Happy Thanksgiving

I hope you can read this before enjoying turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce and more, but I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. It's also a day for football (though to be fair, the Arrested Development marathon on IFC can make me flip) and with three games, let's make some Thanksgiving picks on this great day of football ahead.


Green Bay at Detroit

Game is starting shortly and is the biggest Lions Thanksgiving game in forever. Meanwhile, the Packers keep going for an unbeaten season and look for revenge from last season's meeting, which saw the Lions win after Aaron Rodgers suffered a concussion. I believe they get revenge, and beat the Lions 34-30, which also means the Lions cover the 6 they're getting. Now, here's a great Lions moment on Thanksgiving (extremely hard to find and can't put on the website).


I'll have the last two games later.

Super Bowl Sunday

Today is the big day as the Packers and the Steelers finally do battle. It feels like forever since both teams won their way to the Super Bowl, plus while the hype of the Super Bowl is there because it's Green Bay and Pittsburgh, there hasn't been much created in terms of these two teams, aside from Ben Roethlisberger's redemption. Quick question, what has taken place in the past two weeks that made you remember that the Packers are in the Super Bowl? Couldn't think of anything, did you, besides maybe Troy Polamalu over Clay Matthews for the Defensive Player of the Year.


Despite that, let's make sense of this game, which unlike Fox who will take four hours before the game to make sense of it, I'll just use about 10 minutes of your time. Which is plenty for you to watch Caps/Pens, Celtics/Magic and to go to or set up your own party for tonight. Here are the five things to look for as you watch this game, and none of those five include commercials or the Black Eyed Peas (sorry, no alternative halftime viewing recommendations by me, though I know people love the Puppy Bowl).


1. The Packers defense not only plays like the Steelers defense, they are actually better. The reason; because the Packers have Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, the best trio of CB's in the NFL. Add Nick Collins and it will be hard for Big Ben to throw against Green Bay. And that's not including Matthews, B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins, who can give Roethlisberger as much trouble as James Harrison, James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons can give Aaron Rodgers.

2. However, if Troy Polamalu is healthy and active, that advantage swing right back in the Steelers favor. I've used this space to show my praise for Polamalu, hell, he was my Defensive Player of the Year strictly because his presence makes the Steelers better. He hasn't played well through his injury, but the Steelers have been winning despite this because the Ravens and Jets both have inferior offenses and the games were played in Pittsburgh. Switch to a game with a great offense like the Packers with two weeks to study the Steelers defense on a neutral site and indoors, which the Packers play better, and Polamalu must be more than just on the field. If he is the game changer that you watched against the Ravens in Baltimore or the Cincinnati game, the Steelers will stop Rodgers from having another game like against Atlanta.


3. The kicking game swings the special teams advantage to the Packers. Tim Masthay had a great game against the Bears, and he needed to considering they have Devin Hester returning punts. Mason Crosby is one of the top kickers in football and he gets to play indoors. Shawn Suisham hasn't been bad, and though I'd worry about him outdoors, indoors he should be fine. However, Jeremy Kapinos is an injury replacement and isn't that good. Meaning the Steelers will need to set up punts from around midfield to avoid short Green Bay possessions.


4. Until proven otherwise, the Steelers are the better running team. James Starks has been great for the Packers this postseason, and if he plays well in the Super Bowl, this possibly be a performance like Timmy Smith (hopefully it translates into future seasons). However, the Steelers have a great run defense (despite no Aaron Smith) with the LB's mentioned earlier and LaMarr Woodley, plus Casey Hampton in the middle and Brett Keisel at DE. As for the Steelers, Rashad Mendenhall ran wild against the Jets two weeks ago, but the Packers are better in the front seven than the Jets because of Matthews and Raji. Steelers will also miss Maurkice Pouncey, but they can run right behind Flozell Adams, yes, that Flozell Adams, the Human Penalty Flag. So, yes, the Steelers can run, but if the Packers defense plays well, it won't be a great advantage.


5. The QB matchup is a wash. The reason, Big Ben's experience. Rodgers has the advantage in terms of dealing with the weaker secondary and gets to play indoors. However, if the Steelers get pressure on Rodgers, that advantage is taken away. Meanwhile, while the secondary will be tough for Roethlisberger, he still has Heath Miller to go to as a fallback look. Green Bay, while I think have the better WR's, are about even when you include the TE's (mainly because of no Jermichael Finley). The question is, what do you believe in more, Big Ben's 10-2 playoff record and two titles or this being the year Aaron Rodgers ascends to the top of the list of best QB's in football, like Drew Brees last year.


