacco just needs to control the offense, not turn the ball over and not panic late.

Chiefs will win if: They can run with Jamaal Charles and the crowd can disrupt the Ravens. Cassel would need to be upright and make a couple of plays. The Chiefs defense would also need to control the line of scrimmage and not allow big days from Flacco or Ray Rice.

My pick: I picked the Chiefs to make the playoffs back in start of the year. I would love to pick them today and I probably would if the game started at 4:30. The Ravens tend to play great on the 1pm Wild Card game. Plus, the only time the Ravens lost in the Wild Card round, the memorable Anthony Wright was the starting QB. So the Ravens (-3.5) will win today 20-10.

Now to the main event of the weekend, the Packers and the Eagles. The Packers soared in the last two games, while the Eagles slumped. Both teams have great QB play, with Aaron Rodgers appearing conventional but can break a run when necessary and Michael Vick ready to run, but more willing to throw in the pocket than in the past. Both teams have great receivers, Eagles are more likely to go deep, Packers can do both intermediate and deep very well. The Packers defense is better (the best one left in the NFC), while the Eagles run the ball better. Something's gotta give.

Packers will win if: They can blitz Vick for the full game and make him uncomfortable. This is a huge game for Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and the Packers defense. They have to stop LeSean McCoy and not let Vick find DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin deep. Offensively, Rodgers needs to thrive against an average Eagles defense, but at the very least to avoid killer interceptions.

Eagles will win if: Vick can run wild and Jackson makes two or three big plays. Also, if Rodgers can turn the ball over (likely meaning a big day for Asante Samuel) and can't throw in the wind today, the Eagles should win. McCoy running for over 100 yards would help as well.

My pick: Forget about the collapse, the Giants showed everyone how to contain Michael Vick, with a strong pass rush and avoid leaving contain. The Bears, Cowboys and Vikings all did the same. The Packers have the athletes to do the same, forget the first matchup as the Packers didn't gameplan Vick. Rodgers will make enough plays and I find a lower scoring game than most people think. Packers win 27-20.

Wild Card Saturday

I didn't plan to make my picks post so late, but the Seton Hall game delayed it and the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords kept me from writing over the last hour. Before I start, allow me to offer condolences to those who were injured or killed and their families. I don't usually have politics on this blog, but in this instance, I will make an exception. Don't comment about it unless you're echoing my sentiment or it will be removed (of course, any comments about the games will be encouraged).

Anyway, let's move on to football where the first game today is the Saints and the Seahawks which the 7-9 team is hosting the game (this needs to change). The Saints were dealt a blow when both Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were lost for the playoffs, leaving both Julius Jones and Reggie Bush as their only source of running. Which puts more on the shoulders of Drew Brees and the passing game. Seattle has a puncher's chance with Matt Hasselbeck, but he's more of a sitting duck for Gregg Williams pressure defense. I would have had no confidence if Charlie Whitehurst was under center.

Saints win if: They show up. In reality, the Saints need to take the early lead and get the crowd out of it. Best way to do that is to exploit the pourous Seahawks secondary and if Julius Jones has revenge on his mind against the Seahawks, then let him run.

Seahawks win if: They take the early lead and let the 12th man disrupt the Saints offense. Force Drew Brees to throw interceptions (and he threw 22 INT's this year) and shutdown the depleted Saints running game. Also, mistake-free football by the Seahawks offense and a couple plays by Leon Washington on special teams which could lead to points.

My pick: I see more and more people are talking themselves into either taking the 10.5 or picking the Seahawks outright and I'm thinking, why fool around. If you take the Saints and they lose, then you're just wrong and if you're like me, you can live with it. If you take the Seahawks and they get destroyed, then you just wasted your time. I'd rather be wrong than foolish. And I spent way too much time explaining, so Saints win 34-10.


The nightcap pits an AFC Championship Game rematch between the Jets and the Colts. Spread is the Colts favored by 2.5 and this is a split on who thinks who's going to win. The Jets are better this year and the Colts are worse, especially with the injuries to Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. The key of course is that Peyton Manning isn't hurt and carried the Colts to this playoff game. The Jets for the most part slumped to the end and while I said the Jets are better, it's because they can score more than last year. Their defense isn't as good and still can't pass rush without a blitz. That is dangerous when playing Manning, who not only can figure blitzes out, he's done so to Rex Ryan-coached teams for many years.

Jets win if: Their ground and pound lasts longer than 3 plays a series. Mark Sanchez needs to be efficient and they can put some points up. Meanwhile, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie must handle Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne and the front seven have to get to Manning and force turnovers.

Colts win if: Peyton solves the Jets defense and puts up points. The Colts running game needs to be good enough for Manning's play action plays will work. Meanwhile, the Colts defense needs to make a couple stops. A bad Sanchez wouldn't hurt if you're Indianapolis.

My pick: I originally was thinking the Colts, but I've kind of waffled because I think more "experts" are taking the Jets. Also, the Jets built their team for this game, adding Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson for more offensive punch and Cromartie to strengthen the secondary. However, no Jim Leonhard hurts and I think Blair White and Jacob Tamme will make a play over the middle for Manning. I have the Colts winning 31-21.

Come back tomorrow for the Sunday playoff picks.

Who Dat

Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints, who won the Super Bowl tonight over the Colts 31-17. This wasn't an easy win and honestly, it was pretty unexpected, especially after watching the first quarter and the Colts utterly dominate the Saints defense. The Saints looked tense and seemed like the moment was too big for them. So what happened, why did the Saints win and the Colts lose? Here are each of the key plays that made this game a Mardi Gras celebration in Miami.

1. In the Colts third drive, following the Saints field goal making it 10-3, Peyton Manning found Pierre Garcon open on a third down conversion, except Garcon dropped the ball and the Colts had to punt and wouldn't see the ball against until after the two minute warning.

2. The Saints had to go for it on fourth down inside the five because all a field goal there would have done was cut the lead to 10-6 and Manning would of had the ball closer to the 30. After the Saints failed to score, we all assumed the Colts would move the ball, at least for one first down. Instead, they call three running plays and the Saints get the ball right back and kick the field goal to end the half. In hindsight, missing the TD at the 1 was better than scoring one because if you give the Colts more field position, they probably score themselves. It was the best way to neutralize the Colts offense. I don't know who's responsible for the conservative gameplan on that series, but it was the first chink in the Colts armor.

3. Which leads to the second half and probably the perfect moment for a surprise onside kick. The Colts showed us after what would happen if they kickoff normal; they drive right down the field and score. Thus, Sean Payton was right to go for the onside kick, since 40 yards or 80 yards wouldn't have made the difference; though it's not an obvious move at all. Of course, if Hank Baskett holds onto the football, the Colts win. This onside kick was the difference between down 17-6 and 17-13 and the game is very different if it's the former.

4. The first moment that the Colts were in real doubt was the missed field goal. It's been said ad nauseum that Matt Stover doesn't have the range for a 50-yard kick, yet Jim Caldwell calls for a 51-yarder in order to chase three points. This drive was lost on third down on what I thought was the biggest mistake of the game by Manning, throwing for Collie, when Jonathan Vilma had him covered, while blanketed by two others. After dink and dunking the entire drive, including a 3rd and long which Manning setup a short 4th down conversion, he gets too greedy and forces Caldwell's hand. The play should have been the punt on 4th down, though if they went for it, I'd understand since the Saints offense was flawless. By kicking the field goal, they went safe and in the words of John Tortorella, "safe is death".

5. Finally, we come to the interception. After the Saints took the lead, the Colts drove down easily. Then on third down, Manning threw the pass that Tracy Porter read perfectly and took it to the house. I believe that Reggie Wayne was slow in his route and if he runs the route correct and quick, it's just a broken pass and it's fourth down. The shame is that one pass will be the legacy of this game for Peyton Manning, particularly those who think they know football, but have no clue (as well as the Manning-haters). Manning played a great game, though obviously outplayed by Brees.

Final thoughts:

-I watched Loud Mouths on SNY and Chris Carlin made the case that Brees had a better Super Bowl than Phil Simms. Thinking about it, I have to agree, since he needed to have a 32 for 39 game for 288 yards. Simms didn't have to have his 22 for 25 to win against the Broncos, it was just icing on the cake. Plus, Simms didn't need to lead a fourth quarter drive to beat Denver; Brees did last night. With this Super Bowl, Brees joins Brady and Manning in that top tier of quarterbacks, though he's still third behind them, assuming Brady isn't hurt next season. Also, now the Hall of Fame is a possibility.

-Somewhere inside, deep, DEEP down, I glad Jeremy Shockey caught the game-winning touchdown. You know what, no I don't, if I was saying this, I couldn't finish that sentence. I'm just glad Shockey didn't overcelebrate the touchdown or I would of probably threw the remote at the TV.

-I'd actually comment on the halftime show, except I didn't watch it. But I tweeted this at the time, why isn't there any network scheduling programming for halftime of the Super Bowl? I remember when WWF Sunday Night Heat had The Rock/Mankind WWF Title match in an empty arena and that was when they actually brought artists who I want to see perform. I wrote earlier that much of the recent musical acts have been stale, I don't count Prince and Springsteen, but we definitely need better acts at halftime, at least someone who was big in the 90s (Pearl Jam could be fine here, before they are too old as well).