Prediction: I love Aaron Rodgers indoors, he seems to have control of the offense and their receivers benefit from a fast track. Meanwhile, I think Big Ben will have trouble against the Packers corners, particularly Charles Woodson, who will right things after losing in the Super Bowl as a Raider back in 2003. The Packers will 34-27 and the score is closer because the Steelers get a late TD to make it only 7. Otherwise, enjoy the Super Bowl.

Conference Championship Sunday

Today is one of the five best days of sport in America and we look forward to two conference championship games that should epitomize what we consider as "real" football; defense and cold weather. All four teams play good defense and both games are being played in temperatures below 20 degrees. The interesting thing about today's games is that we expect them to be close. If you see the prior meetings, all the games were down to the wire. So does everything hold to form today?


Let's start with Green Bay and Chicago, who have their rubber match. The case for Chicago winning is this: Cold day and a tough field can slow down the Packers offense and Jay Cutler at his best. Here's the weird thing about today's games, Jay Cutler is the one QB who I'm afraid can either rise or sink his team. If he comes out like last week and throws a touchdown or two, I think it will get the Bears defense to play better. If he comes out flat, the Packers will runaway with this one like they did against the Falcons (though, I figure a runaway today would be 20-3). The other thing interesting, even though the Packers are the better offensive team, I happen to think a higher scoring game favors the Bears, unless the Packers are doing all the scoring. Otherwise, I still say that while the Bears have a good defense, if you block Julius Peppers, you can beat them. The Packers have the better all around defense and Clay Matthews, is tougher to stop. Add that the Packers have found a running back in James Starks who can free up Aaron Rodgers to have a little mystery in the plays and don't see how the Bears win. I have the Packers winning 24-14.


Onto the Jets and Steelers who it seems like a toss up. The Jets won the earlier meeting, but the Steelers didn't have Troy Polamalu. And if Jason Taylor gets blocked late in the 4th quarter, that game is likely tied and would have gone to OT. The two things the Jets must do: score first like the last time and avoid turnovers in their own side of the field. You don't want to give Ben Roethlisberger a short field, its a guaranteed score, just ask Baltimore. For Pittsburgh, their line play, particularly from the tackles will be key. If they give Roethlisberger time, he'll find success, whether the Jets cover the Steelers WR's well or not. So the defensive key for the Jets is to get to Ben quickly, don't count on getting a lot of coverage sacks. Offensively for the Jets, balance is necessary, as well as giving Mark Sanchez some easy passes to gain a rhythm. The interesting thing about the Jets today is that a) they don't have revenge on their minds and haven't said much, unlike last week and b) also unlike last week and the week prior, they aren't facing a particularly proficient offense today, so the gameplan will be more interesting as the Jets probably would go about their game the way they normally would.


So who wins? Here's what I believe: The Steelers always seems to force a turnover, and that turnover proves huge. I also believe the Steelers will run the ball better than the Jets, or at the very least, the threat of the run will open up more passing for Ben. You sense where I'm going, I have Pittsburgh outlasting the Jets 20-17, which for picks purposes means I'm taking the Jets +4. How's that for a hedge?

Divisional Saturday

We have entered the best weekend in the NFL season as the divisional round seems to always have at least one great game in the bunch. It's fair to say that today won't be different as Ravens-Steelers will be one of the matchups and those two always play close games. As for Packers-Falcons, this year's NFC Super Bowl representative will come from this game.

We'll start in Pittsburgh, as the Ravens and Steelers face off again, the second time in three years both teams play a third game in the playoffs. Hard hitting and good defense is guaranteed, but the questions are, can the Ravens finish a big game with a win. All four losses for Baltimore are due to them not finishing games, in one way or another. If you think the Steelers will win, then the question is, do you think they will cover the 3. The fact is, I'm more confident in trusting Ben Roethlisberger in a playoff game than Joe Flacco, since Ben is 8-2 in playoff games (of course, one of the two is a loss to David Garrard, so hope for Ravens fans). I also think, check that, I know Troy Polamalu is a more important player to Pittsburgh than Ray Lewis or Ed Reed for Baltimore. Therefore, I have the Steelers winning 17-13.

In the nightcap, the questions concerning the two teams is follows: Are the Falcons capable of winning a big game when the spotlight is on them? The fact for them is they play the majority of their games with little attention, except for their three losses to Pittsburgh, Philly and New Orleans. As for the Packers, we need to know if a) James Starks can run like he did last week and b) if Mike McCarthy will hold back the Packers. My thoughts, I just don't trust the Falcons when the world watches them and I think Aaron Rodgers will trump any coaching errors by McCarthy. Plus, I picked Pittsburgh and Green Bay for the Super Bowl in September, why give up on them now? The Packers will win 27-17.