-Coaching was the difference for the Saints as Sean Payton and Gregg Williams executed their gameplans. Payton took what the Colts gave and was rewarded for his guts, sorta like how Bill Parcells was in his first Super Bowl. I must say though, Payton's performance was like Bill Cowher's first Super Bowl with the surprise onside and fourth down call. Unfortunately for Cowher, he wasn't rewarded because he had Neil O'Donnell throwing into one particular white jersey with a star on the helmet all night. As for Williams, he sucked the Colts offense into the false sense of security and in the end was disrupting patterns by Manning and his receivers.

-The two villians I have to say for the Colts, Jim Caldwell and Reggie Wayne; they contributed to this defeat more than Manning did. Wayne was pretty awful, including the drop at the end of the game. The pleasant surprise, Joseph Addai, who ran well, before the Colts abandoned it in the fourth quarter. Just don't pick him for fantasy based on this game.

-This Super Bowl was very much like Super Bowl XXXII, when you have the Broncos-Packers who were arguably the two best in the NFL that season (with respect to the Chiefs and Niners), Elway vs. Favre who was just like Manning vs. Brees and almost the identical score, which each losing QB has a play they want back (in Favre's case, that final drive). Also, the Manning-Favre comparisons continue as they are both 1-1 in Super Bowls and threw the INT's that led to the Saints championship win.

-I want to see how Manning responds to this loss. His legacy isn't ruined because of this, but he can kiss Montana-status goodbye and that might have not been fair to compare him to Joe Cool. I don't think we've answered the Brady-Manning question yet and I still think his regular season numbers and performances can't just be dismissed. If the Colts are back in the playoffs again, it's because of Manning and perhaps that young defense and WR's grow up a little more and return to the Super Bowl. However, if this turns out to be the turning point of his career, we will adjust his legacy as such. Makes 2010 very interesting, other than the fact it could be the last season in a while.

-Finally, I wanted to mention the people of New Orleans who have adopted this team like no one since the old Browns and Colts in Baltimore after the devastation of Katrina. I can't help but think of Haiti because they like New Orleans had such a devastating event and maybe someday, they can find a rallying cry to hop on. It feels right that this team from this city won the Super Bowl. Those people deserve it. It's not a validation of the city being back from the hurricane, that hopefully can come after they host the Super Bowl in three years. It says that this city is past the worst and good things can come soon. Now if only I can party down there with them through Mardi Gras.

RIP Chris Henry

Chris Henry died today after suffering serious injuries in a car accident. To be honest, I was working yesterday when Henry was rushed to the hospital. Apparently, he fell out of a truck after fighting with his fiancee, leading to his death. It really caps off a year where celebrity deaths were almost too frequent, whether it was Michael Jackson, Steve McNair or Farrah Fawcett. Henry was just the latest, and among the most tragic of those to pass on. Hopefully, we can see the Bengals use this to head to a championship, which unlike when Sean Taylor died, Henry was already out of the lineup due to injury so it's just a personal loss, not combined with a talent loss.


Since I'm babbling, I'll write my Thursday night pick. It's really if you think the Colts play for real tonight or just like preseason. I think they do (meaning Manning plays a lot) and the Colts win.

Indianapolis (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

Football Friday and Angel Stadium Review

Before my review of Week 2 and Week 3 picks, here's Angel Stadium in a nutshell. When someone says the design of the stadium is similar to Yankee Stadium, their right, though also is a little Dodger Stadium-like in design. I'm glad the crowd wasn't into doing the wave, and only had bouncing beach balls as the distraction. I couldn't stand that Rally Monkey, just annoyed me how they constantly showed it batter after batter. Yankee fans I would say was 25-35% of the crowd Wednesday afternoon; for some reason, I believe if this was the Red Sox, it would be 35-45%. Other than that, it's not really a memorable stadium, in neither good nor bad way. Now let's look back at Week 2:

- I think we are looking at last year's Ravens with this year's Jets. Rex Ryan has them playing defense just like he had Baltimore a year ago, while Mark Sanchez is just playing smart, safe football at QB. Huge win against the Patriots, who for once seem vulnerable (where have we heard that before). Darrelle Revis is proving to be maybe the best CB in football after shuting down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss in back-to-back weeks. All these tools have Mark Sanchez smiling like he's still dating LA girls at USC (though there's very little dropoff in NY, ask Joe Namath). On the other hand, Matt Stafford shouldn't be confused with Matty Ice; the Lions are still bad and it's nice to see a QB struggle in his rookie year again.

- The brothers Manning continue to show their greatness last weekend with dueling game-winning drives to steal games their teams should have lost. Peyton didn't even have the ball for more than 15 minutes, a point hammered home by ESPN afterwards. As for Eli, he bailed out the Giants who couldn't run the football or stop it on the ground. I loved hearing all the praise Eli received last week, the way Eli handles himself in a two-minute drill is just perfect. I knew when there was 3:40 left to go that it was too much time for him and he proved it. Which is more than I can say for his opponent.