Wild Card Sunday

Before getting into Sunday's picks, here's my recap of Saturday's terrible day for me which both my picks lost. The Seahawks are living a charmed life right now, but let's be fair, Stanford would have beat the Saints defense yesterday. They were awful after taking the 10-0 lead. Drew Brees did all he could, but he couldn't play defense and they couldn't stop Seattle when they needed to. It was pretty much punctuated by Marshawn Lynch's epic run which is one of those runs you see on NFL Films when Jim Brown or Earl Campbell make one of their all-time runs. It was physical and overpowering and might be the best playoff run in history. As far as biggest upset, I'll hold off and still go with Jacksonville trotting into Denver and beating Elway and Co. 30-27 in the 1996 Playoffs, in terms of a non-Super Bowl upset (thus Jets, Pats and Giants don't count). We can get into writing off the Seahawks next week and the discussion on whether 7-9 teams should host playoff games can be tabled for the future, but for now, Seattle's on top of the world.

The Seahawks would need to share a spot with Rex Ryan, who finally gets his win over Peyton Manning and his Colts. Of course, he was given this win on a timeout call by Jim Caldwell that was Chris Webber-level bad. The Jets were going to take their chances on a 50 yard field goal. I don't have to remind Jets fans on how Herm Edwards did the exact same thing against the Steelers in the 2004 Playoffs and Doug Brien proceeded to miss the winning field goal. Caldwell gave the Jets a chance to reconsider and Mark Sanchez found Braylon Edwards at the 15, setting up a 32 yard winner for Nick Folk. Sanchez deserves credit for making that throw, because he was awful yesterday. He overthrew receiver after receiver and cost the Jets points at halftime with his interception. The Jets, smartly, ran much of the second half and dominated the line of scrimmage. As for the Colts, Peyton was able to move the ball but couldn't get into the end zone except the long TD to Pierre Garcon. The Jets defense deserves credit for daring Manning to run the ball and Manning obliged for the most part. Still, Manning in a tough game put the Colts in a position to win and maybe they do if the Colts can stop Cromartie's return or if Caldwell lets the Jets take the field goal from 50 yards.

Onto the picks with the first game in Kansas City with the Chiefs hosting the Ravens. I thought the Chiefs had a better than punchers chance to win and the Seahawks winning makes a Chiefs win more possible. The Ravens are capable of beating anyone in the AFC, might be the best team on paper in the AFC. The problem is the Ravens all year when playing a big game seem to come small in a close game.

Ravens will win if: They do exactly what they did to the Dolphins in this playoff game two years ago, and to a lesser extent last year to New England, which is control tempo on the road against an inferior team (I go lesser with the Pats because I didn't find them inferior). The Chiefs running game would have to be stopped and Matt Cassel needs to be blitzed. Flacco just needs to control the offense, not turn the ball over and not panic late.

Chiefs will win if: They can run with Jamaal Charles and the crowd can disrupt the Ravens. Cassel would need to be upright and make a couple of plays. The Chiefs defense would also need to control the line of scrimmage and not allow big days from Flacco or Ray Rice.

My pick: I picked the Chiefs to make the playoffs back in start of the year. I would love to pick them today and I probably would if the game started at 4:30. The Ravens tend to play great on the 1pm Wild Card game. Plus, the only time the Ravens lost in the Wild Card round, the memorable Anthony Wright was the starting QB. So the Ravens (-3.5) will win today 20-10.

Now to the main event of the weekend, the Packers and the Eagles. The Packers soared in the last two games, while the Eagles slumped. Both teams have great QB play, with Aaron Rodgers appearing conventional but can break a run when necessary and Michael Vick ready to run, but more willing to throw in the pocket than in the past. Both teams have great receivers, Eagles are more likely to go deep, Packers can do both intermediate and deep very well. The Packers defense is better (the best one left in the NFC), while the Eagles run the ball better. Something's gotta give.

Packers will win if: They can blitz Vick for the full game and make him uncomfortable. This is a huge game for Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and the Packers defense. They have to stop LeSean McCoy and not let Vick find DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin deep. Offensively, Rodgers needs to thrive against an average Eagles defense, but at the very least to avoid killer interceptions.

Eagles will win if: Vick can run wild and Jackson makes two or three big plays. Also, if Rodgers can turn the ball over (likely meaning a big day for Asante Samuel) and can't throw in the wind today, the Eagles should win. McCoy running for over 100 yards would help as well.

My pick: Forget about the collapse, the Giants showed everyone how to contain Michael Vick, with a strong pass rush and avoid leaving contain. The Bears, Cowboys and Vikings all did the same. The Packers have the athletes to do the same, forget the first matchup as the Packers didn't gameplan Vick. Rodgers will make enough plays and I find a lower scoring game than most people think. Packers win 27-20.