- All of a sudden Jake Delhomme has company in the maligned QB group now that Cowboys fans and alumni at leaping off the Tony Romo bandwagon. Romo was absolutely awful against the Giants and was the reason the Cowboys lost in the opener in the House that Jerry built. Apparently, Jerry Jones had a lot to do with Cowboys Stadium since NBC saw it fit to show him every two minutes (as if the network name is Jones Broadcasting Company). JBC cameras even found Jerry with a no-so great moment for him, but maybe the greatest moment for all Cowboy-haters when he went digging for oil after Bruce Johnson's pick six.

- The Dolphins were also on the wrong side of the a game they should of won, but this because of some awful coaching by Tony Sparano. He went for an inside draw on 3rd and 6 with the game tied and Miami in field goal range, taking the three points, even though Peyton Manning is the other QB. Then, they run as poor a two minute drill as Eli runs one good, burning a timeout when they waste the full play clock. The other two bad coaching performances of last week include Norv Turner and Todd Haley. Haley was killed by Jason Whitlock, Mike Lombardi and briefly by Bill Simmons for his overreacting on the sidelines and his bad playcalling. As for Norv, I watch the end of the Ravens-Chargers game and I was appalled by the play selection on 4th and 2 against a team like the Ravens. I don't bail on my picks too early, but if I did, I would immediately switch the Chargers with the Ravens. Baltimore is the best team in football now that Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense is able to put up points and the defense is still there.

- I continue to be impressed by Drew Brees on a week-by-week basis as the Saints are primed to challenge the Pats scoring record and Brady's touchdown record. Their competition in the Falcons has done well to win their first two and Tony Gonzalez seems to have completed that offense, which has seen no sophomore slump by Matt Ryan.

- The rest of the unbeatens in the league include the Vikings, Niners and Broncos. For Minnesota and San Francisco, it's because of Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, respectively. For Denver, it's because of Brandon Stokely and the Cleveland Browns, respectively. The Browns are awful and I will continue to drive home the point that Eric Mangini is this decade's Rich Kotite; I still can't believe the Browns hired him.

- Kudos to the Texans, Bengals, Cardinals, Bills and Raiders for winning bounce back games after varying degrees of tough Week 1 losses. Houston puts their bandwagon on track, Arizona looked like last year; Cincy allowed Chad Ochocinco do his Lambeau Leap, TO finally did something productive and the Raiders won in spite of JaMarcus Russell's putrid passing because Todd Haley is proving to be a bad coach and the new frontrunner of the first year coach that's fired (for the record, no Raider coach is ever on the board, you can predict crazy/senile)

- The opposite of kudos goes to the Titans, Packers and most especially the Redskins. Anytime your fanbase is angry after a win, you get a negative kudo from me.


Now let's make Week 3 picks, as well as college. I apologize for finishing this late and I'm only going to show my picks for the 3:30 and later games today (Home team in CAPS):

Tennessee (+2.5) over JETS- Let down week for the Jets (Titans); Titans (Oilers) need this one.
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville- Jaguars are awful, Texans probably are good.
Kansas City (+7.5) over PHILLY - Can't trust Kevin Kolb yet, reverses if McNabb somehow plays.
BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Cleveland- Ravens haven't had a blowout win yet, it's this week.
Giants (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY- Even hurt, the Giants should easily beat the Bucs.
DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington- Never again give a touchdown with this Redskins team.
Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS- The Packers are better than last week; the Rams aren't.
San Fran (+7) over MINNESOTA- Let's just say I think the real Brett Favre will show up.
Atlanta (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND- The wrong week for the Pats to play the Falcons.
Chicago (-2,5) over SEATTLE- Last week could start good things for the Bears, Seahawks will struggle with Wallace at QB.
New Orleans (-6) over BUFFALO- Don't overreact to the Bills win over Tampa, do with Brees.
SAN DIEGO (-5.5) over Miami- Battle of bad coaches, Norv's team is better than Tony's.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCINNATI- I just can't pick against Big Ben, not against an inferior team.
Denver (-1.5) over OAKLAND- The fact the Raiders were favored to start this week was laughable.
Indy (+2.5) over ARIZONA- Cards looked too good against a bad team, tougher against Peyton.
DALLAS (-8.5) over Carolina- Romo shouldn't disappoint two weeks in a row, easily should win.

NFL Record: 18-14 (Bears were underdogs last week, not favorites)

California (-5.5) over OREGON
VA TECH (+3.5) over Miami
TCU (+2.5) over CLEMSON
Pittsburgh (Pick'em) over NC STATE
Notre Dame (-6.5) over PURDUE
PENN STATE (-9) over Iowa
HOUSTON (+1.5) over Texas Tech
Washington (+9) over STANFORD

College Record: 13-20-1